Why Emilio Pagan Remains a Crucial Asset in the Minnesota Twins Bullpen

[Hunter McCall]

Emilio Pagan often receives hate from fans for his notorious meltdowns. Still, his role in the bullpen has been valuable, and the Twins will need him to continue to deliver going forward.

Image courtesy of David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports

 

When Emilio Pagan came to the Twins along with Chris Paddack before the 2022 season, he was immediately thrust into the team's closer spot to replace Taylor Rogers, who was sent to San Diego in the same trade. Replacing the beloved Rogers was a tall task that proved too big for Pagan almost immediately.

Implosion after implosion led to his eventual removal from the closer role, and Pagan ended up in a lower-leverage bullpen role. He put together a solid second half of the 2022 season. However, the damage to his reputation in the minds of Twins fans had been done, and the damage still echoes today any time Rocco Baldelli signals for the righty to enter out of the bullpen.

Calls to designated Pagan for assignment fill the Twitter feed every time he gives up a run, and it's almost guaranteed the grumpy old guy sitting next to you watching the game will holler, "OH GREAT, THIS ONE'S OVER!" every time Pagan gets the call. But is the criticism warranted, or is it residue from the disastrous first few months with the team?

One could describe Pagan's 2023 season as Boom or Bust. However, the boom has appeared far more often than the bust. When the bust comes, it's brutal, but he has been a very good reliever for (almost) the whole year. Currently, Pagan's ERA sits at 3.82, and his FIP is at a very good 3.39. For reference, Jhoan Duran's FIP sits at 3.27.

So, with Pagan's numbers being so good, why is the criticism still so high? Well, that's where the bust comes into play. There have been 3 (out of 28) awful appearances that have stuck in the craw of Twins fans. Against Boston in April, he gave up six runs after Kenta Maeda was hit in the shin by a line drive and forced to leave early. In May, he fell apart against the Dodgers, earning a blown save by giving up three runs while only getting one out. And most recently, in June against the Blue Jays, Pagan blew another save en route to giving up three runs on a Cavan Biggio home run that capped off a five-run Blue Jay comeback resulting in a loss for the Twins.

If you add those numbers up, that's 12 runs in 3 appearances. Pagan has only given up 14 runs on the season. That means he has given up two earned runs in his other 25 appearances. As I said, when he is off, he's as bad as anyone, but when on, he's been one of the better mid-relievers in baseball.

Emilio Pagan has been so important for the Twins this year as he's shown an ability to come into low-leverage situations or games in which guys like Duran, Brock Stewert, and Griffin Jax are unavailable and, more often than not, get the job done. Yes, he can be a nightmare occasionally, but he has done an overall good job in his role and is worth keeping around.

 

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[NotAboutWinning]

I'm not buying it. He is an excellent low leverage RP. But there is no such thing as a low leverage RP. That's like having a hitter who only hits home runs with no one on base. Who would ever.... Oh, never mind 🫤

[dberthia]

Don't drink this Kool-Aid, folks. Pagan had no right being on the roster to begin the season, and even less so today. If Rocco continues to put him on the field, it should be only in situations where the game is obviously well out of hand already.

[chpettit19]

Keeping Pagan was a move I never would've made this offseason. No idea why they did it. Keeping Pagan as we get deeper into the season is a move I'd never make. No idea why they're going to do it. But Pagan was useful for the first 3 months of the season.

He pitched well far more often than he pitched poorly. But he's done nothing but confirm that he can't be trusted in big spots. That's not a guy you can take into the second half of the year. You thought you could get more out of him. You did, in low leverage spots. It's time to start weeding out the guys you can't trust in the heat of a pennant race, or any possible playoff appearance. If you can't trust them in big spots, you need to get rid of them, and find someone you can trust.

Pagan hasn't been bad overall this year, but he's established he won't be good when he's truly needed. It's time to move on. He's one of a handful of guys it's time to move on from. And it's undoubtedly late enough in the season to start moving on. Time for the FO to start making moves. Trades aren't super likely right now, but internal promotions are absolutely possible. Time to raise the ceiling on this season.

[CRF]

Last night was another perfect example why Pagan needs to go. Sure, we would have ended up losing 2-1 anyway, because we can't hit worth a damn, but him giving up yet another homer just buried us. Please DFA Pagan now! Let him be some other teams reclamation project. 

[MMMordabito]

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Stop bringing logic to an emotional argument.

[farmerguychris]

No.... just no, time to move on. Trade him (the fo claims they can) for some no name single a reliever and bring up literally any other pro level pitcher to replace him.

[Cris E]

8 minutes ago, farmerguychris said:

No.... just no, time to move on. Trade him (the fo claims they can) for some no name single a reliever and bring up literally any other pro level pitcher to replace him.

Ha ha ha ha ha. No.

We played those guys last year and it was awful.  Pagan throws a clinker once a month instead of every other game. He can be frustrating, but he's not the problem.

[FlyingFinn]

Low leverage, inning eater - he is doing great this year. Any game that is tight - horrible. Just don't put him in any tight games unless everyone else is used up. Trouble is their are times you have to put your last guy in if the others have been used.

[Matt Braun]

I agree that the emotional aspect is overblown, but I can’t agree that he is “valuable” in a role that—for the most part—only sees him enter in games the team is already losing. That’s a human white flag. Only five times this year has the team brought him in when the score was tied or when the team was up by two or fewer runs. That’s a lot of mop-up duty just about any half-decent reliever could do. 

Edited June 27, 2023 by Matt Braun

[Dman]

Been thinking about this a fair bit and who do we have that would be much better at this time?  I would love to trade him at the deadline but all the young guys haven't really grabbed the role and I don't love Jovani Moran and his walk heavy 1.47 WHIP.  Sands hasn't been great and is on the IL.  Alcala, De Leon, Henriquez and Thielbar are all on the IL. Ortega didn't look all that great in his one shot.  Balazovich was OK in SSSS but has a 1.61 WHIP in AAA so I can't see depending on him at the MLB level.  Winder was horrible early on but maybe he has righted the ship?  Still a wild card though.  Headrick has been pretty good but got hammered his last time out and they seem to be saving him as a backup starter at this point.  SWR hasn't been good at AAA all year.  Jorge Lopez is out and hasn't been good since the first month of the year. If it wasn't for Brock Stewart this pen would be teetering on disaster.

There are no realistic options in the minors that I can see.  Maybe Enlow but he hasn't looked as good at the AAA level as he did at AA.  Granted SSSS there. So Pagan is it unless they are trading for someone else.  It might be why they were desperate to bring Kuechel in as maybe he can be an option?  I think we are stuck with Pagan to the end of the year unless they can work out a one for one trade with some other team or pull another Brock Stewart out of their hat.

[Dave Borton]

He is a filler in low leverage situations at best. Please don't use valuable in the same sentence with 'Pagan.'

Misuse of stats to justify baggage. Same stuff Rocco does. Long relief needs to be consistent, predictable. Those are antonyms, not synonyms, of Pagan.

[farmerguychris]

11 minutes ago, Cris E said:

Ha ha ha ha ha. No.

We played those guys last year and it was awful.  Pagan throws a clinker once a month instead of every other game. He can be frustrating, but he's not the problem.

@AaronGleeman

 

Emilio Pagán is the only MLB reliever with an ERA+ below 100 and negative Win Probability Added every season since 2020.

2020: 94 ERA+, -1.0 WPA

2021: 81 ERA+, -0.6 WPA

2022: 89 ERA+, -1.0 WPA

2023: 79 ERA+, -0.3 WPA His combined -2.9 WPA since 2020 is dead last for relievers.

 

His results prove he is worse than being 'just a guy'.  We would be a better team with literally any other relief pitcher in his place.

[Woof Bronzer]

He's been the worst reliever in baseball for 4 years.  His ERA this year when entering with the lead is still hovering around 15 I believe.  His HR rate is the worst in the history of baseball.  It's not possible to "hide" him (or any pitcher) in the bullpen, especially this bullpen - he's going to have to pitch in higher leverage situations at some point.  The minor leagues are littered with guys who can eat innings when the team is down 5 runs, at a much cheaper cost.  

This isn't complicated.

[OvertheHill]

Quote

If you add those numbers up, that's 12 runs in 3 appearances. Pagan has only given up 14 runs on the season. That means he has given up two earned runs in his other 25 appearances. As I said, when he is off, he's as bad as anyone, but when on, he's been one of the better mid-relievers in baseball.

That's called cherry picking stats. That's like picking selected Joey Gallo games and saying that when he's on, he's actually one of the better hitters in baseball. 

Not. Buying. It.

[Brett]

Assuming we don’t run away with the division, would you want him in the bullpen in September when *every* game is important? His results remind me of Ron Davis, so you can guess my vote.

[Craig Arko]

With Stewart on the IL, Pagan better step it up.

[NotAboutWinning]

Maybe I don't understand the concept of low leverage. Down 2-1 in the 7th is the definition of high leverage... Unless you've already deemed the game unwinnable!!!

[pierre75275]

The real question is, when was the last time Pagan wasnt instremental in a Twins loss vs a twins win?

That is where all the viritol comes from. Him costing the Twins wins, not saving them from defeats

 

[IaBeanCounter]

34 minutes ago, Craig Arko said:

With Stewart on the IL, Pagan better step it up.

That's terrible news, as I don't think Pagan can step it up.   Pagan has appeared in 12 games against top teams (Hou, NYY, Bos, LAD, Tor & TB).  In 5 of the 12 he allowed runs, in 2 of remaining 7 he allowed inherited runners to score.  Even excluding the Boston debacle his ERA in remaining 11 games is 6.17.  In his 16 appearances against lower level teams he has allow 1 earned run over 20 innings (ERA of .45).   He is good against average or below average teams, but unreliable against good teams.  (Note; I excluded 1 appearance against Toronto where he hit the only batter he face and was removed with an injury)

[LA Vikes Fan]

Hey guys, Brock Stewart just went on the IL with right elbow soreness. Get ready for Pagan in a lot more medium high to high leverage situations. 

On the positive side, here's is a shot for Balazovic, Headrick and Winder to get a good BP slot (Ortega is a long shot).  Hope somebody steps up. 

[Cris E]

Well maybe the offense will feel some compulsion to get up and score some runs. It doesn't have to be the pitchers who carry the load every game, and a three run cushion makes any bullpen look better.

[sftwinsfan]

Was just listening to something on YouTube, in high leverage situations opponents have around a 1.400 OPS against him. How many games over a span of a week or two was he involved with blowing just against Cleveland last year? I'm not opposed to running him out there in games where you're down by 3 runs, take the pressure off and he's been pretty good. In a tight game late though, I think they'd have a better chance letting a position player pitch. 

[LastOnePicked]

I appreciate what you're doing here, but this just seems like Minnesota Nice on steroids. Sorry, PEDs - Politeness Enhancing Delusions.

Bless the man's heart, but he has no business being on the Twins. He cost the Padres a season in 2021. He cost the Twins a season in 2022. He has the worst current case of yips in professional sports. This FO has made many errors, but keeping Pagan is one of their worst.

 

[jkcarew]

Stu??? Is that you, Stu!!?

[Beast]

If I’m recalling the stat correctly from a Gleeman and Geek podcast at some point, there isn’t a pitcher (maybe reliever) in baseball that has a lower WPA than Pagan over the last 4 seasons.  He’s been with Minnesota for 3 of those.

Thats literally the opposite of valuable.  I don’t care what his FIP is over the last few weeks.  He could be Mariano Rivera for the next 2 years and still not have contributed a positive WPA number as a Twin.

I do applaud the creative attempt at contrarianism.  

[gil4]

2 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

On the positive side, here's is a shot for Balazovic, Headrick and Winder to get a good BP slot (Ortega is a long shot).  Hope somebody steps up. 

BP... Batting practice?

Oh, bullpen.

Actually, let's call it a toss-up.  

[gil4]

I saw the title and thought "Randballs Stu. - this should be good." 

[mikelink45]

I apologize - I read the title and could not go further.