Has Louie Varland Potentially Pitched Himself Out of the Rotation?

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins knew they were going to the postseason for a matter of weeks before they had clinched the division. Working to get their roster in order for a run, they needed to work on the bullpen. Louie Varland went to St. Paul with that goal in mind, and then he proved it was an intelligent ask. What if he was too good, though?

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Louie Varland even making the big leagues is a feat in and of itself - the former Concordia-St. Paul Golden Bears pitcher was a 15th-round pick in 2019. That’s relatively rarefied air to make something out of yourself at the highest level, but if you’ve followed along, his desire to be great isn’t normal either.

Last season, Varland appeared in the big leagues to pitch a game for the Twins against the New York Yankees in the Bronx. At just 24 years old and barely removed from pitching for a Division II college, he was in The Show. Posting a 3.81 ERA across five starts last season, Varland looked the part of a major league pitcher.

This season, Minnesota acquired depth that would allow them to trend toward a divisional crown. They traded for Pablo Lopez to front the rotation, pushing Bailey Ober out and into Triple-A. This maneuvering also meant that Varland had slid one more rung down the depth chart. And having one of the best pitching rotations in franchise history resulted in Varland starting just ten games with the Twins in his second major league season.

Wanting to bolster the bullpen for a postseason run, Varland was told to focus on letting it fly at Triple-A. He would work his way back alongside veteran starter Chris Paddack, and the bullpen was the ticket for each of them. Without needing to focus on energy conservation, Varland could air out his two-pitch mix in short burst stints (he reached 100.1 mph in his first relief appearance with the Saints in September).

Debuting as a reliever with the Twins on September 6, he worked 12 innings across seven outings. He allowed only six hits and a pair of runs (both on solo homers) and posted a ridiculous 17/1 K/BB. Not only had he emerged as a bullpen arm for Rocco Baldelli, but he looked the part of an absolute weapon.

As a starter, Varland had shown an ability to get outs while doing so as a fourth or fifth option in the rotation. When coming out of the bullpen, he had dialed the fastball up to triple-digits while routinely sitting around 98 mph (his fastball velocity averaged 94.6 mph in July while bumping to 97.5 mph in September). The velocity uptick was notable, but he also brandished an improved cutter, a pitch that could get in on the hands of the opposition.

Before Varland agreed on the bullpen plan, he talked with Minnesota’s leadership, expressing a desire to remain a starter.

"I believe the best version of myself is a starter," Varland told reporters in September. "Starters also get paid. I want to stay a starters as long as I can."

Pitching out of the rotation is something the St. Paul native has always done, and it’s the same role he has worked to elevate himself to in the big leagues. Money and glory come while working every fifth day, and his preparation has been geared towards that for years.

But his outstanding performance in relief late last year might be too good to ignore - and too tempting for the Twins to pass up. 

Speaking on the matter during a recent Gleeman and the Geek podcast, Aaron Gleeman noted just how special Baldelli believes Varland can be in relief. Convincing Varland of the same has to be part of the process for Baldelli and the Twins. 

Working in the bullpen after initially being a starter isn’t something new. Jhoan Duran was a starting prospect before dialing it up to 103 mph and emerging as the Twins closer. Joe Nathan, Glen Perkins, and plenty of other names have moved to the bullpen after experiencing life in the rotation. The bullpen is no longer banishment for less talented arms, it is a place where special talent can thrive.

Over the offseason, Varland will continue operating with a plan that has him returning as a starter. He’ll eventually have conversations with multiple people involved for Minnesota, and his future role may not be decided for some time. We are likely a ways from seeing how this ultimately plays out, but adding another lockdown leverage arm to a stable with Duran and Griffin Jax seems like a come-up for the Twins.

The Twins have witnessed what Varland can provide in relief, though, and that might be too hard to ignore.

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[FlyingFinn]

No, Varland will be #5 in the rotation or the next man up if we sign someone that would start the season ahead of him (assuming no injuries - a big assumption).

[JD-TWINS]

I’m pretty confident that at the end of August the Twins told Varland he would be back in ‘24 as a starter.

Stewart - Jax - Varland - Duran ……… .Funderburk - Thielbar is a pretty good start for a ‘24 Pen - right? Could consider a potential signing of Pagan if both sides are looking for continuity?

Getting Varland to believe he’ll be paid seems to be a big motivator…….maybe an early sign candidate mid-year?

In the end, his desire to start - the Twins probable promise to leave him as a starter - his value as a starter, all probably outweigh his potential (the potential) of him making our Pen elite.

[Riverbrian]

Emilio Pagan threw 69 Innings to lead all of our relievers. 

Bailey Ober threw 144 innings. Lopez threw 194 innings. 

It is really kind of simple. Get your best pitchers... more innings. 

 

 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

This is not a black and white scenario.  Injuries will happen.  Pitcher effectiveness will change.

There is a lot of offseason to go:  Gray, Maeda, Pagan... Many decisions have to be made before Varland will know what 2024 looks like.

[Azviking101]

I really hope they can convince him to stick in the pen starting next year. Twins options with him are elite reliever or number 5 starter. 
 

[Guest]

Varland's got to cut down on his HR/9 rate to fully realize his potential either as a RP or SP, but especially as a SP.

[ashbury]

Quote

But his outstanding performance in relief late last year might be too good to ignore believe

FTFY.

Varland's relief numbers in September were buoyed by an unsustainable .191 BA on balls in play; across the majors in 2023 that number was .297, similar to most years.  For reference, Jhoan Duran had a more typical .301 BABIP while putting up his stellar numbers.  I trust one more than the other.

The other side of the coin was Louie's work in the Wild Card series, where his 0.00 ERA told the story less well than his 3.00 WHIP, which doesn't even reflect the frightening fly ball by Matt Chapman that backed MAT to the wall.  Everything's small sample in this reliever discussion about him, but I'm not sold.

His larger sample of work as a starter in 2023 was up and down, as his 5.30 ERA in those games attests.

Young-ish, but not really young, about to turn 26 in December, he's much less of a sure thing to me in either role than some believe.  A good starter is more of an asset than most relievers, and I'd let him try to continue in that role to see if he has a bit more growth left in him.  If that doesn't pan out, there's still always the bullpen, but again there is need for further improvement if he is to be some kind of lights-out weapon for the manager.

As pointed out, his low draft status to begin with means that even if he turns out to be "just a guy in the bullpen," he's already beaten the odds against him.

 

 

 

[DJL44]

I'm interested in seeing what Varland can do with that cutter in the rotation.

The lesson to learn here is you can turn most 5th starters into good relievers (see also Griffin Jax). I'd like to see the Twins grab some marginal starters with MLB experience (the kind who get minor league contracts because they have a 5+ ERA) and convert them to relief in AAA. It seems a cheaper way to make relievers than it is to buy them retail.

[Linus]

I love watching Louie pitch. He works fast and throws strikes. However if he wants to remain a starter he has to develop his secondary pitches which are not very good right now. His cutter was better out of the pen because he threw it harder but no so much as a starter. This will be the deciding factor in where he ends up. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

Yes, his stuff plays up better in the bullpen than in the rotation. Excited to see how it translates to 2024 ongoing.

[chpettit19]

I think a solid approach is to give Louie another year as a starter to try to take the next step. He has the fastball to build a repertoire around to become more than he is now. But he's not exactly young for a guy still trying to get higher than a 4 or 5 starter so I think 2024 would be my last year giving him a shot at establishing himself as a rotation option. If he can't make the next step (and there's nothing wrong with that) then I'd look to do like this year and move him to the pen late in the year, but for good this time.

The other thing that plays into this is the guys coming behind him in the system. Can SWR, Festa, Raya, etc. jump him in the rotation pecking order by this time next year? Lopez, Ryan, Ober, and Paddack are likely rotation locks going into 2024 and 2025. I'd think the plan is to fill the 5th spot in 2024 with someone who has a good chance to replicate Gray's numbers from this year. Is that person also locked up for 2025? Varland is likely starter #6 for 2024, basically filling the Ober role from this year. If he's still in that role for 2025 that means the system has failed to produce more guys and that's not good. So, I think best case is to have him fill the Ober role in 2024 and move to the pen in 2025 if he hasn't taken the next step in 2024.

[Karbo]

IMO it all depends on what happens this winter. If they re-sign Gray (doubtful) or pick up another 2-3 type starter, give Varland a choice. Stay stretched out @AAA or pitch out of the pen in the majors. To me, it would be a no brainer to go to the pen to stay in the Majors, but that's just me.

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

Given that Varland has an option left and he wants to remain a starter, The Twins should plan around him starting the year at AAA. If everyone is healthy late in the year (unlikely), he can go to the bullpen and contribute down the stretch. If someone goes down early, we have a cheap, solid #5.

[IndianaTwin]

48 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I'm interested in seeing what Varland can do with that cutter in the rotation.

The lesson to learn here is you can turn most 5th starters into good relievers (see also Griffin Jax). I'd like to see the Twins grab some marginal starters with MLB experience (the kind who get minor league contracts because they have a 5+ ERA) and convert them to relief in AAA. It seems a cheaper way to make relievers than it is to buy them retail.

Particularly if you are shopping at Dior. 😃

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

This is not a black and white scenario.  Injuries will happen.  Pitcher effectiveness will change.

There is a lot of offseason to go:  Gray, Maeda, Pagan... Many decisions have to be made before Varland will know what 2024 looks like.

Exactly... The front office can't even predict what will happen in the off-season... let alone us mere mortals. 

It's a nice to have someone like Varland who can fill into the cracks. 

 

[spanman2]

2 hours ago, ashbury said:

FTFY.

Varland's relief numbers in September were buoyed by an unsustainable .191 BA on balls in play; across the majors in 2023 that number was .297, similar to most years.  For reference, Jhoan Duran had a more typical .301 BABIP while putting up his stellar numbers.  I trust one more than the other.

The other side of the coin was Louie's work in the Wild Card series, where his 0.00 ERA told the story less well than his 3.00 WHIP, which doesn't even reflect the frightening fly ball by Matt Chapman that backed MAT to the wall.  Everything's small sample in this reliever discussion about him, but I'm not sold.

His larger sample of work as a starter in 2023 was up and down, as his 5.30 ERA in those games attests.

Young-ish, but not really young, about to turn 26 in December, he's much less of a sure thing to me in either role than some believe.  A good starter is more of an asset than most relievers, and I'd let him try to continue in that role to see if he has a bit more growth left in him.  If that doesn't pan out, there's still always the bullpen, but again there is need for further improvement if he is to be some kind of lights-out weapon for the manager.

As pointed out, his low draft status to begin with means that even if he turns out to be "just a guy in the bullpen," he's already beaten the odds against him.

 

 

 

Insightful takes...

[jorgenswest]

Whichever role he lands in, he needs to find a swing and miss pitch to help with right handed batters. I think the cutter is helping him more with left handed hitters. Like Ryan, he is very fastball reliant and both he and Ryan will really freed to develop a pitch that keeps the right handed bats off balance. I think both will get there.

If Varland remains fastball mix reliant, he will have pitched himself out of the rotation for lack of an effective breaking ball.

[TopGunn#22]

This is a wonderful "problem" to have.  We waited for things to turn around for Duran, both health-wise and-command wise and he didn't quite get there and he's flourished as a closer.  The Twins are at the same point with Matt Canterino.  You could look at guys like Winder, SWR and others.  A STARTER is always more impactful than a relief pitcher simply due to the innings pitched.

A lot of this depends on what we do through trades and/or free agency in the off season.  I've advocated considering both Eduardo Rodriguez and Trevor Bauer.  Depending on the price points, one or both of these guys could be in play.  Realistically, one of those two and a smaller signing of a Jake Odorizzi-type would give the Twins adequate depth for their rotation.  A bullpen of Duran, Stewart, Jax, and Funderburk is a good start.  Maybe Theilbar, maybe Pagan.  Guys like Varland and Canterino could be huge weapons.  It's a good problem to have.  I'd go into 2024 with Varland being a starter in mind, but if things fall into place or change, I liked what he did out of the pen.

[tony&rodney]

Through the end of May, in 8 starts, Varland was a quality starter. After 3 substandard starts in June, Varland was sent to St. Paul and never made another start for the Twins. When called back to the Twins team in September, Varland was good in relief. 

Varland wants to be a starter and he had a strong start to 2023 before the Twins lost faith in him due to the failed starts. A decision will need to be made before Spring Training on how best to utilize the inexperienced Varland. 

If the Twins replay the Lopez-Arraez trade again this offseason to bring in a very good starting pitcher, Varland may need to begin in St. Paul or be used as a relief pitcher. 

Without a signing or trade for a very good starting pitcher, The Twins should cast their lot with Varland. He has quite a bit of upside and it is real likely he is adding to and refining his pitches during the offseason. I'm perfectly fine with trusting Louie to be inked into the rotation for 2024.

[Nine of twelve]

I think it's a good idea to see how he does as a starter in 2024. But there are many pitchers who find that they have much better success as a reliever than as a starter. Jax is a good recent example. It wouldn't surprise me to see Varland turn out the same way.

[stringer bell]

I think Varland got himself a ticket to the Opening Day roster with his relief appearances at the end of the season. If he doesn't make the rotation, he will start the season in the bullpen. When a vacancy arises, the Twins might turn to him, but stretch him out gradually from his multi-inning reliever role to full-fledged starter.

[KirbyDome89]

On 10/25/2023 at 10:37 AM, ashbury said:

FTFY.

Varland's relief numbers in September were buoyed by an unsustainable .191 BA on balls in play; across the majors in 2023 that number was .297, similar to most years.  For reference, Jhoan Duran had a more typical .301 BABIP while putting up his stellar numbers.  I trust one more than the other.

The other side of the coin was Louie's work in the Wild Card series, where his 0.00 ERA told the story less well than his 3.00 WHIP, which doesn't even reflect the frightening fly ball by Matt Chapman that backed MAT to the wall.  Everything's small sample in this reliever discussion about him, but I'm not sold.

His larger sample of work as a starter in 2023 was up and down, as his 5.30 ERA in those games attests.

Young-ish, but not really young, about to turn 26 in December, he's much less of a sure thing to me in either role than some believe.  A good starter is more of an asset than most relievers, and I'd let him try to continue in that role to see if he has a bit more growth left in him.  If that doesn't pan out, there's still always the bullpen, but again there is need for further improvement if he is to be some kind of lights-out weapon for the manager.

As pointed out, his low draft status to begin with means that even if he turns out to be "just a guy in the bullpen," he's already beaten the odds against him.

Honestly I chuckled at Varland's penchant for giving up dingers being downplayed in the article. He struggled keeping the ball in the park as a starter, and that didn't change as a reliever, albeit in a very SSS. You can't be a "weapon," particularly in the pen, if you're giving up homers roughly 2x as often as the average MLB pitcher. 

[DocBauer]

On 10/25/2023 at 6:55 PM, tony&rodney said:

Through the end of May, in 8 starts, Varland was a quality starter. After 3 substandard starts in June, Varland was sent to St. Paul and never made another start for the Twins. When called back to the Twins team in September, Varland was good in relief. 

Varland wants to be a starter and he had a strong start to 2023 before the Twins lost faith in him due to the failed starts. A decision will need to be made before Spring Training on how best to utilize the inexperienced Varland. 

If the Twins replay the Lopez-Arraez trade again this offseason to bring in a very good starting pitcher, Varland may need to begin in St. Paul or be used as a relief pitcher. 

Without a signing or trade for a very good starting pitcher, The Twins should cast their lot with Varland. He has quite a bit of upside and it is real likely he is adding to and refining his pitches during the offseason. I'm perfectly fine with trusting Louie to be inked into the rotation for 2024.

This is where I'm at.

I'm so surprised by short term memory. Varland DEBUTED at Yankee stadium in 2022 and was solid where a lot, if not most, rookies, might melt. And while he wasn't great, he had a solid rookie debut in 5 starts. If memory recalls correctly, didn't he also win a game against the WS Astros?

As pointed out by the quote in my post, Varland got his shot at the rotation after Ober. But he was also good to very good for his first 5 or 6 starts. And then the HR bug hit. And now we hear about his new sweeper. And I get why Rocco would get excited about another quality arm for his pen and think the guy could be "lights out". But we still have ZERO idea if Varland is a #2 or a #4 SP right NOW.  Why on earth would you move a potential #2-3 starting pitcher to the pen this early?

I think he might be a good to great RP. And I object to the whole age idea in regard to prospects, not just due to covid and missing a year, but to prospects needing more than a solid half season or so to firmly establish how good they might be. I LIKE what I've seen from Varland as a starter initially. I'd love to see what his new sweeper is like in his repertoire as a starter. And I believe that's where he should be for now. 

I WANT another 2023 debate how it's unfair "someone" has to begin the season in AAA. Varland might just turn out to be a great RP. But I would never turn a rotation arm to the pen this early with the stuff he's got.

[DJwessmix]

Thing is, he's good as a starter. But he's great as a reliever! Completely different pitcher, just dominating hitters.

Durán, Jax, Varland, Stewart, Canterino (he'll be in Twins bullpen by May, June), Thielbar. I hope Balazovic goes to Driveline this off-season and can get back to triple digits. If he can, watch out! That would be a huge upgrade. Though, if we had kept Canó, Hoffman, and Coloumbe last year, we'd be sitting pretty already.

[Twins33]

In 2022 I started to have the belief that he should be converted to a reliever. I haven’t stopped thinking it since. I’m completely fine if he proves me wrong. 

[jorgenswest]

The Twins will should plan for 7 pitchers needing to make 8 or more starts and they will probably have a 8th starter with 5.

Last year Ober was number 6 and Varland 7 to begin season. If they add a starter, Varland is their best option for number 6 with Woods-Richardson and Festa following. I would Varland start in AAA and expect he will be needed in the rotation. If Woods-Richardson and Festa step it up then they might convert him to the bullpen during the season.