Moving Louie Varland to the Bullpen would be Malpractice

[Greggory Masterson]

We all saw what he could do in the pen. It’s tempting, but it’s not the time.

Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

 

It’s frankly a compliment to the Twins’ front office, amateur scouts, and player development that we’re even having this discussion. As a 15th-round pick in 2019, the bar was pretty low, but he’s vaulted over it, and now coaches and executives have a tricky question: let him continue to develop as a starter or turn him loose in the bullpen.

Although Louie Varland was a relative unknown coming out of the draft, he has worked hard behind the scenes to add velocity to his fastball—which sat in the low 90s on draft day but now averages 95—and develop usable breaking pitches to add to his excellent control and extension.

He’s already had some success as both a starter and a reliever. Through his first 12 career starts between 2022 and 2023, he had a sub-4.00 ERA, though his FIP was about a run higher than that due to a homerun per nine innings rate of nearly 2.00. The wheels came off in his final three starts, giving up 17 runs and five home runs in 15 innings with an opposing OPS of 1.101.

Varland returned to St. Paul and stayed at the Twins’ Triple-A affiliate from June 18th until September 6th. Upon his return, a new Louie Varland was at manager Rocco Baldelli’s disposal, slinging his fastball up to the high 90s and touching 100. Over 12 relief innings, struck 17 batters out, holding them to a .471 OPS and allowing just two runs (1.50 ERA).

In addition to pumping his fastball velocity, working out of the bullpen has also allowed him to rely more heavily on his fastball. Since leaving Division II Concordia-St. Paul with only a fastball, he’s experimented with several off-speed pitches to mixed results. If he’s a reliever, there will be less emphasis on developing those secondary pitches, which is another tick in favor of leaving him in the pen.

However, there are two reasons that Varland should not be moved to the bullpen—just yet.

First, he deserves one more shot at being a starter—something he’s openly opined for himself—and the Twins need to ensure they don’t start the permanent transition too early. Does Varland project as a frontline starter? No. At present, he seems like a competent backend option. Depending on his ceiling in the bullpen, there’s absolutely a case to be made that he would be more valuable in the eighth inning.

However, the starting option should be exhausted before that move is made. With few exceptions, pitchers do not return from the bullpen to the rotation. If Varland can get his changeup or slider up to an above-league-average pitch, or if he further develops his cutter, he could have a role as a mid-rotation starter, and those do not grow on trees.

There are often two reasons a career starter is permanently moved to the bullpen—ineffectiveness and injury. Current Twins examples include Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran, respectively. Jax was cartoonishly ineffective as a 26-year-old rookie starter in 2022 (after the first time through the order), but his fastball and slider played enough to warrant work in the pen. Duran endured several injuries as a starter, and his raw stuff was begging for an MLB job anyway.

Varland fits neither of those camps. Again, if he is revealed to be no more than a backend option, it’s probably time to let him cook as a reliever. However, given the time and effort he’s expended to get to the spot he’s in, few would be surprised if he took one more step and could be a mid-rotation arm. But to figure that out, the team must keep the toothpaste in the tube.

The second reason is more practical and logistical. The Twins don’t have the depth right now to remove him from the mix. All indications suggest that the team will acquire another starter this offseason, bumping Varland out of the rotation, but as recent history indicates, teams need more than five MLB starters.

Varland can slide into the next-man-up position occupied by Bailey Ober in 2023, on call in St. Paul until a rotation spot opens up—which is inevitable in modern MLB. He would be moved up from the seventh option that he occupied in 2023, a position that gave him 10 starts—and probably would have given him more opportunities were it not for Dallas Keuchel’s emergence as A Man Who Throws Innings midseason.

Currently behind Varland on that depth chart are arms like Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, Brent Headrick, and Randy Dobnak. You might have your favorite of that lot, but if forced up to the sixth option—which meant 26 starts for Bailey Ober last year—there’s reason to be worried about the rotation. Keeping Varland there and giving the other options more time to separate themselves in St. Paul, or simply continue to develop, is the safest course of action.

Another option is bringing in a veteran to occupy that sixth spot, which would make keeping Varland on standby less of a necessity, but that, too, is a logistic hard bargain. In order to bring a veteran in to sit in Triple-A, the organization probably needs to find a player with no offers to join a big-league team out of camp. That caliber of player is someone like late-career-Keuchel, Chi Chi Gonzalez, Aaron Sanchez, or Jose De Leon.

None of those names inspire the same amount of confidence that Varland does. Bringing in someone with an opt-out for that position may raise the ceiling a bit on the type of veteran who can be stashed in St. Paul, but that’s still someone like 2020’s Jhoulys Chacín (who did, in fact, opt out before the Twins had reason to call him up.

If starting pitching doesn’t work out for Varland in 2024, there’s plenty of room for him to transition. Shoot, even if he is an effective starter, he can still be bumped down to the pen in September for the playoff run, similar to how Kenta Maeda was handled in Los Angeles. It’s just not time to force it today.

 

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[tony&rodney]

Totally agree. Varland is a perfect #4 starter because he can pitch effective innings ahead of Chris Paddack whose innings will need to be controlled to some extent. In a best case scenario, Varland pitches 180+ innings with an ERA around 4.25 - 4.50.

[chpettit19]

I agree the best 2024 plan for the rotation is to bring in a veteran starter who can slot in towards the top of the rotation and push Varland into the 6th spot in the rotation. I also think this is his last year to prove he deserves a rotation spot on opening day in 2025. The hope would be that one of the other high-minors guys are able to step up and lay claim to the #6 spot in 2025 and provide the same kind of depth that Varland should in 2024, and that allows Varland to go to the pen where he can be a real weapon. If he doesn't do enough in 2024 to be considered a real rotation piece in 2025 it's probably the end of the line for him as a starter. But he's the best option for the #6 role in 2024, and he should have every opportunity to turn that into a rotation job in 2025.

[mikelink45]

I do not like the look of the list behind Varland  

[Blyleven2011]

Varland is a very hard worker and has progressed at all levels , yes He lacks  quality secondary pitchers but with hard work  he could perfect a couple and be a solid option  ...

I say if we don't sign a quality pitcher , give varland 10 starts this year and see where he's at , if he succeeds leave him be  ...

If we sign a quality starter , put varland in the bullpen  but keep him stretched out in long relief ...

Then I'd probably give him one last try as a starter in 2025  ...

[Karbo]

IMO the Twins would need to get at least 2 more starters before I move Varland to the pen. 1 two or three slot probably thru trade, and 1 quality back end of the rotation, maybe somebody coming back from an injury. thru free agency.

[Riverbrian]

Right now... Varland is one of our top five starters.

I get he is throwing 100 out of the pen however... just thinking of Varland for the bullpen without someone better than him coming in to join the rotation is kinda crazy.  

Starters throw more innings. 

On December 26, 2023... Varland is one of our top 5 starters. Gotta find someone better than him before the pen talk can make sense.   

[Doctor Gast]

Quote

The wheels came off in his final three starts, giving up 17 runs and five home runs in 15 innings with an opposing OPS of 1.101.

Varland is a rookie, you can't expect him to pitch the same as seasoned veterans. He needs to be brought along slowly at the MLB level. So I recommend using Paddack & Varland in a piggyback system.  This system worked well with Perez & Pineda until they quit & overused Perez. This system will help both Paddack & Varland. If Varland is thrown into the rotation & required to throw 6+ innings, he is susceptible to inefficiency & injury much like what happened to Ober.  

[DJL44]

I am okay with trying Varland in the rotation. He's plenty good enough to be a 5th starter for many teams. The 6th starter will get innings - no team keeps 5 starting pitchers healthy for all of their starts.

The worst malpractice would be for Varland to spend the entire season in AAA. He's going to be 26 years old. Wasting one of his prime seasons in the minors would be sad. If he's bumped down to the 7th starter by major leaguers who don't have options they should move him to the bullpen. Pitchers only get so many healthy innings in their career.

[Cory Engelhardt]

My hope/expectation still is that they trade for a playoff level starter. I also hope that they look at bringing in someone like Frankie Montas (or similar) on a 1 year type deal.

I think Varland is a good #5 starter. I think he is a weapon as a setup man. Frankly he might be our 2nd best reliever behind Duran.

I don't think it is malpractice if he is a high leverage setup man. I'm happy he will be on the Twins in 2024.

[ashbury]

Varland needs to go to St Paul as a starter and demonstrate he can dominate AAA hitters, and that he is ready to compete against the major leaguers, better than he did in 2023.  This in turn means acquiring someone else who already projects to do better than 2023 Varland.

I'm not down on Varland, but it's an assumption that he will still improve, and 2023 wasn't championship caliber yet.

[mnfireman]

59 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Varland is a rookie,   

Not according to Baseball Reference. FanGraphs also shows him with only 2 minor league options left. But right now I pencil him in as #5, first to go to AAA if the team signs a "better" option, first to be recalled due to injury or ineffectiveness.

[Brandon]

1 hour ago, mnfireman said:

Not according to Baseball Reference. FanGraphs also shows him with only 2 minor league options left. But right now I pencil him in as #5, first to go to AAA if the team signs a "better" option, first to be recalled due to injury or ineffectiveness.

Last year he was a rookie.  Now he has around 100 innings under his belt.  

[darin617]

Isn't the title wrong? Varland was in the bullpen last year. So shouldn't it be more like not moving Varland back to the rotation is a mistake.

[DocBauer]

Just to be clear, the kid has flashed, both in 5 games in 2022 and his first 5 games in 2023. Solid, combined ERA below 4 and some solid K numbers. His final 3 starts in 2023 is where the wheels came off, skewing his final numbers somewhat, ironic that those 3 games came on the heels of a dominate 7 IP gem against the Astros.

He began 2023 as a rookie. I never expect a rookie to be polished and ready to be their complete selves from day one. (Nor should anyone).

When sent back to St Paul, he continued to put in the work. I believe it was his cutter that was added or tweaked, I can't recall exactly right now. And that pitch seemed to really take off after his recall. 

Do I think he could by dynamite in the pen? Yes. But that assumption is based on talent and SSS. I also happen to believe his talent, and the larger SS I've seen shows he has real potential as a back end starter, maybe even a #3 if his 3rd and 4th pitch can remain consistent. 

I don't say "never move him". But with the rotation needing depth, and him showing nothing negative to indicate he can't be a quality starter, that's where he should stay for now.

He gets surpassed but others, or DOESN'T show improvement in his consistency, then by all means, transition him to the pen. But not now.

[Doctor Gast]

2 hours ago, mnfireman said:

Not according to Baseball Reference. FanGraphs also shows him with only 2 minor league options left. But right now I pencil him in as #5, first to go to AAA if the team signs a "better" option, first to be recalled due to injury or ineffectiveness.

You are nitpicking. Varland hasn't come close to putting in a full season as a SP, so he's still a rookie in my book, much like the comparison I gave of Ober in '22. He's MLB ready so why waste time with him pitching at AAA? We need him pitching on the main club & have him slowly vamp up to pitching  5 innings. So what do we do with Paddack? Do we have him pitch down at AAA too until he's completely vamped up? No, the best solution is the piggyback system, again Pineda/ Perez worked great, don't mess with something that works.

[Greggory Masterson]

50 minutes ago, darin617 said:

Isn't the title wrong? Varland was in the bullpen last year. So shouldn't it be more like not moving Varland back to the rotation is a mistake.

All the title needs is the word “Permanently,” but it was already wordy enough, so I took that out.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

You are nitpicking. Varland hasn't come close to putting in a full season as a SP, so he's still a rookie in my book

You can write whatever book you want, but he is ineligible for the Rookie of the Year award going forward, so using a word differently than MLB does is begging for misunderstanding.

[mnfireman]

5 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Varland is a very hard worker and has progressed at all levels 

High school wrestler mentality... 

[Hubie29]

6 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Totally agree. Varland is a perfect #4 starter because he can pitch effective innings ahead of Chris Paddack whose innings will need to be controlled to some extent. In a best case scenario, Varland pitches 180+ innings with an ERA around 4.25 - 4.50.

Ideally you trade for or sign someone for the top three spots in the rotation so you can use Varland in the bullpen or send him to StPaul for insurance.  Varland as your fourth starter does not bode well for this team in 2024. He has not proved he is even major league ready for the long haul. 4.40-1.22 ERA/WHIP and almost 2HR/9 career stats don't scream "save a rotation spot for me".  Hopefully we can do better. 

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

You can write whatever book you want, but he is ineligible for the Rookie of the Year award going forward, so using a word differently than MLB does is begging for misunderstanding.

I'm sorry this discussion isn't about Varland's eligibility for the ROY award, it's about his need to gain experience & stamina to be a full-fledged MLB SP so please stop distracting from that.

[Fatbat]

I am very excited to see Varland develop his off speed pitches. He will be a mid rotation guy as soon as that wipeout pitch is there to use at any time he needs it. We can find other guys to pitch the 7th and 8th.

[ashbury]

43 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'm sorry this discussion isn't about Varland's eligibility for the ROY award, it's about his need to gain experience & stamina to be a full-fledged MLB SP so please stop distracting from that.

You brought up the status, so accept the correction gracefully.  Or not, but then accept the pushback.  Your choice.

First Rule of Holes: when you find yourself in one, stop digging.

[ValleySpringsFan]

Nice analysis, thanks. And a very nice turn of phrase: " . . . the team must keep the toothpaste in the tube."

[Doctor Gast]

17 minutes ago, ashbury said:

You brought up the status, so accept the correction gracefully.  Or not, but then accept the pushback.  Your choice.

First Rule of Holes: when you find yourself in one, stop digging.

OK, he's not technically a rookie, so what? His status is not the point I was making. Why do you keep focusing on one point that has nothing to do with what I said & miss the main point? Please read everything that I texted & throw out the word "rookie" because it seems that you are hung up on that word.

[DocBauer]

2 hours ago, Hubie29 said:

Ideally you trade for or sign someone for the top three spots in the rotation so you can use Varland in the bullpen or send him to StPaul for insurance.  Varland as your fourth starter does not bode well for this team in 2024. He has not proved he is even major league ready for the long haul. 4.40-1.22 ERA/WHIP and almost 2HR/9 career stats don't scream "save a rotation spot for me".  Hopefully we can do better. 

So here's the thing, by virtually EVERYONE'S opinion...barring a huge surprise...the Twins will look to add a quality SP for 2024 similar to adding Lopez last year. Just like it WASN'T an insult to Ober last year, it is no insult to Varland that they want to add for 2024 to have that 6th SP "in their pocket" because EVERYONE needs more than 5 SP through the course of a season.

Sometimes you get very, very lucky and only need about 7 at some point. And, unfortunately, sometimes you get very unlucky and have a run of injuries and need more. But even the healthiest teams sometimes need that temporary fill in starter, or that double header add, etc.

I don't have every number at my grasp right now, but if you look at Varland's 2022 numbers, and the first 5 starts to 2023, he was looking pretty damn good. His final numbers in 3 poor 2023 starts skew his overall performance thus far.

Has he proven he's a legitimate ML, potential mid rotation starter? Not yet with about 100 IP. But if you look hard at Baseball Reference...which I did a few weeks ago when this same topic was brought up...you would see a young hurler on a very solid 10 game stretch before 3 bad games. And yet again, the best start of his young career was a 7 IP, dominant, performance against the Astros in 2023 before he suddenly lost some control and the HR came in bunches.

And yet again, the cutter looked different when he came up late last year. If his slider and change can be just a little more consistent, he might just be a #3. And he's got value as a #4 as well.

But if the rotation is good enough, strong enough, and he DOESN'T grab hold of opportunity when it presents itself, YES, by all means, he should be in the pen. 

But to begin 2024, I've sure seen enough to keep him as the 6th SP in waiting the same way Ober was in 2023.

[Jocko87]

There are no bad answers here. Varland will give quality innings as a starter for several months and unless he looks like a game 2 or 3 playoff starter he will slot to the bullpen in September.  Best of both worlds and good outcomes either way.   Quality production in the regular season and a weapon in the playoffs.  Best case is, holy cow, we want him starting in the playoffs. 

Don't look at this as an either or question. It’s the perfect situation for maximizing player value. 

[beckmt]

How many games did the bullpen blow in the 7th and 8th innings last year, because it was not deep enough handle the innings.  Unless you are sure that Alcala can fill the extra spot needed, Varland must be there, we can't afford the number of games we have blown the last two years.

[mnfireman]

23 minutes ago, beckmt said:

How many games did the bullpen blow in the 7th and 8th innings last year, because it was not deep enough handle the innings.  Unless you are sure that Alcala can fill the extra spot needed, Varland must be there, we can't afford the number of games we have blown the last two years.

Twins ERA in innings 7-9 was 2.55. The slash line was .233/.317/.402 (.719 OPS). I don't think the bullpen was the weakest link most fans remembered.

[Cory Engelhardt]

5 hours ago, Hubie29 said:

Ideally you trade for or sign someone for the top three spots in the rotation so you can use Varland in the bullpen or send him to StPaul for insurance.  Varland as your fourth starter does not bode well for this team in 2024. He has not proved he is even major league ready for the long haul. 4.40-1.22 ERA/WHIP and almost 2HR/9 career stats don't scream "save a rotation spot for me".  Hopefully we can do better. 

Varland in St. Paul any longer is absolutely malpractice