Offseason Status Update: Attrition By Subtraction

We did add a draft pick this offseason.  Too bad we didn’t get a rule 5 pick to give us something to analyze…

Great article Nick as usual. Sadly the front office make us wait. Merry Christmas everyone 

30 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I saw on Instagram that Jose Miranda is now a Boras client. Just thought that was interesting. I hope he is healthy going into the spring 

Interesting, Cory.  Thanks for posting.  I can't believe Boras would sign Miranda as a client if he didn't believe, 1) that he will be healthy; and 2) there is a very good chance he will be the hitter he was two years ago.  Someone correct me if this is wrong, but Boras doesn't take players on who aren't expected to be good, does he?  And if Miranda is their comeback player of the year, his right handed bat would be huge, HUGE!

I expect we are going to be doing a lot of waiting this winter.  Wouldn't be surprised if the Twins complete only one trade along with a few free agent signings.  Could be former big leaguers on a minor league deal coming back from an injury.  Or maybe a AAAA type player who they believe can be coaxed to another level.  Likely a couple pitchers, both starters and relievers, and a fourth outfielder who can play center.

Looking at their depth, gotta believe the player going will be Polanco.  They just don't have the corner outfielders to allow them to trade Max.  Add one of the younger pitchers, say SWR or pitcher X, in a deal and they could get back a quality young starter with some big league experience and 4-5 years of control.     

One question they need to answer is how much money they can spend. So the TV deal needs an answer ASAP. I am sure that is not an easy puzzle to put together, but I sure hope they get something done .

I am bad with names, sorry, bring Taylor back , the guy who played 1st base? And trade for a couple pitchers.

How many moves do you expect the front office to make?  I expect a starting pitcher capable of being trusted in the playoffs.  A #2 starter.  I also expect the Twins will sign a bench player either a CF or 1B and a minor league deal or three for relievers and depth. And a depth starter maybe.  That would tell us how the Twins feel about our starters below Varland.  If Keuchel wants to come back on a AAA deal and even one with opt outs or handshake agreements to move him for a MLB opportunity, I’m on board with that.  Out of all that I only expect 1 major transaction.  Though if the pitcher we acquire has a salary over 5 million and we are not trading a salary back in the deal, I would expect the Twins will trade Polanco for prospects and salary relief.  Though I suspect it’s Farmer on his way out.  

It's about the kind of off season to be expected when you make it known that payroll will be reduced.

The camp invite players are still to come, and we usually seem to get a guy or two who makes good on it. I also expect an FA SP or two signings will happen. But more a depth signing than anything. Guys that come to my mind as possibilities would be Dakota Hudson, Spencer Turnbull, Matt Boyd, etc.

I do think a major trade for an SP will happen. But it may even be close to ST or even after it starts before this happens. No idea who it might be at this point either. But a couple of our salaries will depart along with one or two of our most beloved prospects.

There either has to be a salary exchange or dump to afford a real #2 guy.   I doubt any team would give up a real #2 with team control for Polanco, Farmer and Vasquez combined. Unless there’s some team out there that has tons of pitchers and feels they are a starting 2B and a couple depth players away from being contenders. 

We are under budget now, & we don't need to sign another Gallo. So what is the big push to trade any of the 4- Polanco, Kepler, Vazquez & Farmer? Other teams won't pay what they are worth to us. Trading anyone of these guys will cause a big hole in our defense. I have no reason to believe that Polanco won't start 100% ready whenever he in this shape he always has a tremendous season. As long as the shift ban stays, steady Kepler will have a fine season,  I credit Vazquez as raising the level for the catching & pitching. His hitting understandably dipped because of getting familiar with a new team & getting to know each pitchers & study how he can strategize their plan of attack on each hitter with each pitchers strength. I expect now that he's more settled in, his hitting will return to normal or better.

Some people say we have a shortage of experience OFers. Lets see we have Buxton, Kepler, Castro, Kiriloff, Larnach, Gordon, Garlic, & Wallner that's 8. Still others say we have an abundance of INFers. Let's see we have Correa, Polanco, Farmer, Lewis & Julien. that's 5. That's 8 OFers to 5 INFers. Compared to the shortage in the OF we have a greater shortage in the INF. To add to that thought, IMO Martin will come up sooner rather than latter & make an impact in the OF while Lee (IMO will thrive at AAA & eventually become an all-star) will come up much later & doubt he'll make impact.

IMO a mid-fielder needs above avg, range & a 2Bman needs to turn a smooth DP, Julien lacks in both. Evidently Julien stretched himself to the point that some said that he was adequate. Being stretched for a limited time is OK but if we trade Polanco, Julien will become our primary 2Bman for the entire season, he'll be overstretched which will really effect his defense & to some extent his offense. When we traded Garver, Jeffers took on the primary catching duties, he was quickly overstretched, tanked & became injured. If we trade Vazquez something simular could happen again.

58 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

We are under budget now, & we don't need to sign another Gallo. So what is the big push to trade any of the 4- Polanco, Kepler, Vazquez & Farmer? Other teams won't pay what they are worth to us. Trading anyone of these guys will cause a big hole in our defense. I have no reason to believe that Polanco won't start 100% ready whenever he in this shape he always has a tremendous season. As long as the shift ban stays, steady Kepler will have a fine season,  I credit Vazquez as raising the level for the catching & pitching. His hitting understandably dipped because of getting familiar with a new team & getting to know each pitchers & study how he can stradegize their plan of attack on each hitter with each pitchers strength. I expect now that he's more settled in, his hitting will return to normal or better.

Some people say we have a shortage of experience OFers. Lets see we have Buxton, Kepler, Castro, Kiriloff, Larnach, Gordon, Garlic, & Wallner that's 8. Still others say we have an abundance of INFers. Let's see we have Correa, Polanco, Farmer, Lewis & Julien. that's 5. That's 8 OFers to 5 INFers. Compared to the shortage in the OF we have a greater shortage in the INF. To add to that thought, IMO Martin will come up sooner rather than latter & make an impact in the OF while Lee (IMO will thrive at & eventually become an all-star) will come up much later & doubt he'll make impact.

IMO a mid-fielder needs above avg, range & a 2Bman needs to turn a smooth DP, Julien lacks in both. Evidently Julien stretched himself to the point that some say was adequate. Being stretched for a limited time is OK but if we trade Polanco, Julien will become our primary 2Bman he'll be overstretched which will really effect his defense & to some extent his offense. When we traded Garver, Jeffers took on the primary catching duties, he was quickly overstretched, tanked & became injured. If we trade Vazquez something simular could happen again.

1. Julien is already the primary 2B.

2. You included Castro and Kirilloff in OFers but not IFers.  We have 2 proven OFers (Buxton and Kepler) and it's hard to rely on Buxton's health.  I guess we can call Kirilloff proven but we need him more at 1B than we do the OF.  Wallner's sample size is very small but promising.  Castro is not an OFer.  He is a utility guy and the bat is not adequate for a corner OFer.

3. Yes Garlic and Gordon are OFers but they are not OFers on a contending team, not even close and Larnach is the optime of unproven.  Not to mention Buxton's ability to stay on the field also has to be considered.

4. We are under budget but have other needs and the dollars from Polanco can be redistributed to a greater need.   

Very dicey to consider trading Farmer.  Unless the brain wizards are comfortable with either Gordon or Castro as the backup at SS.  Unfortunately, there is no guarantee that the plantar fasciitis that plagued Correa in 2023 won't be chronic or return in 2024.  Same consideration with Buxton and his knee.  Got to have a plan B for that too. 

Clearing Buxton's 15 mil off the payroll would be the best, but unfortunately there would be no takers. 

(Acknowledging that I was fully on board with the signing when it happened and enjoyed peak Buck as much as anyone)

I view Lee as a potential SS backup if Correa is out and Farmer is traded.

1 hour ago, Jacksson said:

Unless the brain wizards are comfortable with either Gordon or Castro as the backup at SS. 

Lewis is a SS who plays elsewhere because of Correa.

17 minutes ago, SteveLV said:

I view Lee as a potential SS backup if Correa is out and Farmer is traded.

And Lewis.  He will be taking reps there in spring training.

More subtraction occurred today.  Rob Antony will be leaving at the end of the year as his contract expires and was not renewed.  He has been here since 1988.  And was the acting GM between Terry Ryan and Falvey and Levine.  I think he traded for Mejia with the Angels for Nolasco and that injured starting pitching prospect.  The one we got from the Nationals for Span.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/central-notes-cubs-royals-india-twins.html

Just another fan enjoying the Twins off-season.

14 hours ago, Reptevia said:

There either has to be a salary exchange or dump to afford a real #2 guy.   I doubt any team would give up a real #2 with team control for Polanco, Farmer and Vasquez combined. Unless there’s some team out there that has tons of pitchers and feels they are a starting 2B and a couple depth players away from being contenders. 

I agree, Polanco alone won't bring back a frontline starter, and even adding the other two players you mentioned won't sweeten the pot enough either. If want good pitching, very good pitching, we are going to have to part with one of our better prospects too. No other way around it. 

10 hours ago, Jacksson said:

Very dicey to consider trading Farmer.  Unless the brain wizards are comfortable with either Gordon or Castro as the backup at SS.  Unfortunately, there is no guarantee that the plantar fasciitis that plagued Correa in 2023 won't be chronic or return in 2024.  Same consideration with Buxton and his knee.  Got to have a plan B for that too. 

I hope they hang on to Farmer. His salary isn't that high, plus he can play multiple positions and just has that "tough as nails" type of mentality that I think we need on the team. 

 It makes sense if Polanco is traded for starting pitching, since infield is a position of depth. But he would likely have to be packaged with a good prospect, hopefully not Raya, Lee or Festa. I can see the team playing the waiting game on adding a right handed bat like Hoskins, hoping that Miranda recovers the form he had in 2022 so he can platoon at first and occasionally at third, and also DH. Vasquez has an untradable contract unless the team picks up a portion of it. They still need a center fielder as insurance against the next Buxton jury, which always happens. As others have pointed out, they likely keep Kepler because of the lack of outfield depth unless they get a trade offer they cannot refuse. Finally given the uncertain TV contract issue, I think they will save money on the bullpen by utilizing their current pitching roster of Winder, Sands, and others , with maybe one outside addition on a one year deal. 

Sign a legit DH.

Move Julien back to 2B.  Allow him to improve on the job in the field.

Move Polanco to 1B. AK is hurt too often and inconsistent.

Pray Buxton can play 150 games for once.