Rule 5 Eligible

[Rosterman]

Carmargo, Severino and Enlow can all walk, rather than Rule 5. So have to make a hard decision there. I don't see any team grabbing a gub in AA or below from the Twins organization, so those bodies are pretty safe.

Prato is a consideration. I would hope, if not added, the Twins can keep Bechtold, Williams and Heilman in the organizaion.

Austin Martin needs to be protected, a well as Keirsey. (who is older, but basically made Celestino expendable).

 

The Twins should have 5-6 roster spots open.

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, Rosterman said:

Carmargo, Severino and Enlow can all walk, rather than Rule 5. So have to make a hard decision there. I don't see any team grabbing a gub in AA or below from the Twins organization, so those bodies are pretty safe.

Prato is a consideration. I would hope, if not added, the Twins can keep Bechtold, Williams and Heilman in the organizaion.

Austin Martin needs to be protected, a well as Keirsey. (who is older, but basically made Celestino expendable).

 

The Twins should have 5-6 roster spots open.

100000x a team takes EROD. All day and every day. 

[Riverbrian]

I don't have an opinion on the players under consideration but I was curious to see what everybody else thinks since the roster building of 2024 kinda begins with these decisions.  

I must say that this thread has been the most enjoyable read on the site in the past couple of days. 

[DJL44]

11 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

100000x a team takes EROD. All day and every day. 

He would be the #1 pick in the Rule 5 draft if available.

[Mike Sixel]

20 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

He would be the #1 pick in the Rule 5 draft if available.

right. That was my point to the person that said no one in AA or lower would be taken.

[DocBauer]

The 40 man is absolutely looking a little crowded. The problem is the "crowd" consists of more than a handful of arms you want to keep, but just don't know about for sure. Sands flashed here and there for St Paul and the Twins in his new role. But enough flash to believe in and keep? And there were while weeks or two where he never threw. Does Winder's new sinker re-make him as a pen option? Is Balazovic, now healthy, ready to turn the corner with time to acclimate to the pen? What about Henriquez being healthy and pretty young, does he step forward?

I hope they make the right call on some of these guys because I don't have a definitive answer who to move off vs keeping.

BUT, MUST HAVES:

E-Rod, Camargo, Martin, and Severino.

Shouldn't have to explain anything about the 1st three. And average defense or not, and high K numbers, Severino is a switch hitter who looks like he actually can...you know...hit. and 30HR power is nothing to sneeze at. Even possible 2B/3B don't turn out and he moves to 1B. No way he isn't selected by someone if not protected. 

LIKE TO KEEP:

I dont know that Helman...injured a lot this year...Keirsey...late bloomer with less than a season of AAA...or Prato...what exactly is he...will or won't be selected if unprotected. 

Helman can fill in at 7 spots with some power and speed and would have seen time with the Twins this year if not for the injury bug. Doubtful Luplow ever puts on TC gear if Helman wasn't snake-bit. 

Keirsey is basically a younger Stevenson. Injuries held him back his first couple of years. Probably a good, versatile 4th OF for a ceiling, but what's wrong with that? Why not keep him on the 40 and try to get Stevenson back on a milb deal?

And I like Prato, similar to Helman, for his versatility offensively and defensively. Reasonable chance Farmer and/or Solano are not brought back, for various reasons. (I like both guys). Prato gives an intriguing depth piece I'd like to keep around and keep developing. 

Almost everyone else is probably left undrafted as they wouldn't stick, or too young to expect to stick. 

[Brett]

What we plan in CF next year drives a lot of this. Will Buxton be able to play the position? How many games could Castro cover? Are we serious about putting Lewis out there?

I wish Martin had been called up at some point so we could see him under the bright lights. Now he’s just untapped potential with a high OBP at AAA. And he’s a righty bat.

if we roll with Martin and Castro, we chance rookie struggles and a Gordon-esque regression. If we roll with Buxton, we risk TD boards filled with clinical diagnoses. If we re-sign Taylor, we risk the clutches of Father Time.

As winter closes in, I look forward to the lamentations, prognostications and the clear, unbridled optimism of spring.

Win Twins. And go Twins Daily.

[DJL44]

17 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

LIKE TO KEEP:

I dont know that Helman...injured a lot this year...Keirsey...late bloomer with less than a season of AAA...or Prato...what exactly is he...will or won't be selected if unprotected. 

Helman can fill in at 7 spots with some power and speed and would have seen time with the Twins this year if not for the injury bug. Doubtful Luplow ever puts on TC gear if Helman wasn't snake-bit. 

Keirsey is basically a younger Stevenson. Injuries held him back his first couple of years. Probably a good, versatile 4th OF for a ceiling, but what's wrong with that? Why not keep him on the 40 and try to get Stevenson back on a milb deal?

And I like Prato, similar to Helman, for his versatility offensively and defensively. Reasonable chance Farmer and/or Solano are not brought back, for various reasons. (I like both guys). Prato gives an intriguing depth piece I'd like to keep around and keep developing. 

Almost everyone else is probably left undrafted as they wouldn't stick, or too young to expect to stick. 

You can probably keep everyone you would like to keep with an above market minor league deal.

[Brandon]

On 10/12/2023 at 2:35 PM, nicksaviking said:

Martin, Camargo, Prato, Keirsey and ERod. The first four guys should be looking at roster spots early next year, which means prospect needy teams would be happy to give them a try.

I like Severino, but I'm pretty sure I'm going to start shifting away from the heavy strikeout guys this offseason.

Severino cost the Twins 2.5 million to sign.  They will protect that investment and give him a chance at some point even if it’s a backup roll. 
 

speaking of high signing bonuses will Enlow be protected?  I don’t know what his issue was in AAA last year but he pitched well in AA.

[DocBauer]

36 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

You can probably keep everyone you would like to keep with an above market minor league deal.

Agreed. And if possible, that's even better. You almost extend your 40 man in that way. Just really, really want to keep those guys and not lose them. But I like your train of thought!

[DocBauer]

38 minutes ago, Brett said:

What we plan in CF next year drives a lot of this. Will Buxton be able to play the position? How many games could Castro cover? Are we serious about putting Lewis out there?

I wish Martin had been called up at some point so we could see him under the bright lights. Now he’s just untapped potential with a high OBP at AAA. And he’s a righty bat.

if we roll with Martin and Castro, we chance rookie struggles and a Gordon-esque regression. If we roll with Buxton, we risk TD boards filled with clinical diagnoses. If we re-sign Taylor, we risk the clutches of Father Time.

As winter closes in, I look forward to the lamentations, prognostications and the clear, unbridled optimism of spring.

Win Twins. And go Twins Daily.

My guess? They won't want to trust CF to Martin after what was loosely half of a good, healthy, productive season. And I wouldn't either. I think there's a really good chance Taylor is back...with a $ bump...to be anything from a 4th OF to the primary starting CF. 

I think prudence just demands you "pretend" in your mind that Buxton won't play CF or will be limited and you have to protect yourself.

I can see Martin up later in the year and getting a real opportunity to take CF over. (It's also why I like the idea of trying to keep Keirsey as a LH reserve option for even more depth).

[Dman]

50 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

The 40 man is absolutely looking a little crowded. The problem is the "crowd" consists of more than a handful of arms you want to keep, but just don't know about for sure. Sands flashed here and there for St Paul and the Twins in his new role. But enough flash to believe in and keep? And there were while weeks or two where he never threw. Does Winder's new sinker re-make him as a pen option? Is Balazovic, now healthy, ready to turn the corner with time to acclimate to the pen? What about Henriquez being healthy and pretty young, does he step forward?

I hope they make the right call on some of these guys because I don't have a definitive answer who to move off vs keeping.

BUT, MUST HAVES:

E-Rod, Camargo, Martin, and Severino.

Shouldn't have to explain anything about the 1st three. And average defense or not, and high K numbers, Severino is a switch hitter who looks like he actually can...you know...hit. and 30HR power is nothing to sneeze at. Even possible 2B/3B don't turn out and he moves to 1B. No way he isn't selected by someone if not protected. 

LIKE TO KEEP:

I dont know that Helman...injured a lot this year...Keirsey...late bloomer with less than a season of AAA...or Prato...what exactly is he...will or won't be selected if unprotected. 

Helman can fill in at 7 spots with some power and speed and would have seen time with the Twins this year if not for the injury bug. Doubtful Luplow ever puts on TC gear if Helman wasn't snake-bit. 

Keirsey is basically a younger Stevenson. Injuries held him back his first couple of years. Probably a good, versatile 4th OF for a ceiling, but what's wrong with that? Why not keep him on the 40 and try to get Stevenson back on a milb deal?

And I like Prato, similar to Helman, for his versatility offensively and defensively. Reasonable chance Farmer and/or Solano are not brought back, for various reasons. (I like both guys). Prato gives an intriguing depth piece I'd like to keep around and keep developing. 

Almost everyone else is probably left undrafted as they wouldn't stick, or too young to expect to stick. 

Hoping that with Helman's limited playing time last year they can hide him one more year in AAA.  Still if I am Helman and looking at the logjam in the infield it might be best to see if KC, Oakland, Anaheim or Chicago have room for me in minor league FA.  He is isn't exactly young so can't really afford to wait too long for his shot.  

[ashbury]

I don't see adding Keirsey.  Try to trade him if more than one team might try to grab him.  I don't know his defensive prowess but it surely doesn't exceed MAT's, and his bat looks like will be inferior.    Another tweener like Stevenson, backup OF candidate, and that is something you can acquire on the fly if need be, not expend a precious offseason roster spot.  I had had hopes for him, and he may carve out a major league career of sorts, but he doesn't quite make the cut IMO.

[DocBauer]

Just now, Dman said:

Hoping that with Helman's limited playing time last year they can hide him one more year in AAA.  Still if I am Helman and looking at the logjam in the infield it might be best to see if KC, Oakland, Anaheim or Chicago have room for me in minor league FA.  He is isn't exactly young so can't really afford to wait too long for his shot.  

Agreed. But then again, the Twins STILL have never added a RH OF bat, even when demand for one seemed high. (Taylor is RH, but is a defensive specialist who can offer some thing offensively, but is not a BAT). So he might see an opportunity with the Twins this season right in front of him if he can just stay healthy?

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, DocBauer said:

The 40 man is absolutely looking a little crowded. The problem is the "crowd" consists of more than a handful of arms you want to keep, but just don't know about for sure. Sands flashed here and there for St Paul and the Twins in his new role. But enough flash to believe in and keep? And there were while weeks or two where he never threw. Does Winder's new sinker re-make him as a pen option? Is Balazovic, now healthy, ready to turn the corner with time to acclimate to the pen? What about Henriquez being healthy and pretty young, does he step forward?

I hope they make the right call on some of these guys because I don't have a definitive answer who to move off vs keeping.

BUT, MUST HAVES:

E-Rod, Camargo, Martin, and Severino.

Shouldn't have to explain anything about the 1st three. And average defense or not, and high K numbers, Severino is a switch hitter who looks like he actually can...you know...hit. and 30HR power is nothing to sneeze at. Even possible 2B/3B don't turn out and he moves to 1B. No way he isn't selected by someone if not protected. 

LIKE TO KEEP:

I dont know that Helman...injured a lot this year...Keirsey...late bloomer with less than a season of AAA...or Prato...what exactly is he...will or won't be selected if unprotected. 

Helman can fill in at 7 spots with some power and speed and would have seen time with the Twins this year if not for the injury bug. Doubtful Luplow ever puts on TC gear if Helman wasn't snake-bit. 

Keirsey is basically a younger Stevenson. Injuries held him back his first couple of years. Probably a good, versatile 4th OF for a ceiling, but what's wrong with that? Why not keep him on the 40 and try to get Stevenson back on a milb deal?

And I like Prato, similar to Helman, for his versatility offensively and defensively. Reasonable chance Farmer and/or Solano are not brought back, for various reasons. (I like both guys). Prato gives an intriguing depth piece I'd like to keep around and keep developing. 

Almost everyone else is probably left undrafted as they wouldn't stick, or too young to expect to stick. 

No one is taking kiesey and keeping him on their roster all year. Or Helman. 

[DocBauer]

2 minutes ago, ashbury said:

I don't see adding Keirsey.  Try to trade him if more than one team might try to grab him.  I don't know his defensive prowess but it surely doesn't exceed MAT's, and his bat looks like will be inferior.    Another tweener like Stevenson, backup OF candidate, and that is something you can acquire on the fly if need be, not expend a precious offseason roster spot.  I had had hopes for him, but he doesn't quite make the cut IMO.

I don't know that I would insist on protecting him. But I'd sure like to keep him. And age, limited AAA, I don' t know that he'd be selected. But I see a younger Stevenson who might have a little upside still. And I like that depth behind Martin, maybe even as someone who can spell him once in a while...down the line...from the port side. Reportedly, he's very good defensively.

Just saying, I think he's a late bloomer with some potential I'd like to keep around if possible.

[ashbury]

4 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

I don't know that I would insist on protecting him. But I'd 

Doc! Doc! Are you okay?

 

/ edit - Whew!  I see you went back and finished your sentence.

[Dman]

6 minutes ago, ashbury said:

I don't see adding Keirsey.  Try to trade him if more than one team might try to grab him.  I don't know his defensive prowess but it surely doesn't exceed MAT's, and his bat looks like will be inferior.    Another tweener like Stevenson, and that is something you can acquire on the fly if need be.

Yeah Kiersey is a tough one to peg right now.  The .300 BA at AA indicates he can really hit and he slugged pretty well at that level as well.  Still the numbers fell off in AAA and would only likely get worse at the MLB level.  He needs more time to adjust to breaking stuff and he has a low walk rate which doesn't bode well for future MLB success IMO.  I don't think you compare him to MAT though as he is a righty. The comparison is Gordon who also doesn't walk much and seems to be pegged mainly in a center field role.  They are similar hitters IMO although I think Gordon is slightly better.  Keirsey is a faster runner with 31 Steals last year and plays pretty elite centerfield defense.  Like Stevenson that would be a nice thing to have off the bench late in close games and he has all three options left so you can move him up and down as the team has various needs.  You would be gaining another good\elite defender who hits righties better than Lefties with a lot of roster flexibility if better options present themselves.

You say those types are easy to find but until recently the Twins haven't seemed to be able find them and they almost weren't even able to get MAT last year until KC caved.  Still I will agree there is a decent chance Kiersey doesn't get picked in Rule V as it is hard to tell if the bat will play and the low walk rate gives him little to work with at the MLB level.  Odds are they don't add him but there is case to be made IMO.

[ashbury]

13 minutes ago, Dman said:

Yeah Kiersey is a tough one to peg right now.  The .300 BA at AA indicates he can really hit and he slugged pretty well at that level as well.  Still the numbers fell off in AAA and would only likely get worse at the MLB level.  He needs more time to adjust to breaking stuff and he has a low walk rate which doesn't bode well for future MLB success IMO.  I don't think you compare him to MAT though as he is a righty. The comparison is Gordon who also doesn't walk much and seems to be pegged mainly in a center field role.  They are similar hitters IMO although I think Gordon is slightly better.  Keirsey is a faster runner with 31 Steals last year and plays pretty elite centerfield defense.  Like Stevenson that would be a nice thing to have off the bench late in close games and he has all three options left so you can move him up and down as the team has various needs.  You would be gaining another good\elite defender who hits righties better than Lefties with a lot of roster flexibility if better options present themselves.

You say those types are easy to find but until recently the Twins haven't seemed to be able find them and they almost weren't even able to get MAT last year until KC caved.  Still I will agree there is a decent chance Kiersey doesn't get picked in Rule V as it is hard to tell if the bat will play and the low walk rate gives him little to work with at the MLB level.  Odds are they don't add him but there is case to be made IMO.

All good points, but for me it still boils down simply to "ceiling," which is backup OF.   If he winds up playing 4 years in the majors racking up about 200 PA a year for a bottom-feeder team, I'm not going to shed bitter tears that we lost him for nothing.  We can protect only 40.

[jorgenswest]

I think if you looked at other organizations you will find a Keirsey in most of them. Others will be available as minor league free agents like Andrew Stevenson. I really don’t think he will be taken. If he is pick up a minor league free agent like Cal Stevenson for depth.

There were 146 AAA outfielders that had an wRC+ better than Keirsey of 93 last year. Many are younger and 28 played CF. There were 44 AA players with a wRC+ better than his 123. Most were younger than 26. The run scoring context of both of his leagues last year was inflated giving a skewed view of batting performance. 

I don’t think the stats support his addition to the 40 man roster. There may be things the Twins see outside the stats that would support his addition.

 

Edited October 14, 2023 by jorgenswest
I mistakenly only selected PCL. Edited to reflect all AAA and added AA

[DocBauer]

51 minutes ago, ashbury said:

All good points, but for me it still boils down simply to "ceiling," which is backup OF.   If he winds up playing 4 years in the majors racking up about 200 PA a year for a bottom-feeder team, I'm not going to shed bitter tears that we lost him for nothing.  We can protect only 40.

I can't disagree with you. I also see his ceiling as a useful #4 OF. Which, of course, is why he's on my "like to keep" list and not a needed add. 

Also agree with Dman that he needs more time at AAA before he'd be ready for time at the ML level. But 1 month at AAA compared to vast improvement in '22 and this season tells me there's still some ceiling there. And with questions regarding CF right now, I'd like him around for depth/future depth. 

I also agree he and Helman are probably safe from being selected. But both are young enough and talented enough I could see a bottom team...A's as an example...looking to add a late bloomer or two to add to their team for opportunity sake. And honestly, I'm more concerned about keeping Helman and his versatility than I am Keirsey.

Good conversation!

[Major League Ready]

13 hours ago, DocBauer said:

My guess? They won't want to trust CF to Martin after what was loosely half of a good, healthy, productive season. And I wouldn't either. I think there's a really good chance Taylor is back...with a $ bump...to be anything from a 4th OF to the primary starting CF. 

I think prudence just demands you "pretend" in your mind that Buxton won't play CF or will be limited and you have to protect yourself.

I can see Martin up later in the year and getting a real opportunity to take CF over. (It's also why I like the idea of trying to keep Keirsey as a LH reserve option for even more depth).

MAT had real value this year but I would rather see them sign Harrison Bader.  He hits LHP well enough to play a corner OF spot against LHP even if Buxton gets healthy enough to play some CF.

[RpR]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

MAT had real value this year but I would rather see them sign Harrison Bader.  He hits LHP well enough to play a corner OF spot against LHP even if Buxton gets healthy enough to play some CF.

Curious why you like Bader.

He seems to be as good , or better CF than Taylor but a lessor bat.

In these threads where bat first is most common, whether pro with history or AAA rookie unknown, that seems like an outlier position.

[Fatbat]

I would go with the youth movement this off season. We are stacked in the upper minors with guys that can make the jump to MLB as needed. Mat and Farmer wont be needed. They are marginal aging role players. We also have a bunch of “fluff” as stated earlier. In the past, we have not added many players via rule 5. Is this the year we find a hidden gem? Probably not. Out of the list above, there are at least 6 guys that I would protect and expect them to be AAAA in 2024. Chances are that someone will blow out an arm, knee or shoulder by April so we should have plenty of room to protect the youth from rule 5. Please, PLEASE don’t sign aging FA’s to clog up the 40 man. Go fast, young and exciting!!!

[RpR]

12 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

PLEASE don’t sign aging FA’s to clog up the 40 man. Go fast, young and exciting!!!

 And replace Kasas City at the bottom of the pile.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

Mat and Farmer wont be needed. They are marginal aging role players.

Disagree, Michael Taylor is a clear starting caliber CF and Kyle Farmer would be the best available SS in free agency this offseason.  I like your sentiment - signing Gallo when we already had Wallner and Larnach was silly - but your example players are better than you think.

[ashbury]

25 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Disagree, Michael Taylor is a clear starting caliber CF

At age 32 MAT had the second best offensive season of his career.  Maybe Popkins unlocked something in him but I would not be inclined to bet on the same production in 2024.  MAT at this point is a supreme backup outfielder, at least on a contending team.  A bottom feeder team could use him as a starter without qualm, but our aspirations are higher than that for now.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

At age 32 MAT had the second best offensive season of his career.  Maybe Popkins unlocked something in him but I would not be inclined to bet on the same production in 2024.  MAT at this point is a supreme backup outfielder, at least on a contending team.  A bottom feeder team could use him as a starter without qualm, but our aspirations are higher than that for now.

Also, if this team gets serious about fixing the strikeout problem, removing MAT is the second easiest call after removing Gallo.

[jkcarew]

Camargo (if they sign him), Martin, Rodriguez, Severino.

I would think Severino would be drafted if not protected. IMO, he warrants a spot to see how/if he develops further. The power is too good…and he’s a switch-hitter whose RH splits are very good…something that is not that common (albeit, with the high K%). FWIW, he seems to provide SOME defensive flexibility…3B, 2B, 1B. Meanwhile, Polanco is starting to break down, Kiriloff and Miranda are question marks. I would think the log jambs at these positions will be addressed in the offseason. We’ll see.

Don’t know how realistic it is that any of these names would be included in trades BEFORE the draft?

[RpR]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Also, if this team gets serious about fixing the strikeout problem, removing MAT is the second easiest call after removing Gallo.

Julien had 2 fewer strike outs than Taylor while playing 20 fewer games.