Will the Twins Regret Leaving DaShawn Keirsey Unprotected in the Rule 5 Draft?

[TwinsDr2021]

13 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

I think it was a big mistake. Keirsey is busting with talent and has a really sweet swing.

Keirseys 2023 Stats

8 triples, 15 HR, 39 SB .294 BA .366 OBP .455 SLG

Start at 1:28 for DaShawn Kiersey hitting highlights

A 26 year old putting up those numbers mostly in AA (where he was almost 2 years older than the average player), take a deep dive, he wasn't even a top 5 Center fielder in that league and every player that was better was younger, and some much, much younger. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Twins perceived depth chart at CF.  

Buxton

Castro

Martin

Gordon

maybe Keirsey jr.?  

And that’s without an outside signing, which still could happen plus Kepler in an emergency.    If he’s the #5 guy on the depth chart at 27 years old and has only had a little bit of AAA time, I can’t be too upset by it.  I’m low enough on Gordon that he might be #4 and I’m still not concerned.  

[Trov]

I see no reason they should be worried he will be taken, and if he is they should not miss him too much.  He is too old for a non contending team to want to take him.  Unless the team thinks they are like 1 or 2 seasons from competing and an average 4th OF is their missing piece. 

Position players are rarely taken in rule 5 because they cannot be stashed at end of bench like a pitcher.  Also, guys that are hitting their primes are less likely to be taken as well.  If he is taken, good for him and hope he plays well, but most teams take pitchers or young lottery tickets in rule 5 not a 4th OF. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Twins perceived depth chart at CF.  

Buxton

Castro

Martin

Gordon

maybe Keirsey jr.?  

And that’s without an outside signing, which still could happen plus Kepler in an emergency.    If he’s the #5 guy on the depth chart at 27 years old and has only had a little bit of AAA time, I can’t be too upset by it.  I’m low enough on Gordon that he might be #4 and I’m still not concerned.  

Plus Emmanuel Rodriguez on the 40 man roster and playing CF in AA next season. Right now Keirsey is the 4th outfielder for the St. Paul Saints.

The Rule 5 draft was designed precisely to give players like Kiersey a shot in a different organization.

[jmlease1]

I think the Twins would like to keep Keirsey as a depth option in CF in AAA, but probably don't see him being able to hit much in MLB and not consistently. The assessment looks right to me, so I don't think the team will regret losing him very much.

I would gamble on him in the Rule 5 if I were a bad team with needs in the OF. And if you're a bad team, you probably have needs in the OF. The risk-reward for a rebuilding team is pretty good. You know that Keirsey can handle things defensively so there's an acceptable floor while you figure out if he can hit at all in MLB, and if he can't what have you lost?

But that also means there's only a small slate of teams that are going to pick him, or will have the capacity to keep him on a roster all season. So it makes sense to expose him.

[TopGunn#22]

No.

[SaintPaulRocks]

His AA numbers were much better this year but that was with a .377 Babip. The AAA numbers were okay with the .734 ops, but that was a 93 wRC+. I don't see anyone taking him. His fielding and running are great. Just not enough for a 40 man, let alone a MLB roster. 

[saviking]

15 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

I'm wondering how many people who do not think very highly of Keirsey Jr. (or anyone for that matter) have seen him play a couple dozen times. From my perspective he has talent but lacks time and experience, which given his age makes him less of a prospect. Nevertheless, the guy can still develop. Does anyone remember Maury Wills? He played nine (9) years in the minor leagues before his first MLB opportunity. I'm not comparing the two but ..... all I'm saying is that there is a chance for Keirsey Jr.  to play MLB.

I think this if you don't make the bigs by the time you're 26 is dangerous.. Laurnach has a scarlet letter because of it. Not saying Keirsey doesn't have a lot of competition ahead of him but other than Martin no one else can come up and down as needed. Plus Buxton's knee could crumble anytime and there's a chance Gordon might not make the team or get traded. But Prato is the one that I hope makes it through. To me he's like Castro/Gordon a Swiss army knife. 

[chpettit19]

This absolutely isn't meant to be a shot at Keirsey as he's clearly a talented kid and does things us mere mortals simply can't, but if you're worried about losing Dashawn Keirsey types in the Rule V you're not as close to contending for titles as you'd like to be. 

I'd like to keep him around, and for that reason I hope he doesn't get picked, but he's not some vital part of a championship team. If the goal is to improve upon last year's results, Dashawn Keirsey simply isn't someone you should be worrying about. I hope he has a wonderful career and finds significant time on a big league roster somewhere. But if it's with the Twins in 2024 the Twins likely aren't winning the division, let alone getting further in the playoffs than they did in 2023. 

I know many of us follow these players through their minor league careers, and it makes us all (even grumpy naysayers like me) want to see them make it to the Twins and have success there and bring us championships, but the truth is that 27 year old rookies simply aren't difference makers (yes, you can find a guy here and there scattered throughout history as the exceptions to the rule). He's a nice enough depth piece if you have some injuries pop up and need a guy to fill in as your 4th OFer here and there, but he's not somebody you lose sleep over. 

The focus needs to shift from the bottom of the 40-man to the top. I know it's Rule V day so it's a natural talking point, but the section of the roster we need to be focused on is improving the top 10 guys on the roster, not whether or not the 40th guy is Keirsey, Prato, or some waiver claim like Castro. We tend to worry about losing "our guys" in the Rule V because we only focus on "our system." Speedy, glove first OFers aren't unheard of in other systems. Taking one you can't send up and down as needed for an entire season isn't usually something teams are jumping at the chance to do.

I hope Keirsey makes it. I hope he makes me look like a jerk by putting up a great MLB career that just got started later than usual. But if the Twins can't find 4 guys with better chances to help the 2024 MN Twins to fill their last four 40-man spots than Dashawn Keirsey the 2024 Twins are going to struggle to win the central division, let alone make noise in the playoffs.

[tony&rodney]

To be clear, Keirsey Jr. is best as depth in AAA. As many have stated already, no team will take him in the Rule 5. Then again, nobody would take Nick Gordon as this point. 

Stuff happens and having someone to catch the ball in CF isn't a bad thing. Andrew Stevenson, a guy with more experience filled that role last year. I hope he is back in St. Paul.

[stringer bell]

4 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

To be clear, Keirsey Jr. is best as depth in AAA. As many have stated already, no team will take him in the Rule 5. Then again, nobody would take Nick Gordon as this point. 

Stuff happens and having someone to catch the ball in CF isn't a bad thing. Andrew Stevenson, a guy with more experience filled that role last year. I hope he is back in St. Paul.

Keirsey would appear to be a three-years-younger version of Stevenson (without the MLB experience) and I think such talent can be found pretty readily. Another similar profile is Mark Contreras. 

[DocBauer]

I'd like to have him back for depth. And who knows, there are guys in their mid to later 20's that turn in to solid bench players/role players, and you need them too.

But not only is he probably not selected, he's behind Buxton, Castro, Martin, Gordon, and probably non 40 man Helman at this point, 1yr older, more experienced at AAA, and has raked there. Even if Gordon is not kept, Keirsey is still down on the list.

That being said, I really do want him in St Paul for 2024 and see if he can take another step. Never a bad thing to have more depth/options.

[ashbury]

Can Keirsey play in the majors? Probably.   Can he lock down a 4th outfielder role?  Uncertain.  Would he do as well as MAT in extended duty in CF in case of injury to the starter?  IMO no, either with the glove or with the bat.

Hard to envision another team investing a 26-man slot on that kind of ceiling.

[DJL44]

10 players picked. 8 pitchers. 2 infielders. 3 Yankees.

[mnfireman]

Twins didn't lose a player...

[nicksaviking]

Two offensive players. One of whom is a 23-year-old who hasn't played above AA and has a career .644 OPS. 

[FlyingFinn]

The Twins did get 4 players in the minor league Rule 5 draft, including a catcher. Don't know that we lost anyone in that draft.

[Reptevia]

“I'm trying to find the team that is (a) looking for a back-up centerfielder, and (b) willing to take a flier on a guy who has never had breakout numbers in the minors, and (c) going to keep him on the MLB roster for an entire season“. The only one that comes to mind is the MN Twins. That said, better options are available internally. This guy is aspiring to be Garlick/Refsnyder/Cave, but he’s not there yet. 

[arby58]

The answer is in - no Twin was taken in today's Rule 5 draft.

[LA Vikes Fan]

Does anyone know anything about the 4 players the Twins took in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft?

[Greglw3]

11 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

A 26 year old putting up those numbers mostly in AA (where he was almost 2 years older than the average player), take a deep dive, he wasn't even a top 5 Center fielder in that league and every player that was better was younger, and some much, much younger. 

I won’t argue the point, seeing as how he was not in the All Star OF for the Texas League. I still think he has a special swing and is due to improve from 26 to 27 (on average 27 being the peak for a ML player). I’m glad he wasn’t drafted in Rule 5. I assume he’s still part of the Twins organization.

[arby58]

23 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Plus Emmanuel Rodriguez on the 40 man roster and playing CF in AA next season. Right now Keirsey is the 4th outfielder for the St. Paul Saints.

The Rule 5 draft was designed precisely to give players like Kiersey a shot in a different organization.

The minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft does serve that purpose, and the Twins were active there.

[AceWrigley]

Nope.

[TwinsDr2021]

14 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

I won’t argue the point, seeing as how he was not in the All Star OF for the Texas League. I still think he has a special swing and is due to improve from 26 to 27 (on average 27 being the peak for a ML player). I’m glad he wasn’t drafted in Rule 5. I assume he’s still part of the Twins organization.

I also hope he stays in the organization players like this can be good depth, But looking at the history of baseball guys like him rarely if ever turn into anything but a bit player at best. (Not meant for you) but people need to realize not every Twins prospect is the exception to the rule, and not every Twins prospect will turn into a future All Star type player.

I have read on here Lee is a future Correa and maybe better, Martin is a all start type player in Kiermaier, Lewis is the next Jeter, Walker is a future HOF type player, Julien is the next Arraez or better. ERod is the next Soto, Raya the next future Cy Young award winner and ON and ON. It is great to have hope and be an optimist but with those type of expectations the odds say ever one of them will be a let down.

[FlyingFinn]

4 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

(Not meant for you) but people need to realize not every Twins prospect is the exception to the rule, and not every Twins prospect will turn into a future All Star type player.

I don't know that anyone is saying Kiersey will be an All Star player. What many of us see is the base stealing and defense. For the most part, you can't teach this to everyone. Therefore, that alone can make him a valuable (and inexpensive) 4th outfielder or shuttle between AAA and the Twins for injuries, etc. Let's see how the bat develops at AAA this season.

[MinnInPa]

yes ..i think this kid will be a very good MLeaguer. IMO better than Kepler.. just look at the #'s ..power, avg, speed..good fielder..nah ..who would want that...SMH

[stringer bell]

27 minutes ago, MinnInPa said:

yes ..i think this kid will be a very good MLeaguer. IMO better than Kepler.. just look at the #'s ..power, avg, speed..good fielder..nah ..who would want that...SMH

Kepler had already played well over 500 games in the major leagues by the time he was Keirsey's age. 

[JD-TWINS]

Sorry - I’m sure I must have missed this, but what’s the compensation if some Team takes a guy, claims a player, from your minor league system in the Rule 5 draft? What’s the deterrent or controlling factor in claiming guys? LMK if not too much trouble. Thanks!

[Mike Sixel]

35 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Sorry - I’m sure I must have missed this, but what’s the compensation if some Team takes a guy, claims a player, from your minor league system in the Rule 5 draft? What’s the deterrent or controlling factor in claiming guys? LMK if not too much trouble. Thanks!

no compensation.

The deterant at the major league level is you have to keep them in the majors.

In the minor league level? 40 man issues. You already have guys you like more, etc.

[TwinsDr2021]

2 hours ago, MinnInPa said:

yes ..i think this kid will be a very good MLeaguer. IMO better than Kepler.. just look at the #'s ..power, avg, speed..good fielder..nah ..who would want that...SMH

Kepler in his age 26 season was 20th in the MVP voting with a .855 OPS in the majors and Keirsey was repeating AA with a .850 OPS. Comparing the two is unfair to both players. Keirsey will most likely not even play in the majors this year unless things go extremely wrong at the MLB level.