Dodgers 7, Twins 3: Wasted Opportunities, Pagán Meltdown Cost Minnesota the Series

[stringer bell]

The Twins are 24-0 and Rocco is 0-20 I guess. I think taking De Leon out was the right move and it was either bringing in Lopez for four outs or trying to get one from Pagan, who hadn't pitched in two days. It didn't work out, but that doesn't make it the wrong strategy. 

[Fred]

1 hour ago, GNess said:

I am not seeing what the Twins FO/Management sees in Pagan? Clearly, they have enough performance data over the last season and 1/4 to know he is simply not consistently effective in pressure (high leverage) situations. 

 

OMG, Is there a way I can upvote this 100 times? It seems Pagan would only be suitable in low-leverage situations, either in an inning eater role when behind by 8 runs, or never with a lead of less than 5 (not sure that's enough). At least with a 5 run lead they could get him out of there after 3 batters.

[h2oface]

2 hours ago, stringer bell said:

The Twins are 24-0 and Rocco is 0-20 I guess. I think taking De Leon out was the right move and it was either bringing in Lopez for four outs or trying to get one from Pagan, who hadn't pitched in two days [same as Lopez and Duran]. It didn't work out, but that doesn't make it the wrong strategy. 

Pagan, Lopez, and Duran had a day off yesterday. Of the three, Pagan had 41 pitches thrown the last 3 days, Lopez 35, and Duran 18. Sometimes you need to bring in your best pitcher before the 9th. 

Pagan did have a couple perfect pitches called balls though (1 and 4) to Heyward. The pitches a pitcher deserves most. The perfectly placed strike. Barely a strike. And he got screwed by the inadequate plate ump. The theme of the series. Heyward struck out looking on the 4th pitch with an acurate system to call balls and strikes.

[Jocko87]

As a terminal optimist I choose to look at this series in a positive light. Buxtons quotes after yesterdays game are exactly right. Just like the Yankee series there is enough good that they realize that they can play at this level and enough kicks in the clackers to remind them there is a lot more work to do.

I’m of the opinion that DFA Pagan is part of that work but chill out on the FO. This is the most talented 40 man roster most of us have ever seen in our Twins fandoms.  The bullpen is the easiest group to fix in season and there is time to do it. 

It might have actually been worse for the overall season had they swept this and the Yankee series.  Now get back to work. 

[shabbos1]

2 hours ago, GNess said:

I am not seeing what the Twins FO/Management sees in Pagan? Clearly, they have enough performance data over the last season and 1/4 to know he is simply not consistently effective in pressure (high leverage) situations. 

 

Great stuff and elite spin rate.  He just needs another 75 innings or so to work out the kinks.  Trust the process ...

[AceWrigley]

From the game thread:

4 hours ago, CRF said:

        Oh no...bases loaded! Yikes! 

 3 hours ago, OvertheHill said:

        I hope we’re not getting Pagan’d 

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

I think this pretty much sums up the game.

[Rosterman]

How come no one is mentioning moving Farmer to 2nd and bringing back Miranda!

[mnfireman]

9 minutes ago, Rosterman said:

How come no one is mentioning moving Farmer to 2nd and bringing back Miranda!

Well, Miranda is slashing .227/.250/.227  .477 OPS @ St. Paul, not exactly tearing it up...

[AceWrigley]

32 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

As a terminal optimist . . .

Death by optimism.

[USAFChief]

12 minutes ago, Rosterman said:

How come no one is mentioning moving Farmer to 2nd and bringing back Miranda!

Cause nobody wants that?

Just spitballin' here...

 

 

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

3 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

Sometimes you're the pigeon, sometimes you're the statue. On Monday Cuzzi was the pigeon and the Twins were the statue. Today the Dodgers were the pigeon and Pagan was the statue.

We’re Tippi Hedren?

[Jocko87]

37 minutes ago, AceWrigley said:

Death by optimism.

I'll take it!

[tony&rodney]

Tune in to Bob Marley, "Don't worry about a thing, cuz every little thing 's gonna be alright..."

[UK Twin]

Pagan has been fine this season when he starts a new inning. But the times when he comes in with runners on base, each time has been a complete disaster. Surely Lopez could have put out the fire and pitch into the 8th, then get Duran to take over after he'd thrown so many pitches. Rocco's got a lot right this year but that was horrific game management. 

Having said that, he can't be blamed for yet another failure to cash in on a bases loaded, no out situation. Sigh, another game that got away. 

[Peter]

If not for bad umpires in game 1 we won this series. Agreed on needing to get hits with runners in scoring position. That’s going to get better. Otherwise I think we can sweep angels or very worse go 2-1. 

[Major League Ready]

12 hours ago, PDX Twin said:

Maybe Rocco gives them hell sometimes, but you never hear about it or see it in his interviews.

I would certainly hope not.  I am sure you have heard the saying praise in public, criticize in private or some version of this.  It's just not effective to say anything bad publicly.  Athletes today just do not respond well to public criticism.   

[mikelink45]

Fascinating story line.  I wrote so much about Pagan and how awful he is last year so I have used up all my printable comments for him.

Baldelli sticks with the script and Pagan was the worst choice there after DeLeon and Moran did their jobs.  With a day off and the opponent being the Dodgers - go with your best.

I am so baffled by the loaded bases ineptitude.  That is a stat that should not happen.  Just by accident we should score once. 

Please put Polanco on 10 day - don't keep him on the active roster because he might be okay in 9 days.

Poor Gordon, what a set back. 

[Doctor Wu]

5 hours ago, UK Twin said:

Pagan has been fine this season when he starts a new inning. But the times when he comes in with runners on base, each time has been a complete disaster. Surely Lopez could have put out the fire and pitch into the 8th, then get Duran to take over after he'd thrown so many pitches. Rocco's got a lot right this year but that was horrific game management. 

Having said that, he can't be blamed for yet another failure to cash in on a bases loaded, no out situation. Sigh, another game that got away. 

Pretty accurate assessments all the way around. Leaving the bases loaded hurts the most. 

[TwinsDr2021]

Expecting 5 clean innings from mediocre relief pitchers is crazy. After only getting 4 2/3 from Lopez in game 1, and then using your 5 best relief pitchers in a loss,  you had to see this coming. Ober did a great job of giving 6 innings and giving the pen a rest, but instead of getting a real rest, they used 3 more relief pitchers. Last nights game was set up for Gray long day, and if not things weren't going to go well the good guys, because of the previous days bullpen usage. This team isn't really all that hard to figure out, most of what they do isn't all that hard to figure out.

 

[Obie]

There are undoubtedly multiple reasons for the Twins ineptitude with the bases loaded. Yesterday, it was over aggressiveness. The Dodgers' reliever didn't throw a single pitch in the strike zone to the first two hitters, Polanco and Solano. Nevertheless, Polanco swung four times at pitches outside the zone and Solano three times.

[Nine of twelve]

50 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

 Athletes today just do not respond well to public criticism.   

I think this is true for most people.

[Krasnoludki]

Although I'm not a big Pagan fan, I think we should be fair with him. Except for one game in Boston (4/20), he has been a great reliever: 2 BB in April, and until last night only 2 BB in May and he has allowed more than one hit in a game only once in May. Even the best pitchers have melt-downs once in awhile. The problem is that we know his history from last year. I'm hoping that last night was just a bump in the road and not a repeat of 2022.

[HoskenPowell]

14 hours ago, GNess said:

I am not seeing what the Twins FO/Management sees in Pagan? Clearly, they have enough performance data over the last season and 1/4 to know he is simply not consistently effective in pressure (high leverage) situations. 

 

The brain trust simply will NOT admit the horrific fail the Padres trade was.

[John Belinski]

The Twins are 0-7 with bases loaded and not outs. They must be the worst team in baseball with bases loaded. Maybe Rocco should try something different after going 0-7. With bases loaded the next 2 batters had only 1 pitch in the strike zone.  Either Rocco or hitting coach have to go since the Twins keep swinging at bad pitches. The other teams manager know this and just has his pitcher throw pitches out of strike zone. Gallo had one at bat where the pitcher threw 8 pitches  out of strike zone and he struck out. 

Maybe the Twins will have a winning season, but only if they stop swinging at bad pitches.

[Whitey333]

Yes it was obviously the wrong strategy.  Rocco continues to show how not to handle a bullpen.  Pagan is not a m never has been the guy to use in High pressure situations.  He should not even be on the roster in my opinion.  If Pagan represents the best option we have in the bullpen we are in a world of hurt.  The FO inability/ unwillingness to upgrade the bullpen is really showing.

[Blyleven2011]

Definitely a Heartbreaker , this was a winnable series and we botched it ...

I believe ,  but am always disappointed  , the strategy never changes ...

Who is accountable  , the players , the hitting coach or the players manager or the plan of the FO  ...

[ashbury]

16 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

Today the Dodgers were the pigeon and Pagan was the statue.

As a Twins fan I feel like the statue, and I look up in the sky to see Pagan taking aim.

[TwinsAce]

16 hours ago, stringer bell said:

The Twins are 24-0 and Rocco is 0-20 I guess. I think taking De Leon out was the right move and it was either bringing in Lopez for four outs or trying to get one from Pagan, who hadn't pitched in two days. It didn't work out, but that doesn't make it the wrong strategy. 

With Pagan's stats against left handed batters this season, it seemed like a rough choice.  But it ideally would have been one out between the next two batters.  At least De Leon did his job to get us to a spot where we needed just one out.

Side note - this is when we wish Thielbar was back from his injury! Hope everything is going okay there.  With some of the recent struggles, the team needs him.

[h2oface]

Easy Fix. Every learns to bunt. Bunt well with the bases loaded and no outs - score a run and give up an out at first. Bunt well. Buxton probably is safe at first. At least you get a run. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

7 hours ago, Krasnoludki said:

Although I'm not a big Pagan fan, I think we should be fair with him. Except for one game in Boston (4/20), he has been a great reliever: 2 BB in April, and until last night only 2 BB in May and he has allowed more than one hit in a game only once in May. Even the best pitchers have melt-downs once in awhile. The problem is that we know his history from last year. I'm hoping that last night was just a bump in the road and not a repeat of 2022.

Agreed with your desire for fairness to Pagan, disagree with your assessment. Pagan has a -.27 WPA. I would call that reasonably effective in very low leverage. The problem is, he’s a veteran reliever, Rocco needs the minor league/quad A development pipeline to be those reasonably effective low leverage relievers to try to turn them into effective high leverage relievers.

Sands, Winder, Deleon they should be the low leverage guys who become high leverage some day.

Pagan needs to succeed under pressure or get DFA’d, but they don’t have anyone chomping at the bit to take his place.