Rays 5, Twins 4: Twins Rally Falls Short, End in Ninth-Inning Heartbreaker

[Thiéres Rabelo]

After a short start by Dallas Keuchel, the Twins were down four runs early. They rallied back to tie it and had a mostly great outing from their bullpen. But one bad pitch in the ninth cost them the game and the series.

Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

Box Score
Starting Pitcher: Dallas Keuchel, 4.0 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 3 BB, 3 K (78 pitches, 47 strikes, 60.3%)
Home Runs: Matt Wallner (12), Kyle Farmer (10)
Bottom 3 WPA: Griffin Jax (-.306), Dallas Keuchel (-.282), Royce Lewis  (-.181)
Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

Keuchel gives up four early runs
Things looked really promising for Dallas Keuchel to begin this game, as he got two quick outs on only six pitches. He got Yandy Diaz, Tampa Bay’s leadoff hitter, to strike out with a couple of nasty swings and misses, including an 80.1 mph changeup that called Rob Friedman’s attention. But that was pretty much all the “Vintage Keuchel” Twins fans would witness, as things took a turn for the worse.

Not only did Keuchel stop missing bats, but Rays batters also began barrelling his pitches. He didn’t give up a run in the top of the first, surrendering merely a two-out double, but in all three times Tampa Bay’s hitters got to make contact during that inning, it was hard contact – nothing below 97.5 mph exit velocity.

The Rays scored three runs in the top of the second. Curtis Mead led off the inning with a triple that left his bat at 100 mph, then scored on a fielder’s choice a couple of at-bats later. Tampa Bay continued to push, and with two on and two outs, Díaz got his revenge on Keuchel by hitting a long double to deep center to score both runners.

With the Twins offense not putting up a big fight, Tampa Bay managed to add on in the top of the third. Keuchel gave up a one-out walk to Isaac Paredes, who scored on the next at-bat on another Mead extra-base hit, an RBI double, making it 4-0 Rays.

Twins tie it up, both starters depart the game
Minnesota couldn’t get anything going in the first two innings of the game, being limited to a lone walk. But things quickly changed in the bottom of the third. Matt Wallner jumped on the first pitch he saw to crush a leadoff home run to deep center, putting the Twins on the board. Kyle Farmer was exactly as aggressive and also took Taj Bradley deep in the next at-bat.

The Twins continued to threat in the same inning, with Jorge Polanco smacking a one-out double, but Bradley managed to put the fire away. After Keuchel delivered his first 1-2-3 inning of the afternoon in the top of the fourth, the offense took one more shot at Bradley in the home half, with Ryan Jeffers hitting a one-out double. This time, though, the Twins were unable to capitalize.

Keuchel returned for the fifth, but his day was over before he could record an out. Harold Ramírez hit a leadoff single, which was followed by a walk from Paredes. Rocco Baldelli decided to pull him and bring in Dylan Floro, who successfully took care of the mess on 13 pitches. Fortunately for the Twins, Keuchel wouldn’t be the only starter to depart the game in that inning.

The bottom of the fifth began tremendously well for Minnesota, with Farmer making Bradley fight hard for a strikeout after a 16-pitch at-bat. The Twins went on to draw back-to-back walks, then both runners moved up on a wild pitch. Bradley was pulled after getting the second out, but it was no use: against reliever Jake Diekman, Max Kepler hit a triple to right to drive in both runners and tie the game.

The bullpen looks great… for the most part
Floro did a great job not allowing his two inherited runners to score in the fifth. But Emilio Pagán, who took over after him in the sixth, was perhaps even more impressive. He delivered two scoreless frames after retiring the side on 15 pitches in the sixth and surviving a jam in the seventh. Díaz and Randy Arozarena opened the inning with back-to-back singles, but Pagán was able to retire the next three batters on eight pitches to end the rally.

Caleb Thielbar tossed a scoreless eighth on Tuesday night’s win, and he was brought into this game to make his seventh appearance on no day’s rest this season. Not only was he trying to keep this a tied game, but he would also try to preserve his 0.00 ERA pitching on back-to-back days this season. Spoiler alert: he did a phenomenal job! He retired the side on 17 pitches, closing out the inning with an absolutely filthy 71.5 mph curveball for a punchout.

Then, it was Griffin Jax’s turn to keep the Rays from scoring in the top of the ninth. Things started out great for him, who retired the first two batters on only six pitches. But when Arozarena stepped up to the plate, Jax was doomed. His command was a little off, and Arozarena got ahead 0-2. Jax managed to even the count, but a couple of pitches later, the Rays’ outfielder crushed him for a third-decker, making it 5-4 Tampa Bay. Jordan Luplow worked a one-out walk in the bottom of the ninth to make things interesting. Andrew Stevenson came in to pinch-run for him, and he stole second. But ultimately, it was no use, as the Rays bullpen held on tight.

Postgame interview

What’s Next?
The Twins head to Chicago, where they’ll start a four-game set against the White Sox. The series opener is scheduled for 6:40 pm CDT on Thursday (9/14) at Guaranteed Rate Field. Chicago’s starting pitcher has yet to be determined, while Kenta Maeda (4-7, 4.65 ERA) is expected to take the mound for Minnesota.

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

	SAT	SUN	MON	TUE	WED	TOT
Varland	20	0	0	31	0	51
Floro	11	0	24	0	13	48
Headrick	0	0	47	0	0	47
Jax	0	24	0	0	16	40
Winder	0	0	38	0	0	38
Thielbar	10	0	0	11	17	38
Pagán	0	0	0	0	29	29
Funderburk	15	0	0	0	0	15
Durán	0	0	0	10	0	10

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[Matt Braun]

I don’t care about the platoon advantage; I’d much rather see Edouard Julien figure it out against a tough lefty when the alternative is Christian Vázquez. 

[rickyriolo]

Jax looks tired He needs a couple days off

[USAFChief]

Someone try to justify pinch hitting Vazquez in the 9th. Please. I'd love to hear it.

 

I'm officially done with Baldelli. We cannot have a manager capable of making a move that monumentally idiotic. 

Good lord. 

 

[USAFChief]

10 minutes ago, Matt Braun said:

I don’t care about the platoon advantage; I’d much rather see Edouard Julien figure it out against a tough lefty when the alternative is Christian Vázquez. 

That's only the half of it. You're missing the obvious:

Not only is Vazquez terrible, there was zero chance Vazquez would even HAVE the platoon advantage, and a 2 year old could see that coming a mile away. Zero chance. 

Rocco got played like a violin.

 

[mnfireman]

Would have rather seen Duran in the 9th inning of a tie game at home then Jax (or any other reliever for that matter). 

[SwainZag]

4 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Would have rather seen Duran in the 9th inning of a tie game at home then Jax (or any other reliever for that matter). 

And Jax in the 10th when the Twins don't score in the 9th?  Have to assume you would see Duran in the 10th if you make it that far.  I'm not using Duran in the 9th of a tie game unless you know he can for 2 innings, which..... with pitching yesterday and having 7 Straight games after today doesn't seem smart 

[jkcarew]

Jax with one of his unhittable sweepers…center cut. Is it just me…or has this been a theme for his 2023 streaks of poor results?

[jkcarew]

15 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

That's only the half of it. You're missing the obvious:

Not only is Vazquez terrible, there was zero chance Vazquez would even HAVE the platoon advantage, and a 2 year old could see that coming a mile away. Zero chance. 

Rocco got played like a violin.

 

It’s literally as if he’s surprised that there was another right-handed pitcher in their bullpen.

Or…

He thought the lefty had only faced 2 batters.

Either way…mind boggling.

[Galen]

Of Jax 5 homeruns given up...how many have been on fastballs?

Oh, and what a lousy pinch hitting decision...what do you think Julien must be thinking right now?

[SwainZag]

19 minutes ago, Galen said:

Of Jax 5 homeruns given up...how many have been on fastballs?

Oh, and what a lousy pinch hitting decision...what do you think Julien must be thinking right now?

That he should probably work pretty hard on hitting left handed pitching in the offseason. 

[LewFordLives]

Can we please end the Keuchel experiment? It's been a heartwarming story, and he's had some good moments, but he shouldn't be starting for a team that's trying to make it to the post-season. Ober is the better pitcher.

[jkcarew]

I can’t wait to see Walker Jenkins with the big club…

…being pinch-hit for in the 5th inning (occasionally earlier) by journeyman righties. Can’t wait.

[DJL44]

10 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

Can we please end the Keuchel experiment? It's been a heartwarming story, and he's had some good moments, but he shouldn't be starting for a team that's trying to make it to the post-season. Ober is the better pitcher.

They end the season with 9 games that should be pointless for both teams. Somebody needs to eat those innings.

[DJL44]

Today's loss makes it more likely they clinch at home against the Angels. Get your tickets now

It would be apt for this team if they clinch on Thursday 9/21 on an off day with a Cleveland loss to the Orioles.

[wsnydes]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

Someone try to justify pinch hitting Vazquez in the 9th. Please. I'd love to hear it.

 

I'm officially done with Baldelli. We cannot have a manager capable of making a move that monumentally idiotic. 

Good lord. 

 

 

 

[SotaSports in NM]

This was the third pinch hit at bat for Vasquez this year (all hitless). I actually felt like it was more than that. Can't find data to determine if the opposing team in turn negated the platoon 'advantage'.  

That wasn't a back breaking AB, as there were plenty of miscues, but not even Baldelli truly thought that was a good idea, right??

Rocco doesn't shy away from providing evidence of mismanagement. I do try to look at the positives far more than the negatives and give him the benefit of the doubt, but come onnnnnn please make it easier for me...

 

[USAFChief]

4 minutes ago, wsnydes said:

 

 

That has zero to do with pinch hitting Vazquez. 

 

[IaBeanCounter]

If you told me before this home stand started that we would go 3-3 and take 7 (maybe 8) games off our magic #, I would have taken it with no reservations.  However, the 3 losses are disappointing:

1) Jax gives up 2 runs in the 9th after the Twins were 0-7 with RISP (0-3 in the 9th)

2) Correa blows an easy play resulting in an unearned run, but also causing Gray to throw additional pitches that causes him to leave after 4.  Which results in  BP usage resulting in 5 addl runs in a 3 run game

3) Kepler plays a fly like he has never been in Target Field which results in 3 runs.  Jax comes into a tie game in the 9th and gives up a homer.

All three of these could have been wins and some of our wins could have been losses (Castro 2 run Hr).  It is frustrating, but at the same time promising that the Twins can compete with the best.

 

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, rickyriolo said:

Jax looks tired He needs a couple days off

You spelled months wrong.

[wsnydes]

8 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

That has zero to do with pinch hitting Vazquez. 

 

Yes it does.  Correa was the only other PH option, if that was what they were going to do. Sure, he could not have at all, but this at least explains why it was Vazquez and not Correa.

I'm not defending anything here.  I'm simply relaying the info.

[Beast]

Overall, a decent outing from the bullpen.  1 run in 5 innings.

But, hard to keep that perspective.  You’re not going to hold many leads right now when Floro, Pagan, and Jax are going 4 innings.  Nobody outside of Duran and Thielbar have any business being anywhere near a high leverage inning in the playoffs.

[jorgenswest]

After Julien's previous at bat I would have had a hard time sending him out there in the 9th. 

4-4 game. No outs. Farmer on first. 3-2 count. Twins send Farmer. Julien can't take a close pitch much less a strike in that situation. He needs to get that runner into scoring position. Julien strikes out looking and Farmer is caught stealing. Second time in the game he was caught looking at strike 3. The first time was after the pitcher is on the ropes having given up home runs to the last two batters. He needs to be more competitive there and fight off a close pitch. Keep the pitcher on the ropes. He looks at far too many called strike threes. 

The options were awful in the 9th inning. Do you send Julien and his OPS of 423 (13 strike outs and 0 walks) against left handed pitching. I was sure a strike out caught looking would happen in that case. Do you send Vazquez and his 595 OPS against right handed pitching? It's a lose-lose situation here.

The choice isn't clear cut to me. In most games I probably hope on Julien but not after his previous at bat. 

[PDX Twin]

Quote

The Rays scored three runs in the top of the second. Curtis Mead led off the inning with a triple that left his bat at 100 mph, then scored on a fielder’s choice a couple of at-bats later. Tampa Bay continued to push, and with two on and two outs, Díaz got his revenge on Keuchel by hitting a long double to deep center to score both runners.

You make it sound like the "triple" was something more than a warning-track fly ball. Whatever combination of shadows and life's demons caused Kepler to miss that ball are not Kuechel's fault. It should have been an out, not the "triple" that Gameday calls it.

[darwin22]

Didnt see the end of the game as I had an afternoon tee time.  Can't say the golf experience was satisfying (it seldomly is), but, like others, I would've been cussing out our fearless leader for sending Vazquez up to pinch hit for Julien with 2 outs.

I can understand pinch hitting for Julien as he's been abysmal against LH pitching (9-42/,214 avg with 1 RBI in addition to 13 K's and zero walks.

What I can't understand is pinch hitting Vazquez when Correa was available!!!!

Did Rocco forget Correa was there?  Did his spreadsheet have some hidden nugget telling him Vazquez was the better option?  Was Correa in the clubhouse?  

Vazquez sure battled in that AB...didn't he Rocco?   3 pitches= game over.   Ugh.  Just ugh.  

[darwin22]

The only positive from today was seeing the Guardians gag away a 3-run 8th inning lead to lose 6-5 in the 10th!!

Former Twin---------wish we had him back----Lamont Wade, Jr---coming through with a professional AB (sacrifice fly) for the W.

 

[wsnydes]

17 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

After Julien's previous at bat I would have had a hard time sending him out there in the 9th. 

4-4 game. No outs. Farmer on first. 3-2 count. Twins send Farmer. Julien can't take a close pitch much less a strike in that situation. He needs to get that runner into scoring position. Julien strikes out looking and Farmer is caught stealing. Second time in the game he was caught looking at strike 3. The first time was after the pitcher is on the ropes having given up home runs to the last two batters. He needs to be more competitive there and fight off a close pitch. Keep the pitcher on the ropes. He looks at far too many called strike threes. 

The options were awful in the 9th inning. Do you send Julien and his OPS of 423 (13 strike outs and 0 walks) against left handed pitching. I was sure a strike out caught looking would happen in that case. Do you send Vazquez and his 595 OPS against right handed pitching? It's a lose-lose situation here.

The choice isn't clear cut to me. In most games I probably hope on Julien but not after his previous at bat. 

It would appear that you're on the right track as far as the logic of PHing for Julien.  Yikes!

 

 

[Cave Bear]

Why do they keep sending Jax out there? We haven't seen this type of futility since the Ron Davis days. When a RELIEVER has double digit losses it's time to try out someone from the minors or even possibly drop a starter to the bullpen. Keuchel or Ober or something - anything!

[SoDakTwinsFan4]

1 hour ago, IaBeanCounter said:

If you told me before this home stand started that we would go 3-3 and take 7 (maybe 8) games off our magic #, I would have taken it with no reservations.  However, the 3 losses are disappointing:

1) Jax gives up 2 runs in the 9th after the Twins were 0-7 with RISP (0-3 in the 9th)

2) Correa blows an easy play resulting in an unearned run, but also causing Gray to throw additional pitches that causes him to leave after 4.  Which results in  BP usage resulting in 5 addl runs in a 3 run game

3) Kepler plays a fly like he has never been in Target Field which results in 3 runs.  Jax comes into a tie game in the 9th and gives up a homer.

All three of these could have been wins and some of our wins could have been losses (Castro 2 run Hr).  It is frustrating, but at the same time promising that the Twins can compete with the best.

 

Agreed on all points. Twins are going to have to play clean in order to win in October.

[jorgenswest]

11 minutes ago, wsnydes said:

It would appear that you're on the right track as far as the logic of PHing for Julien.  Yikes!

 

 

Julien has the skill to be better than that number.

If in his previous at bat he had even just moved the runner over with a ground out I stick with him. It was those two previous at bats where he needs to get the message that they need him to compete when there are two strikes. He has the skill to fight those close pitches off. I hope we see a better Julien come October. Maybe a message was received today. If it is me and the manager sends out his weakest hitter to pinch hit for me in the 9th it is going to shake me up quite a bit.