Article: Berrios Has Been Nearly Flawless Through 4 Starts

[Nick Nelson]

Despite his pristine numbers at every level of the minors, Jose Berrios had his share of detractors in the prospect analyst community.

 

The knock on him was usually the same, and it made sense: When diminutive fly-ball pitchers with no downward plane go up against giant big-league hitters with uppercut swings, the home runs tend to mount.

 

And yet, what was supposed to be the right-hander's biggest weakness has in fact been one of his greatest strengths.After keeping Cleveland hitters in the yard over seven shutout innings on Wednesday night, Berrios has allowed only one home run over four starts this season. Last year, he surrendered only 15 long balls in 145 innings. His 0.93 HR/9 rate was best among Twins starters, and would have placed him among MLB's top 10 if he qualified.

 

Still only 23 years old, Berrios is establishing himself as one of the stingiest pitchers in the game when it comes to homers. It isn't exactly hard to see why.

 

Batters have struggled to catch up to his 94 MPH fastball. The lively two-seamer has so much run it's almost impossible to barrel. And his heavily featured curveball has a case as one of the best pitches in the game today. Berrios delivers it with such consistent zip and tight spin that he pretty much never hangs one.

 

According to the PitchFX data available through Brooks Baseball, opponents have slugged .095 against Berrios' curve this year. Zero ninety five!

 

The batted ball data bears this out as well. Check out the ratio of hard-hit versus soft-hit, and how it's evolved in his three seasons as a big-leaguer:

 

Download attachment: berriosbbdatafg.JPG

So when Berrios isn't striking people out, which he's done at an exceptional rate, he's inducing weak contact like no one else. His soft contact rate is the highest in the league and his hard contact rate is tied with Philadelphia's Aaron Nola as the lowest.

 

Even with the somewhat rough go in his second start (an outing in which he was brilliant through three innings before unraveling in sub-30 conditions), Berrios has been as close to perfect on the hill as you'll ever see. His 1.63 ERA matches up almost exactly with his 1.70 FIP, reinforcing that there's been zero luck involved with his transcendent performance.

 

It's only four starts. We're still in the middle of April. But Jose Berrios is showing every sign of being ready to turn the corner and become an ace for the Twins.

 

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[jmlease1]

He's appointment tv right now. Almost as electric as Liriano before he got hurt. It's a delight to watch him bend Uncle Charlie at a hitter.

 

I'd argue that his ability to avoid walks this season is even more important than his increased stinginess on the HRs, but the combination is fantastic. He really seems to have a handle on his control right now: dude is even cut down on his HBP!

 

Berrios is crushing it right now, and looks every part the ace we've all been dreaming of.

[USNMCPO]

 

He's appointment tv right now. Almost as electric as Liriano before he got hurt. It's a delight to watch him bend Uncle Charlie at a hitter.

 

I'd argue that his ability to avoid walks this season is even more important than his increased stinginess on the HRs, but the combination is fantastic. He really seems to have a handle on his control right now: dude is even cut down on his HBP!

 

Berrios is crushing it right now, and looks every part the ace we've all been dreaming of.

I have been really enthused by his frugality in pitch count. I don't have the data but it seems to me that so far this year, the tendencies are to have a low enough pitch count to go deeper into games. Great sign of development.

[mikelink45]

This is the pitcher we imagined when everyone - including me - wanted him up for the race at the end of the year instead of Duffey.  As it turned out we were premature, but our expectations were realistic.  Berrios is the first really terrific pitcher we have developed since Liriano.  All I can say is keep him healthy and then start bringing up our other young arms - Romero is next as far as future potential and Gonsalves is good to fill out the rotation.  Very exciting potential. 

[Mike Sixel]

So exciting!

[twinssporto]

I have really enjoyed watching Berrios pitch this year.  He looks totally in control while on the mound.  It's almost like he pitches with a little anger...definitely more aggressive than most.  Pitches inside with no fear.  He also works quickly on the mound which is a nice trait to see in a 23 year old pitcher.

 

 

[gunnarthor]

Yeah, he's just been pounding the strike zone. I love the lack of walks. He also seems like he could be a 200 inning pitcher, which is getting rare in this day and age.

 

As an aside, it's just fun to watch him (and the other young guys) after years of waiting for them in the minors. 

[Tom Froemming]

Here are the current MLB leaders in exit velocity against (min. 50 results)

 

80.4 mph Brent Suter 

80.9 mph Jose Berrios

82.1 mph Kyle Hendricks

84.0 mph Jacob deGrom

84.9 mph Clayton Kershaw

85.1 mph Aaron Nola

 

I believe league average is something like 88 mph.

[Vanimal46]

I love watching Berrios pitch, for many reasons that people have already mentioned. He's not afraid to attack hitters, his stuff is fantastic, and he's determined to pitch deep into the ball game when he gets the nod.

 

Because of him I'm losing patience VERY quickly for pitchers like Gibson who still refuse to attack the strike zone.

[raindog]

God, I'm loving his success so far. So refreshing to have a potential ace locked up in the rotation. 

[USAFChief]

Just about the best possible development to the young season.

[slash129]

I hope Molitor keeps Berrios on his normal rest and gives him game 1 against the Yankees.  I've read some notes that Phil Hughes may pitch Sunday against the Rays pushing Odorizzi to Monday at the Bronx.

 

Berrios will be up to the challenge of going into Yankee Stadium on Monday.  I'm not trying to say that Odorizzi isn't, but Berrios is on a different level right now.  Start the series with him. He can keep Stanton cold and get the boobirds going early in the series.

 

 

[TheLeviathan]

I think I have a new favorite player.

[bobs]

Good heavens he was good last night.  No, great.  Happy for him to be able to do that in Puerto Rico.  Future Cy Young!

 

[Blake]

I know it's early, but it's shaping up to be a fun season.

[Nine of twelve]

There's a certain lefty currently on the Dodgers' roster who can become a free agent in November. Coupling him with Berrios at the top of the rotation in conjunction with our up-and-comers in the lineup...Wishful thinking, I realize, but wow, wouldn't that be fun!

[Nine of twelve]

27.2 IP, 29 K, 1 BB. With numbers like that you don't need advanced metrics to know that he's been one of the best pitchers in the game so far this season.

[Blake]

 

I hope Molitor keeps Berrios on his normal rest and gives him game 1 against the Yankees.  I've read some notes that Phil Hughes may pitch Sunday against the Rays pushing Odorizzi to Monday at the Bronx.

 

Berrios will be up to the challenge of going into Yankee Stadium on Monday.  I'm not trying to say that Odorizzi isn't, but Berrios is on a different level right now.  Start the series with him. He can keep Stanton cold and get the boobirds going early in the series.

I'm looking forward to the Yankees because the team this year is definitely not the team of last year.

[Monkeypaws]

My favorite 2018 Berrios stat:

 

27 2/3s innings pitched so far this season, and he's only given up runs in 2 of them.

[Loosey]

Man, if he continues to pitch like this he is going to be fun to watch.  The work I would have to use to describe him right now is "Electric"!

[caninatl04]

I'm looking forward to the Yankees because the team this year is definitely not the team of last year.

Which team is not the same as last year?

[Darius]

Me and a friend were talking about the Twins over a barley soda shortly before the season started. My bold prediction was Berrios will be in the Cy Young conversation. At this rate, he my surpass that wildly irresponsible prediction (at the time) and actually win it.

 

Out if all of the possible extensions being kicked around (Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Kepler, etc), I think the most important piece to keep around long-term is Berrios.

[Drew]

I would love the opportunity to stand in the box as his curveball comes in. It looks so absurd on TV that I can't imagine how hard it would be to comprehend standing there with a bat in your hands. 

 

[wsnydes]

I think what's impressed me most about Berrios this year is his efficiency.  He's going deep into games while striking guys out.  Obviously only walking one guy (also very impressive) helps that, but he's not wasting pitches like guys like Gibson do routinely.  He's definitely the guy I hope the other top rotation prospects in the minors are watching very closely.  

 

Pitching with confidence, in rhythm, with a plan and without fear is a thing of beauty.  It's an absolute pleasure to watch guys like that pitch.  Something that we've only seen from opponents around these parts for quite a while. 

[adorduan]

Although a small sample size, his ability to get through innings with fewer pitches is to the most exciting thing to me.  Having a starter able to consistently go deep in games helps out a bullpen that has some issues.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

This offseason, I thought it might take about two years for Berrios to become better than Darvish. Looks like my guess was off by about two years.

[Eris]

Here is an interesting article written in 2010 on this topic. One thing we can conclude from the article is had Berrios been taller, he would have been drafted earlier.

 

https://sabr.org/research/does-pitcher-s-height-matter

[Thrylos]

 

Here are the current MLB leaders in exit velocity against (min. 50 results)

 

80.4 mph Brent Suter 

80.9 mph Jose Berrios

82.1 mph Kyle Hendricks

84.0 mph Jacob deGrom

84.9 mph Clayton Kershaw

85.1 mph Aaron Nola

 

I believe league average is something like 88 mph.

 

 

This is good stuff, but Berrios is more impressive than this:

 

You have to factor in average pitch velocity as well.  Physics says that the higher the pitch velocity, the higher exit velocity when the ball is hit the same way (think about hitting a ball to a wall, the harder you hit it, the harder it will come back)

 

Brent Suter's average fastball is at 85.9 mph and he throws it 60% of the time, his curveball is 73.6 mph and he throws that about 18% of the time, his change 80.1 mph and he throws it 16.4 % of the time, and finally his slider is at 77.7 mph about 6% of the time

 

Berrios's ave FB is 93.5 mph (61%), curve 82.5 mph (27.6%) and change 84 mph (10.3%)

 

If there were a metric that factors this, Berrios's numbers would be way on top there...

 

[FormerMinnasotan]

Now 4 starts won’t make him an ace, but I think he will end up as a prospect who hit his ceiling. Now there wasn’t any argument in his stuff, it was legit with some concern his fastball would get hammered a bit in the bigs. However Berrios has proven to be absolutely dedicated to improving his game and I feel his success lies more on his work ethic to improve rather than just luck. I love that Berrios is a Twin, knowing how he keeps himself grounded while working on his craft.

[Jordan1212]

I have been a Berrios fan since the day we drafted him, no joke. I always look at draft prospects for football and baseball and I knew that this guy was gonna be someone because his makeup. The "doubters" all throughout his career even before was drafted was this guy wont hold up, he is to small blah blah blah. Well when you have a top flight mlb curve as scouting reports stated and a electric fastball with the chance of a outstanding change that was enough for me to follow him from the minute he signed. He is not a #2-3 starter he will be better than the highly coveted Chris Archer that everyone and there mother wanted us to get except me. Now its just matter of time before we get to see his friend Fernando Romero take the place of Kyle Gibson thats what I cant wait for is to watch these 2 play together its gonna be like those few games we seen Johan Santana and liriano pitch that was like a video game and these 2 could be better thats scary.