Has Minnesota's Veteran Core Met Their Prospect Expectations?

3 hours ago, Karbo said:

Buxton needs to play in the field for 2 reasons. 1- To get the full value. He isn't hitting well enough which leads to 2- It is obvious to me that DH isn't working for him. He needs to play defense to fell better about himself rather than sitting on the bench thinking about how badly he is doing at the plate. The most injuries he's had recently have been at the plate or on the basepaths, not in the field. If he has sore knees either rest him, or DH on occasion, or IL him. Right now he is taking a roster spot that could be used by others.

Kepler needs to be DFA'd or traded. It seems that what we see is who he is. Again that's dead weight on the roster.

Polo needs to get healthy. When he is he is a game changer. Relianle bat and over his career has been a proven run producer and clutch hitter.

Plenty of value from Buxton just hitting.  If he was playing CF his value would be a LOT more than we're paying him.

The prospects we need to be concerned with are Kiriloff & Larnach.  Short, early answer is no.  Hope that changes.  HOPE is not a strategy.

21 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

Plenty of value from Buxton just hitting.  If he was playing CF his value would be a LOT more than we're paying him.

 

Buxton was good the 1st 5 weeks of the season.  Since 5/5 his wRC+ is 41.  Willi Castro is 108.  I am not inclined to say we are getting "plenty of value from Buxton just hitting".  He is a black hole in the lineup the past 6 weeks.

Polanco has been fine, although he has been pretty crippled the last few years. Kepler and Buxton have each had one good year and a host of glimpses of their talent. Sano? Too bad.

I feel bad for Buxton. The team IMO has tried to prevent him from injuries more than any other team would.   Just DHing has not done the trick at all.  So hard to watch this season.  I wonder if they have tried a sports psychologist?   He can’t hit, when he does he isn’t allowed to use his speed and can’t slide. I think for his own good he should be allowed to play CF and run and steal.  I am getting an eerie feeling he is pretty much done.  This is actually way worse than what we experienced with Mauer,.  

WAR / 162 games played:

BB 5.3

JP 3.3

MK 3.1

Sano 1.7

Interesting

1 hour ago, MABB1959 said:

This is actually way worse than what we experienced with Mauer,.  

Mauer was severely diminished due to the concussions yet still played a good first base and could hit. Mauer no longer was the catcher or extra base threat yet he never fell to automatic out DH only status. I feel real bad for whatever Buck is going through right now. I haven't lost all hope that his career is over but I also have no idea what is going on with him. It seems like an IL to regain some strength is needed, but without any first hand knowledge it is only a guess that Byron is even injured or unhealthy in any way, shape, or form.

10 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Buxton was good the 1st 5 weeks of the season.  Since 5/5 his wRC+ is 41.  Willi Castro is 108.  I am not inclined to say we are getting "plenty of value from Buxton just hitting".  He is a black hole in the lineup the past 6 weeks.

He's a streaky hitter and most likely will hit a hot streak again.  This team would be 3-5 games under .500 without him.

13 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Mauer was severely diminished due to the concussions yet still played a good first base and could hit. Mauer no longer was the catcher or extra base threat yet he never fell to automatic out DH only status. I feel real bad for whatever Buck is going through right now. I haven't lost all hope that his career is over but I also have no idea what is going on with him. It seems like an IL to regain some strength is needed, but without any first hand knowledge it is only a guess that Byron is even injured or unhealthy in any way, shape, or form.

I don't  know the reason (s) for Buxton's recent drought at the plate either, but as you suggested he needs to either go on the IL or snap out of this slump ASAP. What he is offering to the team now is detrimental to winning games. 

7 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

He's a streaky hitter and most likely will hit a hot streak again.  This team would be 3-5 games under .500 without him.

 

If we use your mid point of 4 wins he would produce 9 wins for the season should he repeat his production to this point for the rest of the season.  His wRC+ is 101 so he has been an average offensive player with no defensive value.  Do you think we could produce league average offense or better out of the DH spot between Wallner / Julien or Larnach or a combination of those three and others?   The way I see it he has had virtually no value this season.  His .5 WAR also suggests he has produced very meager value this year.

20 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

If we use your mid point of 4 wins he would produce 9 wins for the season should he repeat his production to this point for the rest of the season.  His wRC+ is 101 so he has been an average offensive player with no defensive value.  Do you think we could produce league average offense or better out of the DH spot between Wallner / Julien or Larnach or a combination of those three and others?   The way I see it he has had virtually no value this season.  His .5 WAR also suggests he has produced very meager value this year.

Seems highly unlikely we will be able to change what has already happened.  Seems highly possible that we can achieve different results going forward.  The history of the game is literally littered with such.

I drafted Buxton for my fantasy baseball team.  We play 4 outfielders and 4 DH's.  Right now I can't start him ahead of Luis Robert, Seiya Suzuki, Alex Kirilloff, Eloy Jimenez as OF, and Zeke Duran (whose playing quite well for the Rangers), Gerardo Perdomo-who, even though he's a switch hitter has to let Nick Amed Start 2 games a week against RH pitchers, Adam Duval-just back from injury, and Jaren Duran of the Red Sox who now has to squeeze in playing time with Duval, Verdugo and Yoshido.  I just picked up Mickey Moniak who's in the same situation with Trout, Taylor and Hunter Renfroe for the Angels for playing time.  Buxton just can't beat out any of these 9 guys the way he's playing now.  I'm of the opinion that they should just put Byron on the IL and give him time to get to some definition of healthy.  He is less than half the player he could be as an exclusive DH.  But with this horrible slump he's terrible.  If he's not healthy enough to play the field and he can't steal bases his health is also affecting his hitting.  He's not really healthy enough to play right now. 

20 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Plenty of value from Buxton just hitting.  If he was playing CF his value would be a LOT more than we're paying him.

 

Nice article.  Polanco has done a great job fir the Twins until this recent series of injuries.  Buxton and Kepler have become automatic outs.  Not sure if putting Buxton out in center field will help his offense.  But I must admit it couldn't hurt.  He is just awful at the plate.  Everyone talks about hiw great if an athlete he is and how lucky twins are to have him.  Unfortunately we very seldom get to see him play to find out.  8 seasons from a supposed superstar that spends more time on the IL than on the field.  And if he is too hurt to put him in centerfield then he needs to go back on the IL because he is hurting this team and has for quite some time.  I've always liked Kepler but it's obvious he needs to go.  Both Wallner and Larnach are better.

6 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Seems highly unlikely we will be able to change what has already happened.  Seems highly possible that we can achieve different results going forward.  The history of the game is literally littered with such.

 

No doubt we can't change what has happened.  I also agree there is a good chance of different results going forward.  However, I responding to your post that suggested "This team would be 3-5 games under .500 without him."  That's where we disagree.  I think Julien or Wallner would have produced at least as well if not better.

14 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Nice article.  Polanco has done a great job fir the Twins until this recent series of injuries.  Buxton and Kepler have become automatic outs.  Not sure if putting Buxton out in center field will help his offense.  But I must admit it couldn't hurt.  He is just awful at the plate.  Everyone talks about hiw great if an athlete he is and how lucky twins are to have him.  Unfortunately we very seldom get to see him play to find out.  8 seasons from a supposed superstar that spends more time on the IL than on the field.  And if he is too hurt to put him in centerfield then he needs to go back on the IL because he is hurting this team and has for quite some time.  I've always liked Kepler but it's obvious he needs to go.  Both Wallner and Larnach are better.

And yet the fact that both are in St. Paul would seem to suggest that somebody feels differently.

On 6/18/2023 at 12:26 PM, Major League Ready said:

Buxton was good the 1st 5 weeks of the season.  Since 5/5 his wRC+ is 41.  Willi Castro is 108.  I am not inclined to say we are getting "plenty of value from Buxton just hitting".  He is a black hole in the lineup the past 6 weeks.

How would one go about distinguishing a black hole from the rest of this lineup?

10 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

No doubt we can't change what has happened.  I also agree there is a good chance of different results going forward.  However, I responding to your post that suggested "This team would be 3-5 games under .500 without him."  That's where we disagree.  I think Julien or Wallner would have produced at least as well if not better.

Obviously someone sees things differently.

7 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Obviously someone sees things differently.

 

The FO view was that Buxton would produce as well or better than their other options at DH.  That was a reasonable position when they made it, especially if the goal was to ease him back into a CF role.  What is not a reasonable IMO is to look at what has actually happened and conclude the team is 3-5 games better off because of Buxton which is where this started.   That's my only point and you want to make this about something else.  I assume this is because you don't want to try to make the case that using the mid-point of your calculation would produce 9 WAR from a DH hitting exactly league average.   Do you think it's reasonable to suggest that if Buxton's performance remains the same he will have been worth 9 WAR?  Of course, the 9 WAR assumes a replacement level player took his place.  

11 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

The FO view was that Buxton would produce as well or better than their other options at DH.  That was a reasonable position when they made it, especially if the goal was to ease him back into a CF role.  What is not a reasonable IMO is to look at what has actually happened and conclude the team is 3-5 games better off because of Buxton which is where this started.   That's my only point and you want to make this about something else.  I assume this is because you don't want to try to make the case that using the mid-point of your calculation would produce 9 WAR from a DH hitting exactly league average.   Do you think it's reasonable to suggest that if Buxton's performance remains the same he will have been worth 9 WAR?  Of course, the 9 WAR assumes a replacement level player took his place.  

WAR, like most analytics, is a made up number that is what it is because someone says it is. 

3 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

WAR, like most analytics, is a made up number that is what it is because someone says it is. 

3 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

WAR, like most analytics, is a made up number that is what it is because someone says it is. 

It's not the perfect stat but you just can't admit that the premise Buxton will make a 9 win difference playing as he has is absolutely absurd!  

9 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

 

It's not the perfect stat but you just can't admit that the premise Buxton will make a 9 win difference playing as he has is absolutely absurd!  

It's an argument that can't be proven either way.

16 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

It's an argument that can't be proven either way.

Are you saying that it can't be proven that Buxton won't add 9 wins if he continues to play the same way?

5 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Are you saying that it can't be proven that Buxton won't add 9 wins if he continues to play the same way?

Not sure where you think I said anything about him continuing to play the same way.