Has Louie Varland Potentially Pitched Himself Out of the Rotation?

No, Varland will be #5 in the rotation or the next man up if we sign someone that would start the season ahead of him (assuming no injuries - a big assumption).

This is not a black and white scenario.  Injuries will happen.  Pitcher effectiveness will change.

There is a lot of offseason to go:  Gray, Maeda, Pagan... Many decisions have to be made before Varland will know what 2024 looks like.

I really hope they can convince him to stick in the pen starting next year. Twins options with him are elite reliever or number 5 starter. 
 

I'm interested in seeing what Varland can do with that cutter in the rotation.

The lesson to learn here is you can turn most 5th starters into good relievers (see also Griffin Jax). I'd like to see the Twins grab some marginal starters with MLB experience (the kind who get minor league contracts because they have a 5+ ERA) and convert them to relief in AAA. It seems a cheaper way to make relievers than it is to buy them retail.

I love watching Louie pitch. He works fast and throws strikes. However if he wants to remain a starter he has to develop his secondary pitches which are not very good right now. His cutter was better out of the pen because he threw it harder but no so much as a starter. This will be the deciding factor in where he ends up. 

Given that Varland has an option left and he wants to remain a starter, The Twins should plan around him starting the year at AAA. If everyone is healthy late in the year (unlikely), he can go to the bullpen and contribute down the stretch. If someone goes down early, we have a cheap, solid #5.

2 hours ago, ashbury said:

FTFY.

Varland's relief numbers in September were buoyed by an unsustainable .191 BA on balls in play; across the majors in 2023 that number was .297, similar to most years.  For reference, Jhoan Duran had a more typical .301 BABIP while putting up his stellar numbers.  I trust one more than the other.

The other side of the coin was Louie's work in the Wild Card series, where his 0.00 ERA told the story less well than his 3.00 WHIP, which doesn't even reflect the frightening fly ball by Matt Chapman that backed MAT to the wall.  Everything's small sample in this reliever discussion about him, but I'm not sold.

His larger sample of work as a starter in 2023 was up and down, as his 5.30 ERA in those games attests.

Young-ish, but not really young, about to turn 26 in December, he's much less of a sure thing to me in either role than some believe.  A good starter is more of an asset than most relievers, and I'd let him try to continue in that role to see if he has a bit more growth left in him.  If that doesn't pan out, there's still always the bullpen, but again there is need for further improvement if he is to be some kind of lights-out weapon for the manager.

As pointed out, his low draft status to begin with means that even if he turns out to be "just a guy in the bullpen," he's already beaten the odds against him.

 

 

 

Insightful takes...

Whichever role he lands in, he needs to find a swing and miss pitch to help with right handed batters. I think the cutter is helping him more with left handed hitters. Like Ryan, he is very fastball reliant and both he and Ryan will really freed to develop a pitch that keeps the right handed bats off balance. I think both will get there.

If Varland remains fastball mix reliant, he will have pitched himself out of the rotation for lack of an effective breaking ball.

This is a wonderful "problem" to have.  We waited for things to turn around for Duran, both health-wise and-command wise and he didn't quite get there and he's flourished as a closer.  The Twins are at the same point with Matt Canterino.  You could look at guys like Winder, SWR and others.  A STARTER is always more impactful than a relief pitcher simply due to the innings pitched.

A lot of this depends on what we do through trades and/or free agency in the off season.  I've advocated considering both Eduardo Rodriguez and Trevor Bauer.  Depending on the price points, one or both of these guys could be in play.  Realistically, one of those two and a smaller signing of a Jake Odorizzi-type would give the Twins adequate depth for their rotation.  A bullpen of Duran, Stewart, Jax, and Funderburk is a good start.  Maybe Theilbar, maybe Pagan.  Guys like Varland and Canterino could be huge weapons.  It's a good problem to have.  I'd go into 2024 with Varland being a starter in mind, but if things fall into place or change, I liked what he did out of the pen.

Through the end of May, in 8 starts, Varland was a quality starter. After 3 substandard starts in June, Varland was sent to St. Paul and never made another start for the Twins. When called back to the Twins team in September, Varland was good in relief. 

Varland wants to be a starter and he had a strong start to 2023 before the Twins lost faith in him due to the failed starts. A decision will need to be made before Spring Training on how best to utilize the inexperienced Varland. 

If the Twins replay the Lopez-Arraez trade again this offseason to bring in a very good starting pitcher, Varland may need to begin in St. Paul or be used as a relief pitcher. 

Without a signing or trade for a very good starting pitcher, The Twins should cast their lot with Varland. He has quite a bit of upside and it is real likely he is adding to and refining his pitches during the offseason. I'm perfectly fine with trusting Louie to be inked into the rotation for 2024.

I think it's a good idea to see how he does as a starter in 2024. But there are many pitchers who find that they have much better success as a reliever than as a starter. Jax is a good recent example. It wouldn't surprise me to see Varland turn out the same way.

On 10/25/2023 at 10:37 AM, ashbury said:

FTFY.

Varland's relief numbers in September were buoyed by an unsustainable .191 BA on balls in play; across the majors in 2023 that number was .297, similar to most years.  For reference, Jhoan Duran had a more typical .301 BABIP while putting up his stellar numbers.  I trust one more than the other.

The other side of the coin was Louie's work in the Wild Card series, where his 0.00 ERA told the story less well than his 3.00 WHIP, which doesn't even reflect the frightening fly ball by Matt Chapman that backed MAT to the wall.  Everything's small sample in this reliever discussion about him, but I'm not sold.

His larger sample of work as a starter in 2023 was up and down, as his 5.30 ERA in those games attests.

Young-ish, but not really young, about to turn 26 in December, he's much less of a sure thing to me in either role than some believe.  A good starter is more of an asset than most relievers, and I'd let him try to continue in that role to see if he has a bit more growth left in him.  If that doesn't pan out, there's still always the bullpen, but again there is need for further improvement if he is to be some kind of lights-out weapon for the manager.

As pointed out, his low draft status to begin with means that even if he turns out to be "just a guy in the bullpen," he's already beaten the odds against him.

Honestly I chuckled at Varland's penchant for giving up dingers being downplayed in the article. He struggled keeping the ball in the park as a starter, and that didn't change as a reliever, albeit in a very SSS. You can't be a "weapon," particularly in the pen, if you're giving up homers roughly 2x as often as the average MLB pitcher. 

Thing is, he's good as a starter. But he's great as a reliever! Completely different pitcher, just dominating hitters.

Durán, Jax, Varland, Stewart, Canterino (he'll be in Twins bullpen by May, June), Thielbar. I hope Balazovic goes to Driveline this off-season and can get back to triple digits. If he can, watch out! That would be a huge upgrade. Though, if we had kept Canó, Hoffman, and Coloumbe last year, we'd be sitting pretty already.

In 2022 I started to have the belief that he should be converted to a reliever. I haven’t stopped thinking it since. I’m completely fine if he proves me wrong. 

The Twins will should plan for 7 pitchers needing to make 8 or more starts and they will probably have a 8th starter with 5.

Last year Ober was number 6 and Varland 7 to begin season. If they add a starter, Varland is their best option for number 6 with Woods-Richardson and Festa following. I would Varland start in AAA and expect he will be needed in the rotation. If Woods-Richardson and Festa step it up then they might convert him to the bullpen during the season.