A Preliminary Look at the Minnesota Twins' Baseline 2027 Roster and Payroll

[Nick Nelson]

In the chart above, I've laid out what I view as the baseline roster for the Twins in 2027. That is not to say it's the roster I expect to see, but it's the mold they are working from. It includes all of their arbitration eligible players, with the exception of Trevor Larnach, who I just can't see coming back. Other players might be varying levels of unlikely, as we'll cover below, but they all have a case at least. 

In looking this over, a few things stand out. Let's unpack. 

Payroll Will Rise Naturally

Even without any external acquisitions, payroll is set to increase as a byproduct of arbitration raises (as estimated by MLB Trade Rumors), with a starting point around $115 million. That includes the $11 million the Twins are paying Houston for Carlos Correa, but also the $3.75 million they got back from Toronto to help cover Jeff Hoffman's salary.  

It's why Tom Pohlad's proclamation that payroll will rise next year is hardly some bold assertion. It's kinda hard not to go up from their 2026 Opening Day figure of $105 million. The bigger question is how much of an increase we're talking about. I'm setting the over/under at $130 million.

Too Much Starting Pitching

I know, I know, there's no such thing. We learned that the hard way this year. But the concept of Connor Prielipp being crowded out of the rotation to start the season seems outrageous. If healthy, Mick Abel should be there too. And I've currently got Zebby Matthews pegged for the bullpen (where I think he actually has a lot of upside). 

Part of me thinks the Twins could non-tender Bailey Ober, but he proved reasonably effective even with the reduced velocity. It's kind of hard to let a dependable back-end arm — second only to Joe Ryan in innings pitched for Minnesota over the past four years — get away for no return over $7 million.

Either way, you can see why Jeremy Zoll has expressed openness to dealing from the team's starting pitching depth, and it's why I predict Ryan will be moved. 

The Lineup Is Mostly Set

Looking at the projected starting nine, it seems all but certain that eight of the nine players will be slated for the starting lineup, with the possible exception of Emmanuel Rodriguez if he opens in a reserve role. (He has to be on the active roster due to being out of options.)

The glaring exception is first base. Royce Lewis' future with the franchise is in flux, and this position looks like easily the most obvious place to aim for an impact upgrade. We'll be taking a closer look at some of the potential targets in the days to come.

A Solid Base to Work With in the Bullpen

One of the most critical tasks for the Twins in this transitional season was to establish some stability in the bullpen, which was largely devoid of quality talent entering 2026. To their credit, they made some real progress. Hoffman gives them a legit centerpiece to build around, with Yoendrys Gómez and Andrew Morris emerging as solid complementary pieces. 

I'll be curious to see how many of their three arbitration-eligible vets are retained between Anthony Banda, Cole Sands and Tommy Nance. All are reasonable values at their projected salaries, but none offer a ton of upside. With maybe one more high-profile addition, you can really see the makings of a quality relief corps, especially if someone like Matthews or Kendry Rojas converts full-time.

What are you biggest takeaways as you look over the projected 2027 roster as it currently stands? What are the most sensible places to invest? Where would you be aiming to shake things up? Share your thoughts in the comments.

View full article

[TJSweens]

Bringing back Ober would be a huge mistake even if they trade Ryan. He just blocks a better young pitcher. Prielipp, Abel, Matthews; which one do you drop from the rotation to make room for Ober?

[ToddlerHarmon]

Only 4 lineup regulars had wRC+ over 110 last year: Buxton, Keaschall, Jeffers, and Larnach. Meaning everyone else was average or worse offensively. They may have little control over keeping Jeffers, but it seems odd to drop Larnach when the chances of replacing his production in 2027 are slim. As part of a more aggressive rebuild, fine.

I understand the roster squeeze, but Martin seems expendable and Larnach fills a similar, if more limited, role.

[tony&rodney]

This offseason should SHOULD see some transactions. The past habit of sitting out November should give way to several transactions. This thought should drive some change.

It seems hard to believe the club would enter 2027 with four starting pitchers on expiring contracts, especially when one is returning from a lengthy absence due to injury while there are lingering questions about the other three veterans. Only Taj Bradley enters the offseason as a guy to put in ink. Connor Prielipp has shown us enough to earn a spot in the rotation. One of Mick Abel, Kendry Rojas, or Zebby Matthews gets the last slot. I'm guessing Abel with Matthews to the bullpen. 

Royce Lewis would be a reasonable utility player but I think he is gone. Looking over the form, I expect minimum salary to be at $1 miillion. The Twins could support a $140M budget. A few trades might fill in some depth pieces for the position side of the roster and perhaps one bullpen spot. The Twins should have about $40M available to sign three free agents (one position, two bullpen) after subtracting Lewis, Ober, and Ryan. Keeping Ober or Ryan is possible but not both. The Twins need to let Lewis, Larnach, and Wallner continue their careers elsewhere. There should be a fair return from them, not a regular though.

My expectation is that the front office is already sowing the seeds for transactions. Why not soon?

[old nurse]

36 minutes ago, ToddlerHarmon said:

Only 4 lineup regulars had wRC+ over 110 last year: Buxton, Keaschall, Jeffers, and Larnach. Meaning everyone else was average or worse offensively. They may have little control over keeping Jeffers, but it seems odd to drop Larnach when the chances of replacing his production in 2027 are slim. As part of a more aggressive rebuild, fine.

I understand the roster squeeze, but Martin seems expendable and Larnach fills a similar, if more limited, role.

Martin RH bat. Larnach, LH bat. 2 different roles. 

[DJL44]

It would be very Twins-like to trade Joe Ryan and then spend a bunch of money on a relief pitcher while ignoring the right side of the infield. 75 wins again.

[Peter]

Like it but Ober and ryan will be gone-what about able and festa? Both of these guys need to be in starting rotation! 

[mikelink45]

I like Ober for the pen. Martin and Larnach gone, Lewis and Ryan traded. If we are not contending - Lopez traded midseason.  Sands dropped and maybe Nance too.  This is the end of the season payroll, not the beginning of the new season. 

[DJL44]

Martin makes the league minimum and still has a minor league option. Cutting him would be stupid.

[LastOnePicked]

I wonder how inflation and fuel prices impact a mid-market team's expenses as well. I'm sure it's not huge money, but it probably adds up.