Is Byron Buxton Too Much Miguel Sano?

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins have had a strong start to their season, and they have a series victory against the Houston Astros along with a split with the New York Yankees in New York. Although Byron Buxton isn’t yet playing in the field, he’s been consistently in the lineup as the designated hitter. Unfortunately, his approach has been less than ideal.

 

Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

For years, the Minnesota Twins operated as though Byron Buxton was a slap hitter with the ability to get on base only by putting the ball on the ground. Utilizing his otherworldly speed, it seemed the goal was to bunt or put the ball in play and then hope his quickness would translate to miscues by the defense.

Since 2019, we have seen Buxton become among the best hitters in baseball. In maturing as a player, he retooled his swing and distanced himself from a process that left so many of his skills going to waste. From the Bomba Squad year up until last season, Buxton owned an .874 OPS which translated to a 136 OPS+. The only problem is that his on-base abilities have never taken off.

For years it has seemed like Buxton was more of a gap and power hitter than he was truly a singles and stolen base guy. As much speed as he possesses, there is no denying that the thump brought by his bat can be powerful. On a per-162 game basis, Buxton’s home run numbers rival those of Aaron Judge and Mike Trout. With power traditionally comes strikeouts though, and while they represent an out just like any other, drawing walks to even things out is a must.

When the Twins signed Joey Gallo this offseason the immediate sentiment was another Miguel Sano type player being brought into the fold. That’s not necessarily wrong in and of itself, but the reality is that Gallo has consistently produced strong on-base skills to go with his power. Sano only flashed that in small bursts, and had he been able to continue, there is less of a chance he’d be unemployed right now.

Unfortunately for Buxton, he not only isn’t a great average hitter (which is fine), but he has failed to consistently deliver in the on-base category (which is not). Buxton’s slash line is so heavily skewed toward his slugging percentage that any time he goes through slumps the lack of production will be massively felt. He’s not quite a three true outcomes player, but he is much more closely tied than anyone with his abilities should be.

In 2023 the Twins have seen Buxton strike out a league-high 25 times across just 16 games. He has drawn just six walks to offset that output. While Buxton was named an All-Star last year he struck out in a whopping 30.4% of his at bats. That’s just north of his career average, and has jumped all the way to 35.7% in the early going of 2023.

With a process resulting in that much whiffing, it’s not surprising the contact isn’t ideal either. Buxton’s 23.7% hard hit rate is a career-low, and well off the 40% he has tallied each of the past two seasons. He is actually chasing similar to previous seasons at 32.7%, but any time he swings out of the zone it has resulted in just a 55.8% contact rate.

There hasn’t been a substantial change in the way pitchers have attacked Buxton when he steps in this year either. He’s seeing a similar number of fastballs and offspeed offerings, but the usage of curveballs against him has doubled. That could be reflective of intention, or simply the repertoire carried by those arms he has faced.

At any rate, strikeouts have long been an issue for Buxton, and maybe not stated to the degree of a Sano or current teammate Gallo. Both of those players have career OBP numbers north of .325. Since Buxton broke out in 2019, he has generated just a .316 OBP and he falls off a cliff entirely when the slugging output is not there. For 2023 Buxton has a paltry .300 OBP, and his .687 OPS makes him a 94 OPS+ hitter. That might be fine if he was also providing elite outfield defense. As a top-of-the-order designated hitter, it isn’t what the Twins can handle at all.

This is still a relatively small sample size for 2023, but the trend is a concerning one that has gone on for years. Buxton needs to strike out less, or find a way to generate more walks. Being an all or nothing guy that misses time and doesn’t regularly play defense isn’t good for anyone involved.

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[Cap'n Piranha]

I wonder if Buxton is one of those guys who just don't stay engaged when they have to go 30-45 minutes in between any kind of game action.  Perhaps getting out on the field is necessary for Buxton to truly produce at the plate.  Either way, this has to get figured out, and soon.

[jkcarew]

He is what he is at this point. I expect the K% to come back 'down' to 30%, his career rate, as the season progresses. But the OBP won't...low 300's is about as good as it's going to get.

The biggest problem right now...the biggest difference between 2023 and 2019-2022 for Buxton is that his HR-rate is WAY WAY down. Instead of an Aaron Judge pace, he's on a 162-game pace for about 20. That's not going to provide a ton of value combined with the low OBP.

For Buxton to be 'good' offensively, his fly balls need to leave the park at a very, very high rate. That's what he's had in his recent good seasons...league-leading HR/FB rates. That's who he is offensively.

[RpR]

Being forced to play Designated Hitter, or Designated Strike Out, YES

[jkcarew]

Oops.

[CarpetGuy]

IMO, the slower start to his being productive may be  attributed to getting such a late start facing live Major League pitching.  I’m quite certain Buck is not happy with his performance so far either, but the FO has to accept responsibility for their “erring on the side of caution”.

 

[chpettit19]

43 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Since the team will rarely if ever let Buxton steal a base, may as well utilize his speed in obtaining extra bases on his hits. I do have concerns regarding his tendency to chase pitches as Sano did.  If he could get a better handle on the strike zone and not chase, his walk rate would rise helping his OBP.  I do not think he needs to hit mammoth home runs.  I loved his opposite field double last night and feel that he could improve with going the other way on outside pitches.

Their problem isn't so much chasing pitches as missing pitches in the zone. Sano's chase percent for his career was 25.5. League average is 28.4. Buxton is at 27.5 this year which is only slightly up from his 26.8 last year. Neither is/was crazy good at laying off pitches outside the zone, but they are/were above average at it.

But their zone contact rates are both below average. Leave average is 82. Sano had a career 73.4 rate, and Buxton is at 80.6. Buxton's whiff rate of 29.3 is way over the league average of 24.7. He's aggressive in the zone, and good enough at not chasing, but he's simply swinging and missing, or fouling off, at too high of a rate. Same as Sano's problems. Buxton isn't a high walk guy because he's really aggressive at swinging at pitches in the zone (78.3% compared to league average of 69). Chasing isn't the problem, missing on his swings is.

[bloggymcbloggerson]

it's 1/10th of a season. we don't have to do this yet.

[Doctor Gast]

42 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

I wonder if Buxton is one of those guys who just don't stay engaged when they have to go 30-45 minutes in between any kind of game action.  Perhaps getting out on the field is necessary for Buxton to truly produce at the plate.  Either way, this has to get figured out, and soon.

I think that's a very good point & could very well be true. IMO it's difficult for Buck to DH & produce especially on a long term basis. He's a player that wants to be engaged in the game much as possible. Therefore management needs to rethink their strategy because of this and because we could  be better off if we use a different DH in some instances.

[tony&rodney]

Swing path is my guess. It seems like Buxton often has a severe upper cut, which makes it really hard to find the ball. Last night (4/19), Buxton doubled to right center and he had a noticeably flatter (not flat at all) swing at the ball. Buck does what he does and the adjustments seem slow. He sure has a quick bat though and it would be nice to see more contact.

[Heiny]

I seems to me that a lot of players get complacent.  I'd like to see a little more fire and effort, epecially from the so-called stars.

[Dman]

I think some of this evens out over time but he is who he is at this point.  He needs those fly balls to make it over the fence to be productive since he doesn't walk much.  Still pitchers arms are strong early and cold weather can make it hard to stand in the box and concentrate.  They have faced a lot of good pitchers lately so its just too early for me to conclude much. April is a slow month for a lot of hitters.

[TopGunn#22]

He's certainly out of synch at the plate to start out the season, no question about that.  I agree with tony&rodney, his swing is far too uppercut.  A better swing plane should bring him more consistent contact.  With his average exit velo and speed he should hit for a higher average than he has, but he doesn't walk nearly enough either.  After his completely dumba$$ baserunning the other game that resulted in the collision near second base I just threw up my hands and said "enough with this strategy to 'protect' him.  He can't be protected from himself!!"  Just put him in CF and give him the green light to steal with the instruction he is NOT allowed to slide headfirst (he's the worst, most awkward head first slider I've ever seen).  His speed is completely negated if we won't just give him the green light.  Good grief, we have ONE stolen base this year in a season that is finally seeing a revival of the stolen base.  There are teams who have more stolen bases than we even have ATTEMPTS!  

I will conclude my rant with this anecdote.  I was watching the Twins game today and I swear, shortly after Pagan was brought in to pitch after Maeda had to leave the game, our tornado awareness sirens had their test.  Tornado warning sirens blaring, Pagan did not disappoint.  I was glad I was sheltering in the southwest corner of my basement.   

[rv78]

There are 2 things that others have touched on that may bring some answers. #1, Maybe playing DH isn't the role for Buck. Maybe he needs to play defense to stay engaged offensively. #2, Maybe the lack of playing time against real opposing pitchers in spring training is showing up in April. Even Correa who didn't play much in ST is off to a slow start. Maybe the players you are counting on should actually play a decent number of games in ST so they are ready when the real games that count are played. No, it's just a coincidence. 

[mikelink45]

I am glad you chose to address this Ted.  I am very disappointed in the "Superstar" Buxton.  Without fielding his value is truly diminished.  I remember the first years he was up and they struggled with him to get a batting stance that worked - step, spread stance, etc.  It did not work, then suddenly it seemed to take. His first four years he hit 209, 205, 253, 156.  OPA+ 57, 90, 93, 5.  Yes there were injuries - there always are.

But then age 25 - 28 his OPS+ went to 115, 125, 171, 134.  

Now it is 94 and falling.  I wish I knew what to say, but at this point Michael Taylor is outperforming him with a 95. 

For a team struggling for offense this is not acceptable. 

[PDX Twin]

Yes, he is becoming Sano, and it's the Twins' fault! He has tremendous skill, but power hitting is the only dimension that seems to interest the Twins. Sad! He's an exciting player being crippled by that philosophy. He should have signed somewhere where a team will utilize all of his skills. We get a few extra first-to-thirds from his speed, and an occasional infield hit or stretched-into-double. But really, he might as well run like Sano if he's not going to play in the field or try to steal bases.

[JD-TWINS]

5 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I think that's a very good point & could very well be true. IMO it's difficult for Buck to DH & produce especially on a long term basis. He's a player that wants to be engaged in the game much as possible. Therefore management needs to rethink their strategy because of this and because we could  be better off if we use a different DH in some instances.

He hit .385 the first week of the season - basically won 2 games v. KC by himself. Now we’re 3 weeks in……..Pitchers/Teams make adjustments & pitch to weaknesses. Buxton needs to do the same. He’s two good games away from being just fine. He’s gotta make it happen! Playing centerfield isn’t some panacea for getting his hitting squared away.

I don’t think there’s any intention of him not playing CF at all……we have 143 games left to play. Taylor - 60 games…..Gordon 40 games……..Buxton 40 games is a scenario where we get him ready for any situations we may need him in CF. Remember, he’s only played an average of 46% of the games over 7 of 8 years. He may need a few mental health/rest days even at the DH role. Nothing surprising about that.

Many years, really good players have two bad months to start a season. Some guys do it year after year. Some guys collapse in September. It’s a long season & individual’s success is often streaky in 8-10 day cycles of good. As long as the whole line-up doesn’t slump at once we’ll be OK.

Gotta lighten up on the ultimatums for immediate performance or else……that’s not baseball.

Need our two starters back on right side of IF to help stabilize things!!

[wornsmooth]

7 hours ago, bloggymcbloggerson said:

it's 1/10th of a season. we don't have to do this yet.

In 1966 the Twins were in a pennant race and Tony Oliva looked to be a lock for his 3rd consecutive batting title.  Late in the season Tony O went into a deep slump, costing him the title, and conceivably, the pennant for the Twins. (being their best player).

Many years later I found out Tony had been in a minor car accident and had suffered whiplash. Can you imagine trying to hit major league pitching when it hurts to turn your head? The results , in hindsight, weren't surprising. 

Now that I am older and realize that baseball players aren't supermen, I understand that performance will suffer when playing hurt. It just depends on the type, and amount, of injury. I look back on that year and ask myself: "why in hell was he being played with that injury? Surely someone else could have been in the lineup while he healed up."

It strikes me as nuts to play someone with that kind of injury. 

The series (day?) before the Yankees series Buxton suffered a collision with him landing hard on his shoulder

and head, twisting his neck. Since then he has hardly touched a pitch. (I think one hard hit ball-yesterday). To me it seems obvious he was injured in the collision. Possibly a neck injury. Of course he won't be able to hit with that kind of injury.. 

It strikes me as dumb to have played him while hurt. Not to mention a grave disservice to him both professionally and as a person.

 

[TWTwinsFan]

batting order needs to be rearranged,Buxton can not bat behind a better hitter,pitchers know who is better dealing with

[dxpavelka]

Gallo & Sano have the EXACT SAME career on base percentage.  But don't let facts get in the way of whatever point you're trying to make.

 

[PDX Twin]

21 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

Gallo & Sano have the EXACT SAME career on base percentage.  But don't let facts get in the way of whatever point you're trying to make.

 

Which is why a lot of us were NOT happy about signing Gallo!

Which is better? How about neither?!

[tony&rodney]

12 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

Gallo & Sano have the EXACT SAME career on base percentage.  But don't let facts get in the way of whatever point you're trying to make.

 

I noted the eery similarity between Sano and Gallo when the Twins added Joey this winter. It is a little weird actually and a reason I wondered how the signing would work. However Gallo seems healthy and does add some versatility.

I think the post was positing whether Buxton was becoming too one dimensional and the mention of Gallo's OBP  as an improvement, while inaccurate for their careers, is not totally pertinent to the Buxton-Sano similarity as a DH thought. The fact that it is April makes this a pretty quick idea, particularly as Sano and Buxton are different types of players overall.

Good to note the OBP as a general thought on Gallo and Sano. It is hard to imagine that Sano couldn't get a look anywhere, which makes one wonder about his desire to actually play baseball professionally any longer. It is a grind.

Franmil Reyes is still playing.

[JD-TWINS]

44 minutes ago, TWTwinsFan said:

batting order needs to be rearranged,Buxton can not bat behind a better hitter,pitchers know who is better dealing with

Agreed. Don’t understand the value of Buxton hitting behind Correa v. the reverse. Buxton struggles to get good pitches to hit - protect him, so to speak, with Carlos. Maybe getting Polanco & Kiriloff back will help get enough balance in the line-up to protect both of them?

[BD57]

8 hours ago, CarpetGuy said:

IMO, the slower start to his being productive may be  attributed to getting such a late start facing live Major League pitching.  I’m quite certain Buck is not happy with his performance so far either, but the FO has to accept responsibility for their “erring on the side of caution”.

 

When Buck had that collision at 2nd base, who on here didn't think "Well, he'll be out 'til September ...."

He's supposed to be a baseball player.  Defense was part of setting the price when the Twins signed him to the current contract.  IMO, he needs to be in the field.

[joefish]

Ted, I'm just glad this wasn't one of your Friday posts.

Buxton and Correa are both non - contributors at this point. Kepler too far too often. We need these guys.

[Blyleven2011]

Good analysis but doubtful Buxton is anything close to Sano  ...

It's a small sample size to 2023 season and something isn't clicking with Buxton  and as some has stated it hasn't clicked since he tumbled ...

Really we should be looking at the entire offense cause most of the offense isn't clicking ,,,

I looked up total team stats this morning and if memory serves me right ... 

175 strikeouts  give or take ...

Roughly 575 at bat's ... 

120 hits give or take  ...

20 homeruns  ...

11 doubles ... ( really  , this should be more than the homerun total ) 

75 rbi's  give or take ... 

Will the hitting heat up or will it have an explosive day and then a few mediocre  days in a row ...

Don't forget situational hitting as an accomplice  , something the coaches don't seem to emphasize  ...

I'm not complaining yet about Buxton  , I'm complaining on the entire offense  ...

3 run Homer's are game changers ...

Solo Homer's and strikeouts are not ...

 

[Jeff D.]

Hitting Stats tell us what happens if a guy is in the batter's box.

A complete baseball player stands in the batter's box and then goes into the field.

A great ballplayer stands in the batter's box, goes into the field and does this consistently for years while producing results.

Byron Buxton is not a great ballplayer. He is, however, very well paid for a part time, over-hyped major leaguer. Kudos to him for maximizing his earning potential. He is far less of a contributor for this Twins team than most of the players that are on our roster. My personal (probably unpopular opinion) thoughts are that we should unload the guy (no-trade clause), but that seems very remotely possible.

GO TWINS!

Twins Geezer ... out. 

[Carnegie]

Buxton has some of the best foot speed in the league. He is maybe the best center fielder. He can steal bases with that great speed. The Twins utilize none of it, instead he's tooled into a hard swinging, frequent strike out guy. Guess it's all he can really do and why? BECAUSE HE WILL BE INJURED OTHERWISE. He is what he is I guess.

[MABB1959]

I would compare the “Buxton Situation” closer to what the Twins experienced with Mauer.  For us non-stat fans the excitement or expectations of having a superstar seem to be fading. 

[MABB1959]

1 hour ago, Jeff D. said:

Hitting Stats tell us what happens if a guy is in the batter's box.

A complete baseball player stands in the batter's box and then goes into the field.

A great ballplayer stands in the batter's box, goes into the field and does this consistently for years while producing results.

Byron Buxton is not a great ballplayer. He is, however, very well paid for a part time, over-hyped major leaguer. Kudos to him for maximizing his earning potential. He is far less of a contributor for this Twins team than most of the players that are on our roster. My personal (probably unpopular opinion) thoughts are that we should unload the guy (no-trade clause), but that seems very remotely possible.

GO TWINS!

Twins Geezer ... out. 

Or just let him play and whatever happens so be it.  Another couple years like this will be depressing for fans and Buxton too.