Rays 5, Twins 4: Twins Rally Falls Short, End in Ninth-Inning Heartbreaker

[IaBeanCounter]

Baseball Savant has a swing and miss chart for batters.  I tried to post it here, but my tech abilities are limited.   What it showed was Julien was -1 runs on balls in the heart of the plate (i.e. true strikes) with 6 runs created by swings and -7 runs on takes.  In the shadow zone around the true strike zone (50/50 pitches) Julien was -15 runs (-12 on swings, -3 on takes).  In the next two zones, chase and waste, Julien was -4 on swings and +26 on takes for net of +22 on true balls.

I was surprised that Julien was a net negative on the pitches in the heart of the plate.  All takes in this zone are negative, but I expected him to have a positive swing results that would exceed the takes.  It also surprised me that Julien was -12 on swings in the shadow zone.  It seems to me that he has been rung up a lot on pitches in this area, so I expected the takes to be a large negative, but was only -3.  

 

 

[Minny505]

Did anyone else think Castro got jobbed on that hit-by-pitch? I saw the replay and assumed he would be awarded first base when the ball grazed his hand. It seemed obvious.

[USAFChief]

16 minutes ago, Minny505 said:

Did anyone else think Castro got jobbed on that hit-by-pitch? I saw the replay and assumed he would be awarded first base when the ball grazed his hand. It seemed obvious.

You must have seen a different replay than I did. 

[Minny505]

4 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

You must have seen a different replay than I did. 

I was watching the Rays broadcast. So...maybe🤷‍♂️

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, IaBeanCounter said:

Baseball Savant has a swing and miss chart for batters.  I tried to post it here, but my tech abilities are limited.   What it showed was Julien was -1 runs on balls in the heart of the plate (i.e. true strikes) with 6 runs created by swings and -7 runs on takes.  In the shadow zone around the true strike zone (50/50 pitches) Julien was -15 runs (-12 on swings, -3 on takes).  In the next two zones, chase and waste, Julien was -4 on swings and +26 on takes for net of +22 on true balls.

I was surprised that Julien was a net negative on the pitches in the heart of the plate.  All takes in this zone are negative, but I expected him to have a positive swing results that would exceed the takes.  It also surprised me that Julien was -12 on swings in the shadow zone.  It seems to me that he has been rung up a lot on pitches in this area, so I expected the takes to be a large negative, but was only -3.  

That says to me that Julien is a league average hitter on obvious strikes. He's not very good on pitches on the corners but he doesn't chase which makes up for it.

How much of the -12 on swings in the shadow zone is vs LHP?

[IaBeanCounter]

4 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

How much of the -12 on swings in the shadow zone is vs LHP?

Don't know how to get that info, as I said I my tech abilities are limited.

[Patzky]

7 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

That says to me that Julien is a league average hitter on obvious strikes. He's not very good on pitches on the corners but he doesn't chase which makes up for it.

How much of the -12 on swings in the shadow zone is vs LHP?

You make it sound like Julien is susceptible to umpires with wide (not tall) strike zones. It would be interesting to match these stats with specific umpires as well as pitchers to see what conclusions there are. Earlier this year it was mentioned that the minor league callups had a great perception of the strike zone ostensibly because they knew they could appeal a given pitch. Obviously not an option at Target Field .

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Patzky said:

You make it sound like Julien is susceptible to umpires with wide (not tall) strike zones. It would be interesting to match these stats with specific umpires as well as pitchers to see what conclusions there are. Earlier this year it was mentioned that the minor league callups had a great perception of the strike zone ostensibly because they knew they could appeal a given pitch. Obviously not an option at Target Field .

If you look at the swing profile Julien has a clear hole down and in (batting average .000). That's unusual for a lefty, many of them like to golf the down and in pitch over the fence. He also is below average on pitches that drop (sinkers, splitters).

MLB Swing Profiles | baseballsavant.com

[rwilfong86]

10 hours ago, chinmusic said:

Gimme Toronto. The Jays are reeling right now, and look extremely vulnerable.

I watched the condensed version of their matchup with Texas last night, 10-0 (!) Rangers at the Rogers centre.

At the end of the clip the camera panned on Berrios in the dugout. I interpreted his expression as "gee, I wish I was still on the Twins."

They just took 5 of 7 against them and Scherzer is done. I would rather see Texas than Toronto.

[Cave Bear]

On 9/13/2023 at 7:13 PM, Blyleven2011 said:

You must not have watched last season when Pagan was our Ron Davis  ....

Oh, I surely remember him but not even close to Ron Davis. Jax and Davis are the only Twins relievers in my memory of losing double digit games as a reliever. Starters - yes, relievers - no. That means they came into the game ahead or tied and blew the game. With the pitching rules where the men on base belong to the previous pitcher(s) it's not that easy to actually get saddled with a loss.