Rule 5 Eligible

[Riverbrian]

Assuming the list on Fangraphs Roster Resource is correct: 

Who do the Twins absolutely need to protect from the following list of rule 5 eligible players.

Camargo

Williams

Severino - 28th ranked prospect

Bechtold

Martin - 6th ranked

Keirsay

Helman

Prato

Luna

Peguero - 31st ranked prospect

Laweryson - 32nd ranked prospect

Schulfer

Scherff

McMahon

Taylor

Banuelos

Isola

Schmidt

Sabato

Soularie

Gray

Fajardo

Holland

Garry Jr

Mooney

Floyd - 36th ranked prospect

Bentley

Grace

Phillips

Miguel Rodriquez

Cavaco 

Salas - 9th ranked prospect

Emmanuel Rodriquez - 4th ranked prospect

Urbina

Morales

Hidalgo

Stankiewicz

Swain

Yanez

Olivar - 25th Ranked Prospect

Cespedes

Martinez

Aria

Perez

Castro

Pena

Medina

[Cornholio]

I would protect Camargo, Martin, Salas, ERod, and possibly Olivar.

[DJL44]

Must protect is Martin, E Rodriguez and Severino. The rest look like potential bullpen guys or backups but you can find those in a lot of places.

[nicksaviking]

Martin, Camargo, Prato, Keirsey and ERod. The first four guys should be looking at roster spots early next year, which means prospect needy teams would be happy to give them a try.

I like Severino, but I'm pretty sure I'm going to start shifting away from the heavy strikeout guys this offseason.

[chpettit19]

Camargo, Severino, Martin, ERod are the only 4 I'd protect. 

Camargo as the 3rd catcher they never had to use this year because of some sort of miracle.

Severino as the slugging cIF backup in AAA to start the year.

Martin as the top prospect who you hope is coming around and has a shot at the opening day roster.

ERod as the superstar prospect you have to keep away from a bottom feeder snagging and carrying all year even if he struggles.

The rest look like AAAA or bullpen guys I don't think are worth taking up 40-man spots during the offseason.

[Doctor Gast]

6 hours ago, Cornholio said:

I would protect Camargo, Martin, Salas, ERod, and possibly Olivar.

Great bunch of prospects I'd protect Martin, Salas, E Rod, &Severino. I have great hope for Olivar & he's still young but I doubt anyone will take him because low A to MLB is a big jump. 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

Camargo, Martin, Salas, E Rod, &Severino

[SwainZag]

Salas won't even be 21 yet on Opening Day and struggled hitting the ball in A+ this season.  I can't see anyone taking him and keeping him on the roster all year long.

[Mike Sixel]

23 minutes ago, SwainZag said:

Salas won't even be 21 yet on Opening Day and struggled hitting the ball in A+ this season.  I can't see anyone taking him and keeping him on the roster all year long.

Good point. I'd have to look at numbers to see if I do it anyway

[FlyingFinn]

Martin, E-Rod and Camargo. Those SO's by Severino just keep him off of my list. Plus, we have several guys who play 3B, his best position.

[Seth Stohs]

Camargo will have to be added before the end of the World Series when he again becomes a free agent. Last year, they were able to sign him to a minor-league deal. I can't imagine him not being a Rule 5 pick, so I think they need to add him.

The Givens: Austin Martin and Emmanuel Rodriguez. 

The Tough Calls: Jose Salas, Yunior Severino, Ricardo Olivar. DaShawn Keirsey.

- I'd add Severino. The power is legit, depth is good. 
- I'd very strongly consider Keirsey. He can play in the big leagues now, and he can be a late-inning defensive replacement, pinch runner, etc. 
- Ricardo Olivar... very tough. Put up strong numbers, but in Low-A. Intriguing player type because he can play LF and CF pretty well, but he also is a catcher. Lots of doubles, but could he stick? Rubel Cespedes is another from the Mighty Mussels, but as a corner infielder, he's probably left off for another year.
- Jose Salas... The Twins kept playing him through Cedar Rapids championship run. Tells me they believe in him, or at least his defense, speed, and his potential. 

[DJL44]

I don't see Camargo as a must-add but it's probably easiest if they do add him. He'll have 3 options so he makes for a good backup plan.

They'll have a tough call to make with players like Kiersey who are on the bubble as adds and Nick Gordon who is on the bubble as a drop.

[Dman]

I have Emmanuel Rodriguez, Camargo, Martin and Severino being added.  Depending on who the Twins want to keep and or can keep there really is only room for three easy adds on the 40 man as I see it.  Rodriguez can replace Gallo, Severino can replace Solano and Martin can replace Celestino.  Finding a spot to add Camargo requires removing one of MAT, Gordon, or Larnach and or possibly Farmer depending on how the Twins feel about their shortstop options.  Camargo feels like a must add though so they will find room.

Severino looks like a tough add with the K rate but he was one of the minor league leaders in HR's and the Twins love their power bats.  I just can't see them not adding him despite some defensive warts and the K rate issue.  He also is a switch hitter which is nice flexibility for late inning matchups. He had a high BABIP but a good average at AA.  The numbers dipped at AAA but the slugging was consistent.  I think they add him this year.

Martin and Celestino are too similar to keep both players IMO. I like Celestino's batting line except for slugging.  I still think he makes for a good 4th outfielder but so does Martin and Martin can play the infield and has all three option years left and is an excellent hitter with a good to great OBP as well. If one guy has to go it looks like Celestino to me.

Rodriguez for Gallo is an easy choice.  If he gets the K rate down Rodriguez has super star potential with the bat and plays good D as well.  Gallo did nothing for the team after the first month of the season. This one is the easiest add IMO.

Dark horse candidates would be Prato and Kiersey.  I don't know how many people have looked at Prato's AAA numbers but they are very Brooks Lee like only better.  He had one down month out of 4 at AAA and ended with a .990 OPS.  He looks very Jullien like although not as much power but a very balanced K and Walk rate ala Lamonte Wade and other players who made it to pro ball.  Yeah that first two months at AA might give some pause but to ignore that outstanding 4 months for a slow start seems dumb to me.  This guy can hit and knows the zone if he isn't added and I am a bottom feeding team this is exactly the kind of player to take a gamble on.

Trading Kiersey out for Gordon makes some sense to me as well.  I think Gordon has the better hit tool but is he ever going to have an .800 OPS season or even a .775 OPS season? If not then I think Kiersey can put up close to at least a .700 OPS in the majors and his Defense is better than Gordons and they could move him back and forth as he would have 3 option years left. If you really believe in Gordon then maybe not a good idea but if you value flexibility and excellent defense I think moving on from Gordon and adding Kiersey makes a lot of sense.

Some tough decision as always and it will be interesting to see what they decide.

 

[terrydactyls]

9 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

Camargo will have to be added before the end of the World Series when he again becomes a free agent. Last year, they were able to sign him to a minor-league deal. I can't imagine him not being a Rule 5 pick, so I think they need to add him.

The Givens: Austin Martin and Emmanuel Rodriguez. 

The Tough Calls: Jose Salas, Yunior Severino, Ricardo Olivar. DaShawn Keirsey.

- I'd add Severino. The power is legit, depth is good. 
- I'd very strongly consider Keirsey. He can play in the big leagues now, and he can be a late-inning defensive replacement, pinch runner, etc. 
- Ricardo Olivar... very tough. Put up strong numbers, but in Low-A. Intriguing player type because he can play LF and CF pretty well, but he also is a catcher. Lots of doubles, but could he stick? Rubel Cespedes is another from the Mighty Mussels, but as a corner infielder, he's probably left off for another year.
- Jose Salas... The Twins kept playing him through Cedar Rapids championship run. Tells me they believe in him, or at least his defense, speed, and his potential. 

Help me understand.  If Camargo becomes a free agent after the World Series, would he even be a part of the rule 5 draft?  And if so, why would a team select him if he is a free agent?

[Nine of twelve]

The only one I'm 100% on protecting is Camargo. Catchers are valuable enough that it's mandatory to keep the third best catcher in your system. If he is not protected I think he would certainly be selected in the draft.

[2wins87]

39 minutes ago, Dman said:

I have Emmanuel Rodriguez, Camargo, Martin and Severino being added.  Depending on who the Twins want to keep and or can keep there really is only room for three easy adds on the 40 man as I see it.  Rodriguez can replace Gallo, Severino can replace Solano and Martin can replace Celestino.  Finding a spot to add Camargo requires removing one of MAT, Gordon, or Larnach and or possibly Farmer depending on how the Twins feel about their shortstop options.  Camargo feels like a must add though so they will find room.

MAT is a free agent.  They could re-sign him, but problem solved in the short term when it comes to 40-man adds.  According to Fangraphs, Celestino was outrighted and just cleared waivers today, so that spot is already open.

I'm not sure who you already have on your non-tender/outright list, but Stevenson, Luplow, De Leon, and Ortega are all easy to reasonable drops in addition to possibly Farmer who you mentioned.  I don't think making room is an issue, but it also depends on how many additional spots they want to leave open for additions at the start of the offseason.  There are also guys like Sands who they never figured out how to use, who might get dropped for a FA acquisition.

I think the other add I might make is Keirsey for Stevenson (or at least in a similar role), but possibly a bit more upside.

There are a few other position players in the upper minors that seem ready to get a shot in the majors, but I'm not sure how much upside other teams will see in them, usually there is some solid defensive floor for rule-5 picks.  It's also just easier to see a pitcher, make a tweak, and then possibly have a bullpen weapon.

[nicksaviking]

Anthony Prato played every position except CF and C last year and had a .990 OPS and 20% BB rate with the Saints.

And he hits right handed.

[Dman]

36 minutes ago, 2wins87 said:

MAT is a free agent.  They could re-sign him, but problem solved in the short term when it comes to 40-man adds.  According to Fangraphs, Celestino was outrighted and just cleared waivers today, so that spot is already open.

I'm not sure who you already have on your non-tender/outright list, but Stevenson, Luplow, De Leon, and Ortega are all easy to reasonable drops in addition to possibly Farmer who you mentioned.  I don't think making room is an issue, but it also depends on how many additional spots they want to leave open for additions at the start of the offseason.  There are also guys like Sands who they never figured out how to use, who might get dropped for a FA acquisition.

I think the other add I might make is Keirsey for Stevenson (or at least in a similar role), but possibly a bit more upside.

There are a few other position players in the upper minors that seem ready to get a shot in the majors, but I'm not sure how much upside other teams will see in them, usually there is some solid defensive floor for rule-5 picks.  It's also just easier to see a pitcher, make a tweak, and then possibly have a bullpen weapon.

Yeah but they are going to need to add Miranda and Gordon back to the 40 man and so it isn't going to be the same 40 man that is there right now once the 60 day IL's come back on.  Not sure what they do with Taylor.  His .700 OPS seems replaceable but his defense won't be as easy to replace.  Maybe Martin, Castro, Buxton can fill it next year hard to say how the Twins feel but if he is gone it does open up space for all four pretty easily.

Even after dropping De Leon, Ortega and Pagan they need room for Alcala and Funderburk (who I have replacing Ortega).  Unless they move on from one or two of Henriquez, Sands, Balazovic, Winder it looks tight once they likely add a vet or two this offseason.

I think it is tighter than you are realizing.

[Mike Sixel]

With Castro and Martin, you don't likely even consider Gordon at this point. He's replaced already. 

Y'all are likely right on Prato though. 

[chpettit19]

A couple people have touched on it, but a big part of this question is how many spots they'll even have open. By my count they currently have 46 guys on the 40-man. 39 active and 7 60-day guys.

I see 12 free agents to be that will drop the 40-man down to 34 after the World Series. Then the question is if you plan to DFA anyone, if you plan to trade any 40-man guys, and how many vets you want to bring in (or back). Do Castro and Martin cover your need for Gordon so you try to trade him? Are you happy with Lewis and Castro being your backup SS so you non-tender or trade Farmer? Have you given up on Miranda after an injury plague horrid year? Sands, Winder, SWR, Balazovic, Thielbar, Moran, Henriquez, Headrick, Alcala done enough to hold their spot or are you looking for upgrades?

I don't see a ton of "must protect" guys, but I also see a bunch of guys that should be targeted for upgrades on the 40-man. Could (maybe should?) be a pretty active offseason with some real rearranging of the 40-man. Which is a little weird after a trip to the ALDS, but I think it'd be a mistake to not try to make some real changes.

[Dman]

16 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

A couple people have touched on it, but a big part of this question is how many spots they'll even have open. By my count they currently have 46 guys on the 40-man. 39 active and 7 60-day guys.

I see 12 free agents to be that will drop the 40-man down to 34 after the World Series. Then the question is if you plan to DFA anyone, if you plan to trade any 40-man guys, and how many vets you want to bring in (or back). Do Castro and Martin cover your need for Gordon so you try to trade him? Are you happy with Lewis and Castro being your backup SS so you non-tender or trade Farmer? Have you given up on Miranda after an injury plague horrid year? Sands, Winder, SWR, Balazovic, Thielbar, Moran, Henriquez, Headrick, Alcala done enough to hold their spot or are you looking for upgrades?

I don't see a ton of "must protect" guys, but I also see a bunch of guys that should be targeted for upgrades on the 40-man. Could (maybe should?) be a pretty active offseason with some real rearranging of the 40-man. Which is a little weird after a trip to the ALDS, but I think it'd be a mistake to not try to make some real changes.

Yeah I feel like they banked on Moran, Winder, Sands, Balazovic and maybe Henriquez to step up in 2023 and justify their 40 man spots and none of them really did.  I know bullpen arms are variable year to year but I don't think they carry all those questionable arms on the 40 man next year. And yet they might be able to find room to give them one more year to develop. Hard to say, but I agree with you that they should do more to solidify the relief arms on the 40 man.  Hopefully they can work out some trades to get better there. At the end of 2024 they will have to add more arms like Festa, Raya maybe Ohl, Nowlin, McCleod so those bubble guys don't have long to get it together.

[Mike Sixel]

SWR isn't being cut.... He's 22, I think. All the other pitchers? Does it matter if you lose them if they don't have options, or even if they do? 

[Mike Sixel]

It's also about willingness to take chances on youth .... Can Martin start in center? Can Lee be the backup SS and 3b if there is an injury? I see no way they give up on Miranda..... He was hurt all year. This year they refused to trust youth, largely, keeping Gallo around and avoiding playing Wallner as long as possible. What will they try next year?

 

[2wins87]

1 hour ago, Dman said:

Yeah but they are going to need to add Miranda and Gordon back to the 40 man and so it isn't going to be the same 40 man that is there right now once the 60 day IL's come back on.  Not sure what they do with Taylor.  His .700 OPS seems replaceable but his defense won't be as easy to replace.  Maybe Martin, Castro, Buxton can fill it next year hard to say how the Twins feel but if he is gone it does open up space for all four pretty easily.

Even after dropping De Leon, Ortega and Pagan they need room for Alcala and Funderburk (who I have replacing Ortega).  Unless they move on from one or two of Henriquez, Sands, Balazovic, Winder it looks tight once they likely add a vet or two this offseason.

I think it is tighter than you are realizing.

Currently 40 guys on the roster and 6 on the 60-day IL for 46 total spots.

There are 8 impending free agents of those 46: Solano, Gallo, Taylor, Gray, Maeda, Mahle, Pagan, Keuchel

So that's two open spots so far.  I think Luplow, Stevenson, and De Leon are pretty much automatic drops.  That's 5 spots and there are still a few marginal guys left on the roster.  They've had much worse roster crunches in the past. This year is not bad.

[Mike Sixel]

Gray is getting a QO, but I don't think he counts as on the 40 man?

None of those other FAs NEED to be signed, but I'm betting money they sign Taylor and DON'T trust Martin to take over (with Castro and Buxton).

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

SWR isn't being cut.... He's 22, I think. All the other pitchers? Does it matter if you lose them if they don't have options, or even if they do? 

It will be interesting how many depth pieces,  40 spots ect the Twins will use on the younger players.  3 names not mentioned a ton but performed really well that I think are at risk of being lost are Williams Prato and Helman.  Or at least trade pieces.  

Here are the following AAA infield hitters that look like they have a shot in the MLB - Prato, Helman, Severino, Lee, Williams.   

I am not too worried about rule 5 as they have the potential to open a ton of spots.  Headrick, Balazovic, Alcala, De Leon, henriquez, Ortega, Sands plus all the other spots of free agents.  There is a lot of fluff at the end of our 40 man.  I would be willing to drop any of the relievers to retain the batters mentioned above.  

I could see the continued youth movement giving the Twins a lot more options next year and in the future.  

[FlyingFinn]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Do Castro and Martin cover your need for Gordon so you try to trade him?

Yes

 

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Are you happy with Lewis and Castro being your backup SS so you non-tender or trade Farmer?

Yes, if you plan on adding Lee to the roster very early in 2024 or to start the season. Do we keep Farmer as well though - yes, if Lewis is playing CF.

 

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Have you given up on Miranda after an injury plague horrid year?

No

 

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Sands, Winder, SWR, Balazovic, Thielbar, Moran, Henriquez, Headrick, Alcala done enough to hold their spot or are you looking for upgrades?

SWR, Thielbar, Moran, Alcala - yes. The remainder will be the first to go as we add free agents IMO.

Very good questions.

[RpR]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

It's also about willingness to take chances on youth .... Can Martin start in center? Can Lee be the backup SS and 3b if there is an injury? I see no way they give up on Miranda..... He was hurt all year. This year they refused to trust youth, largely, keeping Gallo around and avoiding playing Wallner as long as possible. What will they try next year?

 

No, it is ALL about getting back to the post season next year, not shooting craps with more rookies.

Next year Kirilloff, Lewis, Wallner  and Julien will have to show they can adjust to Major League pitchers adjusting to them.

There is no room/time for being an extended AAA team for more rookies.

Spring training will show who stays in the Org. and who will move on to other Orgs.

[jorgenswest]

Keirsey will be 27 and had a 93 wRC+ in AAA. They just DFA’d Celestino and he is two years younger with a better 106 wRC+. I don’t see them adding Keirsey. I am not even sure they should retain Stevenson who was so much better in AAA.

I concur with the addition of Rodriguez, Martin, Severino and Camargo.

I haven’t seen Prato play other than on MiLB TV. No way to judge defense on TV. Sometimes when players play lots of positions they can’t play any well. His numbers were so bad in AA and when combined with AAA he is about a 120 wRC+. Is he major league ready to the point where they would let go of Farmer and/or trade Polanco?

[East Coast Twin]

4 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

Help me understand.  If Camargo becomes a free agent after the World Series, would he even be a part of the rule 5 draft?  And if so, why would a team select him if he is a free agent?

The only way he would be subject to the Rule 5 draft is if he signed another minor league contract prior to the draft.