Twins 5, Tigers 3: Wallner Slam Leads Twins Over Miguel Cabrera and the Tigers

[Steven Trefz]

This game started like most of the Twins-Tigers games in 2023. The Tigers take an early lead, the Twins fail to amount any offense whatsoever, and all hope seems lost. Enter Matt Wallner, a 111 mph grand slam in the bottom of the sixth inning, and a re-write to the season narrative. Here's how it all went down.

Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson, USA Today

 

Box Score
Starting pitcher: Bailey Ober: 5 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 5 K ( 87 Pitches, 56 Strikes, 64%)
Home Runs: Matt Wallner (9)
Top 3 WPA: Wallner (.197), Carlos Correa (.115), Max Kepler (.100)
Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs):

Mr. Cabrera, You Can Retire Now
Bailey Ober's night started well, with help from his catcher Ryan Jeffers' right arm and a throw out of Akil Baddoo at second to clean up the bases in the top of the first. After the Twins went three-up, three-down in the bottom of the first, the Tigers bit hard in the top of the second. With one out, Kerry Carpenter walked. Ober then tried to sneak an 0-1 fastball down the middle to one of the greatest hitters of all time, and 438 feet later the score was 2-0 Tigers.

Why Can't the Twins Beat the Tigers?
The Twins entered today's game having gone 4-7 against the Tigers in 2023. With a losing record in the season series already guaranteed, the Twins were attempting to at least gain some semblance of respectability as they march toward their potential playoff bid. The root causes involve a lack of offense on the Twins' part (3.36 runs per game) and pitching struggles (giving up 4.45 runs per game). 

Ober faced the Tigers twice already this season, with both outings trailing his season statistics. He held the Tigers in check after Cabrera's blast, escaping a bases loaded situation in the top of the fourth by striking out Isan Diaz. Ober's pitch count climbed to 87, however, before he concluded the fifth inning, and the bullpen was destined to have their rested-ness tested yet again.

Twins Offense...Please? Anything?
Alex Faedo is not a Cy Young award candidate, but you wouldn't have known that the way the Twins offense looked against him over the first five innings. Faedo got six strike outs and surrendered only one hit through his first two trips through the Twins lineup. Luckily for the Twins, the Tigers, for some reason that made sense on some separate universe, pulled Faedo after only 81 pitches and five innings of work.

Bullpen Time! Advantage Twins?
Dylan Floro came in to face the top of the Tigers' lineup in the sixth inning, and thanks to a sweetly turned double play by Carlos Correa and Jorge Polanco he held them scoreless. Jose Cisnero came in for the Tigers to face the top of the Twins lineup in the sixth inning, and thanks to a classic pee wee baseball play by Vierling and Eric Haase on a Max Kepler foul pop, the Twins found themselves with runners at the corners and nobody out.

Newly-reinstated Royce Lewis found himself up at the opportune time, and he decided it was time for the shutout to be over.

Cisnero's night was over, and Will Vest came in to face Correa with runners at first and second. The good news, Correa finally caught a break as he beat out an infield bouncer. The bad news, that loaded the bases...and that situation has been kryptonite to the Twins this season. Matt Wallner came to the plate, looking to reverse that curse, and he delivered grandly!

Can the Twins Hold On?
Wallner's slam flipped the score to 5-2, but flipped the Twins bullpen into its hold-and-save mode. Emilio Pagan took on Cabrera and the gang in the seventh, and set them down 1-2-3. Insurance runs were on the bases for the Twins in the bottom of the seventh, and Correa remembered the bases loaded curse, bouncing into a double play to keep the score 5-2.

Caleb Thielbar was the next man up for the Twins, and he mowed down the Tigers 1-2-3 again, with another great play by Polanco to close out the inning. Jhoan Duran got the ninth, and gave up an 0-2 home run to Spencer Torkelson. Cabrera came up as the tying run as well, but an amazing play by Correa cut him down at first. Duran struck out the Zach McKinstry to end the threat, and the ballgame at 5-3.

What’s Next: The Twins wrap up their season series against the Tigers by sending RHP Kenta Maeda (3-7, 3.97 ERA) to the mound Wednesday afternoon.. His opponent will be Tigers rookie RHP Reese Olson (2-5, 4.45 ERA), who threw six scoreless innings in a win against the Twins on 8/10.  First pitch is scheduled for 12:10pm CDT.

 

Postgame Interviews:

 

Bullpen Usage Chart:

	FRI	SAT	SUN	MON	TUES	TOT
Winder	43	0	0	0	0	43
Thielbar	0	15	14	0	9	38
Durán	0	0	13	0	14	27
Jax	0	15	12	0	0	27
Pagán	0	0	9	0	11	20
Balazovic	0	18	0	0	0	18
Floro	0	0	0	0	14	14
Sands	0	0	0	0	0	0

 

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[BH67]

Success in modern baseball seems to depend most on the quality of the bullpen en masse. Not my flavor, but oh well.

[VivaBomboRivera!]

Feels like we've been waiting for that sixth inning all season.  My goodness.

Are we done being (the wrong kind of) streaky?

[USAFChief]

A couple thoughts:

Some pretty snazzy Twins defense tonight.

There were some bad ABs tonight, but in the 6th both Kepler and Walner battled their tails off, and both paid off great ABs with key hits.

 

It appears maybe Jax is working himself out of Rocco's Circle Of Trust.

 

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

A couple thoughts:

Some pretty snazzy Twins defense tonight.

There were some bad ABs tonight, but in the 6th both Kepler and Walner battled their tails off, and both paid off great ABs with key hits.

 

It appears maybe Jax is working himself out of Rocco's Circle Of Trust.

 

Agree on all points, but hope that Jax can work his way back into the Circle of Trust. 

[Parfigliano]

4 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Agree on all points, but hope that Jax can work his way back into the Circle of Trust. 

He better get back in because this BP needs all the + arms it can get

[gunnarthor]

Fudge it, I've seen enough. I've watched some good Twins teams get nowhere in the playoffs. This team isn't good but they'll be the one that breaks the streak and actually advances in the playoffs. 😃

[DocBauer]

I'm still uncertain where Polanco fits in for 2024, but he's a favorite of mine. And he looked like he had 28yo legs tonight, not 35yo legs.

Ober worked a little hard, but was still very good.

I'm NOT going to miss Cabrera as an opponent, but I'm going to miss him as a baseball fan. Absolutely a HOF. Has anyone ever said a bad word about him?

Wallner....hmmm...milb hitter of the year....rakes at AAA...flashes potential when given a chance. FINALLY given a real opportunity over poor veteran production and what does he do? Make a serious splash!  Is the FO starting to finally realize they should trust in the talent they've accumulated vs poor depth pieces?

Sure wish we could see a few more younger guys before the season is done.

[RaoulDuke]

Lewis/ Julien/ Wallner all near 900 ops, carrying this offense.  So cool to watch, if the vets can consistently show up it can be a competitive lineup.

Duran is worrying me a tad bit, they need to get him some rest but then Pagan or Jax is your closer for a week which is far from ideal.

[Dave Borton]

Quote

The Twins entered today's game having gone 4-7 against the Tigers in 2023. ... The root causes involve a lack of offense on the Twins' part (3.36 runs per game) and pitching struggles (giving up 4.45 runs per game).

The root cause might well be the Tigers club wishes to be a spoiler. Knowing their fortune, it is good to kick the mediocre King of Division in the shins when you have a chance.

 

Quote

Luckily for the Twins, the Tigers, for some reason that made sense on some separate universe, pulled Faedo after only 81 pitches and five innings of work.

Had the game on Detroit radio. Dan Dickerson suggested that Hinch wanted Faedo to gain a win, go to the bench with some confidence, moving his record to 2-5 after 9 starts this year.

By the way, he is allowing a .202 hitting against opponents and commands a .99 wHip.

[bighat]

That was Cabrera's SECOND homer of the season? Woof. That said, I agree with others, guy's a class act and he deserves every accolade given. I'm sure the Tigers are pretty pleased he's moving on.....

Wallner continues to be 'da man on offense. Bat this kid 4th every day, best offensive weapon we have. Next to Royce, of course, who should be batting 3rd. The time is now for these guys. 

Let's win today. 

[Peter]

Defence was magnificent!!! C4 and Polanco were awesome!!! Grand slam by Wallner. Twins win!!! Get the sweep today!!!

[CRF]

I don't know why we have so much trouble with the Tigers, but we sure do. We make all their starting pitchers seem like ace material. Last night was looking like another clunker until Wallner rescued us. Another one of their "aces" going today...Olson, and he made us look like total chumps last time. We have to FINALLY clobber these guys. We need another great start from Maeda today, and the bats have to deliver. 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

I'll eat an appetizer portion of crow on Wallner because I was ready to trade him at the deadline. He's showing that he could very well be a long-term fixture in the outfield.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Oh, and the Tigers are just an annoying team. Vierling, Carpenter, Torkelson, McKinstry. Pesky and they don't go away. They also have a pretty good manager. Will be glad when the Twins are done with them for the season.

[Riverbrian]

If "Wall" means "Wall". 

I wonder if "Ner" means "Over it". 

 

[jmlease1]

Huge hit by Wallner, an absolute no-doubter to finish off a really good AB. His approach at the plate has been very good and he's doing a very nice job out there. (a little less excited about him nearly wiping out Correa on defense; need a little better communication out there) I'll admit, I enjoyed how much Justin Morneau was into Wallner's slam, that was fun.

Hopefully we can find a little more consistency in the offense and it's not just one big inning or bust. Those games get a little nervvy. Thought Royce looked pretty good out there considering the fairly long layoff.

I love Correa's defense. I know his stats haven't been as impressive as some other years, but he's still so good out there. He makes plays few Twins have ever made at SS. Polanco had a couple of really nice ones out there too, which was good to see.

[Linus]

Wallner and Lewis had good at bats. Swinging at strikes laying off the balls and battling. It’s interesting that they seemed to be getting fooled less than the veterans. Hat tip to Polo - he saved them a couple of runs with some slick defense. He and Correa seem to work together nicely. 

[mikelink45]

Hinch proved, once again, that going by the book is not wise.  Faedo should have gone as far as possible, especially when you have a BP that is deficient in every category.  But thank you A J for sticking with your plan. 

[jorgenswest]

7 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I'm still uncertain where Polanco fits in for 2024, but he's a favorite of mine. And he looked like he had 28yo legs tonight, not 35yo legs.

Ober worked a little hard, but was still very good.

I'm NOT going to miss Cabrera as an opponent, but I'm going to miss him as a baseball fan. Absolutely a HOF. Has anyone ever said a bad word about him?

Wallner....hmmm...milb hitter of the year....rakes at AAA...flashes potential when given a chance. FINALLY given a real opportunity over poor veteran production and what does he do? Make a serious splash!  Is the FO starting to finally realize they should trust in the talent they've accumulated vs poor depth pieces?

Sure wish we could see a few more younger guys before the season is done.

He did make significant strides in his strikeout rate between his first and second call up. Credit to him for the work.

[Tibs]

It was a great crowd last night, especially for a Tuesday night game. It was very loud at Target Field for Wallner's grand slam

[DJL44]

Duran is not pitching well lately. It shows how good his stuff is that he can pitch poorly and still do the job but he needs to make some adjustments.

[Blyleven2011]

Wallner was recalled on July 15th to replace Miranda  on the 26 man roster ....

 Since recall  , 

92 at bats ...

9 home runs ...

22 rbi's ... 

Scored 18 runs 

In a month he has been productive , on pace for a full season his numbers would be mvp worthy  ...

It was a great at bat and a game changer last night , we needed the win and you were the one that stepped up and won it , thank you   wallner ...

[IaBeanCounter]

I've been complaining about Duran use of the curveball.  I thought he was getting beat badly on the curve, so I googled his batting average against the curve.  BBSavant had the breakdown against his FB, Split & Curve.  I was shocked to see his curve was statistically his best pitch .154 BA, .144 XBA, .308 SLG & .244 XSLG.  FB is .241, .256, .466, and .436 respectively.   Split is .246, .186, .333 & .293.  Can someone give a reason as to why the curve numbers are so good?  My bias may be that I feel Duran's FB is his best pitch and when someone hits it, I just tip my cap.  When someone hits the curve, I feel like Duran should have used his best pitch.

 

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

He did make significant strides in his strikeout rate between his first and second call up. Credit to him for the work.

Gotta think with Lee pushing into the infield by middle of ‘24……,the fact that Farmer is signed for ‘24………..the need to get Julien on the field………….Castro being the speed catalyst for the club………all this adds up to a bunch of guys at 2B & letting Jorge go after ‘23, IMO.

Saving approximately $10M as well.

[stringer bell]

1 minute ago, JD-TWINS said:

Gotta think with Lee pushing into the infield by middle of ‘24……,the fact that Farmer is signed for ‘24………..the need to get Julien on the field………….Castro being the speed catalyst for the club………all this adds up to a bunch of guys at 2B & letting Jorge go after ‘23, IMO.

Saving approximately $10M as well.

Farmer is not signed for 2024. He will be in his final arbitration year. The Twins could non-tender him or trade him, if they choose. Farmer's situation will be quite similar to Gio's (this year) except that he'll be coming off a much less productive season.

[jorgenswest]

Just now, JD-TWINS said:

Gotta think with Lee pushing into the infield by middle of ‘24……,the fact that Farmer is signed for ‘24………..the need to get Julien on the field………….Castro being the speed catalyst for the club………all this adds up to a bunch of guys at 2B & letting Jorge go after ‘23, IMO.

Saving approximately $10M as well.

Not sure how letting Jorge go is related to Wallner’s work getting his strike rate down.

I can add that Farmer is not signed through 24. They do have control if they choose to bring the 33 year old back on his third year arb salary. I wouldn’t bring him back. I would exercise Polanco’s option.

[joefish]

I would like to see how we compare to giving up HR'S with 2 strikes on the hitters. And two strike hits as well. Is it pitch calling/selection, or location. Way too many, way too often, in big situations

[JD-TWINS]

10 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Not sure how letting Jorge go is related to Wallner’s work getting his strike rate down.

I can add that Farmer is not signed through 24. They do have control if they choose to bring the 33 year old back on his third year arb salary. I wouldn’t bring him back. I would exercise Polanco’s option.

It doesn’t connect to Wallner - thought I was commenting on how Polanco fits, from DocBauer’s thought.

Farmer at $5M? “under team control for an established number”……….RH bat ………..& Julien at $700K……LH bat ……& Castro from either side for depth. 

Polanco, at 29, has played 47 games as an “everyday player” after 121……..Farmer has played 87 games as a “utility guy.” They are both hitting .240…….,,don’t have the spilts but I assume Farmer is at least comparable from right side of the plate. Polanco has 100 points advantage in OPS in ‘23.

Farmer availability, along with Julien seems to be a good fit for ‘24.

Polanco’s $10M from this year’s budget to apply to pitching in ‘24.

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

He did make significant strides in his strikeout rate between his first and second call up. Credit to him for the work.

Looked a couple days ago & he went from previous number down into mid twenties by percentage on K’s in St. Paul. Realistically, he did K 3 times around the granny last night.

After 104 AB’s he projects “conservatively”, with 550 AB’s in a full season, to a .235 hitter with nearly 100RBI - around 100 runs scored - mid 30’s K % - 40 HR - .850 plus OPS.

Great arm.

Nice player!