Offseason Status Update: Attrition By Subtraction

[Nick Nelson]

We're closing in on the holiday shutdown and the Twins have yet to make an additive move of significance. Even by their own standards, this lack of activity is extreme and deflating. 

Alas, the past few weeks of this offseason have not been without Twins-related headlines and rumors. Let's get caught up.

Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

We all knew coming into this offseason that the Minnesota Twins were likely to move slowly and save their biggest decisions for later. This has always been their tendency and a variety of factors -- not the least of which, their revenue uncertainty -- were pushing them further in that direction.

Even with that context, the absolute dead silence from the front office has been staggering. We're six weeks into the offseason and the team has not made one single addition. Not a waiver claim, not a minor-league signing (outside of bringing back a few of their own organizational depth players). Certainly not any move of significance to jolt a slumbering fan base that's been quickly lulled to sleep following a breakthrough season. 

We know those moves are still to come. Playing out the market has been a consistent practice for this front office and it's been pretty effective. At the same time, no one can fault fans at large for feeling a little jaded and disconcerted by the state of affairs. The Twins opened up the offseason by oddly broadcasting their intention to slash payroll, and have now sat idly while watching several key pieces depart from the pitching machine they built.

Minor-league pitching coordinator Justin Willard was poached away by the Red Sox. Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Emilio Pagan all signed elsewhere. Most recently, another member of the 2023 rotation landed in a new spot -- albeit not one the Twins seemed very interested in re-signing.

Mahle Signs Two-Year Contract with Rangers
Following an injury-ruined run in Minnesota, free agent Tyler Mahle signed a deal this past week with the defending champions. Similar to the original contract between the Twins and Michael Pineda several years back, this one will involve paying Mahle to rehab from Tommy John surgery and then hopefully reap rewards on the back end.

I gotta say, the Pineda deal ($10 million for two years) made a lot more sense to me than this one for Mahle. If you assume the right-hander is going to miss most or all of next year, then you're talking about basically paying him $20 million (plus incentives!) to be part of your 2025 rotation. Based on what? I get that everyone's high on Mahle's talent and upside but he'll be 30 with a 4.30 career ERA, 4.27 FIP, and history of durability issues.

I can certainly see why the Twins reportedly "literally had zero interest" in approaching those terms, per Darren Wolfson. Still, he becomes the third member of the 2023 Opening Day rotation to officially move on, and he serves as a reminder of the depth Minnesota still needs to build; only because of their contingencies behind the starting five last year was Mahle being a non-factor ... well, a non-factor.

Twins Pursuing a Frontline Starter via Trade
Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic came away from the Winter Meetings earlier this month convinced of something many of us have generally assumed: the Twins are aiming to land a front-of-rotation starter this offseason by executing at least one major trade. It's the same formula that brought them Mahle, as well as (more successfully) Gray, Maeda and Pablo Lopez.

In some areas, the Twins front office can basically afford to be as patient as they want, playing things at their own pace. That's not necessarily the case here if they have specific targets in mind. Those players are going to start moving once Yoshinobu Yamamoto signs and teams start scrambling for impact starters. 

One prominent name from the trade market, Tampa Bay's Tyler Glasnow, has already been claimed. He's heading to the Dodgers alongside outfielder Manuel Margot to join Shohei Ohtani and Co. on a rejuvenated National League powerhouse. Glasnow was likely not in the Twins' sights, given his $25 million price tag for next year (now with an extra $110 million added on, via freshly minted extension). But the market has begun to move.

Polanco and Others Drawing Trade Interest
Jorge Polanco is known to be on the trading block, and MLB Network's Jon Morosi reported last week that the the Twins were receiving increased interest in the veteran infielder. This comes as no real surprise given the state of the second base free agent market. 

Morosi previously connected Max Kepler and the Mariners as a possible match, which is not the first time this possible connection has been raised. Meanwhile, Kyle Farmer and Christian Vázquez remain names to watch, though trading either one of them would be primarily a salary dump.

2024 Roster and Payroll Projection
Nothing has really changed since the end of the season. The projected roster and payroll has remained static with the lack of additions; here's how it would currently shake out at about $120 million, which is on the low end of the $120-$140 million range fans were told they could expect. 

It's a respectable roster, which speaks to the quality of the base from which the front office is building this offseason. But there's work to do. How long until they get to it? How long until we have some additions to talk about instead of only attrition and subtraction?

Unfortunately, I think we fans have more waiting in store, because we are fast approaching a period of the baseball calendar that are always dormant. It may well be a new year before we see any new Twins enter the fold.

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[Brandon]

We did add a draft pick this offseason.  Too bad we didn’t get a rule 5 pick to give us something to analyze…

[rickyriolo]

Great article Nick as usual. Sadly the front office make us wait. Merry Christmas everyone 

[Cory Engelhardt]

I saw on Instagram that Jose Miranda is now a Boras client. Just thought that was interesting. I hope he is healthy going into the spring 

[Bob Twins Fan Since 61]

Would add that four minor league players (hitters Brooks Lee, Austin Martin and starting pitchers David Festa and Simen Wood-Richardson) are important pieces in the Twins planning for 2024.  How soon they can make the step up from St. Paul to being solid contributors to the major league roster.  Their development will be critical if payroll is limited.  

 

[roger]

30 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I saw on Instagram that Jose Miranda is now a Boras client. Just thought that was interesting. I hope he is healthy going into the spring 

Interesting, Cory.  Thanks for posting.  I can't believe Boras would sign Miranda as a client if he didn't believe, 1) that he will be healthy; and 2) there is a very good chance he will be the hitter he was two years ago.  Someone correct me if this is wrong, but Boras doesn't take players on who aren't expected to be good, does he?  And if Miranda is their comeback player of the year, his right handed bat would be huge, HUGE!

I expect we are going to be doing a lot of waiting this winter.  Wouldn't be surprised if the Twins complete only one trade along with a few free agent signings.  Could be former big leaguers on a minor league deal coming back from an injury.  Or maybe a AAAA type player who they believe can be coaxed to another level.  Likely a couple pitchers, both starters and relievers, and a fourth outfielder who can play center.

Looking at their depth, gotta believe the player going will be Polanco.  They just don't have the corner outfielders to allow them to trade Max.  Add one of the younger pitchers, say SWR or pitcher X, in a deal and they could get back a quality young starter with some big league experience and 4-5 years of control.     

 

[Karbo]

I would be very selective and careful trading away either Polo or Kepler. We really don't know how well Julian will do in a full year of other teams scouting for weaknesses. Also, other than Larnach, you are banking on Martin or one of the utility guys on the OF. Either is a risk worth taking, provided they get some MLB ready talent that has room to grow, and at least a few years of control.

[FLYBOY1979]

One question they need to answer is how much money they can spend. So the TV deal needs an answer ASAP. I am sure that is not an easy puzzle to put together, but I sure hope they get something done .

I am bad with names, sorry, bring Taylor back , the guy who played 1st base? And trade for a couple pitchers.

[Kirby Killebrew]

If we believe the Twins' primary offseason goal is to obtain a playoff-quality starting pitcher (e.g., a Sonny Gray or Kenta Maeda type), then the FO actions are completely in line with doing so. 

* the team cannot afford a free-agent pitcher of that level, so that option is not available; he will have to be obtained via trade

* the top free agents (hitters and pitchers) must go off the board, so that the other teams have an idea what their rosters are going to look like

* therefore, the FO has to wait until January/February to make that trade

* as noted by other writers, based on the current roster, our most valuable tradeable players are Polanco, Farmer and Vazquez (although unlikely we can get much for Vazquez because of the $10m salary the other team would have to take on).

* Should not trade Kepler because our OF depth is unproven. 

* the FO will have to find a team in significant need of a strong infield bat (Polanco), valuable utility guy (Farmer), and/or starting catcher (Vazquez), that is willing to trade that playoff-quality starter

* individually, I doubt those players can fetch a playoff-quality starter in return.

* my guess is that the FO will have to package a combination of Polanco/Farmer/Vazquez/prospect(s) for the playoff starter.

* again, I don't think that can happen until the free-agent market has lost most of the big names, hitters and pitchers.  

* in summary, the quiet November/December is necessary with the quest for a big-time starting pitcher.

Agree, disagree, what do you think of this?

 

 

[Brandon]

How many moves do you expect the front office to make?  I expect a starting pitcher capable of being trusted in the playoffs.  A #2 starter.  I also expect the Twins will sign a bench player either a CF or 1B and a minor league deal or three for relievers and depth. And a depth starter maybe.  That would tell us how the Twins feel about our starters below Varland.  If Keuchel wants to come back on a AAA deal and even one with opt outs or handshake agreements to move him for a MLB opportunity, I’m on board with that.  Out of all that I only expect 1 major transaction.  Though if the pitcher we acquire has a salary over 5 million and we are not trading a salary back in the deal, I would expect the Twins will trade Polanco for prospects and salary relief.  Though I suspect it’s Farmer on his way out.  

[sweetmusicviola16]

It's about the kind of off season to be expected when you make it known that payroll will be reduced.

The camp invite players are still to come, and we usually seem to get a guy or two who makes good on it. I also expect an FA SP or two signings will happen. But more a depth signing than anything. Guys that come to my mind as possibilities would be Dakota Hudson, Spencer Turnbull, Matt Boyd, etc.

I do think a major trade for an SP will happen. But it may even be close to ST or even after it starts before this happens. No idea who it might be at this point either. But a couple of our salaries will depart along with one or two of our most beloved prospects.

[ashbury]

3 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I saw on Instagram that Jose Miranda is now a Boras client.

 

2 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Wasn't Joey Gallo a Boras client?

I guess Miranda is going to start striking out more, as a result.

[Reptevia]

There either has to be a salary exchange or dump to afford a real #2 guy.   I doubt any team would give up a real #2 with team control for Polanco, Farmer and Vasquez combined. Unless there’s some team out there that has tons of pitchers and feels they are a starting 2B and a couple depth players away from being contenders. 

[Kirby Killebrew]

2 hours ago, Brandon said:

How many moves do you expect the front office to make?  I expect a starting pitcher capable of being trusted in the playoffs.  A #2 starter.  I also expect the Twins will sign a bench player either a CF or 1B and a minor league deal or three for relievers and depth. And a depth starter maybe.  That would tell us how the Twins feel about our starters below Varland.  If Keuchel wants to come back on a AAA deal and even one with opt outs or handshake agreements to move him for a MLB opportunity, I’m on board with that.  Out of all that I only expect 1 major transaction.  Though if the pitcher we acquire has a salary over 5 million and we are not trading a salary back in the deal, I would expect the Twins will trade Polanco for prospects and salary relief.  Though I suspect it’s Farmer on his way out.  

Agree, expect one major transaction, whether it is for a significant pitcher or hitter.

 

[Kirby Killebrew]

Agree, expect one major transaction, whether it is for a significant pitcher or hitter.

[Doctor Gast]

We are under budget now, & we don't need to sign another Gallo. So what is the big push to trade any of the 4- Polanco, Kepler, Vazquez & Farmer? Other teams won't pay what they are worth to us. Trading anyone of these guys will cause a big hole in our defense. I have no reason to believe that Polanco won't start 100% ready whenever he in this shape he always has a tremendous season. As long as the shift ban stays, steady Kepler will have a fine season,  I credit Vazquez as raising the level for the catching & pitching. His hitting understandably dipped because of getting familiar with a new team & getting to know each pitchers & study how he can strategize their plan of attack on each hitter with each pitchers strength. I expect now that he's more settled in, his hitting will return to normal or better.

Some people say we have a shortage of experience OFers. Lets see we have Buxton, Kepler, Castro, Kiriloff, Larnach, Gordon, Garlic, & Wallner that's 8. Still others say we have an abundance of INFers. Let's see we have Correa, Polanco, Farmer, Lewis & Julien. that's 5. That's 8 OFers to 5 INFers. Compared to the shortage in the OF we have a greater shortage in the INF. To add to that thought, IMO Martin will come up sooner rather than latter & make an impact in the OF while Lee (IMO will thrive at AAA & eventually become an all-star) will come up much later & doubt he'll make impact.

IMO a mid-fielder needs above avg, range & a 2Bman needs to turn a smooth DP, Julien lacks in both. Evidently Julien stretched himself to the point that some said that he was adequate. Being stretched for a limited time is OK but if we trade Polanco, Julien will become our primary 2Bman for the entire season, he'll be overstretched which will really effect his defense & to some extent his offense. When we traded Garver, Jeffers took on the primary catching duties, he was quickly overstretched, tanked & became injured. If we trade Vazquez something simular could happen again.

[Major League Ready]

58 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

We are under budget now, & we don't need to sign another Gallo. So what is the big push to trade any of the 4- Polanco, Kepler, Vazquez & Farmer? Other teams won't pay what they are worth to us. Trading anyone of these guys will cause a big hole in our defense. I have no reason to believe that Polanco won't start 100% ready whenever he in this shape he always has a tremendous season. As long as the shift ban stays, steady Kepler will have a fine season,  I credit Vazquez as raising the level for the catching & pitching. His hitting understandably dipped because of getting familiar with a new team & getting to know each pitchers & study how he can stradegize their plan of attack on each hitter with each pitchers strength. I expect now that he's more settled in, his hitting will return to normal or better.

Some people say we have a shortage of experience OFers. Lets see we have Buxton, Kepler, Castro, Kiriloff, Larnach, Gordon, Garlic, & Wallner that's 8. Still others say we have an abundance of INFers. Let's see we have Correa, Polanco, Farmer, Lewis & Julien. that's 5. That's 8 OFers to 5 INFers. Compared to the shortage in the OF we have a greater shortage in the INF. To add to that thought, IMO Martin will come up sooner rather than latter & make an impact in the OF while Lee (IMO will thrive at & eventually become an all-star) will come up much later & doubt he'll make impact.

IMO a mid-fielder needs above avg, range & a 2Bman needs to turn a smooth DP, Julien lacks in both. Evidently Julien stretched himself to the point that some say was adequate. Being stretched for a limited time is OK but if we trade Polanco, Julien will become our primary 2Bman he'll be overstretched which will really effect his defense & to some extent his offense. When we traded Garver, Jeffers took on the primary catching duties, he was quickly overstretched, tanked & became injured. If we trade Vazquez something simular could happen again.

1. Julien is already the primary 2B.

2. You included Castro and Kirilloff in OFers but not IFers.  We have 2 proven OFers (Buxton and Kepler) and it's hard to rely on Buxton's health.  I guess we can call Kirilloff proven but we need him more at 1B than we do the OF.  Wallner's sample size is very small but promising.  Castro is not an OFer.  He is a utility guy and the bat is not adequate for a corner OFer.

3. Yes Garlic and Gordon are OFers but they are not OFers on a contending team, not even close and Larnach is the optime of unproven.  Not to mention Buxton's ability to stay on the field also has to be considered.

4. We are under budget but have other needs and the dollars from Polanco can be redistributed to a greater need.   

[DocBauer]

 

"2024 Roster and Payroll Projection
Nothing has really changed since the end of the season. The projected roster and payroll has remained static with the lack of additions; here's how it would currently shake out at about $120 million, which is on the low end of the $120-$140 million range fans were told they could expect."

Just a smidge over $120M right now. I am assuming the $140M number that has been mentioned as the Twins aren't going to be broke, just bringing in less, even though we aren't quite sure how the TV situation will ultimately turn out. Plus, the FO has usually pushed the payroll envelope almost every year and I don't think 2024 will be an exception.

More than likely, whatever arm they trade for, is not going to be making $20M next year. Plus, more than likely, Polanco will be moved either in the trade for said SP, OR moved for someone in a different spot to help build the 2024 roster. (small chance he's traded for a quality prospect or two to replace whoever is moved as part of the SP move).

So you have $20M to work with, cut another $10M, then add $XM back, but I'm betting no more than $14-15M, if even that. In other words, there's still a little room to add without any sort of need to cut payroll.

While no $155-160M payroll for 2024 really stinks, and won't allow any MAJOR moves, it doesn't mean there isn't room to augment and add to a roster that is actually quite young, and mostly under control. So I'm not singing the blues about this offseason...just wish it could be a little bigger, no matter what they end up doing. But there is no death sentence to next season with a $140M payroll.

[Jacksson]

Very dicey to consider trading Farmer.  Unless the brain wizards are comfortable with either Gordon or Castro as the backup at SS.  Unfortunately, there is no guarantee that the plantar fasciitis that plagued Correa in 2023 won't be chronic or return in 2024.  Same consideration with Buxton and his knee.  Got to have a plan B for that too. 

[chpettit19]

3 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

We are under budget now, & we don't need to sign another Gallo. So what is the big push to trade any of the 4- Polanco, Kepler, Vazquez & Farmer? Other teams won't pay what they are worth to us. Trading anyone of these guys will cause a big hole in our defense. I have no reason to believe that Polanco won't start 100% ready whenever he in this shape he always has a tremendous season. As long as the shift ban stays, steady Kepler will have a fine season,  I credit Vazquez as raising the level for the catching & pitching. His hitting understandably dipped because of getting familiar with a new team & getting to know each pitchers & study how he can strategize their plan of attack on each hitter with each pitchers strength. I expect now that he's more settled in, his hitting will return to normal or better.

Some people say we have a shortage of experience OFers. Lets see we have Buxton, Kepler, Castro, Kiriloff, Larnach, Gordon, Garlic, & Wallner that's 8. Still others say we have an abundance of INFers. Let's see we have Correa, Polanco, Farmer, Lewis & Julien. that's 5. That's 8 OFers to 5 INFers. Compared to the shortage in the OF we have a greater shortage in the INF. To add to that thought, IMO Martin will come up sooner rather than latter & make an impact in the OF while Lee (IMO will thrive at AAA & eventually become an all-star) will come up much later & doubt he'll make impact.

IMO a mid-fielder needs above avg, range & a 2Bman needs to turn a smooth DP, Julien lacks in both. Evidently Julien stretched himself to the point that some said that he was adequate. Being stretched for a limited time is OK but if we trade Polanco, Julien will become our primary 2Bman he'll be overstretched which will really effect his defense & to some extent his offense. When we traded Garver, Jeffers took on the primary catching duties, he was quickly overstretched, tanked & became injured. If we trade Vazquez something simular could happen again.

Kyle Garlick is a free agent so I don't think you can count him as a Twins OF option. You list Kirilloff as an OFer and not an IFer even though both Falvey and Rocco have stated the plan is for him to be at 1B and only in the OF as an emergency. Castro is a super utility player so only counting him in the OF isn't accurately showing where he plays. So after taking the FA off your list and switching Kirilloff to the correct area the OF is down to 6 players and the IF is at 6 with Castro giving them both another .5 so the depth is actually pretty close. And that's ignoring the fact that Nick Gordon plays 2B as well and only counting him as an OFer. And Martin has played more IF than OF in his Twins career so I'm not sure why we'd only list him as an OF option.

[D.C Twins]

Clearing Buxton's 15 mil off the payroll would be the best, but unfortunately there would be no takers. 

(Acknowledging that I was fully on board with the signing when it happened and enjoyed peak Buck as much as anyone)

[SteveLV]

I view Lee as a potential SS backup if Correa is out and Farmer is traded.

[FlyingFinn]

1 hour ago, Jacksson said:

Unless the brain wizards are comfortable with either Gordon or Castro as the backup at SS. 

Lewis is a SS who plays elsewhere because of Correa.

[Brandon]

17 minutes ago, SteveLV said:

I view Lee as a potential SS backup if Correa is out and Farmer is traded.

And Lewis.  He will be taking reps there in spring training.

[Brandon]

More subtraction occurred today.  Rob Antony will be leaving at the end of the year as his contract expires and was not renewed.  He has been here since 1988.  And was the acting GM between Terry Ryan and Falvey and Levine.  I think he traded for Mejia with the Angels for Nolasco and that injured starting pitching prospect.  The one we got from the Nationals for Span.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/central-notes-cubs-royals-india-twins.html

[AceWrigley]

Just another fan enjoying the Twins off-season.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm not at all worried yet. 

[Doctor Wu]

14 hours ago, Reptevia said:

There either has to be a salary exchange or dump to afford a real #2 guy.   I doubt any team would give up a real #2 with team control for Polanco, Farmer and Vasquez combined. Unless there’s some team out there that has tons of pitchers and feels they are a starting 2B and a couple depth players away from being contenders. 

I agree, Polanco alone won't bring back a frontline starter, and even adding the other two players you mentioned won't sweeten the pot enough either. If want good pitching, very good pitching, we are going to have to part with one of our better prospects too. No other way around it. 

[Doctor Wu]

10 hours ago, Jacksson said:

Very dicey to consider trading Farmer.  Unless the brain wizards are comfortable with either Gordon or Castro as the backup at SS.  Unfortunately, there is no guarantee that the plantar fasciitis that plagued Correa in 2023 won't be chronic or return in 2024.  Same consideration with Buxton and his knee.  Got to have a plan B for that too. 

I hope they hang on to Farmer. His salary isn't that high, plus he can play multiple positions and just has that "tough as nails" type of mentality that I think we need on the team. 

[Otaknam]

 It makes sense if Polanco is traded for starting pitching, since infield is a position of depth. But he would likely have to be packaged with a good prospect, hopefully not Raya, Lee or Festa. I can see the team playing the waiting game on adding a right handed bat like Hoskins, hoping that Miranda recovers the form he had in 2022 so he can platoon at first and occasionally at third, and also DH. Vasquez has an untradable contract unless the team picks up a portion of it. They still need a center fielder as insurance against the next Buxton jury, which always happens. As others have pointed out, they likely keep Kepler because of the lack of outfield depth unless they get a trade offer they cannot refuse. Finally given the uncertain TV contract issue, I think they will save money on the bullpen by utilizing their current pitching roster of Winder, Sands, and others , with maybe one outside addition on a one year deal.