To Trade, or Not To Trade Max Kepler: That Is the Question

[Cody Schoenmann]

After arguably his best season at the major-league level, Max Kepler's trade value is as high as it ever will be. Should the Twins take advantage of Kepler's sky-high market value or keep the 30-year-old veteran in the pursuit of a World Series run?

Image courtesy of Nick Wosika - USA TODAY Sports

In the classic transcendentalist novel Walden, author Henry David Thoreau wrote, "In any weather, at any hour of the day or night, I have been anxious to improve the nick of time, and notch it on my stick too; to stand on the meeting of two eternities, the past and present, which is precisely the present moment; to toe that line."

The Twins find themselves at the meeting of two eternities, deciding whether or not they should keep the third longest-tenured Minnesota Twins player, Max Kepler, or trade him. Critically analyzing Kepler's past, present, and future is essential when analyzing whether trading him would be in the Twins' best interest. 

The Past
On September 27, 2015, Kepler debuted for the Twins, striking out while pinch-hitting for Twins legend Torii Hunter during a 7-1 victory over the Detroit Tigers. Since then, Kepler has played in 966 games for the Twins, hitting .236/.319/.434 (.753) with 800 hits, 153 home runs, 390 walks, and 709 strikeouts.

Despite posting two above-average seasons with the Twins in 2019 (122 wRC+) and 2020 (109 wRC+), Kepler's tenure with the Twins has consistently been plagued by frustration, vexation, and wasted potential. Interestingly, Kepler, despite posting below-average seasons in 2021 (97 wRC+) and 2022 (95 wRC+), seemingly regained his 2019 Bomba Squad form and posted what was arguably his best season as a Major League Baseball player, hitting .260/.332/.484 (.816) with 24 home runs, generating 2.6 fWAR and a 124 wRC+ over 491 plate appearances.

Halfway through the 2023 season, many who follow the Twins were ready to cut ties with Kepler, struggling for a third straight season, and replace him with the younger Matt Wallner, who was tearing up Triple-A pitching at the time. Luckily, the front office ignored our pleas, and Kepler became a cog in the Twins' resurgent post-All-Star Break lineup, helping the franchise win their first AL Central title since 2020.

It was reported the Twins were shopping Kepler last offseason when his perceived value was much less than it is now, so should the Twins finally execute the decision they have been meandering over for some time now?

The Present
It is late November, and after the Twins exercised Kepler's $10 million team option for 2024, he will be under team control for one more season. For many reasons, above-average veteran players on expiring contracts are enticing to contending teams, and with the corner outfield free agent and trade market being scarce this offseason, teams may be willing to shell out surprisingly favorable offers to the Twins for Kepler's services. 

This train of thought was already expressed nationally when The Athletic's Keith Law wrote that he "sees the upside" with Kepler and wouldn't have been surprised if a team had offered him a 4-5 year contract worth $20-25 million per season on the open market. So, with Kepler's trade value rising, what type of package could the Twins net in return?

If the Twins were to trade Kepler, it would make sense for them to make another position player for a starting pitcher swap, like they did trading Luis Arráez to the Miami Marlins for Pablo López last offseason. Similarly to last offseason, the Twins need a frontline starting pitcher, and they yet again have a surplus of Major League-ready left-handed corner bats, like Kepler, to trade. 

Starting pitchers the Twins could execute this trade for include Edward Cabrera of the Marlins, Alex Cobb of the Giants, and Nestor Cortes of the Yankees. Although these three pitchers possess value and would slot in as the Twins' number two starter behind López, the Twins could instead sign free-agent pitchers of similar value, like Michael Wacha or Seth Lugo, without having to part with their starting right fielder.

The Future
The Twins plan on reducing their payroll this offseason. Regardless, with Kepler costing only $10 million and the Twins not having a reliable corner outfield option beyond Wallner, who will likely be the Opening Day starting left fielder, it would be in the World Series-hopeful Twins best interest to keep Kepler at his current salary.

Suppose the Twins keep Kepler, and he again produces at an above-average rate in 2024. In that case, the Twins will then be tasked with deciding whether to extend Kepler the qualifying offer, offer him a contract extension, or let him walk in free agency.

The 2025 qualifying offer will likely be between $21-22 million, as it currently sits at $20.325 million and steadily increases every season. Offering Kepler, who will be 31-year-old, a four to five-year deal worth $20-25 million would likely come back to haunt the Twins as he is an inconsistent and moderately volatile player who could quickly revert to his late-2020-to-mid-2023 ways, but extending him the one-year, $21-22 million would make sense for both parties.

The Twins could keep an elite defensive corner outfielder, who would be coming off two straight above-average offensive seasons, at a reasonable rate while not committing to a long-term contract that could backfire. On the other hand, Kepler could capitalize off two straight admirable seasons and earn his first big payday at 31 years old.  

Regardless, the Twins front office is tasked with making a tough decision this offseason. They could trade Kepler for an above-average starting pitcher or keep him and ride out his last season under team control in pursuit of their first World Series title since 1991. 

Should the Twins keep or trade Kepler? If the Twins traded Kepler, who would you want them to get in return? Comment below.

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[CRF]

His trade value is never going to be higher than it is now. It's time to move him. 

[Major League Ready]

We just don't have much for OF depth but selling high on a one-year assets for multi-year assets has a lot of upside.  That said the return has to be good given our OF situation.  If Seattle really valued Kepler as part of the return for one of their young pitchers that would be a great long-term move.  Kepler and Polanco for Miller (they are not trading Kirby) would set us up very well for the next few years.  This approach would allow them to go sign an OFer and good BP arm in free agency.

[roger]

Finally, someone acknowledges that the Twins don’t have a lot of corner outfielders who are both ready and a for sure option.

Don’t be surprised if Max signs a short term extension for less than the QO, keeping him at Target Field beyond 2024.

[Whitey333]

Yes it's time to trade him.  We have plenty of cheaper young players that can fill the void.  Trying to get some starting pitching would seem to be the prudent thing to do.

[Coach Wheels]

Trade him, especially if there is actual value for a guy with 800 hits and over 700 strikeouts. You'll never re-sign him after 2024 season so move him now and get more potential.

[Eris]

No to a trade. There were only about 8-10 outfielders who were better in 2023  both offensively and defensively than Max Kepler. Getting an upgrade on both sides of the ball will not be easy. 

[FlyingFinn]

If you think you are getting the Kepler from the last half of 2023 (not the playoffs), keep him. If he's going to return to the guy hitting in the middle of the order in 2021 and 2022 who batted under .220 and couldn't get a total of 100 rbi's, sell high. Do NOT extend him. Rodriguez and Jenkins are coming.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I would trade Kepler for any of the starters you listed. I don’t know that I would automatically slot them in at #2, but all of them could have the potential to get there

[TopGunn#22]

Max is one of my favorite players and I'd hate to see him go.  But I'll bet he does not equal what he did last year and trade him.  If the Twins are looking to contend AND cut payroll, then both Kepler AND Polanco need to be dealt for young, controllable SP.  Cabrera from Miami could probably be had for Polanco straight up.  That could be a start. 

But if the Twins want to take a bigger swing and deal for one of Seattle's SP's like Miller or Woo it would probably take Kepler, Polanco and someone like Marco Raya or David Festa.  A deal like that would net Woo for sure, probably Miller.  Wallner takes over RF and Julien is at 2B (with Lee pushing).  

But we still don't know who is playing CF or LF.  I'd like to get someone like Miller or Woo by including Larnach instead of Kepler and saving Kepler for another deal or just starting him in RF and Wallner in RF.  

The Twins could also sign a 2nd Tier FA like Montas/Giolito/Severino/Wacha to fill out the rotation with Varland moving to the bullpen.  

Any way you cut it, I think we see a trade or trades that send Kepler, Polanco and Larnach out.  Values for Kepler & Polanco are just too favorable not to and Larnach needs a change of scenery.  

[Jeff K]

The Twins outfield depth is questionable.  Kirilloff can move back to the outfield to help alleviate that, although his injury history is a concern.  That said, I do think the Twins should sell while his value is high primarily because this is his last year of his contract.  I don't think extending Kepler makes sense as our depth is a year or two away and I don't think the Twins can trust Kepler's 2nd half to carryover.  It's all gambling when you make these moves, but opening up payroll with Kepler and Polanco should be helpful especially in unlocking our young infield talent where we have excellent depth.

[saviking]

Kep is a good value at 10 mill. No way I would pay him 21 mill next year and even if we wanted to we don't have the money. So keeping Max is basically a one year rental at 10 million. I could see the Twins keeping Kepler unless they get an offer they couldn't refuse.

[tony&rodney]

Max Kepler understandably draws a wide range of thoughts concerning his abilities to sustain his excellence from the latter half of the 2023 season. 

I have no idea of his value as a straight exchange for another player. Edward Cabrera is a gamble for any team that could pay off in a big way. Miami likely keeps him. I thought that perhaps an exchange of players who might benefit from a new team occur. 

If the Twins are going to add iffy pitchers, it makes sense to add either Wacha or Lugo because these guys can be solid. It doesn't make sense to trade anyone with decent value for a guy like Cortes. 

Conversations last offseason included trading Kepler. The Twins never found a deal worthwhile. This offseason there may be a repeat. Kepler is a good player and there isn't any reason to trade him unless the return clearly makes the 2024 team better.

[Major League Ready]

The thought of a QO next year had not occurred to me.  Kepler had 2.4 WAR for the 2nd half of 2023.  If he plays close to that level all year in 2024, he would get a very healthy offer in free agency and the QO would be declined.  I am not predicting he produces 5 WAR next year but 3.5 or 4 would not be shocking at which point he gets a 3 year offer and the QO would be rejected.  It's an interesting twist.

[gil4]

Quote

... he is an inconsistent and moderately volatile player who could quickly revert to his late-2020-to-mid-2023 ways

Teams who would trade for him know this. Unless someone seriously overvalues and overpays, I'd say keep him and roll the dice on him having finally figured something out.  It's no better than a 50-50 shot that 2023 2nd half Kep shows up, but if all they will pay for is that 50-50 shot, we might as well keep him.

[JD-TWINS]

In “win now” mode & there’s no suitable depth behind him this season. Can’t trade Kepler - must trade Polanco………this frees up $$ for pitching. If he’s just OK this season and somebody is pushing for a OF spot from St Paul, we can move Kepler at the deadline.

FA pitching is as affordable as many other trade options. Lugo - Maeda - others are available in the $11-$13M range per year.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Now is the best time to get a good return for Kep. As Kep's stats show, he has been an up and down player offensively. He either can't or won't listen to the sage advice of many of us knowledgeable TD posters and hit the ball to the opposite field. (OK I admit that is debatable, but it is one of my pet peeves). This has resulted in Kep hitting numerous 2 hoppers to numerous second basemen. His defense has been solid.  Reminds me of an Elvis Pressley song: "It's now or never".

[Badjuggler]

Trading Kepler for pitching is a no-brainer. Sell high. And it's a good bet his value will never be higher with his history and birth date.

[PatPfund]

As a few have refreshingly noted, the supposed OF 'surplus' doesn't exist. Sure it is better than last year when things got so bad Gilberto Celestino was a regular starter (a guy who struggled to start in St Paul this year and has since been released). But right now we have Wallner, Kepler, and a bunch of question marks (Gordon? Castro? Larnach? Martin? Keirsey? Re-sing MAT? Another FA or trade person?)

Which doesn't mean you don't trade Kepler; the Twins should explore the market and make the move that best helps for next year. We could definitely use second-half-Max at $10mill next year, but if he can fetch higher value, then do it. (Wallner can go to RF; Kirilloff, the Question Marks and any signees can duke it out for CF/LF both in Spring Training and/or in St Paul. But trading Max likely means adding another vet, so you have to factor that in.)

And please just say no to Cortes. I laughed out loud at the 'slot right behind Lopez' nonsense. Last year he would have slotted in right behind Randy Dobnak in AAA. We can sign better lower tier FAs.

[FlyingFinn]

4 minutes ago, PatPfund said:

As a few have refreshingly noted, the supposed OF 'surplus' doesn't exist.

Lewis in CF changes our OF depth a lot (or LF if Buxton has a miracle recovery). That has been discussed in numerous other threads so I won't dive any deeper.

[chpettit19]

What's the return and how are you filling 2 OF spots after the trade? Those are 2 really hard things to get right if you're looking to improve in 2024 while also slashing payroll.

I don't expect Kepler to be able to maintain his 2nd half production for the whole 2024 season so if someone is willing to give a return that is more inline with a package that reflects his 2nd half more than the last 3 years combined I think that's a win in the trade, but then how are you filling 2 OF spots, including CF for 2024? Larnach is never going to be the defender Kepler is so you'd be betting something finally clicks and he's a significantly better hitter than Kepler. I think you lose that bet. Is there a cOF on the FA market that is likely to be a better all around player than Kepler in 2024 while not being too expensive to fit in the new, lower payroll? I don't think so. Same thing for Gordon. Is the team better off with Castro as an everyday LFer or the utility guy? I'd argue very strongly the utility guy role. Can Austin Martin hit the ground running as an everyday LFer and the team be better than 2023? I'd argue no.

If you're just trying to maximize return on an individual asset, this is clearly the time you'll get the most value for Kepler. If you're trying to compete in 2024 the equation gets much more complicated.

[darin617]

Flip him for a pitcher with at least 2 years of team control. Or add him along with some prospects for a blockbuster deal.

The same should be done with Polonco and it's not about clearing money, it's about trading players in a weak market and they are relatively cheap as well. So the returns couldn't be better. 

 

[darin617]

2 hours ago, Eris said:

No to a trade. There were only about 8-10 outfielders who were better in 2023  both offensively and defensively than Max Kepler. Getting an upgrade on both sides of the ball will not be easy. 

So then he leaves as a free agent after 2024 and you got nothing? Nope. There are always OF available for cheap if the Twins don't feel they have the depth to replace Kepler.

Maybe the Twins think about Brooks Lee in the outfield. Right now his only possible position is second base. Then you have Polonco & Julien there for now. 

[Doctor Gast]

Kepler is a very good hitter that was hit by a triple whami, switching a juiced ball for a dead ball, pitchers adjusting to the elevated swing & the shift, Although Kepler tried to adjust, it was insurmountable & his production tanked, Now at least the absent of the shift, Kepler was able to find his swing. Now that he's found his swing the real Kepler is back. For his last year, his trade value is reasonable. I don't think the Twin will want to offer Kepler a QO, so they are motivated to deal him but maybe a short reasonable extention if they don't get the deal they want.

[darin617]

Adam Duvall and Nick Senzel both should be on the Twins radar. 

Duvall can play in the OF as well as 1st base. A decent right handed bat with some power that the Twins could use. 

Senzel could be the Buxton crutch in Centerfield and has played in the infield as well. So he is another righthanded bat with versatility. He won't match MAT with the glove but should be cheap.

[Doctor Gast]

In cOF we have Kepler, Wallner, Castro, Gordon, Larnach & Kiriloff all capable, proven & bat LH. We aren't deep in this area? Don't shout too loud this FO will resign Gallo.

I don't think FO are interested in offering Kepler QO next year, In 2022 we were desperate in the BP. Yet we traded our only proven closer Rogers (because it was his last year of availibity) & took a risk on  very risky unproven Duffy & proven terrible Pagan & it all proven absolutely disasterous. Although Kepler is our best cOF, we are deep enough where this FO will move Kepler (not that I agree) with any offer close to their liking unless another FO will offer them a deal they can't refuse on one of the other cOFs.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, PatPfund said:

As a few have refreshingly noted, the supposed OF 'surplus' doesn't exist. Sure it is better than last year when things got so bad Gilberto Celestino was a regular starter (a guy who struggled to start in St Paul this year and has since been released). But right now we have Wallner, Kepler, and a bunch of question marks (Gordon? Castro? Larnach? Martin? Keirsey? Re-sing MAT? Another FA or trade person?)

Which doesn't mean you don't trade Kepler; the Twins should explore the market and make the move that best helps for next year. We could definitely use second-half-Max at $10mill next year, but if he can fetch higher value, then do it. (Wallner can go to RF; Kirilloff, the Question Marks and any signees can duke it out for CF/LF both in Spring Training and/or in St Paul. But trading Max likely means adding another vet, so you have to factor that in.)

And please just say no to Cortes. I laughed out loud at the 'slot right behind Lopez' nonsense. Last year he would have slotted in right behind Randy Dobnak in AAA. We can sign better lower tier FAs.

Castro played in 124 games - 358 AB’s - hit .257 & had a 106 OPS plus with 33 steals……..2.6 WAR and played about 65-70% of the time. I agree that trading Kepler isn’t bright because of lack of proven options in the Corner spots. I do not have a problem with us starting Willi Castro as often as needed in CF! Have Buxton/Gordon/Martin theoretically as depth, with Castro being the lead.

Kepler plays until he doesn’t perform up to the deadline. If he’s playing well we’re set - if not, we give someone performing in St Paul a shot. Other option is to get somebody other than Kirilloff at 1B & move him to LF - Wallner to right.

[Karbo]

If there was a good pitcher with multiple years of control I could see a trade of either Kep or Polo, but mot both. I wonder if maybe they should wait and see how they each look. There is always the trade deadline where the value may even be better, or not.

[PatPfund]

2 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Lewis in CF changes our OF depth a lot (or LF if Buxton has a miracle recovery). That has been discussed in numerous other threads so I won't dive any deeper.

Yeah, well except for the part where Royce has shown no interest in the position since tearing his knee up out there, and the team isn't pushing him to do it, it sounds like a great plan. (To fill up discussion threads)

[Riverbrian]

I completely gave up on Kepler and Gallo last June. 

I would have released both last June for nothing. I said it then, I felt it strongly to my core and I still stand by it today regardless of the Kepler turnaround for a couple of months. . 

I will not act like Kepler is all of a sudden valuable. After 2.5 years of sub par play... I would have released him in June and given his job to anyone. It would be hypocritical of me to say... gotta have him now... when I would have let him go and paid him to not play.