Twins 'Having Nightmares' About Last Season's Louis Varland Trade

[Cody Christie]

The Minnesota Twins entered last summer's trade deadline looking to reshape their roster. One year later, one of those decisions continues to loom larger with every dominant outing from Louis Varland.

Varland has blossomed into one of baseball's premier relief pitchers since joining the Toronto Blue Jays. Through 49 appearances this season, the St. Paul native owns a microscopic 0.98 ERA, has already accumulated 3.2 bWAR, converted 23 saves, and earned his first career All-Star selection. Few relievers in baseball have been as valuable.

Minnesota sent Varland and veteran first baseman Ty France to Toronto at last year's trade deadline in exchange for outfielder Alan Roden and pitching prospect Kendrys Rojas. At the time, the Twins believed they were adding long-term value while moving a reliever whose role had fluctuated between the rotation and bullpen.

Now, the deal looks dramatically different. As Minnesota fights to remain in the American League playoff picture, the bullpen has become one of the club's biggest weaknesses. Ironically, the solution may have been wearing a Twins uniform all along.

USA Today's Bob Nightengale recently reported that the organization is still feeling the sting of that decision.

"The Minnesota Twins, who are hanging around the AL Central race, still are having nightmares about trading away reliever Louis Varland a year ago. Varland, their popular homegrown kid, has become an All-Star closer in Toronto. If the Twins had kept him, they might be running away with the AL Central, but instead are desperately scrambling for bullpen help," Nightengale wrote.

It's difficult to argue with that assessment. Varland has been worth 3.62 WPA, second among relievers to San Diego’s Mason Miller. Minnesota’s bullpen as a whole has been worth 1.03 WPA, so adding Varland to that total could be worth multiple wins. 

The Twins have spent much of this season searching for reliable late-inning options and have made bullpen upgrades a clear priority ahead of this year's trade deadline. Meanwhile, Varland has emerged as exactly the type of dominant, swing-and-miss reliever every contender covets.

Of course, player development is rarely linear. It's fair to wonder whether Varland reaches this level had he remained in Minnesota. Sometimes a new organization, a different coaching staff, or a defined role can unlock another level. There's no guarantee his breakout would have happened with the Twins. That nuance doesn't make the trade any easier to swallow.

Toronto acquired a controllable reliever who has developed into one of the game's elite closers, while Minnesota is once again spending valuable deadline resources trying to acquire the type of pitcher it already had. That's a difficult cycle for any front office to explain.

The trade may eventually look more balanced if Roden or Rojas develops into an impact major leaguer. Prospect evaluations often take years before a winner can truly be declared.

For now, though, every scoreless inning Varland throws north of the border serves as another reminder of what the Twins gave away, and why it's a move the organization almost certainly wishes it could have back.

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[Saxophone Joe]

Nightengale needs to call his son for an update on the status of the bullpen. Seems Bobby Sr. hasn't check in on the Twins for months. This article reads like it was from early June. The Varland trade flat out won the game for us on Puckett jersey night.

In my eyes, the bullpen hasn't "lost" us a game in close to two months. Some of us have moved on from the fire sale...

And it was fun to hear Ken Rosenthal just kinda shrug this morning on Foul Territory after the Minter trade, downplaying the likelihood of a Jeffers trade: Well, the Twins are buyers.

 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Yes the trade deadline was painful, yes trading Varland was losing a talented and emotional piece. As of today, though looking back it was all worth it. Some continue to not understand the value of a player like Lackey that occurred because of trading these players. Looking back now with as well as the Twins have done with rebuilding the bullpen, getting a player like Lackey and Bradley - the big picture is this really worked out well for the Twins. Rojas as of today might have more value than Varland if he can show he can be a #2-3 starter.  

 

[alexlegge]

What makes the Varland trade even sillier and more ironic is that nobody is talking about Varland as a potential 2026 trade deadline candidate, even despite the Jays being a huge disappointment and clear seller. Because who in their right mind would trade an excellent reliever who doesn't hit free agency until 2031? 

But hey, maybe the Twins will trade Roden and Rojas back to the Jays for 8 weeks of Kevin Gausman. 

[Linus]

I’m optimistic about Rojas. His potential is through the roof and if he ends up being a good starter with 5 years of control that’s a pretty good deal. I’m disappointed in Roden. He’s not hitting particularly well and his defense has not lived up to his reputation. 

[USAFChief]

28 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Yes the trade deadline was painful, yes trading Varland was losing a talented and emotional piece. As of today, though looking back it was all worth it. Some continue to not understand the value of a player like Lackey that occurred because of trading these players. Looking back now with as well as the Twins have done with rebuilding the bullpen, getting a player like Lackey and Bradley - the big picture is this really worked out well for the Twins. Rojas as of today might have more value than Varland if he can show he can be a #2-3 starter.  

 

First of all, Lackey is completely, 100 percent not related to Varland.

 

Secondly, Lackey has only potential value, like any prospect. He has provided zero actual tangible value to the Minnesota Twins. None. Zip. Zilch. Negative value, actually, since he cost them millions of dollars.

 

The trade is currently a disaster. 

Edited 2 hours ago by USAFChief

[clone52]

47 minutes ago, Saxophone Joe said:

Nightengale needs to call his son for an update on the status of the bullpen. Seems Bobby Sr. hasn't check in on the Twins for months. This article reads like it was from early June. The Varland trade flat out won the game for us on Puckett jersey night.

In my eyes, the bullpen hasn't "lost" us a game in close to two months. Some of us have moved on from the fire sale...

And it was fun to hear Ken Rosenthal just kinda shrug this morning on Foul Territory after the Minter trade, downplaying the likelihood of a Jeffers trade: Well, the Twins are buyers.

 

Bullpen has been really good lately, but what a stretch to the Varland trade isn't a disaster so far.  Rojas turning into a Top 1-2 starter is the only way I'll feel better about it.

[clone52]

33 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Yes the trade deadline was painful, yes trading Varland was losing a talented and emotional piece. As of today, though looking back it was all worth it. Some continue to not understand the value of a player like Lackey that occurred because of trading these players. Looking back now with as well as the Twins have done with rebuilding the bullpen, getting a player like Lackey and Bradley - the big picture is this really worked out well for the Twins. Rojas as of today might have more value than Varland if he can show he can be a #2-3 starter.  

 

Yeah, Twins got Lackey because of a lucky lottery.  If the Twins made every trade except Varland last year, they still probably get him.

Every other trade was defensible in some way.  The only way the Varland trade was defensible is if they were certain Rojas was the next Johan Santana.  He might be, but not likely.

Rojas as of today has not shown he can be a #2-3 starter, so that sentence makes no sense.  In a year or 2, he may show that and in retrospect we'll view this trade fondly

[tony&rodney]

Let bygones be bygones. It doesn't matter who is right or wrong, the future is now and the past is gone.

We all loved Louis Varland and still do. I'm excited to see what Kendry Rojas can become. He is capable of shutting down any team for three innings now and there is still plenty of improvement left in his game. I'm not sure what to think about Alan Roden. Maybe he is the throw-in on a consequential trade this Monday.

Sure the trade was a disaster but I have moved on and can get behind Rojas and Roden as decent players right now. I'm also hopeful the Twins are not shy about taking further gambles. 

[nicksaviking]

I have to say, the apostrophes (note: not quotation marks) around 'Having Nightmares' almost makes it sound like someone from the Twins provided that statement on the record and not Bob Nightengale.

In any case, it wasn't a good trade. But I am still pretty excited about Rojas. Tons of the Twins previous 'bad trades' had next to no redeeming values, but there's a good chance that even if they 'lose' this one, it won't be a complete bust.

 

[clone52]

Out of curiousity, would anyone make this trade today?

Varland for Dasan Hill and Hendry Mendez?

[jaimedude]

I like the players we got for Varland in Roden and Rojas. That said wish the Twins had kept Luis Varland. 

[90stwinskid]

If the Varland trade is ever going to pay off, we're going to have to wait for a long, long time for that to happen.

Rojas has looked better lately, but man, it's hard not to feel salty when we could have had Varland this whole time.

 

[DataNerd]

We definitely would take back the Varland trade right now, but we are way ahead in the Jax trade and the Duran trade is up in the air (Tait looks much worse, Abel much better).  I'm happy with what we got for those 3 as a whole, and I'm not sure there was a way to know that Varland would break out while Jax would regress.

[The Great Hambino]

44 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

First of all, Lackey is completely, 100 percent not related to Varland.

 

Secondly, Lackey has only potential value, like any prospect. He has provided zero actual tangible value to the Minnesota Twins. None. Zip. Zilch. Negative value, actually, since he cost them millions of dollars.

 

The trade is currently a disaster. 

The idea that the Varland trade got them Lackey is absurd

First of all, their tank didn't guarantee them anything.  It got them marginally improved odds in what is a fairly flat draft lottery.  Note that the Twins still picked behind the Rays, a team that did not give up on their season and severely hamper the following season by trading away over a third of the roster.

Second of all, even if you do buy that tanking improved their draft odds ... the tank was already complete before the Varland trade.  All the other trades had already been executed - their "tank" had been secured.  The Varland trade was either a) a fairly substantial bet on the promise of Rojas, b) Falvey getting high on his own supply in the midst of a flurry of trade activity, or c) all of the above.  Any draft-odds benefit of the Varland trade alone was barely a rounding error

[LA Vikes Fan]

47 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Let bygones be bygones. It doesn't matter who is right or wrong, the future is now and the past is gone.

We all loved Louis Varland and still do. I'm excited to see what Kendry Rojas can become. He is capable of shutting down any team for three innings now and there is still plenty of improvement left in his game. I'm not sure what to think about Alan Roden. Maybe he is the throw-in on a consequential trade this Monday.

Sure the trade was a disaster but I have moved on and can get behind Rojas and Roden as decent players right now. I'm also hopeful the Twins are not shy about taking further gambles. 

This is the best take. You pay your money, you take your chances. Will this be a good trade? Ask again in 2028 and we should know. Its a good trade if Rojas is a #2 or #3 starter, even better if  Roden is a contributing regular or part of a trade for one regardless of how well Louie pitches. If not and Louie continues this well, bad deal for us. let's talk about the trade then. 

[Craig Arko]

It seems more likely Twins Daily is having nightmares than the Twins organization.