Comparing Kepler and Polanco to Free Agents at Their Positions

If we could package one of them for a young controllable starter to replace Gray I think that would be ideal (and line up with what this front office typically likes to do). Then we could spend our remaining budget on good CF and 1B options. Honestly I really like Bellinger since he can play both and had reverse platoon splits last year so he isn't a liability against lefties. I am very curious to see what his market ends up being. It does seem like the yankees are interested which would likely price us out of him though

Super analysis.  Thanks Nick.

The second derivative of course is value to the Twins. We are short corner outfielders (actually, all outfielders) and long middle infielders.  Normally, you’d like to sell high and Kepler is not getting any higher based on the FA market and his performance.  But after Wallner, who is our most dependable corner outfielder? Larnach? Things look fairly bare in the Twins’ outfield cupboard for 2024.

Whom do we prefer as a backup infielder - Polanco ($10.5MM) or Farmer ($6.6MM)? One surely should be moved. It’s a tough choice - both are excellent, veteran players.  Farmer is better at SS and maybe more durable. Polanco is a switch hitter and could possibly be a better fill in at 1B and DH.

The Twins have four marginally expensive veterans who could be moved to raise cash for an additional starter: Kepler, Polanco, Farmer and Vasquez.  One of those is a sure fire starter and all star calibre player - Kepler.  For a team with definitive post season aspirations in 2024, Kepler must stay. The other three are (valuable) backups - each could step up to be a quality starter if need be.  It’s hard to say which of them should be traded.  Tough call.  But if we need $15-20MM to grab a starter to replace Gray and the goal is $135MM or so in payroll, then two of them must go.  

Andres ranked because of a very strong season in 22 when he was 33.  He produced 1.1 WAR last year in his age 34 season.  I doubt any team would project Andrus in his age 35 season to produce as well as Polanco.  

These markets tend to surprise me so I can only wait and see what is offered.  Of course we want pitching - so does everyone else.  Who has so much pitching that they are willing to send a top 3 rotation piece for a position player?  

Most likely we get prospects - which I don't mind as long as we can continue to promote our prospects. 

Polanco has been a steady hitter during his career  and has good value as a switch hitter  ...

All teams trading for Kepler  , if they believe Kepler is a late bloomer  then they get a bargain  if Kepler proves them right ....

I definitely think they should trade both of them. With the emergence of Julien, and Lee on the way, 2B is covered, so the time is right to trade Polanco. As for Kepler, I liked him in 2019 but he's been a major disappointment since, until the 2nd half of this year. That's three and a half years of crud and a half a year of wow. There has never been a better time to use the old adage of "sell high" on a player that is at the end of his time for a team. The Twins payroll with both Polanco and Kepler traded for prospects would drop to about $99M. I'd give arbitration to Farmer and Miranda which raises it to $106M. With the addition of those 2 and Kirilloff I've got 1st base covered as well. Still skeptical? resign Solano for $3M. If Jung-Hoo Lee would sign for $9M he would man CF, you could move Buxton to a corner spot if he can play defense again with Wallner/Castro/Larnach/Martin. Payroll is now $118M. I still have roughly $20M to use on a #2 Starter for the rotation and anyone of these, ERod, Montgomery, Nola, Gray, Stroman, Yamamoto would be my choices to pursue, and the payroll is still around $140M. If that's still too high, I let Farmer walk and go with Gordon instead saving $5M there.

Both have clear trade value versus who is free agents.  Polanco should have much higher trade value.  He has been more consistent on offense over his career than Kepler.  Also, he has another year on his contract after next.  Kepler plays a position that is much easier to be filled.  His defense is one thing that does help set him apart though. 

Kepler, 1 year rental. I suppose that has some value except it requires a team thinking they can contend and needs an outfielder. A couple players only cost money and not a prospect. Trade possibilities go down

2 numbers not mentioned on Polanco 105 and 80. The team would also need a backup plan for half the season. They are tradable, but it would require a decent prospect to get a slightly better than decent prospect. 

Long and short of this is that we have replacements waiting in our system that are cost controlled with likely similar skills. If we can get a 4th starter for one of them and a decent prospect or two out of the other... it is time.

Both have pretty decent trade value at this point so selling high is how you keep improving ala TB. 

Nice analysis, but as others have pointed out, the Twins OF is a mess!  Wallner still unproven - will he follow path of Miranda or continue to impress?  Still a big question mark.  CF is a bigger Q mark. Dreaming Buxton there is a fool's errand at this point.  The Twins need a capable replacement for Taylor, either Taylor or via trade for someone like Kiermeier.  Result: no way can they trade Kepler.  We have no one else in org who is even close.

The IF is in better shape, assuming Julien and Lewis can be expected to play at least 75% of time at 3B and 2B.  I would resign Farmer to cover absences.  He and Castro can be the 2 major subs in the IF.  This leaves Polanco as our best trade asset.  Will he alone bring in a suitable #2 starter?  No, but he can be a major portion of a trade, along with a top minor league pitcher and maybe someone like Larnach, Vazquez, or a top 10 position player(but not top 3).  I'd go for Glasnow or maybe one of Miami's good young pitchers(after all, it worked once).

While this is off topic a bit, I  have to express keen disappointment in the team's plan to cut salary.  Here is a division winner + one playoff series victory with a roster ranked 6th among the30 ML teams.  And yet they seem to be backtracking.  Shame on you Joe Pohlad!  A cut of up to 25% of payroll is a real slap in the face to Twins fans who have waited patiently for a true WS contender to emerge.  There is a deep FA pool of good-excellent starters who stand a good chance of replacing Gray without giving up a valuable piece of the current roster.  While Polanco might be considered a luxury, in addition to CF, the Twins have no reliable starter at 1B or DH.  His bat would fit nicely into a lineup clearly lacking in clutch, contact hitters.  With a $125MM or so payroll, what are the chances of the Twins advancing further in the playoffs in 2024?  Sure they benefitted greatly last year by the emergence of Lewis, Julien and Wallner, but can we count on all 3 to continue to progress?  Are there any prospects on the 40 man who look capable of equalling 2023 newcomers?  Yes, this might be a slightly negative take, but the goal next year should be to build on 23's record and improve on it.  With a limited budget, that prospect looks improbable as of now.

1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Super analysis.  Thanks Nick.

The second derivative of course is value to the Twins. We are short corner outfielders (actually, all outfielders) and long middle infielders.  Normally, you’d like to sell high and Kepler is not getting any higher based on the FA market and his performance.  But after Wallner, who is our most dependable corner outfielder? Larnach? Things look fairly bare in the Twins’ outfield cupboard for 2024.

Whom do we prefer as a backup infielder - Polanco ($10.5MM) or Farmer ($6.6MM)? One surely should be moved. It’s a tough choice - both are excellent, veteran players.  Farmer is better at SS and maybe more durable. Polanco is a switch hitter and could possibly be a better fill in at 1B and DH.

The Twins have four marginally expensive veterans who could be moved to raise cash for an additional starter: Kepler, Polanco, Farmer and Vasquez.  One of those is a sure fire starter and all star calibre player - Kepler.  For a team with definitive post season aspirations in 2024, Kepler must stay. The other three are (valuable) backups - each could step up to be a quality starter if need be.  It’s hard to say which of them should be traded.  Tough call.  But if we need $15-20MM to grab a starter to replace Gray and the goal is $135MM or so in payroll, then two of them must go.  

 

 

I see a way to come up with 20M and keep bothKep and Polo.  We trade Farmer& Gordon & Larnach and spend up-to just over 140M.  If/when Polo and Kep are gone, the while dynamic of this team changes. 
I would definitely explore trading both of them but holy turnover on a team that just needs a little refinement. Someone needs to ((over pay)) for them cause I would be counting on them to play 130+ games. Polo alone can play every IF position and DH so he can be the utility guy that gets 500 at bats and save wear and tear on his ankles. If the young guys coming up can actually stick as MLBrs in 24, Kepler could be traded at the deadline or to a team that has an emergency need and will over pay. If he has a great season, ride him and let him walk. In 25, we get the salary flexibility and an open spot on the 40 man. 2025 is the real season of change because all the young guys are coming to MLB to stay…Lee, Erod, Martin, Rosario, Severino, maybe Jenkins. That team will be insanely different. 

Always good to listen to offers for these players.  If a good one comes in I'd trade Polo although I have always enjoyed watching him play, but he is the most redundant of the two discussed here.  I'd need more for Kepler only because we have less quality at his position, but again, if a good offer comes in I do that one also.  As many have said, there may be no better time for these two in regards to selling high.

Not sure why anyone thinks we are short outfielders when there are 7 guys, Wallner, Larnach, Kirilloff, Castro, Gordon, possible Buxton, and possible Martin available to play there. At some point in time you have to give the youngsters a real shot at significant playing time to prove themselves, not a couple of games a week here and there giving others a rest. I suggested adding Jung-Hoo Lee, a good fit for CF and the top of the lineup to set the table to go along with Julien. That would make 8 candidates to play in the outfield. If eight isn't enough they've got problems. The time to sell high on Kepler is now, even if he only brings prospects in return.

Trading Polanco & or Kepler will open up a big hole in their respective positions that can not be filled internally. Eventually Wallner can, I hope. At CF, SS & 2B- range is a preequisite, the players need to get to the ball. Julien doesn't fit that bill. But for argument sake Julien can hold down the fort until Lee is ready.

According to BTV Polanco & Kepler together could net you a 4th SP or maybe a 3rd if you;re lucky.  I'd rather stick internally instead of going that route. Or then a bunch of lottery tickets, I'm not in favor of that either. The only option I'd be in favor of, is trading them for a very good- elite soon MLB ready catcher prospect Keel (BOS), Rushing (LAD) or maybe Basallo (BAL) . Why is that?

If we are looking for high end SPs we need to look at rebuilding teams but there they only want prospects or maybe newly broke MLB players. If we want to unload some high end expendable prospects that could be an option. All other teams are looking for SPs not unload them. Except MIA, but there they won't listen unless you offer a catcher. Jeffers is at his high point trading value, IMO he has peaked & is due for a regression. We have Vazquez who can mentor & groom this new apprentise quickly into a viable MLB catcher. Then Vazquez would be worth every penny we are paying him. & we'd have a top level catcher for many years. Catcher is a premium position that have been neglected by this organization. If we want to progress as a contender we need to address this area.

4 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Super analysis.  Thanks Nick.

The second derivative of course is value to the Twins. We are short corner outfielders (actually, all outfielders) and long middle infielders.  Normally, you’d like to sell high and Kepler is not getting any higher based on the FA market and his performance.  But after Wallner, who is our most dependable corner outfielder? Larnach? Things look fairly bare in the Twins’ outfield cupboard for 2024.

Whom do we prefer as a backup infielder - Polanco ($10.5MM) or Farmer ($6.6MM)? One surely should be moved. It’s a tough choice - both are excellent, veteran players.  Farmer is better at SS and maybe more durable. Polanco is a switch hitter and could possibly be a better fill in at 1B and DH.

The Twins have four marginally expensive veterans who could be moved to raise cash for an additional starter: Kepler, Polanco, Farmer and Vasquez.  One of those is a sure fire starter and all star calibre player - Kepler.  For a team with definitive post season aspirations in 2024, Kepler must stay. The other three are (valuable) backups - each could step up to be a quality starter if need be.  It’s hard to say which of them should be traded.  Tough call.  But if we need $15-20MM to grab a starter to replace Gray and the goal is $135MM or so in payroll, then two of them must go.  

 

 

Great article and I also agree with your comments.  I certainly believe Polanco should be traded.  As you stated, the issue with Kepler is the lack of depth in outfield positions.  Certainly Kirilloff can move back to the outfield which would likely happen if Kepler is traded.  Lastly, with Vasquez, the Twins are carrying two starting quality catchers and while that is beneficial, I think with a salary strapped team, it is too much of a luxury.  I would move Vasquez before moving Kepler and I think he has more years remaining on his contract.

51 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Very good analysis be Nick!

Farmer is better on D at all 3 positions he or Polanco may play. The $3.5M difference in salary………. .255 BA (career .255) & 120 games (lost a month after getting hit in the face) in ‘22 for Farmer…… .256 BA (career .270 & .235 BA in ‘22) & 80 games in ‘23 for Polanco.

Cost - Durability/availability - D flexibility - consistency all fall to Farmer.

Keep Kepler - Farmer - Vazquez…….he is 4th best defensive catcher in league & can’t trade his $10M salary

I throw Castro - Gordon - Martin into our outfield options………all ahead of Larnach.

Mostly agree, although we have no idea what value Gordon brings going forward.

Based on this article, if we were ever hoping to 'sell high' on either of these guys, now would appear to be the time to do so.  If we hold onto them fine - but selling from a position of strength for a position of weakness (need pitching again) sounds like a good plan to me.

So the question becomes are we trying to win or trying to be ok and start a new playoff losing streak?  

Not saying I want either of them moved, but Polanco would seem to be the more valuable overall, and is the more readily replaceable of the two.

Larnach has stepped forward as hoped yet, Martin is more of a natural top of the order hitter, we really have no clue at this point what Gordon is/might be, and most everyone else is going to be at AA or lower. So I don't see moving Kepler unless a crazy offer is made.

But speaking of Larnach, if the LH OF situation is as bad as it appears, does his value as part of a package suddenly jump? 

8 hours ago, weneedneshek said:

If we could package one of them for a young controllable starter to replace Gray I think that would be ideal (and line up with what this front office typically likes to do). Then we could spend our remaining budget on good CF and 1B options. Honestly I really like Bellinger since he can play both and had reverse platoon splits last year so he isn't a liability against lefties. I am very curious to see what his market ends up being. It does seem like the yankees are interested which would likely price us out of him though

Bellinger is going to get paid. A lot. Like more than 150 million. No way the Twins are a player there.

19 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Holy turnover, Batman!!  To the Batcave!

Yep, that would be like having to view; Batman & Robine after viewing Batman Forever

Great Post !  This is where it gets confusing for those of us fans who try to follow baseball closely and think we know a little, but must admit we don't know a LOT.  I think Polanco is certainly going to be traded with Julien and Lee available.  Kepler, I'm not so sure, but could see it happening.  From a trade standpoint, both are pretty solid players with a few warts but contracts that should make them attractive to certain teams.  

I use BBTV as well because it gives me at least a "clue" what an impartial "value" for a player would be.  There are teams like Cleveland, White Sox, Mariners and Marlins who have pitching to trade and needs at 2B or RF.  But look at the "values" of some Twins players and some pitchers we could have an interest in and their values:

Polanco 4.5  Kepler 8.9  Larnach 7.8 and Jeffers 33.3.  Jeffers would be a prime "sell high" candidate if you don't believe his 2023 season makes him our catcher for the next 5 years.

Glasnow  13.1  30 years old.

Dylan Cease 44.8 28 yo  Mike Kopech -3.6 28 yo (I love his arm and would take a chance on it) Eloy Jimezez -7.3 (a RH hitting LF?) Luis Robert 84.8 (just the CF we could use.  Big RH stick, good fielder.  Not happening).

Logan Gilbert 73.9  Bryan Woo 24.6  Robbie Ray -30.2  Bryce Miller 25.8 25 yo  Ty France 3.6 (a 1B?) 29 yo  George Kirby 98.6 26 yo  Luis Castillo 20.8 31 yo.

Logan Allen 27.0 25 yo  Shane Bieber 5.7 29 yo  Tristen McKenzie 30.9 27 yo  Gavin Williams 40.4 24 yo

Sandy Alcantara  15.3  28 yo  Eduard Cabrera 8.5 26 yo  Sixto Sanchez 0.0 26 yo  max Meyer 16.7 24 yo  Trevor Rogers 17.4 26 yo.

Polanco or Max alone aren't getting anything done unless it's Max or Larnach straight up for E. Cabrera.  If you're willing to trade Jeffers, you can aim higher, count on a bounce back season from Vasquez and promote Camargo to backup catcher.  Any deal I do with Miami I want to have Sixto Sanchez included.  Two or three years ago he was a hot prospect.  Then injuries started to plague him (think Canterino) and his value has plummeted to zero.  He's still just 26 and if you can unlock that arm talent, you've got a steal.  He's still considered a starter but all he needs is health to take off.

You see some of these values and it's tough to envision the Twins trading for a Kirby or a Gilbert.  But talented pitchers like Alcantara, Castillo and Glasnow are at an affordable level trade-wise.  Castillo already has a big contract (5 yrs $108 million which is more cost efficient than Sonny Gray will be).  Alcantara is signed for 5 years and $56 million.  Glasnow will earn $25 million in 2024 and then be a free agent.

I'd target Alcantara and Castillo.  They aren't unreasonable cost wise for a trade and each comes with 5 years of control.  Castillo at $21.6 million (He's always been twice the pitcher Sonny Gray was) and Alcantara at just over $11 million per season.  Those two give the Twins a rotation of Castillo, Lopez, Alcantara, Ryan and Ober.  How do we get them?

Trade #1 with Mariners

Mariners Get:  Kepler 8.9 OF Miranda 5.3 1B/3B/DH 26 yo  David Festa RHP 8.7 23 yo and Misael Urbina 2.3 OF 21 yo  Total Value 25.2

Twins Get:  Luis Castillo 20.8 SP 31 yo (we have him for his 31-35 year old seasons at about $21 million per, and Ty France 3.6 1B 29 yo.  Total Value 24.4

Trade #2 with Marlins

Marlins Get:  Jorge Polanco 4.5 2B/3B  Trevor Larnach 7.8 OF 27 yo  Josh Winder RHP 4.9  27 yo.  Total Value:  17.2

Twins Get:  Sandy Alcantara 15.3 28 yo. and Sixto Sanchez 0.0 RHP 26 yo.  Total Value:  15.3.

In each case it needs to be a slight overpay to acquire quality starting pitching.  Each team gets a little more juice for their offense and a young pitcher to replace the arm their losing.  The Mariners do the deal because they need to add offense and Kepler and Miranda could do that and they already have Kirby, Gilbert, R. Ray, Woo and Bryce Miller in their rotation.  They can afford to trade Castillo and he's their most expensive arm.  

The Marlins make the deal because Polanco and Larnach give their lineup a jolt and they get a decent bullpen arm back in Winder.  They also already have Jesus Luzardo, Eury Perez, Trevor Rogers, Eduard Cabrera and Max Meyer slated to be in their 2024 rotation.  And they have more arms on the way.  

The trades at least pass the smell test because there is the sense that there could be comparable value.  But none of us knows how the teams ACTUALLY value their players and other teams players.

This would be a bold move to build an awesome rotation with fixed costs for the big three for about 5 more seasons.  The Ryan and Ober costs would be dealt with at the appropriate time.  With so many affordable young hitters, I think the Twins have a unique opportunity to build a starting staff like this.  And Jenkins, Lee, Julien, Wallner, Jeffers, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Royce Lewis are the core you build around.  I might even deal Farmer to open up $6.6 million more if I think Castro can fill in adequately at 2B, 3B, CF, LF and even SS.  Maybe there's even enough money to afford Jung-hoo Lee to play CF and I get Ty France as a 1B/DH RH bat who makes contact consistently.  

What does everyone think?

It should also be noted that Jonathan India is also rumored to be traded, which means the Twins aren't the only team to be holding a valuable trade chip in a depleted 2B market.

India has only put up 1.7 WAR over the past two years compared to Polanco's 3.3, but given that he is 4 years younger and is controlled for one more year at a more reasonable price, I'm afraid India is going to be the more coveted trade target for 2B needy teams.

Given that, I think Polanco's trade market is going to be restricted to teams that are completely in win-now mode. One of the main teams thrown around in a potential Polanco trade are the Mariners, but they may prefer to have India than Polanco, especially if they are going to trade one of their young arms.

For a truly top pitcher, to replace Gray, you are going to have to offer Lewis, with Kepler and or Polanco and or one of our 4th or 5th starting pitchers.

Garbage in , garbage out does not work; been there, done that.