What Defines Success for Byron Buxton in 2024?

[RpR]

82 games in Center Field and 30 home runs.

[TopGunn#22]

Whitey & Hosken Powell are possibly a little harsh in their assessment but honesty is the best policy.  The Twins should "COUNT" on absolutely nothing from Buxton in 2024.  Whatever they get should be considered a BONUS.  Now, this could be a pretty significant bonus depending on what he's actually able to do, but to plan on him as a key contributor is managerial malpractice. 

Once the Twins have made their move to fill their rotation holes the CF position must be addressed.  I've advocated a signing of Adam Duval as he provides solid defense in CF (and LF & RF as well) and a RH power bat.  I think it's safe to count on Correa being "better" in 2024 as compared to 2023.  His whole track record suggests that.  Buxton's track record is that he's off the field more than he's on the field. 

But I agree that he MUST be able to play the field.  His Platinum Glove level defense is a HUGE part of his value and the WAR he accrues.  I'm not in favor of moving him to a corner OF position.  He's a CF.  That's where he's most comfortable.  As long as he has his speed, he should be in CF.  I wouldn't want to etch in stone how many games he needs to play in CF but I feel as if 80-81 (half of the season) is a reasonable expectation and a necessary expectation.  80 in CF and another 20-40 at DH.  Buxton can't do much worse than last season.  He could very well do "as poorly" as last year, but I don't think it's unrealistic to expect some kind of improvement. 

But it is vital to come up with an Adam Duval, Nick Senzel, maybe a Garrett Mitchell type of "Plan B" who may have to play A LOT of CF.  I think Castro can more than adequately cover innings in CF and Martin could also turn out to be a solid option.  But some type of veteran needs to be added just to hedge their bet. 

The Twins will need better seasons in 2024 from both Correa and Buxton.  Correa is, to me a sure thing.  Buxton, very much uncertain.  Hope for the best.  But have a plan this coming season just in case.   

[darin617]

Have him get knee surgery and shoot him full of every banned substance and hope something speeds up the recovery time and basically write of 2024. Then hope you can get a couple of good years out of him.

[TNtwins85]

1 hour ago, Dennesey55347 said:

Trading him for a starting pitcher. Unless of course we want to revisit this question for the 10th time next off-season.

The only starter we’re gonna get for Buxton at this point lives in somebody’s A ball system somewhere. Unless the Twins cover his salary for the next 5 years maybe we get a 4th or 5th starter. At this point they’re stuck with him so they at least have to try to maximize his ability to stay healthy and hope they get 2WAR or better.

[Schmoeman5]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

82 games in Center Field and 30 home runs.

81 games in CF and 29 homers would be a bust 

[mnfireman]

2 hours ago, Dennesey55347 said:

Trading him for a starting pitcher. Unless of course we want to revisit this question for the 10th time next off-season.

Well, there's that pesky no-trade clause to work around, and after it expires he will have 10 & 5 rights...

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Schmoeman5 said:

81 games in CF and 29 homers would be a bust 

Congratulations on satirically identifying a flaw in human communications (internet or not): sharply defining fuzzy definitions.  (Equally effective in grinding useful discussion to a halt is fuzzying up sharp definitions.)

Aside from that, "Success for Byron Buxton" has at least two meanings.  Contributing to team success is one, but living up to the potential most of us once believed in is another.  WAR and its relative Win Above Average do well for setting a threshold of the former - if he's an above average player by WAA then he can be a success even if his WAR is lowish due to time away for injury.  And he needs to time his health for productivity in a possible playoff run,

But for his legacy, I hope for him to exceed the 131 games he started in CF as a 23-year old, combined with excellent batting stats.  I'm not sure that is plausible for 2024 but would be a hallmark of success to me.

[Brandon]

2 WAR is what he is getting paid for so 3.0 WAR is a better starting point for success.  If he can hit 6. WAR even better.  
As far as playing goes we’ll start with 90 games in CF and 20 at DH and go up from there.  I would like to see him magically play 120 maybe 125 in CF and 20 give or take at DH..  

[Richie the Rally Goat]

6 hours ago, jjswol said:

I would say 130+ games played in the outfield, doesn't even have to be in center field. An easy goal to achieve for most players.

In 2023 218 players logged 100 innings in the outfield. 39 of them played in 130 games or more. 
 

Max Kepler was 45th at 124 games.

number 90 (30 teams times 3 outfielders) is 89 games.

your threshold for “easy” might need to be re-calibrated. 

if Buxton played 90 games in the outfield, I’d be thrilled. He won’t, and realism might be 45 or fewer.

honestly, I just hope for his sake and ours that he doesn’t limp to the plate all season 

 

[Schmoeman5]

What I remember was Byron Buxton had a pretty good April and started falling off dramatically in early May. I don't want to use arbitrary numbers for games played or homeruns simply because you can't based on history. If he can sustain his April 2023 numbers for however many games it will be a positive. It was the how he still tried to go out there everyday and see him struggle so mightily. It was painful to watch. The fact that he kept going might be noble, yet it's not necessarily what's good for him or the team. Does he need to be told when it's time to sit for his own benefit? It seems that way to me. He talked his way on to the playoff roster albeit for 1 AB. But that's a different topic.

[JD-TWINS]

7 hours ago, danielp19653 said:

Anything over 80 games in the field is way beyond wishful thinking, I'd call a success 80 games in CF and another 40-50 at DH while seeing his OPS+ get back to the 120+ area. There's absolutely 0 chance we ever see Buxton in center for more than half a season with the amount of damage he's accumulated on his body.

So, IMO, everyone through the first 10 comments is shooting too high. (I doubt many teams have an average of 2 guys that play 140 games/year) Buxton has averaged less than 70 games per year over 9 seasons. This is the history of his TWENTIES!

If he can play 120 games, that’s 1.5 game days off per week, and obviously all the travel days off as well - that would be a great high end goal. (1 day off week one - 2 days off week two & so on)

30-40 games in CF and 80-90 games at DH.

Buxton’s complaints about DHing are due to frustration to not be able to help the team if he’s not hitting - suck it up and deal with it - need to contribute at the plate, principally!

He didn’t perform well last year at DH because he was hurt essentially all year. Nobody hits well without their legs under them.

He had 17 HR & 17 doubles in 86 games (a few of those were games as a pinch hitter) and he was hurt. He hits 25 of each easily in 110-120 games, if generally healthy. Twins have plenty of options to catch fly balls in CF - maybe not as exciting but “exciting” doesn’t get the club into the playoffs. They need Buxton healthy and available to play wherever needed in October!

[the_brute_squad]

The Twins had a generational player. One with every tool a shot and team desires. He could have been a Ricky Henderson / Tim Raines player with a Kirby Puckett defensive skill set. High avg, power,  situational hitting 

Instead, the Twins brain trust says "don't worry about how the game has been played with players of your talent for over a century, focus on home runs." 

Wasted talent. Bad advice. Trade him to a team that appreciates how the game should be played. 

 

[David Maro]

If he is not in CF game 1 of ST its time to cut bait.Can't wait for him to be healthy again for another year.His body isn't built to play baseball.It will be time for the FO to draw up retirement plans for him.They can make him a minor league coach,so at least the money he's owed they get something in return.

[Jham]

Pass a physical and bring an average return in trade. Twins are shredding payroll. Buxton is reasonably priced if he can show a team he's healthy-ish.

[joefish]

Playing every day that he is healthy. Rest only as needed. Hitting like we know he can. Running like we know he can. Throwing like we know he can.  That would be a success. 

[SteveLV]

You have to wonder whether a team like the Giants or Phillies might take a flyer on him.  Deep pockets, can afford the risk.

Don't want him in the American League where he could haunt us.

But it seems unlikely he would agree on a trade, but you never know....

So sad to see him struggle with health.

[mnfireman]

2 hours ago, Jham said:

Pass a physical and bring an average return in trade. Twins are shredding payroll. Buxton is reasonably priced if he can show a team he's healthy-ish.

 

1 hour ago, SteveLV said:

You have to wonder whether a team like the Giants or Phillies might take a flyer on him.  Deep pockets, can afford the risk.

Don't want him in the American League where he could haunt us.

But it seems unlikely he would agree on a trade, but you never know....

So sad to see him struggle with health.

He has a No-Trade clause....and then he gets 10 & 5 rights. He is not going anywhere unless he approaches the team for a trade to a team of HIS choice, and that team would then have to be willing to give the Twins what they want.

[Fatbat]

I think a few people didn’t read this post the way it was intended. At age 30, a successful season for Buxton should be nothing short of an Allstar season and MVP talk from game 1 to game 180. Its not his fault that injuries have derailed his career.  Its a bit late to ask for 100 games of semi mediocre results from a healthy, grown man. He has put in his time with the medical and training/rehab experts, its time to expect expert results from a 5 tool guy.  Actual success, even for him, shouldn't be showing up to participate. Success for Buxton in ‘24 should be putting on a show.  
I said what I said. MVP talk all season long. 

[Fatbat]

15 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

What I remember was Byron Buxton had a pretty good April and started falling off dramatically in early May. I don't want to use arbitrary numbers for games played or homeruns simply because you can't based on history. If he can sustain his April 2023 numbers for however many games it will be a positive. It was the how he still tried to go out there everyday and see him struggle so mightily. It was painful to watch. The fact that he kept going might be noble, yet it's not necessarily what's good for him or the team. Does he need to be told when it's time to sit for his own benefit? It seems that way to me. He talked his way on to the playoff roster albeit for 1 AB. But that's a different topic.

It’s tough for these guys not to play hurt. Even C4 showed up barely able to walk some days but after getting treatment, he would be out on the field, playing hurt and GDP’ng more than ever. Health will bring better results and more success in ‘24! 

[SteveLV]

We all know he has a no-trade clause. I was looking for good teams with deep pockets that might work for both Buxton and the Twins.

[DocBauer]

I don't believe Buxton has reached the point in his career where he us at all ready to "flip the mental switch" that would allow him to focus on being a full time DH. There might come a day for that, but it's not now. HOWEVER, there should be no reason he can't fully accept doing it on an occasional basis here and there as a half day off.

The guy's knee was a wreck last season. So much so he got about half a game at St Paul in CF for the whole season. You can't hit/perform when you don't have your legs underneath you, as many have also stated.

Success for me is simple: He's healthy enough to play 80 to maybe 100 games in CF. Additionally, he plays another 20-40 games as a DH. Might even toss in PH duties in there, if you want, as part of the 20-40 mix.

I'm not picking numbers for offensive production. If Buck is healthy/reasonably healthy to play and appear in that many games, the numbers/production will be there.

[Chris Spencer]

I am not on board with the injury prone stuff. Sometime injuries happen and are inevitable but there are also players that know how to take care of themselves and other players that dont. There are also players that can play through injuries and players I would call SOFT. Buck is on the wrong side of both arguments.  To me he is either in Center, on the bench or DL. I would not waste more than a few games of DH on him. In my opinion he is a huge liability at DH.

[DJL44]

23 hours ago, Fatbat said:

I think a few people didn’t read this post the way it was intended. At age 30, a successful season for Buxton should be nothing short of an Allstar season and MVP talk from game 1 to game 180. Its not his fault that injuries have derailed his career.  Its a bit late to ask for 100 games of semi mediocre results from a healthy, grown man. He has put in his time with the medical and training/rehab experts, its time to expect expert results from a 5 tool guy.  Actual success, even for him, shouldn't be showing up to participate. Success for Buxton in ‘24 should be putting on a show.  
I said what I said. MVP talk all season long. 

Setting the bar so high that all but a handful of players would fail to meet expectations is not helpful. He can provide a lot of value and still be a "failure" in your eyes.

[Original_JB]

If, as they are saying, he is truly healthy, he is the starting CF, 5 days a week; no coddling, no trying to minimize his innings to 'preserve him' for later in the year. Play him as a full time player, until you can't. And when/if he breaks down, he goes on the IR, not nibbling around at DH or PH for weeks at a time. So, some of this is on the Twins' handling of him. Quit pretending he's the shiny new tool you're too afraid to scratch up in use; Use him as the everyday tool he is supposed to be, until he's not, then set him aside.

[Fatbat]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Setting the bar so high that all but a handful of players would fail to meet expectations is not helpful. He can provide a lot of value and still be a "failure" in your eyes.

Even a mediocre season with 120 games played will be considered a success for Buxton because of his injury history. My point was that setting the bar so low is only partial success tho. He has a contract that incentivizes him to be an MVP and I would bet he has that as a goal in his career. I’d be happy with a solid season that he could build off of but I’m still setting the bar higher than that. 

[jmlease1]

On 12/23/2023 at 6:31 PM, the_brute_squad said:

The Twins had a generational player. One with every tool a shot and team desires. He could have been a Ricky Henderson / Tim Raines player with a Kirby Puckett defensive skill set. High avg, power,  situational hitting 

Instead, the Twins brain trust says "don't worry about how the game has been played with players of your talent for over a century, focus on home runs." 

Wasted talent. Bad advice. Trade him to a team that appreciates how the game should be played. 

 

I'm sorry, but where exactly are you divining the supposed "advice" the front office gave him to focus on home runs? Because that reads like straight up "I hate the Twins front office, so Imma make some $#!@ up about them".

You also talk about "wasted talent" like his getting hurt is somehow a moral failing on his part. Wasted talent would be things like if he was getting fat in the offseason, pissing away his ability on cocaine, or being such a clubhouse cancer that no one wants to play with him. None of that stuff is going on here: he's just been hurt. It sucks, but it happens, and he certainly didn't choose to hurt his knee.

 

[adorduan]

100 + games in the outfield. A BA over .250.

[adorduan]

On 12/24/2023 at 7:55 AM, Fatbat said:

I think a few people didn’t read this post the way it was intended. At age 30, a successful season for Buxton should be nothing short of an Allstar season and MVP talk from game 1 to game 180. Its not his fault that injuries have derailed his career.  Its a bit late to ask for 100 games of semi mediocre results from a healthy, grown man. He has put in his time with the medical and training/rehab experts, its time to expect expert results from a 5 tool guy.  Actual success, even for him, shouldn't be showing up to participate. Success for Buxton in ‘24 should be putting on a show.  
I said what I said. MVP talk all season long. 

No, but from every available data point it's realistic. His track record says he will be injured at least part of the season and be a very streaky hitter. It is what it is, 

[ewen21]

What is a successful season for Buxton?  I guess it depends on how low you want to set the bar.  The fact that threads like this keep getting written and that we have had discussions like this for years says a lot about him.  The guy has played in more than 92 games once and he is now 30 years old.  In his last six seasons he has had more than 75 hits ONCE.  What are we really talking about here?

 

I predict he has about 250 at bats and hits .221 with an OBP under .300.  That is what he is.