Has Minnesota's Veteran Core Met Their Prospect Expectations?

[Cody Christie]

Fans can have unreasonable expectations for highly-touted prospects after they reach the big-league level. Let's look at three veteran Twins players and how their professional careers have transpired.

Image courtesy of Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

Baseball is a challenging game, and only some players can reach their highest level and succeed consistently. Three veteran Twins players were signed as teenagers and developed in the organization. Each player has accumulated over nine seasons in a Twins uniform, but have they met their expectations from their days as a prospect?

Byron Buxton
Career Stats (9 Seasons): .242/.303/.470 (.773), 108 OPS+, 21.1 WAR, 1 All-Star Appearance 
Prospect Hype: Over the last decade, few prospects reached the major leagues with the amount of hype that surrounded Buxton. He was the second overall pick in the 2012 MLB Draft, but many evaluators ranked him as the top available player. Buxton's potential five-tool talent was unmatched in the minors, and it looked like he was on pace to be a superstar. Entering the 2014 season, all three national prospect rankings had him as the number one or two prospect on their top 100 lists. He'd stay at the top of those lists for three consecutive seasons while hitting .301/.376/.507 (.884) in the minors.  

MLB Career: Few players can live up to the hype that surrounded Buxton. There have been flashes of the five-tool player that he was in the minors, but injuries have severely hampered his big-league career. In his early career, Minnesota's coaches encouraged Buxton to use his speed as a weapon to try and beat out base hits. Thankfully, Buxton changed course later in his career to focus on hitting for power. He was an All-Star for the first time in 2022 after a solid first half. Moving forward, there are questions about whether Buxton will play defensively in center field. He's accumulated the highest WAR total among these three players, and his extension means he will be with the Twins for the majority of his career. Some fans will be disappointed in Buxton's overall outcome, but he continues to provide tremendous value when he is healthy. 
Met Expectations: No, but few players can live up to being ranked as baseball's top prospect.

Max Kepler
Career Stats (9 Seasons): .230/.315/.424 (.739), 100 OPS+, 17.1 WAR
Prospect Hype: Most of Kepler's prospect hype was based on his 2015 season when the Southern League named him MVP. In 118 games that season, he hit .318/.410/.520 (.930) with 34 doubles, 13 triples, and nine home runs. Before the 2016 season, he was a consensus top-60 prospect, and Baseball America ranked him as baseball's 30th-best prospect. His 2015 totals were outliers compared to the rest of his minor league career. In 460 games, he hit .280/.361/.444 (.805) while only hitting double-digit home runs in one season. Kepler had many intangibles an organization would want from a top prospect, so there was hope he'd put it all together as he continued to develop. 

Career Totals: Kepler has been a league-average hitter at the big-league level according to OPS+, but his monster 2019 season skews his totals. In 134 games, he hit .252/.336/.519 (.855) with 32 doubles and 36 home runs. Baseballs were flying out of ballparks at a record rate that season, and Kepler has never hit more than 19 home runs in any season since 2019. Defensively, he is among baseball's best right fielders and provides tremendous value to the club on that side of the ball. Recency bias can cloud a fan's view of a player when Kepler has struggled offensively for multiple seasons. No matter how his Twins tenure ends, Kepler ranks among the top outfielders in team history because of his longevity on the roster. He's provided the Twins with value, but most of it comes from his longevity on the club and not from his overarching production. 
Met Expectations: No, he has yet to become a consistent MLB hitter. 

Jorge Polanco
Career Stats (10 Seasons): .270/.333/.445 (.778), 111 OPS+, 15.8 WAR, 1 All-Star Appearance
Prospect Hype: Polanco never ranked among baseball's top 100 prospects, so little national hype surrounded him before a unique big-league debut. During the 2014 season, injury concerns impacted the Twins, and they needed an extra infielder at the MLB level. Polanco was among the few healthy infielders on the 40-man roster, so the Twins called him up from High-A to make his big-league debut. Few prospects make that kind of jump, but Minnesota had confidence in the young shortstop even without experience in the upper minors. In over 600 minor league games, he hit .287/.348/.412 (.760) before becoming an even more powerful hitter with the Twins.  

Career Totals: Polanco might have lacked the hype compared to Buxton and Kepler, but he has provided tremendous value during his MLB career. He played shortstop at an All-Star level during the first half of his career before ankle injuries forced him to move to a less demanding defensive position. His career totals might also look different if he weren't suspended 80 games entering the 2018 season for testing positive for a performance-enhancing substance. Throughout his career, he has been an underrated core member of the Twins while consistently ranking among the team leaders in multiple offensive categories. His rWAR is behind Buxton and Kepler, but he has a higher OPS+ than both players. 
Met Expectations: Yes, he exceeded his prospect expectations.

Which of these players has met your expectations? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[Karbo]

Buxton needs to play in the field for 2 reasons. 1- To get the full value. He isn't hitting well enough which leads to 2- It is obvious to me that DH isn't working for him. He needs to play defense to fell better about himself rather than sitting on the bench thinking about how badly he is doing at the plate. The most injuries he's had recently have been at the plate or on the basepaths, not in the field. If he has sore knees either rest him, or DH on occasion, or IL him. Right now he is taking a roster spot that could be used by others.

Kepler needs to be DFA'd or traded. It seems that what we see is who he is. Again that's dead weight on the roster.

Polo needs to get healthy. When he is he is a game changer. Relianle bat and over his career has been a proven run producer and clutch hitter.

[ashbury]

Sounds about right for Max and Byron.  I might have had higher expectations for Jorge than others did, and hoped he would establish himself as a shortstop, but his right arm just never would support him grabbing that role and keeping it.  Jorge also has been beset by injuries, less than Byron but more than Max.  I think I imagined more from him also.

[dxpavelka]

3 hours ago, Karbo said:

Buxton needs to play in the field for 2 reasons. 1- To get the full value. He isn't hitting well enough which leads to 2- It is obvious to me that DH isn't working for him. He needs to play defense to fell better about himself rather than sitting on the bench thinking about how badly he is doing at the plate. The most injuries he's had recently have been at the plate or on the basepaths, not in the field. If he has sore knees either rest him, or DH on occasion, or IL him. Right now he is taking a roster spot that could be used by others.

Kepler needs to be DFA'd or traded. It seems that what we see is who he is. Again that's dead weight on the roster.

Polo needs to get healthy. When he is he is a game changer. Relianle bat and over his career has been a proven run producer and clutch hitter.

Plenty of value from Buxton just hitting.  If he was playing CF his value would be a LOT more than we're paying him.

 

[dxpavelka]

The prospects we need to be concerned with are Kiriloff & Larnach.  Short, early answer is no.  Hope that changes.  HOPE is not a strategy.

[Major League Ready]

21 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

Plenty of value from Buxton just hitting.  If he was playing CF his value would be a LOT more than we're paying him.

 

Buxton was good the 1st 5 weeks of the season.  Since 5/5 his wRC+ is 41.  Willi Castro is 108.  I am not inclined to say we are getting "plenty of value from Buxton just hitting".  He is a black hole in the lineup the past 6 weeks.

[Eris]

The past year, the Reds were in rebuilding mode, trading away more than half of their roster. The Twins were all in. The Reds and the Twins have identical records at this point. The main reason for this is the failure of Twins core to perform anywhere near their expected level. So no, Buxton, Polanco, Kepler, Sano have not met prospect expectations. I expect Polanco and Kepler to be gone before next season. 

[tony&rodney]

Polanco has been fine, although he has been pretty crippled the last few years. Kepler and Buxton have each had one good year and a host of glimpses of their talent. Sano? Too bad.

[MABB1959]

I feel bad for Buxton. The team IMO has tried to prevent him from injuries more than any other team would.   Just DHing has not done the trick at all.  So hard to watch this season.  I wonder if they have tried a sports psychologist?   He can’t hit, when he does he isn’t allowed to use his speed and can’t slide. I think for his own good he should be allowed to play CF and run and steal.  I am getting an eerie feeling he is pretty much done.  This is actually way worse than what we experienced with Mauer,.  

[Twins_Fan_For_Life]

WAR / 162 games played:

BB 5.3

JP 3.3

MK 3.1

Sano 1.7

Interesting

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, MABB1959 said:

This is actually way worse than what we experienced with Mauer,.  

Mauer was severely diminished due to the concussions yet still played a good first base and could hit. Mauer no longer was the catcher or extra base threat yet he never fell to automatic out DH only status. I feel real bad for whatever Buck is going through right now. I haven't lost all hope that his career is over but I also have no idea what is going on with him. It seems like an IL to regain some strength is needed, but without any first hand knowledge it is only a guess that Byron is even injured or unhealthy in any way, shape, or form.

[Aggies7]

2 hours ago, MABB1959 said:

I feel bad for buxton. The team IMO has tried to prevent him from injuries more than any other team would.   Just DHing has not done the trick at all.  So hard to watch this season.  I wonder if they have tried a sports psychologist?   He can’t hit, when he does he isn’t allowed to use his speed and can’t slide. I think for his own good he should be allowed to play CF and run and steal.  I am getting an eerie feeling he is pretty much done.  This is actually way worse than what we experienced with Mauer,.  

I’m sure the many millions of dollars he’s earning to hit .205 make him feel a little better

[dxpavelka]

10 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Buxton was good the 1st 5 weeks of the season.  Since 5/5 his wRC+ is 41.  Willi Castro is 108.  I am not inclined to say we are getting "plenty of value from Buxton just hitting".  He is a black hole in the lineup the past 6 weeks.

He's a streaky hitter and most likely will hit a hot streak again.  This team would be 3-5 games under .500 without him.

 

[Doctor Wu]

13 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Mauer was severely diminished due to the concussions yet still played a good first base and could hit. Mauer no longer was the catcher or extra base threat yet he never fell to automatic out DH only status. I feel real bad for whatever Buck is going through right now. I haven't lost all hope that his career is over but I also have no idea what is going on with him. It seems like an IL to regain some strength is needed, but without any first hand knowledge it is only a guess that Byron is even injured or unhealthy in any way, shape, or form.

I don't  know the reason (s) for Buxton's recent drought at the plate either, but as you suggested he needs to either go on the IL or snap out of this slump ASAP. What he is offering to the team now is detrimental to winning games. 

[Major League Ready]

7 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

He's a streaky hitter and most likely will hit a hot streak again.  This team would be 3-5 games under .500 without him.

 

If we use your mid point of 4 wins he would produce 9 wins for the season should he repeat his production to this point for the rest of the season.  His wRC+ is 101 so he has been an average offensive player with no defensive value.  Do you think we could produce league average offense or better out of the DH spot between Wallner / Julien or Larnach or a combination of those three and others?   The way I see it he has had virtually no value this season.  His .5 WAR also suggests he has produced very meager value this year.

[dxpavelka]

20 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

If we use your mid point of 4 wins he would produce 9 wins for the season should he repeat his production to this point for the rest of the season.  His wRC+ is 101 so he has been an average offensive player with no defensive value.  Do you think we could produce league average offense or better out of the DH spot between Wallner / Julien or Larnach or a combination of those three and others?   The way I see it he has had virtually no value this season.  His .5 WAR also suggests he has produced very meager value this year.

Seems highly unlikely we will be able to change what has already happened.  Seems highly possible that we can achieve different results going forward.  The history of the game is literally littered with such.

 

[TopGunn#22]

I drafted Buxton for my fantasy baseball team.  We play 4 outfielders and 4 DH's.  Right now I can't start him ahead of Luis Robert, Seiya Suzuki, Alex Kirilloff, Eloy Jimenez as OF, and Zeke Duran (whose playing quite well for the Rangers), Gerardo Perdomo-who, even though he's a switch hitter has to let Nick Amed Start 2 games a week against RH pitchers, Adam Duval-just back from injury, and Jaren Duran of the Red Sox who now has to squeeze in playing time with Duval, Verdugo and Yoshido.  I just picked up Mickey Moniak who's in the same situation with Trout, Taylor and Hunter Renfroe for the Angels for playing time.  Buxton just can't beat out any of these 9 guys the way he's playing now.  I'm of the opinion that they should just put Byron on the IL and give him time to get to some definition of healthy.  He is less than half the player he could be as an exclusive DH.  But with this horrible slump he's terrible.  If he's not healthy enough to play the field and he can't steal bases his health is also affecting his hitting.  He's not really healthy enough to play right now. 

[Whitey333]

20 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Plenty of value from Buxton just hitting.  If he was playing CF his value would be a LOT more than we're paying him.

 

Nice article.  Polanco has done a great job fir the Twins until this recent series of injuries.  Buxton and Kepler have become automatic outs.  Not sure if putting Buxton out in center field will help his offense.  But I must admit it couldn't hurt.  He is just awful at the plate.  Everyone talks about hiw great if an athlete he is and how lucky twins are to have him.  Unfortunately we very seldom get to see him play to find out.  8 seasons from a supposed superstar that spends more time on the IL than on the field.  And if he is too hurt to put him in centerfield then he needs to go back on the IL because he is hurting this team and has for quite some time.  I've always liked Kepler but it's obvious he needs to go.  Both Wallner and Larnach are better.

[Major League Ready]

6 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Seems highly unlikely we will be able to change what has already happened.  Seems highly possible that we can achieve different results going forward.  The history of the game is literally littered with such.

 

No doubt we can't change what has happened.  I also agree there is a good chance of different results going forward.  However, I responding to your post that suggested "This team would be 3-5 games under .500 without him."  That's where we disagree.  I think Julien or Wallner would have produced at least as well if not better.

[dxpavelka]

14 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Nice article.  Polanco has done a great job fir the Twins until this recent series of injuries.  Buxton and Kepler have become automatic outs.  Not sure if putting Buxton out in center field will help his offense.  But I must admit it couldn't hurt.  He is just awful at the plate.  Everyone talks about hiw great if an athlete he is and how lucky twins are to have him.  Unfortunately we very seldom get to see him play to find out.  8 seasons from a supposed superstar that spends more time on the IL than on the field.  And if he is too hurt to put him in centerfield then he needs to go back on the IL because he is hurting this team and has for quite some time.  I've always liked Kepler but it's obvious he needs to go.  Both Wallner and Larnach are better.

And yet the fact that both are in St. Paul would seem to suggest that somebody feels differently.

[dxpavelka]

On 6/18/2023 at 12:26 PM, Major League Ready said:

Buxton was good the 1st 5 weeks of the season.  Since 5/5 his wRC+ is 41.  Willi Castro is 108.  I am not inclined to say we are getting "plenty of value from Buxton just hitting".  He is a black hole in the lineup the past 6 weeks.

How would one go about distinguishing a black hole from the rest of this lineup?

[dxpavelka]

10 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

No doubt we can't change what has happened.  I also agree there is a good chance of different results going forward.  However, I responding to your post that suggested "This team would be 3-5 games under .500 without him."  That's where we disagree.  I think Julien or Wallner would have produced at least as well if not better.

Obviously someone sees things differently.

 

[Major League Ready]

7 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Obviously someone sees things differently.

 

The FO view was that Buxton would produce as well or better than their other options at DH.  That was a reasonable position when they made it, especially if the goal was to ease him back into a CF role.  What is not a reasonable IMO is to look at what has actually happened and conclude the team is 3-5 games better off because of Buxton which is where this started.   That's my only point and you want to make this about something else.  I assume this is because you don't want to try to make the case that using the mid-point of your calculation would produce 9 WAR from a DH hitting exactly league average.   Do you think it's reasonable to suggest that if Buxton's performance remains the same he will have been worth 9 WAR?  Of course, the 9 WAR assumes a replacement level player took his place.  

[dxpavelka]

11 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

The FO view was that Buxton would produce as well or better than their other options at DH.  That was a reasonable position when they made it, especially if the goal was to ease him back into a CF role.  What is not a reasonable IMO is to look at what has actually happened and conclude the team is 3-5 games better off because of Buxton which is where this started.   That's my only point and you want to make this about something else.  I assume this is because you don't want to try to make the case that using the mid-point of your calculation would produce 9 WAR from a DH hitting exactly league average.   Do you think it's reasonable to suggest that if Buxton's performance remains the same he will have been worth 9 WAR?  Of course, the 9 WAR assumes a replacement level player took his place.  

WAR, like most analytics, is a made up number that is what it is because someone says it is. 

[Major League Ready]

3 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

WAR, like most analytics, is a made up number that is what it is because someone says it is. 

 

3 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

WAR, like most analytics, is a made up number that is what it is because someone says it is. 

It's not the perfect stat but you just can't admit that the premise Buxton will make a 9 win difference playing as he has is absolutely absurd!  

[dxpavelka]

9 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

 

It's not the perfect stat but you just can't admit that the premise Buxton will make a 9 win difference playing as he has is absolutely absurd!  

It's an argument that can't be proven either way.

[Major League Ready]

16 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

It's an argument that can't be proven either way.

Are you saying that it can't be proven that Buxton won't add 9 wins if he continues to play the same way?

[dxpavelka]

5 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Are you saying that it can't be proven that Buxton won't add 9 wins if he continues to play the same way?

Not sure where you think I said anything about him continuing to play the same way.