Can the Twins Unlock RHP A.J. Alexy?

To say last week's signing of right-handed pitcher A.J. Alexy to a minor-league contract received little fanfare would be an understatement. As best I can tell, no beat writers so much as tweeted about the move, much less was there any formal team announcement. MLB Trade Rumors posted about the signing after noticing it listed in the transactions on Alexy's MLB player page.

Still, if the name sounds familiar, it's because he spent a couple of weeks on Minnesota's 40-man roster last offseason. For that and a few other reasons, I think this pickup deserves a bit more examination than the standard flier on a minor-league arm.

Last winter, Alexy experienced a bit of a whirlwind, illustrating the challenging nature of being a fringe MLB talent but also demonstrating the level of intrigue his arm offered in the eyes of MLB front offices. On December 9th, he was designated for assignment by the Texas Rangers, making room on the roster for free agent signing Andrew Heaney. On waivers, Alexy was quickly gobbled up, with the Washington Nationals claiming him four days later. There too Alexy became the odd man out, receiving a DFA when the Nats signed Dominic Smith on January 4th. 

At this point the Minnesota Twins made their move, acquiring Alexy on January 10th in exchange for a pitcher named Cristian Jimenez. While hardly a real prospect, the fact that Minnesota had to trade anyone for Alexy to extract him from waivers suggested there was some competition for him. 

Two weeks later, Alexy once again became the odd man out in a new org, waived by the Twins to make room for Michael A. Taylor when they traded for him on January 23rd. Back on waivers for a third time in six weeks, the righty was claimed this time by the Chicago White Sox, where he would end up spending most of his 2023 season.

What a season it was. Not in a good way. Alexy made 16 appearances for Chicago's Triple-A affiliate in Charlotte, posting a 12.00 ERA while issuing an astonishing 41 walks in 21 innings. Yes, that's about two per inning on average. In his first outing for the Knights, he walked seven of 11 batters faced. In his last, on June 28th, he walked five of seven. At that point he was released before catching on with the independent Southern Maryland Blue Crabs, where he posted an 11.81 ERA in six appearances and was quickly released again.

Unsurprisingly, Alexy was in much lower demand this offseason. But in spite of his complete derailment last year, the Twins aren't ready to get off the A.J. Alexy train. Last Tuesday the Twins signed the 25-year-old to a minor-league contract, bringing him into the fold without requiring a roster spot. It's unclear at this time if he'll get a spring training invite.

While it may well turn into nothing, Alexy strikes me as being worth a deeper look, for a couple of key reasons:

1. The front office has added him in consecutive offseasons, so clearly they see something in the right-hander. And as recently as last winter, they were far from alone.
2. The Twins lost a key piece of their bullpen to free agency in Emilio Pagán; given their financial constraints and needs elsewhere, it's likely that under-the-radar and non-roster acquisitions like these will be counted on to help replenish and bolster the unit.

So now that we've pretty clearly established what is NOT to like about Alexy, let's explore some of the qualities that potentially make him appealing to Minnesota's front office.

What Do the Twins See in A.J. Alexy?
Long ago, Alexy was viewed as a very promising pitching prospect. The Dodgers, who'd drafted him in the 11th round out of a Pennsylvania high school in 2016, traded him one year later alongside fellow minor-leaguers Willie Calhoun and Brendon Davis to acquire Yu Darvish from Texas at the deadline. At the time, Alexy was ranked as the No. 17 prospect in LA's system, described as having "an above-average fastball and curve," and "plenty of projection in his 6-foot-4, 195-pound frame." ("Projection" is a word that should make your Falvey Senses tingle.)

For a time, it was beginning to look like Alexy might be the only member of that prospect package to pan out for Texas. In 2021 he enjoyed a breakthrough season in the high minors, posting a 1.66 ERA with 10.5 K/9 in 65 innings as a reliever between Double-A and Triple-A. 

"A.J. has battled injuries, but he's in a really good spot now," said Rangers Director of Minor League Operations Paul Kruger that summer. "He's under control with his delivery and has a good idea what he wants to do. I like how he's repeating what he's doing. There's a good feel for the breaking ball and fastball."

Said Alexy at the time, "I am attacking the strike zone and I'll take my odds with the guys playing behind me."

His words might feel a bit ironic in light of what we know now – since the 2021 season, Alexy has handed out 134 free passes in 152 ⅓ innings for a 7.9 BB/9 rate – but his performance and those quotes illustrate an important truth: at that point, they had it figured out. And when he was able to throw the ball where he wanted, Alexy was a pretty successful pitcher.

The Rangers actually called him up late that season and gave him a chance to start, with Alexy delivering 11 innings of shutout, two-hit ball in his first two outings before things unraveled a bit in September. Here he is striking out Shohei Ohtani:

In 2022, Alexy took a big step back, struggling to find stability as he moved from rotation to bullpen, minors to majors, role to role. The down year led to his tumultuous offseason, and then was followed by faith-shattering campaign in the White Sox system. At the same time, he's still only 25 years old, a little younger than Jhoan Durán, and the track record of success is there. 

Paul Kruger's quote above – "He's under control with his delivery ... I like how he's repeating what he's doing" – seems to suggest that there was a major focus on mechanics and consistency. Can the Twins circle back and find something that works? Coming off a spectacular year on the mound as a team, Pete Maki and Co. have earned some confidence in this regard. And clearly they are confident that Alexy is an arm they can still do something with.