Royce Lewis' Latest Injury Follows a Disappointing Trend for Top Twins Prospects

[Cody Christie]

The Twins announced that Royce Lewis would miss at least six weeks with his latest injury. Unfortunately, he is following a disappointing trend with the Twins' top prospects.

Image courtesy of Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

There are high expectations for any player taken with the first overall pick. When the Twins selected Royce Lewis in 2017, he immediately rose into the conversation as one of baseball's top prospects and has stayed there throughout his time in the minors. Lewis has shown flashes of being a five-tool talent throughout his professional career, but injuries marred the start of his Twins tenure. Like other top prospects before him, injuries are preventing Lewis from reaching his full potential. Here's a look back at the last five Twins Daily top prospects and how injuries have impacted their careers. 

Austin Martin, SS/OF
TD Top Prospect: 2022
Martin was the top prospect received from the Blue Jays in the Jose Berrios trade. Many evaluators viewed him as the best college bat in his draft class, and Toronto drafted him with a top-five pick. Martin struggled last year at Double-A by hitting .241/.368/.317 (.685) with 14 doubles, three triples, and two home runs in 92 games. Minnesota sent him to the AFL, and he posted a .936 OPS, which pointed to a potential turnaround in 2023. Martin entered spring training with a chance to impress the organization, but his elbow started bothering him, and the team shut him down. He was diagnosed with a UCL sprain, an injury that often leads to Tommy John surgery. 

Minnesota's medical staff decided to have him rehab to try and avoid surgery. He started rehabbing in early June but left his sixth start after colliding with another player in the outfield. Martin restarted his rehab in the last week, and the Twins promoted him to St. Paul. There is still a chance that he will need Tommy John surgery, but there is also an opportunity for him to help the Twins this season. 

Alex Kirilloff, OF/1B
TD Top Prospect: 2021
Kirilloff was a hitting savant by hitting .322/.380/.520 (.900) in his minor league career. He missed the entire 2017 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He returned strongly and debuted with the Twins in the 2020 playoffs against the Astros. Wrist issues have haunted him throughout his big-league career, culminating in a unique wrist surgery last winter where he had an osteotomy procedure to shorten the ulna bone. The team delayed the start of his 2023 season while he worked his way back from this unique procedure. There have been some positive signs since he returned, with his walk rate increasing and flashes of power. In 52 games with the Twins, he has hit .277/.378/.403 (.781). Fans hoped Kirilloff would be a staple in the middle of the Twins' line-up by this point in his career, but there have been multiple bumps in the road. 

Royce Lewis, SS/3B
TD Top Prospect: 2020, 2019, 2018
Lewis is one of the best prospects to come through the Twins organization since Byron Buxton, which makes his injury history even more frustrating for fans. His last two seasons have been cut short due to ACL surgery, and now he will miss around six weeks with a Grade 2 oblique strain. Lewis returned from his second ACL surgery in late May, providing a unique skill set to the Twins' line-up. In 26 games, he slashed .326/.354/.478 (.832) with four home runs. Last year, he provided similar production when he returned from his first ACL surgery. Lewis has a tremendously high ceiling, but injuries have stopped him from impacting the club long-term. 

Fernando Romero, RHP
TD Top Prospect: 2017
Twins Daily made an aggressive selection at the top of the prospect rankings in 2017 because it looked like Romero had the skills to be a frontline starter. Tommy John surgery impacted his early professional career, and he missed the entire 2015 season. However, he returned strongly and posted a sub-2.00 ERA across 16 starts in 2016. He received national attention with Baseball Prospectus, and MLB Pipeline included him in their top-100 prospect rankings entering the 2018 season. His path to the big leagues ran into some struggles in the upper minors. He played parts of two seasons with the Twins but posted a 5.17 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP. In 2021 and 2022, he played in Japan before appearing in the Angels organization this season. There were high hopes that Romero could join Jose Berrios at the top of the Twins' rotation, but that dream never became a reality. 

Byron Buxton, OF/DH
TD Top Prospect: 2016
A novel could be written about how injuries have impacted Buxton throughout his career. However, there have been flashes of brilliance when the Twins find a way to keep him on the field. There has only been one season where he played over 100 games, so the Twins decided on a new approach for the 2023 campaign. His knee continues to be an issue, so the club moved him to a full-time DH role. A healthy version of Buxton is one of baseball's top players with his five-tool talent on both sides of the ball. Earlier this season, I argued that Buxton didn't live up to his prospect hype. However, only some players considered baseball's best prospects can become perennial MVP candidates. Injuries will define Buxton's career, and fans are left wondering what might have been.

The names listed above are recent examples of top prospects struggling with injuries. Going further back, players like Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Francisco Liriano and Jason Kubel were prospects that suffered injuries in the early part of their careers that didn't give them a clear runway at the big-league level. It's an unfortunate trend and one the team can hope to avoid with the next generation of top prospects. 

What are your impressions of this disappointing trend for the Twins' top prospects? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[HokieRif]

*sigh*
 

are we just unlucky? Or do we have enough circumstantial evidence with our medical and training staff to indicate there is a systemic problem?  Just like we have with our hitting struggles and Popkins, there just seems to be an overwhelming amount of data that should statistically rule all these injuries and DL stints as coincidence. 

[TwinsDr2021]

I would add I believe Sano was the #2 prospect when he had TJ surgery.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

As frustrating as it is to see highly touted guys go down with injuries, I wonder about context here...   

Are the Twins rate and substance of prospect injuries any different than that of other organizations?  Are the Twins truly unlucky here, or does it just feel that way because of the higher visibility and attention we give to the Twins minor league system versus other teams.  Is this just the cost of doing business?

[Road trip]

I'd add Balazovic's knee injury, which pretty much derailed him last season.  He dropped from the Twin's top pitching prospect to a maybe prospect.

It's not just the prospects either.  The major league squad suffers from an alarming injury rate.  I'm not saying the players aren't just as tough today as they were a generation or two ago, but I do wonder if something has changed with their training which has led to more muscular explosiveness, but less overall health.

[weitz41]

I've seen people compare today's players to racehorses compared to yester years' work horse players. Maybe there is some truth to that. All players seem to be more injury prone now Imo. Maybe its players are more muscle bound now than in the past. Guys playing 150 games in a season is rarer than a complete game nowadays...

As for Lewis I struggle with calling him injury prone. A slip on ice in Texas, playing out of position to keep him in the line-up and an oblique injury feels like bad luck to me.

Jazz Chisom and Jose Altuve went on the IL in the last week for the same issue. There are probably others.

Kirilloff. Cronic wrist issue and TJ. The wrist seems fine now (not that that can't change) and TJ on a position player is rarely a long-term issue.

Buxton. yeah, injury prone.

Martin. Looking more and more injury prone.

The injury bug seems league wide and likely a combination of bad luck, physical strength of players now and training staff.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

The trend I see is all of them were named TD Top Prospects. Maybe it’s the curse of Twins Daily?

[TwinsDr2021]

59 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

We should have our prospects drink whatever Atlanta gives their prospects.  Seems like their's are healthy and get to the majors much quicker than ours.

Maybe these guys are wound too tight (i.e. to lean and muscular).  I don't recall Hrbek ever getting oblique pulls🤔

Acuna and Albies have injuries  in the last couple of years.

[HokieRif]

1 hour ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

We should have our prospects drink whatever Atlanta gives their prospects.  Seems like their's are healthy and get to the majors much quicker than ours.

Maybe these guys are wound too tight (i.e. to lean and muscular).  I don't recall Hrbek ever getting oblique pulls🤔

Chick-Fil-A for pre-game meals, and washed down with a Sunjoy.

[Doctor Gast]

We want players go all out like Buxton & Lewis, but many times there are consequences that comes along with that which are injuries. Lewis is a spark plug he goes 100+% before he's less than 100% physically. IMO training & coaching have played a part in that also.

[mikelink45]

Major League baseball is having this issue. We want maximum speed on their fastballs, maximum swing, and somehow the body just can't handle the load. Notice it. Mike trout is now out again.

That doesn't mean the twins. I'm suffering more than the majority, what baseball does its best when they have the best players out on the field?  

 

 

 

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

We should have our prospects drink whatever Atlanta gives their prospects.  Seems like their's are healthy and get to the majors much quicker than ours.

Maybe these guys are wound too tight (i.e. to lean and muscular).  I don't recall Hrbek ever getting oblique pulls🤔

That's pretty new though. Atlanta went about a decade and a half where all of their top prospects were stud pitchers and all of them flamed out, mostly due to injuries.

 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

2 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

 I don't recall Hrbek ever getting oblique pulls🤔

I am not sure Hrbek had oblique muscles... I think everything kind of mushed together.

[Minny505]

5 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I would add I believe Sano was the #2 prospect when he had TJ surgery.

And then a titanium rod installed in his leg.

[Minny505]

The shocking part of the Twins history is that the hitters have had their careers derailed by injury at the rate generally reserved for pitchers. 

I think Cuddyer might be the last BA Top 50 hitting prospect that stayed relatively injury free. That ranking was in 1999 😲

[MABB1959]

Berrios has stayed injury free.   I believe that they do not do enough to strengthen their core.  I mean an oblique injury just from running?  Maybe it happened in the swing but they need to be in top physical shape.  Not only during the season but in the offseason as well. Berrios has an offseason trading program that seems to be working.  

[HokieRif]

47 minutes ago, Minny505 said:

The shocking part of the Twins history is that the hitters have had their careers derailed by injury at the rate generally reserved for pitchers. 

I think Cuddyer might be the last BA Top 50 hitting prospect that stayed relatively injury free. That ranking was in 1999 😲

Morneau was doing fine until he got the concussion in 2010

[Minny505]

2 minutes ago, HokieRif said:

Morneau was doing fine until he got the concussion in 2010

Would you say that derailed his career?

[HokieRif]

17 minutes ago, Minny505 said:

Would you say that derailed his career?

Not career ending, but he never regained his form while still in Minnesota.... although his worst offensive years would probably be leading this year's team in all the good statistical categories.

[Minny505]

1 hour ago, HokieRif said:

Not career ending, but he never regained his form while still in Minnesota.... although his worst offensive years would probably be leading this year's team in all the good statistical categories.

He never regained his form. He had one more season where he was a league average 1B hitter.

Considering he was the best hitter in MLB when he got that concussion, I'd say it derailed his career. 

[David HK]

11 hours ago, Road trip said:

I'd add Balazovic's knee injury, which pretty much derailed him last season.  He dropped from the Twin's top pitching prospect to a maybe prospect.

It's not just the prospects either.  The major league squad suffers from an alarming injury rate.  I'm not saying the players aren't just as tough today as they were a generation or two ago, but I do wonder if something has changed with their training which has led to more muscular explosiveness, but less overall health.

And his more recent jawboning injury....  

[Eris]

An additional factor may also be that players are focusing on a single sport much earlier in their lives. This increases risks for repetitive stress/ overuse injuries. In NJ where I live, it’s very difficult to play high school baseball without playing club baseball. 
 

There was an interview a number of years back with Tom Glavine where he mentioned that he did not learn how to throw a curveball until after he was drafted. Now pre-high school students are throwing curveballs. 
 

Alex Kirilloff was an outstanding HS pitcher. It is very likely that pitching in HS contributed to his needing TJ  surgery. 

[Squirrel]

16 hours ago, Minny505 said:

Would you say that derailed his career?

Yes

[Nine of twelve]

16 hours ago, Minny505 said:

Would you say that derailed his career?

Yes, but not completely. He won the NL batting championship in 2014. In 2010 he played 81 games with an OPS of 1.055. That's not merely good, that's rarefied air. In 2011 he played 69 games with an OPS of .619. The concussion robbed him of four years of the prime of his career as an elite hitter.

[Blyleven2011]

Atlanta's pitchers also have had time on the IL  , some long , some short ....

Injuries  ;

My impression  is depression  ...