Max Value: 3 Reasons Why the Twins Should Trade Max Kepler

[Cody Christie]

Max Kepler’s name has been tied to trade rumors for multiple seasons. After a terrific 2023 campaign, the Twins have three reasons to trade their right fielder.

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Max Kepler has grown up in the Twins organization since signing as a teenager on the international market. There were plenty of ups and downs throughout his professional career. He was the Southern League Player of the Year in 2015 after he finished the season with a .327 batting average, nine home runs, and 18 stolen bases. He was a consensus top-60 prospect entering the 2017 season, and there was hope that he would begin to flourish at the big-league level.

Kepler’s MLB career has been inconsistent on offense while developing into one of baseball’s best defensive right-fielders. From 2016-18, his OPS+ hovered just points below 100 while showing stretches where he could be one of the team’s best hitters. In 2019, he had a breakout season by hitting .252/.336/.519 (.855) with 32 doubles and 36 home runs. Baseballs weren’t being hit out at record rates after 2019, and Kepler’s OPS+ dropped to 97 from 2020-22. Minnesota reportedly attempted to trade Kepler following the season but didn’t like the value being offered in return. 

Minnesota’s payroll is likely dropping for next season, and trading veterans is one avenue to make other roster additions. Here are three reasons why the time is right for a Kepler trade.

1. Kepler's Contract is Expiring
It’s now or never for the Twins to make a trade involving Kepler. He’s in the final year of team control after signing a team-friendly contract extension early in his career. An acquiring team could also extend a qualifying offer to Kepler next winter if he is traded during the current offseason. Eligible players would have received a one-year deal worth $20.3 million this winter, but no players accepted the qualifying offer. Kepler has been worth $17 million or more in every full season, and he’s been worth $20.7 million or more in three seasons, including last year. The Twins could always attempt to trade him at the trade deadline, but then he is a rental player who wouldn’t be eligible for the qualifying offer. 

2. Kepler is Due for Regression
Kepler’s offensive performance in the second half is one of the big reasons the Twins got separation in the division race. In 66 games, he posted a .926 OPS with 17 doubles, two triples, and 12 home runs. It seems likely that there will be some regression in his offensive output when compared to his career totals. Baseball-Reference projects Kepler to post a .746 OPS in 2024 with 21 doubles and 18 home runs. Those totals are decent for a strong defensive player, but other teams might be bought in on the improvements made by Kepler in the second half. Baseball Trade Values has Kepler with an 8.9 surplus value, which is higher than Jorge Polanco even though the latter has an additional year of team control. 

3. Other Corner Outfield Options
The Twins need to upgrade the current roster, including adding a starting center fielder and a playoff-caliber starter. Both of those needs come at a high cost in free agency or trade, which leaves the team looking for flexibility on the roster. Minnesota has other corner outfield options, including Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach, Willi Castro, and Nick Gordon. Castro, a switch-hitter, is the only non-lefty in the group, so there isn’t much of an opportunity to play the platoon advantage. Wallner seems like a natural fit to slide over to right field to take even more advantage of his elite throwing arm. Then, the Twins can mix and match players in left field depending on the matchup. 

Kepler has been in the Twins organization for so long that it’s easy for fans to point out his flaws. There’s no question that he has been a vital role player for a Twins team attempting to return to winning baseball after a decade of ineptitude. Kepler's name made multiple appearaces in the trade proposals created for the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook (Click Here to Download). Some will be sad to see him go, and others will be happy to see him leave. Either way, it seems most likely for Kepler to be wearing another team’s uniform on the first day of spring training.

Do you think the Twins will trade Kepler? How much value does he have after the 2023 season? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[DJL44]

Kepler would be a great trade chit for a rebuilding Twins team but they should plan on winning the Central in 2024. Nick Gordon is barely worth a roster spot, not a real reason to trade your starting RF.

[Parfigliano]

4.  His trade value has never been higher.  Now is the time to deal him hopefully for SP.

[Muppet]

Outside of 2019 he has only been good for 2 months. Lucky those were the last two months of 2023. 

[specialiststeve]

Amazingly folks forget how terrible he was over the last few years at the plate. He has always been a plus defender that is not debatable. But his offensive side has been inconsistent at best! He had a very good second half of the season but the first half he was horrible. 

Understanding that we have options that can be as good or better at a fraction of the cost is really not looking at the big picture. 

Moving him now is really the "smart" move. Allow Larnach the chance to play everyday and either show he is going to be the guy there or that we are ready for the young guys to get a chance as early as next year. 

It's time.. finding the right partner is the key.

[Karbo]

They won't give him away. Depends on who is looking for a LH outfielder and what they have to offer. Wouldn't be a bit surprised if he is here on opening day, but if so, I would be surprised if he survives the trade deadline. Of course, injuries happen and roster building has to take that into acct.

[CRF]

Now is the time to move him. He had a good second half of the season and his trade value is as high as it's going to get.

[awmonahan]

We need to clear salary and Kepler is at his peak value. He's a nice player, but I don't expect the same resuls next year - meaning a potential drop in production while saving $10 million is palatable. Launch, Martin or any of the IF surplus can cover left.

And I would rather hold on to Polianci than Kepler, if we are focused on winning this year. He's a more consistent and better bat with decent defense. 

[Doctor Gast]

I for one will hate to see Kepler leave. If we keep him this year, he'll be our best cOF by having a constantly good season. But odds are that'll be gone the last day of ST like Rogers. Hope they find a good home for him (not NYY, unless Rowson can revolutionize their hitting philosophy).

[rwilfong86]

4 hours ago, CRF said:

Now is the time to move him. He had a good second half of the season and his trade value is as high as it's going to get.

Exactly. 

[darin617]

Even if the Twins weren't trying to cut payroll the right decision is to sell high now and use him as part of a deal for a starting pitcher.

[DJL44]

5 hours ago, CRF said:

Now is the time to move him. He had a good second half of the season and his trade value is as high as it's going to get.

I think his value at next year's deadline will be just about equal to what it is now.

[Linus]

16 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I think his value at next year's deadline will be just about equal to what it is now.

I think trading him this off season will yield better value because the new club could extend the QO. At the deadline there is no QO. Granted this scenario is only valid if Max has a good year. 

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, Linus said:

I think trading him this off season will yield better value because the new club could extend the QO. At the deadline there is no QO. Granted this scenario is only valid if Max has a good year. 

Max isn't getting a QO.

[arby58]

8 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Kepler would be a great trade chit for a rebuilding Twins team but they should plan on winning the Central in 2024. Nick Gordon is barely worth a roster spot, not a real reason to trade your starting RF.

I agree that if Nick Gordon is his replacement I'm less inclined to make a trade. That said, I assume the first shot at a corner outfield spot would be Trevor Larnach. He's been on the cusp of being a bona fide MLB outfielder - probably now or never.

[DocBauer]

I'm really torn on this idea. It's probably his last season in a Twins uniform, so there is the thought to get something for him before losing him. And yes, his trade value has never been higher than right now. Well, OK, maybe after 2019, but still.

On the other had, from about mid to late June on he was the best version of himself he's probably ever been. I haven't forgotten the really poor 2 1/2 years before then, to be sure, but 3 plus months isn't just a SSS that he made actual adjustments to his game.

We already have questions about CF. While I think Wallner has a pretty bright future, he's still going in to his 2nd season, first full year. Larnach isn't proven yet. Martin might not be quite ready. Castro is best as the super utility player he was last year. Gordon is what exactly after a horrendous and injured 2023 but a good 3 months in '22? All other prospects are at least a year away, though there's a couple late bloomers who might be ready to help. 

So now we want to put another hole in the OF besides CF?

I can see reasons to move both Polanco and Kepler. I just see less available replacement options for Kepler. I do think someone needs to give Larnach a real shot, which is why I've been looking to include him in deals to a team looking for LH power. A healthy Larnach, playing almost daily against RHP, could probably crank out a .225-.235 BA and 20 HR and 30 Dbls even without the improvements we've been hoping for, and that he flashes at the end of 2023. Is it possible we're going to get the opportunity to see that in '24?

But then again, if Kepler is gone, we probably need to add a RH bat too, right? To balance things out? What's that going to cost? How much do we even save once Max's $10M is gone and we sign a RH depth piece? Or is this not about saving any $, just his LF bat and defense to a contending team that has pitching to spare?

There's just so many balls spinning in the air right now to build the 2024 Twins that I hope the FO can juggle them all, and keep an eye on them all so one doesn't drop.

[Fat Calvin]

When "those spinning balls in the air" come down, Kep would catch more of them than any other outfielder we currently have.  We need Kepler this year.  If we deal him, our outfield is woefully thin.  The prospect of getting nothing for him if we decide to hold onto him this year doesn't hold water for me.  We've got plenty out of Max for the last four or five years at a very reasonable price. He's coming off a great second half.  We need him now.  We should keep him. 

Polanco, on the other hand, we could trade.  He's got two years left on his team friendly contract.  We're loaded in the infield, especially 2nd base.  We should be able to land a nice player in a trade for Polanco.

[Linus]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Max isn't getting a QO.

If he has a full season next year like his second half he would. Mind you I’m not predicting that but I never thought he would have the second half that he did. Plus if they move him in the off season they can go out and add a right handed outfielder. 

[SteveLV]

Kepler raked in the second half of 2023. Raked. Like 4th best in all of baseball raked.

I would not be shopping him at all, as I would rather try and extend him.

However, if they can't extend him and someone gives up good trade value for a year of Kepler, so be it.

[DJL44]

11 hours ago, Fat Calvin said:

When "those spinning balls in the air" come down, Kep would catch more of them than any other outfielder we currently have.  We need Kepler this year.  If we deal him, our outfield is woefully thin.  The prospect of getting nothing for him if we decide to hold onto him this year doesn't hold water for me.  We've got plenty out of Max for the last four or five years at a very reasonable price. He's coming off a great second half.  We need him now.  We should keep him. 

Polanco, on the other hand, we could trade.  He's got two years left on his team friendly contract.  We're loaded in the infield, especially 2nd base.  We should be able to land a nice player in a trade for Polanco.

This is where I am. Plus, I expect Max can play nearly every day and I don't think Polanco can be healthy for more than half a season anymore.

[rv78]

It's comical how some people value a player based on one season, or one and a half seasons of a player actually being good. Kepler has played 9 seasons and has 1.5 that are worthy of being called good. Reminds me of Buxton and his 9 seasons of playing and having 1.5 seasons of good. Just because they are Twins and have been here for a while doesn't make them expendable or replaceable by someone who could and should and would be better. Crap, it only takes 2 good seasons out of 9 to be better than they are. The rose colored glasses some of you are wearing hasn't won us any championships and continuing to put faith in players like Kepler and Buxton to get us there is a lost cause. They just aren't consistant enough to count on and build around which is exactly what this FO tried to do and it has failed. A different direction is needed and trading Kepler and Polanco to free up salary for an Ace type pitcher should happen sooner rather than later if they are serious about cutting payroll and still contending in the central. It may not get them there in 2024 but it would be a step in the right direction. The youth movement needs to continue.

[Major League Ready]

17 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Max isn't getting a QO.

Kepler's wRC+ was 138 after June 1 and 126 for the year.  Of course he is also a plus defender.  Is it conceivable he does not have a bad April-May next year and ends up at 126 wRC+ he produced in 2022 or even a little higher with a decent start?  If so, what will he get for offers.  Teoscar Hernandez is projected by MLB Trade rumors to get 4/$80M.  Jorge Soler is projected at 3/45.  Hernandez produced a wRC+ of 130 in 2022 and 105 last year.   Soler was at 95 in 2022 and bounced back to 126 last season.  Of course, he has no defensive value.  If Kepler produced a wRC+ of 126 in 2023, you would have to believe his offer would be considerable higher than Soler at which point Kepler would be extremely likely to reject a QO?  Is it really that certain Kepler could not play well enough to get a QO?

[tony&rodney]

9 minutes ago, rv78 said:

free up salary for an Ace type pitcher

That price tag is fairly well set at $25 million per year or up to $43 million per year on a short term contract. Savings of $10 million from trading Max Kepler would not be enough to sign a #4/5 guy hoping for a rebound.

What is your basis for your thinking to add "an Ace type pitcher?" 

I mean, many of us on Twins Daily like the idea, but there is not a single precedent of the Twins signing a top free agent pitcher.

[DJL44]

Just now, Major League Ready said:

Is it really that certain Kepler could not play well enough to get a QO?

If he's worth a QO then he can't be replaced by Trevor Larnach and Nick Gordon for 2024 like the premise of this article. You can't have it both ways. He's certainly not going to get a QO from the penny-pinching Twins because the risk he accepts a $21M contract and blows a hole in the budget is really high.

[TopGunn#22]

We will all continue to debate this until the day comes that the Twins trade Kepler.  Or trade Larnach.  Or trade both in addition to Polanco.  My thoughts on this have been clear.  While Kepler is one of my favorite Twins on this team, you sell high in a case like this.  If you don't trade him and he has a 2024 like his 2022 you missed an opportunity.  If you don't trade him, and he has a 2024 like his second half last year you've had the benefit of him for the short term, but he's priced himself out of your plans in any scenario.  You sell high on him now because you need 2 rotation spots filled and a CF as well.  

Signing Adam Duval and Nick Senzel gives the Twins two RH hitters who can cover any OF spot and Senzel can play 2B & 3B.  Even if Twins ownership wasn't mandating a salary reduction for 2024 you'd still be looking to sell high on Kepler and Polanco.  It's time for the youth movement.  It began last year with Julien, Wallner and Lewis and it should continue in 2024.  

Where is it etched in stone that Castro only has value as a super utility guy?  His defensive metrics in LF were tremendous last year.  He brought an element of speed on the bases that has been missing since Rocco became manager.  Honestly, Rocco would have stuck to twiddling his thumbs waiting for 3-run homers for all eternity despite the rules changes that opened up the running game in 2023.  Castro started stealing bases.  Putting pressure on the defense.  Good things started to happen, and suddenly Rocco decides two months into the season, "Hey, maybe I should be a little more aggressive, I've only attempted like, 5 SB's and it's the end of May!"  

Castro in LF and batting 9th isn't a bad thing.  If the price to pay to get us to a couple good SP's and a CF is Kepler, Polanco, some prospects and Castro in LF for 2024 I can live with that.  

[Linus]

It will be interesting to see how other front offices will value Max. Will they give any weight to the last two months or focus on the prior years

[Drtwins]

I’m not opposed to trading Kepler or Polanco, but the question becomes what fans are expecting in return. Rebuilding teams aren’t looking for 30 y.o. position players, so there goes 1/3 of the possible trade partners. Next, competing teams which are more likely to trade for a Kepler or Polanco type player aren’t going to trade away major league level starters, especially top of the rotation pitchers. The only reason that would make sense to move Kepler or Polanco would be if the Twins are willing to use that money to sign a Snell or Montgomery caliber starter. If this is the case, I’d prefer to move Polanco as the Twins seem to have more established infield commodities.

[Jeff K]

21 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I agree that now is the time.  Wallner is ready for RF and we have others that can be plugged into LF.  Use him plus others to get that #2 pitcher that we need.  I doubt that he can reproduce what he did in the second half of last year so his value at the deadline will be less than what it is now (in part do to the loss of the QO for the acquiring team).  If he does not produce at that level, I doubt that the Twins would tender a QO meaning we lose him for nothing.

I've said it before, Kirilloff might need to move back to the Outfield.

[AlGoreRythm]

2 hours ago, rv78 said:

It's comical how some people value a player based on one season, or one and a half seasons of a player actually being good. Kepler has played 9 seasons and has 1.5 that are worthy of being called good. Reminds me of Buxton and his 9 seasons of playing and having 1.5 seasons of good. Just because they are Twins and have been here for a while doesn't make them expendable or replaceable by someone who could and should and would be better. Crap, it only takes 2 good seasons out of 9 to be better than they are. The rose colored glasses some of you are wearing hasn't won us any championships and continuing to put faith in players like Kepler and Buxton to get us there is a lost cause. They just aren't consistant enough to count on and build around which is exactly what this FO tried to do and it has failed. A different direction is needed and trading Kepler and Polanco to free up salary for an Ace type pitcher should happen sooner rather than later if they are serious about cutting payroll and still contending in the central. It may not get them there in 2024 but it would be a step in the right direction. The youth movement needs to continue.

The Twins could contend in the AL Central right now even if they traded Kepler, Buxton and Polanco for buckets of balls. The division is absolutely terrible, and payroll cuts shouldn't affect this teams ability to compete for a division title.

Now if we're talking about getting through another playoff series, I agree with you.

But I'm not at all worried about the Twins not having the talent to compete for the division, because the other 4 teams are really bad...

[Fezig]

Another reason. All he does is pull the ball. Left field to him is a place to warm up before games.