What Should the Twins Do About Their Bullpen?

[rdehring]

Great read, Nick.  The pen is biggest problem facing the Twins if they want to compete this year or next.  For that reason, I believe they should approach this year's deadline with one goal in mind, begin fixing the pen. 

Although a total fix is near impossible, they likely will have a couple players who can or should be traded.  Players who can bring back a good, young bullpen arm with big league experience.  Guys doing well with a year or two experience.  If Ryan Jeffers won't sign an extension he must be dealt, especially now that Caratini/Jackson are doing so well.  Jeffers should have enough value to bring back a solid young reliever. 

The Twins strength is their depth of corner outfielders.  Beginning to question whether trading Larnach is a good option, especially if they continue to compete for a playoff spot this year.  If not Larnach, someone needs to be moved.  With several prospects deserving the call, the team can't keep both Martin and Keaschall.  My belief is that Keaschall has too much promise to go, especially after last night's performance at the plate and in right field.  So, I would opt for Martin being the one leaving.  Can he bring back a solid young reliever?  Probably not, but with a medium prospect added, maybe.  That leaves Wallner, who I believe should only return to the Twins if he continues hitting very well in St. Paul and the DH spot is available.  He and a prospect won't bring back a top reliever, but maybe one better than what they now trot out every other day.

 

[saviking]

C J CULPEPPER

PEREDES 

 

[LA Vikes Fan]

Well analyzed by Nick as usual. I agree with his bottom line. We basically have two quality relievers in Gomez and Morris, two adequate guys that can be in the back half of a decent bullpen in Orze and Rogers, an unknown in Raya, and three guys who really should be in AAA most of the season coming up only as necessary for injuries. That makes it hard to go on a long winning streak.
 

I think the strategy is pretty obvious. We have a month before the trade deadline. We need to use that time to see whether there’s any reinforcements coming internally. That means getting CJ Culpepper, Rozek, Rojas, and maybe even Rashi up to the Twins. If we have reinforcements, those are probably the only possible guys along with Paredes if Ober comes back to the rotation and nobody else gets hurt.. Then by late July, we have some information about who we have, whether the team has a chance to be a dark horse WC contender, and how desperate the need. Jeffers will be traded if he’s healthy. We have to get one younger established MLB reliever as part of the return. If we can we also want to get one higher ceiling AAA starting pitching prospect that we can put in the bullpan for the rest of the year as well. We also look at some lower level trades that might let us a decent relief pitcher but I don’t hold out a lot of hope for anything more than that because of who we have to trade. Guys like Larnach and Bell might get you a pretty good sixth or seventh inning guy, but they’re not gonna get you quality late inning  relief help. We also have to pray that neither Gomez or Morris gets hurt.

i’m against trading Ryan before the off-season and I don’t think they will trade Ryan unless we fall out of whatever one defines as contention. And frankly, if we fall out of contention to get to the 85 wins or so it will take to be a wildcard this year, then I don’t think trading for relief help matters. In that case, trade Jeffers, Ryan, Bell, and Larnach for the highest quality baseball players you can get regardless of what position they play.

 

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

The only teams that would be willing to trade a "capable" arm are teams that are building for the future.  And those teams sure ain't looking at Larnach, Bell, Wallner, or Lewis as their future saviors.  They would want at least one of Rodriguez, Culpepper, or Gonzales and an A ball pitcher.  As the Twins new GM, I'm not making that sort of trade.

Exactly. Any team looking to add Larnach/Bell/Wallner to help this year's team isn't going to trade away an MLB reliever. 

[SarasotaBill]

What ever trade that the Twins do this year should be about 2027 and later.

No trades for anything helping for 2026.

You need to be selective about non-40 roster call ups in 2026 because of the pending strike/lock-out.

Enjoy 2026 for development of your core players.

Trade Jeffers, Larnach, and Bell.

Try to extend Ryan. Only trade him if he brings back a top 10 prospect in MLB plus more. It has to be a lopsided deal.

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

One would have thought that the last two weeks plus would have moved them to clear “sell” territory, but they’ve played .600 baseball in the last 15 games (including nine road games). I fear that they will be paralyzed into inactivity at the break, which might be worse than a selloff. 

I am concerned with this as well. Tom P going full Arte Moreno and chasing 80 wins this year only to prolong the rebuild. 

[soyouresayingtheresachance]

I like Gomez and Morris. After that, it gets difficult. 

Adams needs to be strictly a 1 inning guy. Without looking it up, I feel like most of the runs he gives up is after hes sent back out for more than 1 inning of work. 

Laweryson and Funderburk gotta go. 

When Ober comes back, give Paredes a look in the pen. Analytics dont look great, but so far hes been getting it done. 

Having Rojas come up would help. Sands should be better if he can get healthy. 

If it was my choice, Id be on the phone with Boston and trying to pry away Aroldis Chapman. Shutdown closer and under contract for next season. I would overpay for him if I had the opportunity. He is incredibly effective, reliable, and consistent. It allows Gomez to have the 8th. Morris the 7th. Obviously more work than that would be needed, but IMO its a heck of a start. Acquire another upgrade or 2 and the BP looks a lot better. 

The terrible defense has a little to do with how bad the BP performs, too. For example yesterday's game against Houston. Laweryson would've got through that inning clean without the error being committed. Im hoping that the trade deadline will also clear out 1 or 2 of the poor defenders. Having Kriedler at SS everyday would help. Gray has been terrible. Keaschall to RF should help hide his poor defense a little, i hope. He made a nice catch yesterday. Lee at 3rd has been better than him at SS. Subtracting Larnach fron LF would help the defense too. Roden or any of the outfield waiting in AAA are all good on defense. 

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Last year's sell-off is just so frustrating. If they would have kept Lou and Duran, they're in first place right now. I can understand wanting to get out of Correa's deal but they threw the baby out with the bathwater. There's a universe where Abel gets and stays healthy and where Rojas finds his command and all is forgiven. But those two things remain lottery tickets as opposed to two 'ace' closers.

Put me in the camp of wanting to keep Ryan. I still want to see what the new CBA looks like and if there's any type of salary floor or something that would make keeping Ryan long-term more feasible for the Twins.

Jeffers is likely gone. Caratini's play of late coupled with Jeffers' comments last summer, and I think the Twins are more than happy to send him packing. If he is going to the Yankees, there's young talent to be had there - I just hope the Twins identify the right prospects.

Larnach is trickier, IMHO. You would definitely be selling high but even with his recent hot streak, how robust is the market? If you're not getting back a legitimate prospect, or a controllable arm for the pen, just hold onto him. 

Duran and Varland do not add 5 wins this year to the Twins to put them into a precarious first place in the division. The Twins have blown 11 saves so far (16th in MLB).

The Twins relievers have pitched 317.0 innings, Duran and Varland combined have 70 IP so less than 25% of all innings the Twins relievers have pitched. Meaning other Twins relievers (who are bad) still have to cover 247 innings.

Duran and Varland in the bullpen probably makes the Twins viable as a potential back end playoff team auto-scheduled for a quick exit. I guess I don't care if the Twins are a 1 and done playoff team. Been there. Done that for 20 years now.

[mickster]

1 hour ago, rdehring said:

Great read, Nick.  The pen is biggest problem facing the Twins if they want to compete this year or next.  For that reason, I believe they should approach this year's deadline with one goal in mind, begin fixing the pen. 

Although a total fix is near impossible, they likely will have a couple players who can or should be traded.  Players who can bring back a good, young bullpen arm with big league experience.  Guys doing well with a year or two experience.  If Ryan Jeffers won't sign an extension he must be dealt, especially now that Caratini/Jackson are doing so well.  Jeffers should have enough value to bring back a solid young reliever. 

The Twins strength is their depth of corner outfielders.  Beginning to question whether trading Larnach is a good option, especially if they continue to compete for a playoff spot this year.  If not Larnach, someone needs to be moved.  With several prospects deserving the call, the team can't keep both Martin and Keaschall.  My belief is that Keaschall has too much promise to go, especially after last night's performance at the plate and in right field.  So, I would opt for Martin being the one leaving.  Can he bring back a solid young reliever?  Probably not, but with a medium prospect added, maybe.  That leaves Wallner, who I believe should only return to the Twins if he continues hitting very well in St. Paul and the DH spot is available.  He and a prospect won't bring back a top reliever, but maybe one better than what they now trot out every other day.

 

I am all for keeping both Larnach and Keaschall.   Martin and Wallner can be traded, but I would go bigger and dangle Erod to see if we can bring back an established non-rental reliever.

[Vanimal46]

11 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Duran and Varland do not add 5 wins this year to the Twins to put them into a precarious first place in the division. The Twins have blown 11 saves so far (16th in MLB).

The Twins relievers have pitched 317.0 innings, Duran and Varland combined have 70 IP so less than 25% of all innings the Twins relievers have pitched. Meaning other Twins relievers (who are bad) still have to cover 247 innings.

Duran and Varland in the bullpen probably makes the Twins viable as a potential back end playoff team auto-scheduled for a quick exit. I guess I don't care if the Twins are a 1 and done playoff team. Been there. Done that for 20 years now.

I think a lot of people look at Duran and Varland's WAR and subtract our negative WAR relievers to come to that conclusion of winning 5 extra games. It's not that easy of a calculation. Not to mention, their ERAs wouldn't be this pristine behind our rag tag defense. 

[4twinsJA]

Twins should be sellers at deadline. Wishlist includes potential high leverage relief pitcher. Twins should not be trading prospects for established bullpen help, that won't move the needle for playoff chances this year. 

[USAFChief]

4 hours ago, mike8791 said:

 Unfortunately, based on his 5 months as GM, there is little reason to believe Zoll has the chops to make wise trades - ones that can improve the team this year without hurting the longer term rebuild to contention.  

Perhaps a nitpic, perhaps not..

Jeremy Zoll has been the Twins GM since Nov 2024.

[Coach Wheels]

4 hours ago, Czelgert said:

The trade deadline is organizationally the most expensive time of the year to fix a bullpen.  Guys who can be picked up for low to medium salaries in the offseason are traded for solid prospects.  I deeply want this team to improve its bullpen for my own entertainment but now is not the time to move prospects to cover for poor offseason planning.

Agree with this, completely. There is not enough depth in our assets to fix the bullpen via trade deadline. Moving Paredes might be a nice addition but Orze and Rogers cannot be counted on to get us to the 9th. Lawyerson.......getting better? Adams, has to be better options somewhere

[Sjoski]

Question:

When, if ever, is this front office going to take a true, committed long-term view?

The Case:

Blowing up the bullpen last year was a bold, necessary acknowledgment of where this team stood. It allowed us to restock the farm system with potential franchise-altering talent. But a full-scale rebuild takes patience. Why rush to "fix" the bullpen today before we’ve even verified that we have a stable, championship-level core of position players and starting pitching to build upon?

Trading away assets right now just to patch over immediate, temporary leaks is shortsighted.

Claim:

Sacrificing tomorrow to band-aid today is exactly what keeps this franchise trapped in a continuous, exhausting cycle of mediocrity.

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

Larnach to SD for Bradgley Rodriguez. Opens a path for Roden or Jenkins

Love what Larnach is doing right now for the Twins but I was also wondering about something with San Diego like your idea. Maybe Larnach for Jason Adam, although I too prefer B. Rodriguez.

I have wondered about the Yankees coughing up something worthwhile (LaGrange?).

[Riverbrian]

When guy your bullpen and don't commit the resources to fix it... you are left with a lot of tryouts and those tryouts will result in some discovery. 

I'm enjoying the transition of Andrew Morris to the pen and I am hopeful that we have developing bullpen arm for the future. 

I really like what I'm seeing out of Gomez. The return of Cole Sands will be a plus. 

The rest of them... success and failure in doses and leaves the impression that the bullpen isn't deep enough and lacking enough late inning options and that isn't a good combination. 

If the Twins are still in contention at the deadline. I'd expect them to add bullpen arms.

If they are looking at good arms with years of service left. Who knows what it will cost but we can look at the returns for Duran, Jax and Varland as a guide for what it will cost in terms of prospects to acquire younger power arms with years of service remaining.   

Nearly every contending team will be looking for bullpen arms to bolster for the stretch run and that will drive up the price on rentals as well. I always assume that most GM's are pretty disciplined so the price shouldn't go through the roof but there will be competition for any decent bullpen arm rental. Do we have a prospect that we are willing to part with that the trading team will like over the prospects that they are willing to part with.

This is subjective and dependent on the team we are trading with. We won't give up Jenkins for a rental. Winokur for example... would we give him up? Will some team like Brandon Winokur... again for example.    

If we have a Bad July and the team is not in contention. It's a completely different discussion. If Ryan, Jeffers, Bell get moved. I think it's fair to ask that a decent young bullpen be included in the deal. 

I do not expect a Bad July. The bullpen certainly needs to be overcome but the team is hitting and producing runs. Our starting pitching has some depth to keep us in games. As much as I talk about it... I think Derek Shelton has done a good job of utilizing the roster. 

I think the Twins will hit the deadline in search of bullpen help because I believe they will be in contention. That's going to bug some folks on Twinsdaily.

Myself... I may not agree with the go for it declaration that was made during the offseason. However... Since they declared they are going for it. I do expect them to go for it if in contention. I would not want my front office wishy washy even if I disagree.   

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

I guess I don't care if the Twins are a 1 and done playoff team. Been there. Done that for 20 years now.

Hard to make a run without getting into the playoffs. While i can agree that losing in the first round or at all is disappointing, I'm more likely to enjoy a playoff team than a fourth or fifth place club. The Yankees haven't won since 2009. I guess their fans are edgy perhaps. No, that isn't a comparison but just opposite sides of a coin.

What strategy do you suggest? Do you have specific plans that are potentially feasible. I'm curious.