Article: Deadline Deal: Twins Trade Brian Dozier to Dodgers

[Tom Froemming]

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Twins and Dodgers are close on a trade that would send Brian Dozier to Los Angeles. Jerry Crasnick of ESPN is reporting the deal is done.

 

And now we have the return: Logan Forsythe, Devin Smeltzer and Luke Raley.Like Dozier, Forsythe is on an expiring contract. His inclusion in the deal seems to be 100 percent about money moving around. Raley was the No. 19 prospect in the Dodgers' org per MLB Pipeline. Smeltzer was not included in LA's top 30.

 

Raley, 23, has spent all season with the Dodgers' Double-A affiliate, and has posted a .275/.345/.477 line while splitting his time between first base and the outfield. He's been particularly hot of late, hitting .303/.366/.529 (.896 OPS) in July. He bats left and throws right. He was drafted in the seventh round back in 2016.

 

Smeltzer, the Dodgers' fifth-round pick back in 2016, has also spent his entire season in Double A. The 22-year-old lefty has a 4.73 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 3.53 K:BB ratio over 83 2/3 innings. He made 14 starts to open this season, but his most recent nine appearances have all been out of the bullpen. In his first two seasons as a pro, Smeltzer averaged 10.1 K/9 over 153 innings, but that figure has dropped to 7.2 K/9 so far this season.

 

Dozier, of course, was set to be a free agent this upcoming season. The Twins could have extended him a qualifying offer, a one-year deal somewhere between $17-$18 million. If Dozier turned that deal down and went on to sign for more than $50 million, the Twins would have received a draft pick in between the first and second rounds. If his eventual deal would have been for less than $50 million, a pretty safe assumption at this point, the Twins would have gotten a pick between the second and third rounds.

 

With this deal the Twins have added another couple of pieces to the system, but if the value Dozier brought back was any indication of what's to come once he reaches free agency, it seems to me at least it would have been likely he and his camp would have accepted the qualifying offer.

 

So what happens now? It'll be interesting to see if Forsythe sticks around as a hopeful waiver trade deadline piece for the Twins to market to other clubs. There's not an obvious replacement for Dozier at second base. The leading option was Ehire Adrianza with Gregorio Petit, Taylor Motter and Nick Gordon all factoring in somehow from Triple A.

 

Click here to view the article

[SF Twins Fan]

 

 

[MN_ExPat]

Well, if that's the case, I wish you well Brian.   Fair winds and following seas!

[Respy]

Dozier has had a down year and we've been bracing for this move, but it will still be unusual to see someone else at second base after Dozier has spent 95% of the Twins' games there since 2013.

[Cap'n Piranha]

Gotta give credit to Falvine for committing. Now get Rodney done.

[bighat]

Gahhh! Let's see what comes back to MN in the deal. Brian deserves a shot and here's hoping he gets it. 

 

Dozier went from a question mark to a Top 50 Twin of all time. 

[AlwaysinModeration]

Logan Forsythe. Ha!

[bighat]

Forsythe part of the return package. Full circle.

[MN_ExPat]

Interesting.

[BoofBonser]

Luke Raley is the Dodgers #19 prospect
1B/OF who has pretty solid numbers at AA this year. 17 HR's, .822 OPS, 

Edited July 31, 2018 by BoofBonser

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Booo

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I give credit to the radio team for giving an extended interview to Dozier after the game last night. It was nice to hear his voice.

 

 

[MangLitch]

HMPFFFF... not sure why you take forsythe back in the package unless it was a must from the dodgers...

 

If so, then that should have enhanced the package. Looks like 19 and unranked.... odd trade. I didn't expect a ton but more than this. Forsythe is just weird. 

[jkcarew]

Good luck to Brian Dozier.  I'd like to see him have a chance at a run in the playoffs, so in that regard, I now have a reason to pull for the Dodgers.

[Monkeypaws]

Falvine doesn't mess around - very glad to see the cycle going around.

 

Dozier certainly has the hair to be a Dodger.

 

 

[bighat]

 

Luke Raley is the Dodgers #19 prospect
1B/OF who has pretty solid numbers AA this year. 17 HR's, .822 OPS, 

 

Raley looks like a good get. A nice feature on him here: http://lastwordonbaseball.com/2018/01/12/dodgers-top-30-prospects-luke-raley-27/

[FunnyPenguin]

Would the comp pick have been a better return?

[BoofBonser]

Forsythe may benefit from a change of scenery... 
Fun Fact albeit a SSS: Forsythe's highest batting average, slugging percentage, and OPS by ballpark in his career is Target Field... .333 AVG, .600 SLG, 1.021 OPS in 19 PA's

 

[Respy]

 

Would the comp pick have been a better return?

 

IMO 1st round pick would have been better.  2nd round pick would have been worse.  They clearly think Dozier wouldn't get $50M this offseason, so they pulled the trigger.  Raley looks like a good get, but I'm shocked they needed to tie in Forsythe to get the deal done.

[MN_ExPat]

Hard to say, but I still think Falvine did a pretty fair job with this deal.   I'm at least curious to see how the new guys pan out.

[rdehring]

 

Would the comp pick have been a better return?

Maybe.  But both guys are at AA and if either makes it, will be here in two years or so.  The comp pick could easily be 5 years out or longer.

[redstorm]

 

Would the comp pick have been a better return?

 

I don't think it's that black and white. You'd be banking on the Twins offering a QO and Dozier declining it. Not sure either of those would have been the case.

[jkcarew]

 

Would the comp pick have been a better return?

Than someone currently hitting 17 home runs at the AA level?  Probably not...and definitely not if you are looking for players with a chance to help in the next 1-3 years.

(Plus a second lottery pick was included.)

[slash129]

 

Forsythe is just weird. 

 

Some days Belisle needs a day off from being the Mojo guy.

[Monkeypaws]

Odd parallel:

Logan Forsythe hit 20 homers his last season in Tampa.

Logan Morrison hit 38 homers his last season in Tampa.

Since leaving TB both Logans have struggled at the plate.

Lesson learned: don't pick up guys from TB named Logan.

[Ex-Iowegian]

So much for getting a look at Gordon at 2nd.

Forsythe coming here makes little sense.

 

Good luck Brian. I hope you make it big time.

[MangLitch]

The Purge: Twins Edition

 

Looks like its finally done. Interesting to see what comes of all of this but in the end it had to be done. I don't feel like we lost anything for the future and maybe a couple of these guys pan out. Who knows.

 

Bottom line is you cant win the lottery without a ticket. Ill take my chances when I am giving up expiring contracts. It's prudent, especially when you are selling in the face of 1.5% odds of making the playoffs. That is a pretty easy exercise in value. If one of these guys is a positive WAR guy, it would be worth all the trades if you are only giving up 1.5% chance this year. 

 

Tough to swallow but prudent.

 

Let the tanking begin. 

[jrod23]

Man, I way over shot by expecting Gavin Lux in return.  Really thought we'd get more.  I have no interest in watching Forsythe.  Do we expect a Welcome Back Motter?  Cause I have no interest there either.

 

Gorged this offseason.  Purged at the deadline.

 

Sad to see Dozier go.  Wish him the best.

[BoofBonser]

 

So much for getting a look at Gordon at 2nd.

Forsythe coming here makes little sense.

 

Good luck Brian. I hope you make it big time.

Gordon is simply not ready, and including Forsythe in the trade echoes that.
He looks lost as of late in Rochester... Collectively in AAA he's batting .214 with only a .243 OBP

[Respy]

Any chance the Twins just dump Forsythe after the trade, similar to what the Rangers did with Austin Jackson?