Walker Jenkins's Debut May Be Further Away Than You Think

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

I mean, Roden should be up now over Fedko. 100%.

Fedko another bring to MLB but don't play him player and block another guy in AAA at the same time.

Brilliant roster construction.

[chpettit19]

10 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

How many A or A+ pitchers were acquired at the deadline last year? Were there any?

And I did say that mostly because of Matthew Leach's article at MLB.com the other day, where he floated the idea that the Twins could sell some players, like Larnach, but also attempt to bring in some bullpen help.

MLB for MLB trades rarely happen. A team trading for Larnach is looking to win this year, they're not likely to trade useful bullpen pieces in that situation. The buy and sell dance is trading prospects for bullpen help while trading Larnach types for prospects to replace the ones you traded.

[mnfireman]

27 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

How many A or A+ pitchers were acquired at the deadline last year? Were there any?

And I did say that mostly because of Matthew Leach's article at MLB.com the other day, where he floated the idea that the Twins could sell some players, like Larnach, but also attempt to bring in some bullpen help.

Alex Call (2), Mike Yaztrzemski, Miguel Andujar, and Cedrick Mullins (3) were the examples I found closest to Larnach.

I know Mullins is a CF, which is probably why he returned 3 A+ pitchers even while having a down year, that and he was traded to the Mets, who were evidently willing to overpay.

Willi Castro returned 2 AA pitchers, Chicago was also willing to overpay.

Bader was having a career resurgence, but only returned a AA OF and a young pitcher that was pitching in the Dominican Summer League.

Stewart, the oft-injured RP, returned Outman.

I don't see Larnach bringing back a MLB RP, much less one that will impact the teams BP down the stretch.

[bean5302]

 

Quote

Walker Jenkins, has largely dominated the minor leagues.

Seems pretty generous given Jenkins' often slow starts, quick promotions after short bursts of raking, and his relatively pedestrian results at AAA.

Jenkins is probably better than absolute replacement level as a starting CF right now if he's got as much or more speed than advertised, but do the Twins want to start his clock burning time as a replacement+ player before he gets more experience and is potentially worth the starting job? As a corner OF, he might be able to duplicate a Kepler-like performance with a close to league average bat putting together 2 WAR campaigns with defense.

 

 

[HerbieFan]

If he stays healthy and continues to play well I think we see him after the trade deadline.

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 hour ago, mnfireman said:

Alex Call (2), Mike Yaztrzemski, Miguel Andujar, and Cedrick Mullins (3) were the examples I found closest to Larnach.

I know Mullins is a CF, which is probably why he returned 3 A+ pitchers even while having a down year, that and he was traded to the Mets, who were evidently willing to overpay.

Willi Castro returned 2 AA pitchers, Chicago was also willing to overpay.

Bader was having a career resurgence, but only returned a AA OF and a young pitcher that was pitching in the Dominican Summer League.

Stewart, the oft-injured RP, returned Outman.

I don't see Larnach bringing back a MLB RP, much less one that will impact the teams BP down the stretch.

I just meant, they didn't acquire, the Twins, any pitchers like you had mentioned.

I also think the Twins could thread a needle where they trade players like Jeffers and Larnach and even Ryan for different levels of returns while also adding a couple of bullpen pieces. At least that path is feasible.

[mnfireman]

3 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I just meant, they didn't acquire, the Twins, any pitchers like you had mentioned.

I also think the Twins could thread a needle where they trade players like Jeffers and Larnach and even Ryan for different levels of returns while also adding a couple of bullpen pieces. At least that path is feasible.

I get it, we all want a good return for our players, I was just pointing out what happened in MLB at last year's deadline, including the return the Twins got for a couple of players that were similar to Larnach. 

The best return will be for Jeffers, especially if the Yankees are involved and the Twins can maybe get a bidding war started.

Ryan will have to significantly improve upon his near 5.00 ERA for the month of June to get a good/decent return, but if the Twins are still contenders they may decide to keep him - tearing down the rotation to build a BP makes no sense.

[JADBP]

7 hours ago, Dman said:

While I tend to agree with the article I still think he controls his own destiny.  If he goes on a tear the next couple of months I could see them adding him. I don't think the lockout affects him too much even if on the 40 man.  He'll still be able to hit and play baseball when they come back.

He's gonna have to really prove he is ready first though as the 40 man has too many outfielders on it already.  Granted pretty easy to move on from some of them.  As noted he doesn't "need" to be added until the end of 2027.  I'd say the odds are they don't add him, but if he forces their hand that could change IMO.

 

Other than Buxton, which of these OFers are really part of our long term plans????  Its gonna be Gonzales, Emma and Jenkins in the OF.  I say, get them started as soon as possible!  Choose a 4th OFer from the either Roden or Mendez.  But, come on...why are we hanging on to the others?  Let's start trimming the excess this trade season and accept the obvious.  There is no reason on this earth to keep putting Larnach or Wallner in the OF if we have these talented players available. 

 

[HarmonK03]

44 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Ryan will have to significantly improve upon his near 5.00 ERA for the month of June to get a good/decent return, but if the Twins are still contenders they may decide to keep him - tearing down the rotation to build a BP makes no sense.

One month is not going to change his value.  All reports say he will be one of the more sought after free agents if he is made available.  Get over his outing on Tuesday, it happens.

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 hour ago, mnfireman said:

I get it, we all want a good return for our players, I was just pointing out what happened in MLB at last year's deadline, including the return the Twins got for a couple of players that were similar to Larnach. 

The best return will be for Jeffers, especially if the Yankees are involved and the Twins can maybe get a bidding war started.

Ryan will have to significantly improve upon his near 5.00 ERA for the month of June to get a good/decent return, but if the Twins are still contenders they may decide to keep him - tearing down the rotation to build a BP makes no sense.

Also makes me think they should and could make a bunch of aaa and aaaa outfielders available for any type of movement. But it will be interesting to watch what or how many moves they will actually make. I just hope they do pick a lane and are active

[KBJ1]

Yeah, ok, I get it. BUT, if they trade a couple guys ahead of him timeline wise - Walner, Roden, Emma, etc AND get bullpen help, bring up Culpepper AND are in contention - bring him up now! This kid is ready!

[jkcarew]

Worse case scenario…they play 70-ish games next year?

Development-wise, I’d take 50 games of MLB this year, and 60 next year over another 1.5 seasons of AAA. He isn’t going to make the club worse. And need to do what they can to thin the veteran position-player hurd at the deadline…even if they end up doing a little buying for the bullpen.

Having said that, right now I’d be somewhat happy if he plays 110 games PERIOD, over the next 15 months.

[Vanimal46]

2 hours ago, mnfireman said:

Ryan will have to significantly improve upon his near 5.00 ERA for the month of June to get a good/decent return, but if the Twins are still contenders they may decide to keep him

Joe Ryan will be the #2 pitcher available after Tarik Skubal this trade deadline. He's gonna get a haul. 

[Czelgert]

The Twins delay promotion of players way too long in hopes of retaining control of them through the most years possible.  While this may seem smart, it stunts their growth.  Despite having a highly graded minor league system, how many successful position players has the organization churned out in the last five years?  How many flameout after the league makes its first adjustment?  Promote players when they show requisite talent and worry about paying them IF they succeed.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

11 hours ago, SarasotaBill said:

Jenkins needs to stay at AA until next year.

He needs to develop and can't afford to lose a big portion of next season as well.

Do you mean AAA?

[AlLagoon]

I'd like to see Jenkins, Culpepper and E-Rod as a cohort. Call em up in September to get their feet wet. Think Hrbek, Gaetti, Brunansky.: I forgot how long those guys were their first full season: 22 ,23 ,21 . Viola also debuted in 82 as a 22 year old.

Next year, there should be roster spots open. for all of them.

[mikelink45]

If he is ready bring him up.  We have watched Griffey and Trout and others succeed at 21 - the trend in MLB the last few years is to get prospects to the majors quicker.  If he is prone to injury it is just as likely i the minors as the majors.  So lets get his bat where it belongs in Minneapolis.  

[twinstalker]

Oof.  I don't know how you bring him up with the lockout looming.  Despite Boras repping him, I'd offer him for this year and the next eight and see if the lockout leverage doesn't finally convince a Boras client.  Make the 7th and 8th years team options with substantial buyouts, and maybe Boras goes for it.  Otherwise, Jenkins could be under team control anyway for the next 7 years if the Twins delay.

[weitz41]

15 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

MLB for MLB trades rarely happen. A team trading for Larnach is looking to win this year, they're not likely to trade useful bullpen pieces in that situation. The buy and sell dance is trading prospects for bullpen help while trading Larnach types for prospects to replace the ones you traded.

Keep in mind a good DP's #5 arm is #3 to #2 in the Twins BP. That sort of BP guy may be gettable. 

I'm enjoying this season much more than I expected in March. But this can't quite get to .500 thing and how poor the AL is this season is going to make the trade deadline tricky.

If they buy, I'd guess 2027 is when he's added. If the sell, late august call up. Straddle the line, 2027.

[TNtwins85]

20 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Making roster decisions based on a hypothetical work stoppage is how bad teams remain bad. 

If he’s doing what a healthy Walker Jenkins has tended to do in his minor league career to this point and he’s not up by say August 4th then grab the pitchforks. He doesn’t need anymore seasoning regardless if the Twins are in it or not. Right now he’s your best RF/LF option defensively and can hold his own at the dish the same if not better than most not named Buxton, or Larnach. 

[TNtwins85]

12 hours ago, KBJ1 said:

Yeah, ok, I get it. BUT, if they trade a couple guys ahead of him timeline wise - Walner, Roden, Emma, etc AND get bullpen help, bring up Culpepper AND are in contention - bring him up now! This kid is ready!

Agreed. At this point if you can get Erod healthy before the deadline and you can package him and another OFer to A. Clear a path for some other guys and B. Get yourself a controllable/ higher upside MLB ready pitcher I think you do it. A. As shown this year they need more pitching. B. Even though I like Erod I’m over the injuries and I question whether his skills hold up in MLB. C. They just have to clear this glut of non elite stagnant OFers to clear a path for some of these other guys.

[Dman]

13 hours ago, JADBP said:

Other than Buxton, which of these OFers are really part of our long term plans????  Its gonna be Gonzales, Emma and Jenkins in the OF.  I say, get them started as soon as possible!  Choose a 4th OFer from the either Roden or Mendez.  But, come on...why are we hanging on to the others?  Let's start trimming the excess this trade season and accept the obvious.  There is no reason on this earth to keep putting Larnach or Wallner in the OF if we have these talented players available. 

 

Well I did say there were too many and that they could be easily replaced, not that I love most of them. 

Fedko is Obviously 4th outfielder material and could be gone whenever they choose.  I don't see Gonzalez or Mendez as true outfielders as their defense isn't good enough.  Kind of the same for Larnach and Wallner and they are getting older and kept around for the bat not defense.  Martin was a bit Jekyl and Hyde this year, but still projects more as a 4th outfielder.  That leaves me with Buxton, Kreidler, Roden and Rodriguez as the likely best combination of defense and offensive potential left. 

So yeah to your point they can easily make room and Jenkins has more potential than anyone on that list not named Buxton.  Still they should also try and find value for any of those assets they deem less worthy if they can and not just throw them away.  Several that have defensive limitations could be used for their bats.  It takes a lot of time, money and effort to get to the level of talent to even be on a 40 man.

But your point stands that given Jenkins is the next best talent to Buxton that won't be what stops them from adding him to the 40 man.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, weitz41 said:

Keep in mind a good DP's #5 arm is #3 to #2 in the Twins BP. That sort of BP guy may be gettable. 

I'm enjoying this season much more than I expected in March. But this can't quite get to .500 thing and how poor the AL is this season is going to make the trade deadline tricky.

If they buy, I'd guess 2027 is when he's added. If the sell, late august call up. Straddle the line, 2027.

I'm sure there are some examples, but I can't think of any off the top of my head of teams in the modern BP era trading any of their top 5 bullpen arms in a year they're trying to win. They can get bullpen arms, but not likely from teams that would be interested in Bell or Larnach types. The teams trading MLB talent overwhelmingly look for future assets in return. Teams trading for MLB talent overwhelmingly give up future assets. MLB for MLB at the deadline is incredibly rare.

I wouldn't be surprised at all to not see him up until 2027 no matter what they do at the deadline. As others have stated, they have other OFers who they'd likely call up first. Not how I'd do it, but it wouldn't surprise me at all.

[DJL44]

18 hours ago, DocBauer said:

This REALLY disturbs me!

I have watched DECADES of MLB when the player roster was 15 or 14 men when the roster was only set at 25. That includes AL teams having a DH and NL teams sometimes employing a special PH. "Back in the day" Kelly and Gardenhire...just for Twins examples...never had a problem utilizing their full player roster.

So why in hell do the Twins CONTINUE to play with a 12 1/2 man roster? Fedko just might not be a ML player. But he's at least earned the opportunity. So he's supposed to continue this idea of being a PR, and potential PH, who only starts against LHP? He's faced RHP 75% of his career for goodness sake. But his promotion is to ONLY replace Outman? Well then you should just kept Outman for goodness sake!

No offense to Kreidler in CF filling in for Buxton, but maybe Fedko could play some CF and let Kreidler play SS, where he's better than Gray? 

Again, maybe Fedko just isn't a ML ballplayer. But how the hell do you know unless he gets an actual opportunity?

So if Roden is brought up tomorrow, does he take Fedko's role as a never used PR/PH? What about Mendez and Gonzalez? NOT utilizing your ENTIRE roster is mismanagement. If your talent is so slim that the 13th man can only fill a very small role, then you've mismanaged your roster.

This is just beyond frustrating to me!

Sorry for the thread hijack.

For the Houston series, Buxton was hurt. They’re not going to use the backup C. They had two backups and wouldn’t use Fedko.

[tony&rodney]

25 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I wouldn't be surprised at all to not see him up until 2027 no matter what they do at the deadline. As others have stated, they have other OFers who they'd likely call up first. Not how I'd do it, but it wouldn't surprise me at all.

The Twins, seemingly, have had a process in the past which would not promote Walker Jenkins ahead of Alan Roden, Emmanuel Rodriguez, or others. Is that what you are suggesting? When you state, "Not how I'd do it ...", I'm wondering what would you do.

My instincts tell me the Twins are moving away from DH types to improve the defense.roster/team. Walker Jenkins needs to show he is ready. If he hits in July, I would bring him up. If the Twins suddenly created an opening via a transaction of someone currently receiving regular playing time (that is not Fedko or even Martin) sooner than August, I would bring him up. Talent plays. He is a little raw but Jenkins will not be overwhelmed.

What would you do?

[D.C Twins]

20 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

There's a new(ish) calculation in the mix. Under the current CBA, teams get an extra draft pick if a player is on the roster the entire season and wins Rookie of the Year. That means it potentially benefits teams to make sure that a highly regarded player doesn't lose rookie status.

One of the ways a player loses rookie status is by spending more than 45 days on the active roster. Last year, for example, the Orioles brought up Samuel Basallo about 20 minutes after they reached that point in the season.

Unless he comes up very soon for significantly extended run, it's likely he won't come up before the point at which 45 days of service time remain in the season, which is something like August 14. 

Great point!

[Larry Janisewski]

23 hours ago, SarasotaBill said:

Jenkins needs to stay at AA until next year.

He needs to develop and can't afford to lose a big portion of next season as well.

He is at AAA in St. Paul.

[bean5302]

17 hours ago, JADBP said:

Other than Buxton, which of these OFers are really part of our long term plans????  Its gonna be Gonzales, Emma and Jenkins in the OF...

 

Gonzalez is a low-ranking prospect at this point. He can't play defense and he's really struggling at the plate. He'd already fallen far down the Twins prospect lists before last year's rebound campaign, but he's simply not making good contact. Good players rarely have multiple year hiccups. Before we get into the "oh, he's only 22!!!!" stuff, he's an 6 year MiLB veteran who had to be added to the 40 man to protect him from the Rule 5, and he's burning options. It's nothing like a 20 year old drafted out of college in year 2 at AAA.

Emma can't stay on the field with an approach which doesn't obviously translate to the MLB level, and the Twins agree having burned all 3 options without a single game in the big show. The Twins aren't building around that, though he certainly could have a breakthrough. I think he's either going to be very good or unplayable.

Roden has no business in AAA anymore. He should be playing every day at the MLB level, but again, you're talking about a guy who hasn't forced his way into MLB playing time yet at age 26 so betting on him is a little iffy.

Wallner is clearly far down the depth chart. He's been raking for months in AAA, but the Twins have apparently seen enough.

Jenkins is definitely in the long term plans, though. That's it. 

[chpettit19]

4 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins, seemingly, have had a process in the past which would not promote Walker Jenkins ahead of Alan Roden, Emmanuel Rodriguez, or others. Is that what you are suggesting? When you state, "Not how I'd do it ...", I'm wondering what would you do.

My instincts tell me the Twins are moving away from DH types to improve the defense.roster/team. Walker Jenkins needs to show he is ready. If he hits in July, I would bring him up. If the Twins suddenly created an opening via a transaction of someone currently receiving regular playing time (that is not Fedko or even Martin) sooner than August, I would bring him up. Talent plays. He is a little raw but Jenkins will not be overwhelmed.

What would you do?

He'd be a September call-up for me. Roden, Wallner, and Rodriguez (if he's ever healthy) would get the first lefty call-ups for me.

They've been doing the "we won't know what we have with this 26+ year-old player, so we have to keep them around and find out" dance with guys for years. It's held them back. Roden is 26. I want to get a look at him and decide what role I think he can play on an actually good MLB team. There's value in having depth guys if that's all Roden is, but he's 26 and they need to start getting real data on all these guys. I'd start with him.

I don't know where exactly Wallner is at on the service time situation, but he was supposed to be arb eligible next year for the first time. I'm not going into 2027 with him, or paying him arbitration, if he can't come back and mash. I need to get an answer on him.

I'm not going into 2027 with Emma out of options and never having seen a major league pitch if I can help it. If he's healthy, he's getting MLB ABs for me.

Depending on the spot that opens up, I may call up Gonzalez before Jenkins. Or Mendez. If I have Roden-Buxton-Emma across the outfield and want to check out DH types more, Gonzalez and Mendez would be my call since they're already on the 40-man. 

But, once we get to September and I have an extra roster spot, Jenkins would be my call-up and he'd start getting his feet wet then. I want data on everyone, though, and I'd start with the guys who are already burning option years or are older. I would've started with them on opening day, though, so I don't think I'm using the same playbook as the Twins.