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Even before they openly laid out their self-imposed payroll restrictions for this offseason, it was reasonable to guess that the Twins front office wasn't going to invest heavily in bullpen additions. Because... they never do. Two offseasons ago, they made one low-wattage addition to the relief corps on a major-league deal (Joe Smith). Last offseason, they made zero.
When trying to acquire relief pitchers at a discount (or on a non-guaranteed contract, or off waivers), you're going to need to accept an added level of volatility beyond what the position already entails. The Twins are accustomed to this. They love to try their hand with talented yet flawed relievers discarded by other organizations, and it appears they're at it again this winter.
Their three latest bullpen acquisitions share a clear and consistent profile: big arms with high-powered stuff and really significant control problems. It is apparent that the Twins and their coaches believe they can help these guys find the strike zone.
First, there was the signing of righthander A.J. Alexy to a minor-league deal before the holidays. I wrote about this move to bring back a pitcher whom the club rostered for a few weeks the previous offseason, pondering what they saw in him. Alexy's struggles with walks last year were beyond extreme: he issued a staggering 41 free passes in 21 innings at Triple A. For his career, he has yielded 5.6 free passes per nine innings pitched in the minors and 26 walks in 30 major-league innings.
Okay, a minor-league signing. A shot in the dark. The Twins have little to lose with what is seemingly a low-stakes longshot.
Then, they signed former Royals reliever Josh Staumont to a major-league deal. Here, too, the risk was relatively minimal--his salary is barely over the minimum at $950,000--but he is now near the front of the line for an Opening Day bullpen spot, despite his own recent troubles with throwing strikes.
The hard-throwing Staumont has always been a little wild, but at his best, he kept the walks somewhat in check and offset their negative impact with effectiveness elsewhere. From 2019 through 2021, the right-hander posted a 2.93 ERA in 110 innings, despite averaging 4.3 walks per nine frames.
In the past two years, his control has spiraled and his results have tanked. In 57 ⅔ innings between 2022 and 2023, Staumont issued 42 walks (6.6 BB/9). In November, he was non-tendered by the lowly Royals, which is a striking vote of no-confidence from the organization that raised him. Minnesota's leadership evidently sees a path to getting him right.
Most recently, we have Thursday's waiver claim: Ryan Jensen, who has captivated evaluators with his arm talent but been held back by--you guessed it--his control. The 26-year-old has yet to reach the majors, but has averaged 5.8 walks per nine innings in 215 minor-league innings. His struggles in this regard were especially profound last year, when he issued 54 walks in 64 ⅓ innings (7.6 BB/9) between Double A and Triple A. At the same time, he also notched 78 strikeouts, with only six homers allowed.
Each of these relief pitchers has plainly evident upside that seems almost impossible to reach in their current state. It's an interesting direction for a team whose pitching staff thrived last year largely because of their strength in this area; Minnesota's 2.7 BB/9 rate ranked fourth in the majors. I'm very curious what their pitching brain trust has in mind for these hurlers.
Notably, there is evidence in each case that mechanical tweaks could be part of the solution. Repeating his delivery has been a known focus for Alexy over the years. Staumont was sent to Triple A at the start of last season to work on "refining his mechanics and improving his pitch selection."
“A lot of it was just kind of tweaking little things here and there, trying to make sure that we’re being as consistent as possible,” Staumont said at the time.
Jensen also has been mechanically workshopped by his coaches to try and achieve better control of the strike zone. This included time spent on the development list in 2022 to try and shorten his arm stroke. "The primary focus right now is getting that delivery right. If he can do that and in turn be in the zone or at least around the zone more often, the stuff will certainly play," wrote The Athletic's Sahadev Sharma regarding Jensen prior to last season.
It's an interesting gamble by the Twins, and it sets up a challenge for their staff in spring training. If coaches and technology can find a way to help even one of these three pitchers solve their overwhelming control problems, the Twins could really have something. But the Nuke LaLoosh profile is ubiquitous in baseball, and these oft-attempted projects generally have very low success rates.
We'll see what the Twins have up their sleeves.
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