What Twins Free Agent Starter Do the Twins Bring Back?

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins made it their mission to have substantial depth this season. They have accomplished that both on the mound and in the field, but there is somewhat of an exodus in the rotation heading into 2024. Will any of the free agents come back, and if so, which one?

 

Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

After seeing Rocco Baldelli hamstrung with bad pitching performances and exhausting his options over the past few seasons, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine built a strong stable for the starting rotation. That led to Bailey Ober and Louie Varland beginning the year with Triple-A St. Paul, and Toby Gardenhire’s group had plenty of mouths to feed.

Beyond the big-league rotation, Minnesota still has Varland at Triple-A. Dallas Keuchel has now made two starts for the Twins. Simeon Woods Richardson has shown flashes, and Brent Headrick is a prospect in limbo. Marco Raya and David Festa could also be options to debut next season.

Looking forward to 2024, the Twins will have open spots in the rotation as Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, and the currently-injured Tyler Mahle all head out into free agency. The question is, do any of them come back, and what would that look like?

Least Likely - Sonny Gray
Minnesota never seriously wanted to consider dealing Gray during the season but  was approached  by the Tigers about a three-way opportunity with them landing Eduardo Rodriguez. Either way, they would likely pitch him into the postseason and hand him a qualifying offer when the dust settled.

Gray has floated the idea of retiring, but it was likely positioning more than reality. The Twins would love to have him back at $20 million on a one-year deal, but it makes much more sense for him to target multiple years. A month ago, I outlined what that may look like, and the rich price tag there would take Minnesota out of competition for his services.

Somewhat Unlikely - Kenta Maeda
Brought to Major League Baseball by the Los Angeles Dodgers way back in 2016, Maeda’s contract was immediately weird in how it was structured. Just a $25 million deal through 2023, he had plenty of incentives to take things higher while protecting an organization against his potential arm issues.

Minnesota flipped Brusdar Graterol for Maeda, and he provided the Twins with a Cy Young-caliber performance in 2020. His arm blew out, and the Tommy John surgery, always thought possible, reared its head. Across eight starts since returning from the IL, Maeda owns a shiny 2.47 ERA and is allowing just a .597 OPS against.

Maeda’s market is unknown, but the Twins could be interested in sticking with a veteran they know. He’s 35 years old and unlikely to find a mega deal. A one or two-year agreement could make sense, and Maeda has shown well within the Twins organization. Familiarity could be something he values; even with the strong performance of late, his valuation shouldn’t be absurd.

Most Likely - Tyler Mahle
This move may irk fans who still hate the trade that sent Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand to the Cincinnati Reds. At the time, although aggressive, the move was very good, and blew up solely with Mahle blowing out his elbow. Minnesota should not bring him back exclusively to save face and pull something out of the deal, but this is a path they have taken before.

Mahle will undoubtedly be unavailable to pitch in 2024. He underwent Tommy John surgery in May and will be eased back into action. There was some shoulder soreness briefly with the Reds, and regardless of where he rehabs, Mahle will look to get everything built back to competition level.

This front office offered Michael Pineda an opportunity to work through surgery under the organization’s direction, and he rewarded them with some solid output. Chris Paddack was acquired as the focal point of a trade that included Emilio Pagan, and the controllable starter was available because of his injury concerns. The Twins also extended him, and he seems to be trending toward an Opening Day roster spot next year.

If the Twins still believe in the upside they saw in Mahle when he was acquired, bringing him back on a team-friendly deal makes a lot of sense. He noted that Minnesota felt like a good place to be, and pitching depth with strong upside while avoiding substantial cost is a good way to build.

Is there a starter that you want the Twins to bring back for 2024? How far do you want them to go to make that happen?

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[Karbo]

I think Gray gets a qualify offer, but I don't think he'll take it. I just get the feeling he doesn't want to stay. I could see Maeda going for a 2 year deal, if he wants to stay. I also think the Twins will offer a deal to Mahle, though it shouldn't break the bank. If gray leaves paddock could slide in to his place. If both Gray and Maeda leave they still can fill out with Paddock and Varland. Now if they can build up the pen!

[mikelink45]

I would drop Mahle, but I am seldom in line with the FO. If they want Gray to stay they might have to fire Rocco and get a new pitching coach.  Maeda is the most intriguing and most likely.  The one I would keep. 

But I really am concerned about the Twins inability to work with our young pitching staff.  Headrick, Balazovic, Winder have not prospered so why do we think the next round of call ups will? Ryan grew up in a different system. Ober is the exception, but I am worried about his stamina for the rest of the season.  

[JD-TWINS]

Maeda - rebuilt arm & at 35, he has a couple years left. Great competitor & fits with the team. He gets guys out!! I’d guess 2 years at $11-$13M each……maybe a heavy bonus for innings pitched each year as a two way incentive?

Gray - qualifying offer. Not SURE anybody goes over $20M? He’s 34 or will be & he’s had injury stints almost every year until ‘23……might be surprised?….…draft pick makes sense as the alternative.

Mahle - would need to be $5M in ‘24 & then some incentive heavy deal, with maybe a $12-$14M base through ‘26. Big risk - probably not worthwhile with the potential for lingering shoulder issue. I live in Cinti and struggled watching him pitch here - same with Twins. Too much nibbling - chasing strikeouts - leads to walks - high pitch counts early - & then the HR/Big inning comes. He gives up HR everywhere, 3 in first outing in Minneapolis. Don’t believe the, “it only happens in Great American Ballpark”……he can be brutal anywhere. His approach frustrates me so I’m probably a little tougher on him than others might be……..been watching him 4 years.

[JD-TWINS]

21 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I think Gray gets a qualify offer, but I don't think he'll take it. I just get the feeling he doesn't want to stay. I could see Maeda going for a 2 year deal, if he wants to stay. I also think the Twins will offer a deal to Mahle, though it shouldn't break the bank. If gray leaves paddock could slide in to his place. If both Gray and Maeda leave they still can fill out with Paddock and Varland. Now if they can build up the pen!

Similar thoughts:

Maeda - Ober - Ryan - Lopez - Paddack………Varland…….FA that can pitch (not Mahle) for something in the range offered to Gray?……….or roll with potential from the Farm & invest in couple guys for the Pen?

Stable starting 1-5 is something I think we’ll take for granted going forward…….it’s not a typical situation to get good starts day after day. See last 3 weeks!!!

[dxpavelka]

MAYBE 2024 is the year SWR brings a return on the Berrios deal.  OR maybe we move ANOTHER asset to replace Berrios again....

[gman]

I think both Maeda and Mahli are more likely options than Gray. I agree with others who think he will leave. Maeda is showing that spinning the ball can have just as big an impact as throwing harder. I think that Balazovic, SWR & Varland could learn a lot from him. Or else  send them all with Ryan to his off season pitching program at Driveline.

[DJL44]

Looking forward to seeing this article again in September and October, possibly again in November.

[JD-TWINS]

Maeda is a solid guy. Good attitude around clubhouse and he is a tough competitor. Can’t go wrong with him - rebuilt arm with experience!! Not too expensive either at 35-37yrs. old.

Paddack - Ober - Ryan - Lopez……Maeda gives us a nice #4-5 guy!

[Fire Dan Gladden]

3 hours ago, Karbo said:

I think Gray gets a qualify offer, but I don't think he'll take it. I just get the feeling he doesn't want to stay. I could see Maeda going for a 2 year deal, if he wants to stay. I also think the Twins will offer a deal to Mahle, though it shouldn't break the bank. If gray leaves paddock could slide in to his place. If both Gray and Maeda leave they still can fill out with Paddock and Varland. Now if they can build up the pen!

I am almost 100% in agreement here:

Offer Gray the QO.  If he takes it, great.  If not, that means he wants a multi-year contract I can't see the Twins offering.

Could easily see Maeda back.  I think 2-3 years is reasonable, especially if they do not tie salary to starts.  His flexibility could be a huge swing in the Twins favor.

Mahle should get a Pineda-type offer, which he would be dumb not to take.

That being said, I am not convinced they will stand pat with the youth if Gray/Maeda leave.  Would not be surprised to see another SP FA addition in the offseason.

[Hashim]

3 hours ago, Karbo said:

I think Gray gets a qualify offer, but I don't think he'll take it. I just get the feeling he doesn't want to stay. I could see Maeda going for a 2 year deal, if he wants to stay. I also think the Twins will offer a deal to Mahle, though it shouldn't break the bank. If gray leaves paddock could slide in to his place. If both Gray and Maeda leave they still can fill out with Paddock and Varland. Now if they can build up the pen!

Spot on. Gray and Maeda will be gone I believe. We definitely need bullpen help. 

[Hashim]

It’s unlikely but I think we should bring all of them back, we can never have enough pitchers. Convert Maeda to reliever if you need to. Let Mahle rehab as much as needed. I would have a 6 man rotation and let them battle out for starting. The only guaranteed starters are Lopez, Ryan, Ober and Gray if he comes back. A 6 man rotation will take pressure off the bullpen too. 

[Brandon]

2024 Rotation:

Lopez

Ober

Ryan

Mead

Paddack

Varland

Dobnak

rehabbing Mahle 

whoever wants to be the 8th starter

where does Keuchel fit in all of this?

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I am almost 100% in agreement here:

Offer Gray the QO.  If he takes it, great.  If not, that means he wants a multi-year contract I can't see the Twins offering.

Could easily see Maeda back.  I think 2-3 years is reasonable, especially if they do not tie salary to starts.  His flexibility could be a huge swing in the Twins favor.

Mahle should get a Pineda-type offer, which he would be dumb not to take.

That being said, I am not convinced they will stand pat with the youth if Gray/Maeda leave.  Would not be surprised to see another SP FA addition in the offseason.

They would free up approximately $33M not pursuing Mahle & Gray & Maeda……seems there would be funds for a FA arm.

2 FA Pen arms on 2 year deals v. a starter?? Short term risk with 2 year deals.

I’d like at least one successful reliever that’s not washed - along with Maeda.

Gallo - Polanco - Taylor free up another $25-27M

[LA Vikes Fan]

41 minutes ago, Brandon said:

2024 Rotation:

Lopez

Ober

Ryan

Mead

Paddack

Varland

Dobnak

rehabbing Mahle 

whoever wants to be the 8th starter

where does Keuchel fit in all of this?

He Doesn't. What we saw last night is what Kuechel is against a good lineup. He's gone after this year, maybe even before his next start. He only stays the rest of the year if they decide to keep him as a long man in the bullpen. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

51 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

They would free up approximately $33M not pursuing Mahle & Gray & Maeda……seems there would be funds for a FA arm.

2 FA Pen arms on 2 year deals v. a starter?? Short term risk with 2 year deals.

I’d like at least one successful reliever that’s not washed - along with Maeda.

Gallo - Polanco - Taylor free up another $25-27M

Everybody wants a strong BP.

But...

With very few exceptions, spending any substantial amount of money on FA relievers should terrify you.  The volatility of relief pitchers is crazy.  

[Linus]

Give Gray the QO and take the pick. I wouldn’t touch Mahle. His shoulder was a problem before the elbow and he was pretty meh here. Maeda I would definitely bring back - he’s pitching great and should age well as he doesn’t rely on velocity. In fact I would choose him over the other two even up. 

[DocBauer]

I like Gray a lot for results and leadership. And no question he gets the QO. If he takes it, the Twins are more than happy to pay it. But I think he gets a 3yr deal from someone else and the Twins won't want to pay him $20M annually for ages 34-36. 

But while I'm talking about both sides of my mouth, I'd bring Maeda back even though he's older. I believe in his smarts, control, and experience. I believe in his rebuilt arm. I believe in a real chance of more IP and less chance of injury than Gray. And I also believe 2yrs at around $14-15 per gets it done.

I'm OK with the Mahle idea. I'm not sure $5M to sit foe an entire season of rehab makes sense, but if it makes year two cheaper, I'm OK with the number. It was some smart maneuvering in regard  to Pineda and could be smart here as well. I don't think $5M and then another year of, oh, say $13M is any kind of financial burden.

But of the 3 options, I just think Maeda is the best move. And just like this year began, I want it to be tough to pick your best 5, while having a couple nice options at AAA.

[CRF]

I'd like Maeda to stick around, and I think he's got the best chance to stay. I'd be ok with Gray coming back, but I don't think he wants to be here. Let Mahle go. Never liked that deal. We took our lumps on that one. 

[Oldgoat_MN]

Like any other pitcher on the open market, all we have to do is offer more money than anyone else. 

Who wants to pitch for a team that doesn't score runs? This is exactly what Sonny was talking about when he spoke of retiring. It's like everyone ignored his comments about having fun.

I believe we will have a more potent offense next year with AK & Lewis, however. Waller too, if this brilliant FO doesn't resign Gallo.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, Linus said:

Give Gray the QO and take the pick. I wouldn’t touch Mahle. His shoulder was a problem before the elbow and he was pretty meh here. Maeda I would definitely bring back - he’s pitching great and should age well as he doesn’t rely on velocity. In fact I would choose him over the other two even up. 

Yup.  If only sign one for next year make it Maeda

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, CRF said:

I'd like Maeda to stick around, and I think he's got the best chance to stay. I'd be ok with Gray coming back, but I don't think he wants to be here. Let Mahle go. Never liked that deal. We took our lumps on that one. 

Odds of Gray staying go up the more it looks like Rocco is leaving.

[DJL44]

4 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Would not be surprised to see another SP FA addition in the offseason.

I wouldn't be surprised to see another trade for a starting pitcher.

[jkcarew]

At a minimum, the Twins HAVE to extend the QO to Gray, excluding serious injury between now and end of year. And I seriously doubt they offer a competitive muti-year deal. Question is…will he end up taking the QO? Probably not, but it wouldn’t shock me, either.

Mahle, they may end up landing at a discount…if his health is encouraging, the Twins might take advantage of his depressed market.

But, I don’t think you should COUNT on either of Mahle or Paddock being both healthy and good.

And, IMO…you can’t count on any of the current AAA guy’s being good yet in 2024. I know you have to pull the trigger and ride with some of the prospects at some point, but boy…Headrick, Enlow, SWR, Varland, even Balazovic…I’m not seeing it, at least not yet. Varland as a 5, maybe.

Therefore, I’d go after Maeda.

What do I think they’ll do? No clue, other than the QO to Gray.

[LA Vikes Fan]

3 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I like Gray a lot for results and leadership. And no question he gets the QO. If he takes it, the Twins are more than happy to pay it. But I think he gets a 3yr deal from someone else and the Twins won't want to pay him $20M annually for ages 34-36. 

But while I'm talking about both sides of my mouth, I'd bring Maeda back even though he's older. I believe in his smarts, control, and experience. I believe in his rebuilt arm. I believe in a real chance of more IP and less chance of injury than Gray. And I also believe 2yrs at around $14-15 per gets it done.

I'm OK with the Mahle idea. I'm not sure $5M to sit foe an entire season of rehab makes sense, but if it makes year two cheaper, I'm OK with the number. It was some smart maneuvering in regard  to Pineda and could be smart here as well. I don't think $5M and then another year of, oh, say $13M is any kind of financial burden.

But of the 3 options, I just think Maeda is the best move. And just like this year began, I want it to be tough to pick your best 5, while having a couple nice options at AAA.

I think DocBauer is right on. This is exactly what the FO should do. If this works, rotation in 2024 is Lopez, Ryan, Maeda, Ober, Paddack/Varland, with Mahle back in 2025 when or if one of those 6 is hurt or gone. Love it. 

[tony&rodney]

Gray gets a QO in order to nab a draft pick. Mahle - no way. Maeda presents an interesting choice, 2/$20M. The Twins will trade for a starter this winter. The cost may be steep but worth it.

[Mike Sixel]

Dobnak is your number five next year.... I'd bring back Maeda and QO Gray. If they can sign the tip arm next year, I would, but I think they're outbid.

I have no confidence anyone in the minors other than dobnak and Varland will be ready next year, and they're both number four, five, types.

[Fatbat]

Maeda 2 yr 25M with team option for 3rd yr.  Gray QO so we get a draft pick cause he wants out of here. Meh on Mahle. Horrible trade! Move on and get one more young arm rotation out of AAA. We got 4-5 guys to rotate into that 5th starter slot. 

[DocBauer]

7 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

Maeda 2 yr 25M with team option for 3rd yr.  Gray QO so we get a draft pick cause he wants out of here. Meh on Mahle. Horrible trade! Move on and get one more young arm rotation out of AAA. We got 4-5 guys to rotate into that 5th starter slot. 

I don't believe Gray is unhappy being a Twin. He's a tough competitor and is probably frustrated with his record, lack of support at times, and wants his team to win more. But he's also played on some bad teams in his career. Many times  he's been interviewed he's only been "down" on himself for having a bad game or a bad inning that frustrated him. The whole "I want to pitch deeper in games" from last year has been blown out of proportion by those who want to dislike Rocco. When given a chance to go longer at one point in 2022, and it didn't go well, Gray stated he appreciated the opportunity but it was up to him to perform better. And again, more than once this season, Gray has voiced frustration with his own performance, but never anything in regard to Rocco, his usage, or his teammates. But I DO think he declines the QO as someone will offer him 3yrs, or a 2+1 that will come to around $60M. Biggest payday of his career, having never been a FA before, and without actually looking up career earnings....being tired and lazy...I'd bet it comes close to his career earnings so far. 

I'm not sold on a future deal with Mahle. And the trade turned out bad. But I'm not as "meh" as you and some others are. And I don't believe the FO would re-sign him for some ego trip to "get something more out of a failed deal". But they aren't afraid to be creative in their thinking. NOT saying they should, or will, work out a deal for him. But Pineda was almost the exact same age when the Twins signed him for something around $2-3M for his rehab year. And while the suspension issue detracted from his time with the Twins, he more than made up his contract with some solid time with us. I just find Mahle, 28yo right now, as a similar, intriguing idea for 2024.

I think we're both on board for Maeda. Crazy to think he's older than Gray, but I actually trust his health, with a re-built elbow, more. He's a "craftsman" as a pitcher. And now that he's feeling strong and has his "feel" back, I'd almost rather watch him pitch than any other Twins starter. I'm not sure 2 at $25 does it, even with past surgery and age. I keep thinking 2 at $28M. But I do like your number better, LOL.

I want to enter 2024 the same way we entered 2023: at least 7 SP deep and figure out how they fit. (Varland was #7 to begin 2023).

LOPEZ

RYAN

OBER

MAEDA

PADDACK 

VARLAND

I still don't trust SWR, but he almost made me a believer coming off of 2022. He's still very young, has upside, and has been much better as of late. I still think Enlow has a shot to be good, even though he hasn't handled his AAA promotion well. But another offseason and continued development, who knows, he might make a jump. I sure hope so. Considering how far he's come, I'd rather trust Dobnak as a 5th starter than a general retread at this point. And while I love the potential of Festa, and he's generally looked GOOD, he's been pressed pretty hard and I'm not counting on him for at least a half season, if not a full one. Is Balazovic only a RP now? Or might he be stretched out if the pen is addressed?

And we don't know if Paddack will be ready day one, or a month in, or two months. That's why Maeda, IMO, is such a key.

RUMORS, had the Twins in on Edourdo Rodriguez from the Tigers on a 3 team deal with Gray being moved. Obviously nothing like that can happen now. And it would have been intriguing. Unfortunately, the bulk of high level prospects have had numerous injuries the past couple of years because...of course...Twins luck! And some might turn out to be quality BP pieces. And there is tremendous value in that!

But even with Maeda back, I wouldn't be surprised if the Twins tried a similar move for a LH arm. Maybe a Larnach and Severino plus another arm to someone like Seattle or Miami for a LH SP.

But I'm rambling, because it's what I do, LOL. Re-sign Maeda #1, then start to look at the rest of the roster.

[old nurse]

16 hours ago, Brandon said:

2024 Rotation:

Lopez

Ober

Ryan

Mead

Paddack

Varland

Dobnak

rehabbing Mahle 

whoever wants to be the 8th starter

where does Keuchel fit in all of this?

There are people who will head lots of Mead if that is the rotation. Might have to be home fermented