The Twins Shouldn't Trade Sonny Gray Out of Panic

[Lou Hennessy]

After making his third All Star roster in his 10-year career, Sonny Gray’s trade value is at its highest peak since becoming a Twin two off-seasons ago. Even so, trading him now would likely be a misguided, panicked idea as the team approaches the August 1st trade deadline.

Image courtesy of Stephen Brashear-USA TODAY Sports

Without question, the Twins’ win-loss record from the first half was a disappointment to fans, players, coaches and front office decision-makers alike. There’s very little to sugarcoat when the team carries a losing record into the All-Star break. But there’s one emotion that can be just as unpleasant as disappointment, and far more dangerous. 

Panic. 

Based on the common themes that are presented across various social-media spheres, frustration has a way of boiling over when expectations aren’t being met. That panic leads to reckless speculation, which leads to loud, bombastic ideas for how to improve the team. 

The latest concept to come out of this line of thinking is the idea that the Twins should trade their All Star starting pitcher, Sonny Gray, at this year’s trade deadline. 

While it’s smart for front offices to listen to offers on any and all players, a trade of this magnitude likely wouldn’t yield the return that many would expect, and it would send a problematic message about where expectations should be going forward. Oftentimes when a Gray trade is suggested, the return package isn’t even a consideration. The logic of the proposal revolves around the idea that this team isn’t good enough to make a deep run in the playoffs, so they should sell their best assets to the highest bidder. 

It’s a knee-jerk reaction to a decades-long championship drought, made by surly grumps who see little more to the game than box scores and win-loss records. They don’t like what they see, which is understandable given the struggles of the lineup, but they think changes are needed by any means necessary. But two issues arise from this proposal. First, they don’t fully understand Gray’s worth to the Twins. Second, they don’t fully understand his value to a team trying to acquire him, and how the price shifts around the qualifying offer. 

Gray has been about as good as anyone could’ve expected when he was acquired from the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for Chase Petty, the Twins’ first round draft pick in 2021. In just under 220 innings pitched for the Twins, he has a 3.00 ERA with a 24% strikeout rate and an 8.3% walk rate. That performance has been worth 5.2 fWAR since joining the Twins, and he’s taken his game to a new level this season (2.89 ERA, 11.4% swinging-strike rate across 18 starts).

He’s been carried by two traits that would be rather enticing to teams that are in buy-now mode as we creep toward the trade deadline; an ultra-effective slider that pairs magnificently with his modest fastball and the ability to limit damage. Opponents are hitting just .128 against Gray’s slider, which is best in MLB among qualified pitchers according to Inside Edge. Part of that offering’s effectiveness comes from his ability to pair it with his deceptive fastball that boasts an elite spin rate (96th percentile) despite modest velocity. In terms of limiting damage, look no further than Gray’s 77.5% left-on-base average and his .515 OPS allowed with runners in scoring position (fifth-best in MLB). That pitchability bodes well for teams as they consider a pitcher that turns 34 later this year. 

That should include the Twins. 

While this is Gray’s final year of club control before he reaches free agency, the club can extend him a qualifying offer at season’s end. That price will likely be around $20 million for a one-year contract, and if he declines it and signs elsewhere, the Twins would receive compensation in the form of picks in next year’s amateur draft. If he accepts that offer, the Twins get to return him atop a competitive rotation for 2024 at a reasonable price.

The value of the picks that would be awarded to the Twins if he signs elsewhere depends on how much Gray signs for with another team. If he signs a deal in excess of $50 million, then the Twins would receive a pick just after the first round of next year’s draft (likely in the 31-39 range). That outcome seems likely if Gray stays healthy and on his current trajectory. If he were to reject the qualifying offer and sign elsewhere for less than $50 million, the compensation pick for those teams would come after Competitive Balance Round B, which follows the second round (likely in the 65-70 range). 

So if the Twins don’t trade Gray, and he continues to pitch like he has since joining the club, they will likely get him signed for a one-year $20 million deal for 2024 based on the qualifying offer, or receive an extra top-75 pick in next year’s draft. As great as Gray has been, it’s hard to picture a team trading a prospect of this caliber for just two months of control of a pitcher that missed weeks of action with a hamstring issue just last year. 

Disappointment is understandable when looking at an underwhelming first half from the Twins. After years of losing baseball and the complete absence of playoff success since 2004, it’s easy to see why fans would be frustrated. Many lack faith that this roster can reach the playoffs in 2023, let alone make a deep run. The easy call in that scenario would be to sell high on expiring assets in an effort to re-fertilize the prospect corps. 

But the easy call isn’t always the smartest call. 

The Twins need to find a way to be competitive for the rest of this year and in 2024, and the best way to do that is to keep their strong rotation intact while trimming the fat from the lackluster lineup. Gray holds more value to the Twins by remaining in their rotation for a possible playoff run, then returning for one more year, or at least getting high-end draft picks in return if he signs elsewhere. Barring some mythical offer that is too good to pass up, trading him now would be a decision based on panic and nothing more. 

What do you think? Should the Twins consider trading Gray to the highest bidder? Or would they be better off building around him for another year? Let us know what you think in the comment section below. 

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[LastOnePicked]

Emotions run strong in all kinds of directions, and bad decisions can be made just as easily on hope as they can on "panic."

And I don't see much panic from Twins fans. I see justifiable and clear-eyed skepticism. Put this team in the AL East, and the playoffs are a pipe dream. A scenario where the Twins further thin their already-thin farm system through deadline trades, only to fall short in making the playoffs in the easiest division in baseball isn't some panicked, imagined scenario from "surly" longtime fans - it's the reliable recent trend. In fact, it's a very likely outcome for 2023.

But sure, keep swiping at the fans who are warning about icebergs on the horizon. I mean, what damage can a little ice do to a steel ship anyways, right?

[Cory Engelhardt]

6 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

Emotions run strong in all kinds of directions, and bad decisions can be made just as easily on hope as they can on "panic."

And I don't see much panic from Twins fans. I see justifiable and clear-eyed skepticism. Put this team in the AL East, and the playoffs are a pipe dream. A scenario where the Twins further thin their already-thin farm system through deadline trades, only to fall short in making the playoffs in the easiest division in baseball isn't some panicked, imagined scenario from "surly" longtime fans - it's the reliable recent trend. In fact, it's a very likely outcome for 2023.

But sure, keep swiping at the fans who are warning about icebergs on the horizon. I mean, what damage can a little ice do to a steel ship anyways, right?

The Phillies made the world series last year off an 87 win regular season. Heck, the Twins won the world series in 1987 off of 85 wins, a -20 run differential, and would have been 5th in the AL east that season (good thing they were in the West.)

You get into the playoffs, and you have good pitching, you have a chance. No reason to scoff otherwise. It's been true forever.

[madtowntwin]

Especially when said pitcher Sonny Gray could have a "Titanic Impact" in any Game #1 Playoff Scenario....Sorry - I just could not resits. 

[Fat Calvin]

It's not out of panic; It comes from the sober realization that this club is going nowhere and will never go anywhere under the current leadership.   Rocco is not a field manager.  There's no fire in his belly, no spit in his eye.  He inspires nobody.  And the guy at the top, Falvey, IMO, he's in way over his head.  You don't have to blow up the team and tear out the heart; We've got a lot of good players.  Just cut off the head and find new leadership.  There's a lot to work with here.

 

[USAFChief]

13 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

Put this team in the AL East, and the playoffs are a pipe dream. 

True, and meaningless.

They're not in the ALE. 

So they have a very solid chance of making the post season.

Not to mention meaningful games for the rest of the regular season, which is, to me at least, extremely valuable. 

[mikelink45]

It depends on how you view the FO - if they can sift through offers and find one that will actually benefit the team it is okay to trade him, but no more give aways.  He is a good pitcher, maybe not the Ace we call him.  Did the FO try to extend him like they quickly did for Lopez?  Do he and Baldelli click behind the short post game conflicts?

Test the marker - trade if it is really outstanding.  And if not ride it out for the season - this is our Ohtani conundrum. 

[tony&rodney]

What is the offer? I would take a top ten global prospect for Gray right now. The bar should be pretty high for the Twins to consider trading Sonny Gray.

[TwinsDr2021]

IMO, they should trade Gray or Maeda, the one that brings the most back in terms of minor league players. That is what a team in the Twins situation has to do to have continued success, roll over the roster. I believe they can afford to trade one of them with Festa, Varland, SWR available and to be honest they need at some point to figure out what they have with them. Also IMO I don't think they should sign Gray, I think adding another huge salary isn't in the cards for the Twins.

[JD-TWINS]

16 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

Emotions run strong in all kinds of directions, and bad decisions can be made just as easily on hope as they can on "panic."

And I don't see much panic from Twins fans. I see justifiable and clear-eyed skepticism. Put this team in the AL East, and the playoffs are a pipe dream. A scenario where the Twins further thin their already-thin farm system through deadline trades, only to fall short in making the playoffs in the easiest division in baseball isn't some panicked, imagined scenario from "surly" longtime fans - it's the reliable recent trend. In fact, it's a very likely outcome for 2023.

But sure, keep swiping at the fans who are warning about icebergs on the horizon. I mean, what damage can a little ice do to a steel ship anyways, right?

I don’t understand dismantling the league’s best overall starting staff prior to letting guys like Lewis heal - Polanco as well. Wallner gives us a potential new look if not only addition by subtraction (Gallo or Kepler).

Hope is an unknown with an upside…….panic is not good in any sense. Not trying to put down fans that are skeptical - but it seems not supporting decisions/a path until it comes to fruition is just………

Trading Gray is going to yield very little value. I think that’s real whether we are panicked or hopeful.

Can we get to 86 wins? Seriously - that’s 8 games over .500 and getting close to unattainable by the Guradians. If so, we host a first round series. With our starters & Thielbar/Stewart/Maeda displacing some of our questionable guys in the Pen, we have a shot at advancing!

We’re 2-10 v. Tampa, Baltimore, & Atlanta. Lost 2 in extra innings v. Orioles and a couple tough ones in the other 2 series. We aren’t in Tampa nor Atlanta’s league in the playoffs - granted. Probably able to compete with anyone else in the game though……don’t think that’s just based on hope.

 

 

[madtowntwin]

Put the Twins in the American League East in 1987 and how many games back would they have been?? Just askin'.....

[JD-TWINS]

5 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

IMO, they should trade Gray or Maeda, the one that brings the most back in terms of minor league players. That is what a team in the Twins situation has to do to have continued success, roll over the roster. I believe they can afford to trade one of them with Festa, Varland, SWR available and to be honest they need at some point to figure out what they have with them. Also IMO I don't think they should sign Gray, I think adding another huge salary isn't in the cards for the Twins.

The “let’s see what we have for the future” approach is for after you are eliminated from post season, IMO. AAA and Spring Training is for evaluating, not the Show in August when you are in first place in your Division - right?

We outta have a pretty fair idea of who Varland & SWR are by now!

Not a real big proponent of signing Gray v. some other potential FA arm in off-season……his salary must be approaching $15M now - we are paying Maeda $5-$7M - Mahle $12M…..generally good numbers. Not signing Mahle nor Maeda in ‘24 are nearly certainties…….this leaves $$$ for Gray within this year’s current budget.

We also trim Polanco - Gallo - Kepler at a minimum after ‘23, that’s $34M or in a close range saved from this year’s budget………spots filled with guys in our system.

Sign Gray for $23.5/year for 2 years and have $40M plus leftover from the existing budget. One way to go.

I make the offer to Gray now to see where his head’s at - the security he gains & confidence shown in him could propel him through the remainder of this year & forward!

[John Belinski]

I just do not understand why a trade of Gray would not bring the Twins a good hitter? He is a All Star pitcher and the Twins can not afford to sign him for next year.  The Twins need hitters and some team will want to add a good pitcher for their playoff run.

[gman]

Right now the wildcards that the Twins could GET to face in the playoffs are Baltimore(we know what happens there), Houston, or Toronto. I'm pretty sure those teams aren't shivering. So shop Gray and any veteran  they think they can get something of value for. Gray could make 14 more starts for the Twins and under best of circumstances 1 playoff game. The Twins odds of making or not making the playoffs don't change much with trade the usual group of suspects. They might improve with some rookies coming in to play hard.

[jmlease1]

4 minutes ago, John Belinski said:

I just do not understand why a trade of Gray would not bring the Twins a good hitter? He is a All Star pitcher and the Twins can not afford to sign him for next year.  The Twins need hitters and some team will want to add a good pitcher for their playoff run.

Because the teams that might be trading for him are going for it this year. they're not going to give back anyone who is a significant MLB contributor. Dealing Gray nets you prospects. They might be very good prospects (YMMV on whether his injury history or poor stint with a contending NY team would reduce his perceived value on top of the fact that he's a two month rental; I don't think it matters nearly as much as his current performance, which has been all-star quality) but they're going to be prospects, not MLB players.

[Lou Hennessy]

1 hour ago, LastOnePicked said:

Emotions run strong in all kinds of directions, and bad decisions can be made just as easily on hope as they can on "panic."

And I don't see much panic from Twins fans. I see justifiable and clear-eyed skepticism. Put this team in the AL East, and the playoffs are a pipe dream. A scenario where the Twins further thin their already-thin farm system through deadline trades, only to fall short in making the playoffs in the easiest division in baseball isn't some panicked, imagined scenario from "surly" longtime fans - it's the reliable recent trend. In fact, it's a very likely outcome for 2023.

But sure, keep swiping at the fans who are warning about icebergs on the horizon. I mean, what damage can a little ice do to a steel ship anyways, right?

I'm sorry you feel like I'm swinging at you, LastOnePicked. I definitely skew on the optimistic side, but I understand that's not for everyone.

 

I hope you have fun with your clear-eyed skepticism and thank you for your service in keeping a watchful-eye for icebergs.

[weitz41]

Interesting. A should followed by a shouldn't article.

13 games to play before the trade deadline.

Assuming the Twins play around .500 ball and another ALC team doesn't go on a 10-game winning streak. IMO there are too many good reasons to keep Gray on the team and way too many negatives to trade him away.

 

[chpettit19]

27 minutes ago, gman said:

Right now the wildcards that the Twins could GET to face in the playoffs are Baltimore(we know what happens there), Houston, or Toronto. I'm pretty sure those teams aren't shivering. So shop Gray and any veteran  they think they can get something of value for. Gray could make 14 more starts for the Twins and under best of circumstances 1 playoff game. The Twins odds of making or not making the playoffs don't change much with trade the usual group of suspects. They might improve with some rookies coming in to play hard.

The Twins went 2-4 against Baltimore this year. Including winning the first series 2-1. Which, in the wild card round, means winning the series and advancing. Went 3-3 against Toronto. 4-2 against Houston. Would I put a whole bunch of money on the Twins? No. But the Twins were .500 against those 3 squads so I'm not sure why the Twins would be shivering at those names either.

[JD-TWINS]

Do we sign Gray?

 

2024 - 26 man:

Julien & Farmer at 2B

CC & Farmer at SS

Lewis & Farmer at 3B

Kirilloff & Solano at 1B

Wallner - Castro - Taylor - FA signing - guy from system (Martin/Rodriguez?) or trade piece?…….OF needs to upgrade!!!

Vazquez & Jeffers at C

Buxton/Solano - DH

Dropping salary from Gray - Mahle - Maeda - Gallo - Kepler - Polanco………$65 MILLION  from existing budget that will be freed up……use $ on OF guy and a depth starter and MAYBE a depth reliever. Am seeing this year that relief CAN be built off others scrap pile & with internal system options.

More youth v. keeping Solano? Is Taylor blocking someone? I like vets that have done it & aren’t expensive………these guys could be signed for this year’s number plus $2.5M …. $10M total. Not too costly to DFA either!

Is this COMPETITIVE??

Julien/Kirilloff/Lewis all ready April 1 & security in their positions.

Paddack - Ryan - Ober - Lopez - Varland (Gray? or an inexpensive Maeda or a FA at $15-$18M)

Headrick - Stewart - Ortega - Balazovic - Moran - Jax - Duran (Thielbar is probably done)……..some add from system or a FA at $8M or less. Can’t imagine Lopez or Pagan remain.

Extend Ryan & Duran & consider Ober……may need 3 months of ‘24 on Ober prior to offer.

 

[Squirrel]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

Not to mention meaningful games for the rest of the regular season, which is, to me at least, extremely valuable. 

Not just valuable, but the whole point - to get to the post-season. That doesn’t happen without Gray, imo.

(And before anyone misconstrues my words for ‘just happy to make the playoffs’ that is NOT what I just said, it’s not what anyone is saying, so don’t go there.)

[TwinsDr2021]

43 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

The “let’s see what we have for the future” approach is for after you are eliminated from post season, IMO. AAA and Spring Training is for evaluating, not the Show in August when you are in first place in your Division - right?

We outta have a pretty fair idea of who Varland & SWR are by now!

Not a real big proponent of signing Gray v. some other potential FA arm in off-season……his salary must be approaching $15M now - we are paying Maeda $5-$7M - Mahle $12M…..generally good numbers. Not signing Mahle nor Maeda in ‘24 are nearly certainties…….this leaves $$$ for Gray within this year’s current budget.

We also trim Polanco - Gallo - Kepler at a minimum after ‘23, that’s $34M or in a close range saved from this year’s budget………spots filled with guys in our system.

Sign Gray for $23.5/year for 2 years and have $40M plus leftover from the existing budget. One way to go.

I make the offer to Gray now to see where his head’s at - the security he gains & confidence shown in him could propel him through the remainder of this year & forward!

For 24, The Twins have Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddock, and the pipeline (SWR, Varland, Festa, Raya etc..) there is no reason to continue to pump money into the starting staff I thought this FO was supposed to produce a pipleline.

IMO Gray is vastly overrated he has a ERA of 4.14 since Mid May, which is pretty good but not great, it would be better if he was averaging 6+ innings per start but he isn't.

They can/should trade Gray or Maeda to get prospects back but that doesn't mean they also shouldn't try to improve the team in other areas.

“let’s see what we have for the future” , they do have to figure out what they have (with certain guys) this year or they go into next year with a bunch of unknown older prospects, you know like they did this year.

 

[GNess]

Many cogent arguments here for keeping Gray. I agree with almost all of them. One point - the argument for trading Gray is basically, "The current Twins aren't good enough to beat the "good" teams in the playoffs." I disagree with that premise, but how does trading Gray for likely less than they can get from a QO make the Twins more likely to be able to beat the "good" teams in the future?

 

[TwinsDr2021]

15 minutes ago, GNess said:

 the argument for trading Gray is basically, "The current Twins aren't good enough to beat the "good" teams in the playoffs."

 

That absolutely isn't the only argument, the other is to have an eye on this year (Trade for a relief pitcher and maybe a hitter) and the future. Letting him and Maeda go for a pick that is probably 4 or more years away doesn't nothing for the 24 rotation. Next year it would be Lopez, Ryan, Ober and Paddock coming back from injury and who?  So they have to go out and trade for another starter (probably at a higher cost than the pick they get from Gray) or they have to go out and spend more money, or go back to going into another season with questions marks at 2 starting pitchers and maybe another Ober injury.

Next year SWR will be 23, Festa 24, Varland 26, can you continue to have these type of players on the 40 man without figuring out what they have?

 

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Lou Hennessy said:

I'm sorry you feel like I'm swinging at you, LastOnePicked. I definitely skew on the optimistic side, but I understand that's not for everyone.

[Nashvilletwin]

41 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

For 24, The Twins have Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddock, and the pipeline (SWR, Varland, Festa, Raya etc..) there is no reason to continue to pump money into the starting staff I thought this FO was supposed to produce a pipleline.

IMO Gray is vastly overrated he has a ERA of 4.14 since Mid May, which is pretty good but not great, it would be better if he was averaging 6+ innings per start but he isn't.

They can/should trade Gray or Maeda to get prospects back but that doesn't mean they also shouldn't try to improve the team in other areas.

“let’s see what we have for the future” , they do have to figure out what they have (with certain guys) this year or they go into next year with a bunch of unknown older prospects, you know like they did this year.

 

Lot of truth in this. Personally, I have the under on his 2nd half performance vs. his first. Do the Twins ever sell high?  It’s really not their MO (other than Arraez). 

Regardless, the Twins are in it to make the playoffs where, yes, anything can happen. Besides, if Falvey, Rocco and Co. truly need a playoff win to keep their jobs, there is no chance they move Gray. The incentives for what is best for the future of the organization and what’s best for current mgmt are not 100% aligned. Gray stays.

They will/should only trade Gray if they receive a blow away offer - i.e. a legitimate projectable starting position player (preferably a right handed CFer if we are getting super specific) for at worst a late ‘24 arrival. But that’s not going to happen.  

[chpettit19]

20 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

That absolutely isn't the only argument, the other is to have an eye on this year (Trade for a relief pitcher and maybe a hitter) and the future. Letting him and Maeda go for a pick that is probably 4 or more years away doesn't nothing for the 24 rotation. Next year it would be Lopez, Ryan, Ober and Paddock coming back from injury and who?  So they have to go out and trade for another starter (probably at a higher cost than the pick they get from Gray) or they have to go out and spend more money, or go back to going into another season with questions marks at 2 starting pitchers and maybe another Ober injury.

Next year SWR will be 23, Festa 24, Varland 26, can you continue to have these type of players on the 40 man without figuring out what they have?

 

They should have a ton of money to spend this offseason. Pooling Maeda and Sonny's contracts together should be able to get them a Sonny level pitcher on the market. SWR, Festa, and Varland is a pretty nice start to your depth beyond Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddock, and FA X. I'd be absolutely shocked if Sonny or Maeda could bring back an arm that wouldn't be a question mark in the '24 rotation so I'm not sure what the argument is here. You can't fill that hole with the Sonny Gray trade so I don't see what it really has to do with whether or not you trade Sonny Gray. And a Comp A pick is basically the exact value it took to get 2 years of Sonny so it's pretty equal to be able to trade for a Sonny replacement with the value they get from the pick they get for Gray.

[TwinsHater1991]

To trade Gray doesnt make sense since we signed Correa, I'm pretty sure Twins would have to find a way to improve their lineup yes but trading Gray would be a mistake since I feel like Twins just need to keep their pitchers rolling and hope the hitters turn it around. It's not like we can't do anything: we can.

To throw in the towel this early would be stupid and would tell Correa and Buxton that Twins aren't going to be competitive at all. Just go for a right handed bat in the likes of Goldy or someone like Lane Thomas, Jemier Canderliano, etc etc, then we'd be good to go from there.

[TwinsHater1991]

Take advantage of the weak central and go all in now

[nicksaviking]

I'm not advocating for trading Gray, mostly because I don't think he'd get nearly the return we'd like, but doing so would be the opposite of Panic. This article has it completely backwards.

The bold and aggressive move would be to pivot to the younger guys and sell off expiring contracts. Panicking would be staying the course hoping the vet bats turn things around and save everyone's jobs.

[laloesch]

2 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

IMO, they should trade Gray or Maeda, the one that brings the most back in terms of minor league players. That is what a team in the Twins situation has to do to have continued success, roll over the roster. I believe they can afford to trade one of them with Festa, Varland, SWR available and to be honest they need at some point to figure out what they have with them. Also IMO I don't think they should sign Gray, I think adding another huge salary isn't in the cards for the Twins.

I don't understand the fascination with SWR.  The guy has horrible minor league stats and has shown no sign yet of turning the corner and being major league starter material.  Varland and Festa yes i agree.