Article: Twins Won't Rule Out Trading For Lance Lynn

[John Bonnes]

He’s a starting pitcher with outstanding underlying numbers that are disguised by pitching in a tough home ballpark. He’s signed to a reasonable deal that keeps him under team control through 2021. He’s recently been made available on the trade market, and I can report that the Twins are “very serious” about him as a potential low-cost addition.

 

But would the Twins really consider trading for Lance Lynn?Lynn, of course, pitched for the Twins last year, and disappointed Twins fans and the organization with a 5.10 ERA. He seemed unwilling or unable to throw strikes. But immediately upon being traded to the Yankees, his control returned as he posted a 4.14 ERA with a 2.17 FIP. Over the offseason, the 32-year-old signed a three-year $30M deal with the Rangers, and has posted a 3.93 ERA and a 3.00 FIP while pitching in one of MLB’s tougher parks. That’s good for an ERA+ of 129.

 

That’s a better ERA+ than any of the Twins pitchers other than Jose Berrios. That’s a lower FIP than anyone on the Twins staff. And he’s thrown more innings than anyone in the Twins rotation, too. This is not the Lance Lynn you remember.

 

But, geez, just try to forget. Those first pitches out of the zone. The nibbling. The early exits. The dour demeanor….

 

There’s no indication that Lynn is anything more than another option the Twins are considering, but given his history, that is news all by itself. Lynn hasn’t been a talked-about option in the Twins Daily forums, while teammate Mike Minor absolutely is. But Lynn clearly should be.

 

The situation around Lynn was not that different than it was for Ryan Pressly. He was moved in a trade deadline deal, and thrived with his new team. Over the offseason he got a multi-year deal and continues to produce at a high level.

 

But the expectations and narrative around them is totally different. Pressly, who didn’t have much in the way of expectations, is viewed as an organizational failing. The Astros convinced him to do something that the Twins didn’t and turned him into an outstanding trade deadline addition.

 

Lynn, however, had all kinds of expectations, and his performance is viewed as a personal, not organizational, failing. He was angry about his contract. He didn’t want to be here. He was unwilling to throw strikes.

 

But what If those narratives are incomplete? Or what if they don’t really matter? The simple reality would be that the Twins could acquire a solid #2 starter under contract for 2021, whose only blemish is that he had a rough few months under the old coaching staff. Breaking news: a lot of the Twins starting pitchers had a rough few months under the old coaching staff.

 

Do the optics matter here? For how long? If Lynn is the only starting pitcher the Twins acquire at the deadline, from a public relations perspective, they’ll be torn to shreds. It will be worse than if they don’t add any starting pitching at all. Lynn will need to be even better than he has been in Arlington (which should be possible, given the difference in ballparks) to eventually erase that narrative. Hopefully, the reality would eventually overcome the perception.

 

The Twins, who we pride as increasingly analytical, might have this one right. Twins Territory (and Twins Daily), who we pride as passionate, might be challenged to take a more objective look.

 

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[Jham]

G f'n D. I was crossing my fingers this was Rand ball Stu.

[KirbyDome89]

 

G f'n D. I was crossing my fingers this was Rand ball Stu.

I absolutely thought it was after reading the headline.

[AceWrigley]

 

G f'n D. I was crossing my fingers this was Rand ball Stu.

I'm still not sure it's not.

[rghrbek]

I don't want him for two more years after this year.  I would hope the Twins aim higher for once?  Despite his success?

[h2oface]

I sure hope not.

[jud6312]

Seems just stupid enough for this group to do. Clown show, bro.

[MNT1996]

Please no

[Wizard11]

I would welcome this move. I see his performance last year as pretty emblematic of a pitcher recovering from TJ surgery. We have seen a similar recovery path with many TJ pitchers including Joe Nathan and Michael Pineda. Control and command gradually improve. I think it would be a mistake to rule him out. If you remove the month of April last year his results with the Twins improve dramatically. Dude is 300#’s of stoic and less emotive than most Scandinavians. I don’t read an attitude so much as a personality. Other than commenters on TD I have not seen it reported anywhere that he was a malcontent. Just my .02$

[Squirrel]

He was one of the pitchers I wanted in the off-season leading up to the 2018 season. I thought his trajectory was upward moving post surgery. But ... considering his attitude while he was with us, and what it meant to him to be here, not sure I’d want to take a flyer on that. Esp not for 2 more years beyond.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I wanted him when we signd him last year... It does sound like he was one of the one sulking around when he got his 1 year deal... I certainly don't want him bringing that back to the club house... Flip side is that when he was traded, he was performing (let's not forget that this started while he was still here, he just had an ugly spring that made his numbers look bad overall).

 

I woudln't be against it... Lynn has been one of the best pichers in baseball this year. I'm just hoping there would be no repeat of the locker room issues.

[mikelink45]

No - don't go backwards.  Some players do not prosper in certain surroundings.  Do not do this - imagine if he comes back and immediately has two bad days!

[USAFChief]

[Dan In Real Life]

Same comment I left on Twitter...

 

This would be a huge letdown for the #MNTwins. Not just because he wore out his welcome last year, but also because it would be settling for, at best, a B level talent who is already at his highest possible ceiling production-wise.

[TouchEmAllGuy]

Is this Randballs Stu? Please?

[SomeGuy]

Lance Lynn credited his Yankee turnaround to our pitching coach last year. He made an adjustment on where he stood on the rubber and found his location then was traded.

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/lance-lynn-changes-make-interesting-free-agent-c301119518

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't want Lynn - not even a little bit - but I have enough faith in this front office and their approach that if they target Lynn as someone they want to get, there's a good reason for it.

 

With that said, I hope they see absolutely nothing in Lynn.

[Doctor Wu]

Seeing as how the Rangers are unlikely to make the playoffs at this point, the thought of the Twins possibly picking up Lynn crossed my mind earlier in the week ... and I immediately dismissed the idea as ridiculous. But .... I could see it happening. I don't want to see it happen, but it wouldn't shock me. But hey, if they want another starter I sure hope they are aiming higher.

[laloesch]

Mehhhh..... i want no part of this. Aim higher, much higher.

[David HK]

It does seem rather far-fetched as an option, but.... with this FO, who knows?

 

And as for a dour demeanor-- hell, I WANT my starter to have a demeanor as dour as possible when he takes that mound! I want him to wanna beat the snot out of whoever's in that batter's box! 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It does sound like he was one of the one sulking around when he got his 1 year deal... I certainly don't want him bringing that back to the club house... 

I wonder how much of that was scapegoating, though. It was a disappointing season for the whole team in 2018, and it would be pretty natural to lay that at the feet of newcomers/short-timers.

 

That said, I have no idea if he's a good trade target for us now.

[Shaitan]

I'd take him as a rental, but after last year's inconsistency I'm not sure I'd lock into him for any longer than that.

 

While he personally  rubbed me the wrong way, I can only speculate on his clubhouse presence. Anybody is better in a 1st place dugout. That's not on me to decide or know.

[dex8425]

Please no. I don't want him for two more years after 2019. Hard pass. 

[Tom Froemming]

 

Seems just stupid enough for this group to do. Clown show, bro.

Lynn has been one of the best, if not the best pitcher in the American League this season, bro. If being interested in him is stupid, I guess that's a trait I'm looking for in a front office. 

 

I understand that Lynn didn't endear himself to the fan base last year, but is it possible the main reason for his struggles was signing in mid-March? After all, he was a good pitcher before 2018 and is now looking really good again. There's a much larger sample of him being good than there is of him being bad.

 

Also, he's only owed less than $20MM the next two seasons, that could be a massive bargain.

[adorduan]

you know when people make bad business decisions? It's when they let emotions take control...  Don't let that happen here.  If the FO thinks he can help and the cost is reasonable, I have no problem bringing him back.

[Tom Froemming]

Pitcher WAR last 365 days per FanGraphs

1. 8.4 Max Scherzer

2. 8.1 Jacob deGrom

3. 6.4 Lance Lynn and Gerrit Cole

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

It depends on what the FO does about the bullpen, not the rotation. Lynn has been great, and it’s very possible he’s past last year and coming back in ‘19 would be just a continuation of excellent pitching. I hope the FO would vet that out first...

 

I really care about the bullpen and Perez, Gibson, or Pineda aren’t enough of a boost to the pen to move the needle. If it’s Lynn and nothing else, it’s a failure

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Pitcher WAR last 365 days per FanGraphs

1. 8.4 Max Scherzer

2. 8.1 Jacob deGrom

3. 6.4 Lance Lynn and Gerrit Cole

But in RA9-WAR, Lynn is only 22nd by this measure, at 4.7.

 

Lynn's had an outstanding season, but his argument for being near the very top is dependent on both FIP and park factors, probably a bit more than I am comfortable with.

 

Still looks plenty valuable, though, even if he's not top 3 or whatever.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Lance Lynn 2019 actually reminds me a bit of Phil Hughes 2014. Career year in the first year of a modest 3 year deal. (Lynn has the better track record as a starter, though, while Hughes had the age advantage.)

[nicksaviking]

I didn't want Lynn when the Twins signed him last year because all he threw were fastballs, but since it was a one year deal I didn't much care. Since that signing he has mixed in his curve much more than he had in his prior seasons, and that does make him a little more attractive to me. 

 

But nowhere near attractive enough for me not to worry about a chemistry issue though.

 

But every time the Twins sign a guy to a 3 year deal and trade discussions come up, many people here argue that you can't trade a guy you just signed to a multi year deal, it's bad optics and it might stain your reputation with future free agents. I'm not sure if that's true or not, but I'd bet Texas does not trade Lynn, particularly to a team he clearly wasn't happy playing for last year.