Should the Twins make Ryan Jeffers the Qualifying Offer?

[Greggory Masterson]

Image courtesy of © Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

Ryan Jeffers was the best player on the Twins through the first quarter of the 2026 season. In 37 games, he slashed .295/.408/.541, with a .949 OPS about 60% above league average. That OPS is the best in the league among primary catchers with at least 140 plate appearances, and by fWAR, he ranks fifth, despite not playing since May 18. He’s also graded out as an average defender behind the plate, and he was on track to play about 120 games between catcher and DH. Simply put, he was playing like one of the premier catchers in baseball.

Due to Jeffers’s broken hamate bone, he will remain out of commission for another 4-6 weeks, by most estimates. He struck an optimistic tone when he met with reporters this week, but even he noted that he can't predict how things will go, and that he was advised not to rush it.

The Twins sorely miss him, as his backups Victor Caratini and Alex Jackson have combined to hit just over .200 and have not provided even average defense behind the plate. Jeffers is eligible for free agency this offseason. Let’s break down the case and context for him to receive a qualifying offer. There are a lot of moving pieces here, so buckle up.

What is a qualifying offer?
Per the current CBA, free agents are eligible to receive a qualifying offer from their current team once in their career. Since this is Jeffers's first time eligible for free agency, the Twins can give him the qualifying offer. The qualifying offer is a one-year contract worth the average yearly salary of the 125 highest-paid players the previous year. For the 2026 season, that was approximately $22 million, and for 2027, it will likely be slightly higher. Let’s conservatively call it $23 million.

If the player accepts the offer, they will return to their team for one more year. If they reject the offer, they will be a free agent. However, other teams are disincentivized from signing the player because they will lose a draft pick (or two, depending on their payroll) the following season. The original team will receive an additional draft pick between the first and fourth rounds as compensation for losing the player, varying based on their revenue-sharing status.

Of note, the ongoing CBA negotiations ahead of the 2027 season will (probably) not affect the qualifying offers at the end of the 2026 season. Even if the entire system were removed in the 2027 CBA, the 2026 qualifying offers will be grandfathered in because they occurred before the current CBA expires.

Why would the Twins extend a qualifying offer to Ryan Jeffers?
Well, obviously, the primary reason would be that Jeffers is a good catcher. It’s unlikely that Jeffers is truly the best offensive catcher in baseball, but he has been a good hitter over the past four seasons—about 20% better than league average—at a position where the average hitter is below league average. His defense is not outstanding, or potentially even good, but it’s average, and good enough that he’s not a disaster at the most difficult position to play.

Furthermore, the alternatives are not appetizing. Caratini and Jackson are both under contract for 2027 (with Caratini owed $7 million), but neither has given much reason to have confidence they will be dependable everyday options. The Twins have a handful of high-minors catchers, such as Noah Cardenas and David Bañuelos, but none of them have starting catcher potential. Eduardo Tait is their top catching prospect, but he’s a 19-year-old at High-A. They might draft Georgia Tech catcher Vahn Lackey, but even if he’s fast-tracked to the majors, he shouldn’t be counted on to be the everyday catcher in 2027.

There's also the subject of Jeffers's trade value. If the Twins are not in contention around the trade deadline, Jeffers is a player teams will be calling about. However, he's projected to return to action just weeks before the deadline, giving teams limited time to evaluate him in a trade. Whatever packages he may have netted two weeks ago have probably been reduced since his injury, which makes the prospect of keeping him around more valuable. The return may even be less valuable than the draft-pick compensation the Twins would receive (and by next year's trade deadline, he would be eligible to be traded again, should he accept the qualifying offer).

Is Jeffers worth a qualifying offer?
At $23 million, Jeffers would be the highest-paid catcher in the world, by a wide margin. The top-paid catchers projected for 2027 are Atlanta’s Sean Murphy and Philadelphia’s J.T. Realmuto, at $15 million each. Jeffers would make about 50% more.

Put simply, even if Jeffers maintained his 2026 performance upon his return from injury, he’s not worth $23 million a year in his 30s. However, he might be worth $23 million for one year. Teams are much happier to overpay for a short contract (see Kyle Tucker’s deal with the Dodgers) than they are to cut a long deal for less money per year. There’s a cliché that goes “there’s no such thing as a bad one-year deal,” and there’s some truth to that.

The Twins might be in a position in which their best option for having a starting-caliber catcher in 2027 is to overpay Jeffers in the short term. Other free-agent options would be Tyler Stephenson and Jonah Heim. The Twins extended Jake Odorizzi a qualifying offer in 2019 in a similar situation. Odorizzi didn’t command an annual contract of $18 million, but to keep the rotation stocked, they were willing to overpay to keep him for one more year.

Furthermore, if Jeffers rejects the qualifying offer, the Twins could receive that compensatory draft pick, likely between the first and second rounds of the 2027 MLB Draft. Which raises another question:

Would Jeffers accept the offer? (and also, why not just extend him?)
It’s unclear whether Jeffers would even accept the offer, though I would probably bet yes, if I were forced to take a side. He's a Scott Boras client, but he's never been thought of as this caliber of player before this season, and he's hurt right now. Even Boras's aggressiveness has limits.

However, there have not been many catchers who have hit the open market to base this discussion on. Most free-agent catchers are of the backup variety. Since the 2019-2020 offseason, there have been seven contracts signed by catchers for more than $23 million total: Yasmani Grandal (4/73M), James McCann (4/40.6M), Realmuto (5/115.5, 3/45M), Willson Contreras (5/87.5), Christian Vázquez (3/30M), Mitch Garver (2/24M).

That being said, Jeffers is certainly in a position to join that group, and, like Contreras, his bat is insurance against potentially moving off the catcher position. Contreras now plays first base, but in the four seasons leading up to his $87.5 million contract with St. Louis, he had a similar 118 OPS+, albeit with more plate appearances.

Jeffers could be in line for a big, multi-year payday. His estimated contract might be enough to allow him to opt out of a one-year, $23 million deal. There’s risk to signing a short deal, especially for a catcher on the wrong side of 30. Should Jeffers have a down 2027, those multi-year deals might dry up, and as a Boras client, Jeffers is likely to try to maximize his lifetime earnings rather than take the guaranteed money—hich I suppose could be twisted to support either side of this question.

This bit also explains why the Twins are unlikely to offer Jeffers a long-term deal. Paying Jeffers in eight figures a year for three or more years is quite risky, especially for a team that might have its catcher of the future debuting in the next couple of seasons. And especially for a team whose low payroll has been an unending topic of conversation for three years now. Speaking of which:

Would Tom Pohlad allow the Twins to pay Jeffers $23 million next season?
Yeah, probably.

The Twins are running a minuscule payroll right now. They’re projected to have an approximately $70-80 million payroll after arbitration in 2027, which includes the money owed to Carlos Correa. If they part with Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Trevor Larnach, or Royce Lewis either at the trade deadline or the beginning of the offseason, that figure will be even lower.

Players like Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Kaelen Culpepper, and Gabriel Gonzalez are likely to be filling roster spots on minimum-salary contracts. There’s a case to be made that even if the Twins are returning to a $105 million payroll, they’d have room for Jeffers to be paid $16 million more than his current $6.7 million salary next year.

If the Pohlad family indeed intends to increase payroll (as Tom has suggested would have been the case this year, had he taken the reins earlier) to even $130 million, they have more than enough room to bump up Jeffers’s contract for a single year.

When my co-host on the Twins Off-Daily Podcast (no free ads), @Lou Hennessy, proposed this idea earlier in the season, I initially scoffed a bit. But the combination of Jeffers’s performance, team needs, and room to spend, might make this a worthwhile endeavor.

 

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[William K Johnson]

Should have done it yesterday.

[Bangkok Twins Fan]

At $23 million, Jeffers would be the highest-paid catcher in the world, by a wide margin. 

I'm a bit naive about the economics of baseball these days, but that strikes me as an insane salary for a player like Jeffers. 

[Hrbeks Divot]

This is a no brainer for me IF Tom Pohlad really intends to increase payroll. You get the player on a low risk (albeit high dollar) one year deal and you can look to trade him at next year’s deadline. He’s a veteran leader in the clubhouse and for a young pitching staff. If he declines you get the draft pick(s) and pivot to another free agent option. The only way I don’t give him a QO is if he comes back from the hamate injury and can’t swing a bat.

[chpettit19]

$30 million on the catching position for a team with a total payroll that I'll believe jumps significantly above 100 million when I see it? That's a tough spot to be in. Especially when you consider the Correa payment to Houston. The Twins would be paying Buxton, Correa/Houston, and the catchers about half their payroll unless the Pohlads are forced to spend (new CBA) or suddenly drastically change direction in payroll. All these prospects better be REALLY good if you're trying to win that way.

[twinstalker]

1 minute ago, William K Johnson said:

Should have done it yesterday.

There's likely no win for the Twins in any scenario except the one where he's back before the trade deadline, and they get something good for him. which is somewhat questionable given the injury and their lack of ability to recognize and bargain for prospect talent.

Foremost, the only possibility of Jeffers continuing on with the Twins is through the qualifying offer which overpays him for one year so that he doesn't have to be saddled with costing his new team a first round pick (which decreases his $$$).  You can't do that yesterday, only in mid-November.

Is that the best thing to do for $23 million, sign Ryan Jeffers, knowing he won't be part of the team after 2027?  You hope to get a compensation pick by extending him the offer and having him choose another team, but there's a real danger he takes it, and you've just spent $23 million that won't help you when you might realistically be looking to compete.

So, trade him by Aug 4.  You'll (hopefully) get better than what a compensation pick would net you on average, and you don't carry the risk of using $23M on an aging catcher who won't be here after 2027.  Of course it all changes if the injury scares all teams away, and it might.  The swing does not come back immediately.

 

[Andy MacPhail]

I really like Jeffers, he starts off strong offensively & is competent defensively. He's very good in challenging balls & strikes. But he'll wane as the season goes on & not worth the QO. Twins' problem has been over-paying some players & not getting players they need.

It was very easy to see the catching dilema coming but the Twins have been blind to it. For years the Twins should have invested in a young promising MLB catcher but have failed to do so. Over-paying Jeffers shouldn't be the solution for Twins' past short-coming.

[tony&rodney]

Sure, not my money. Seems like we won't have to worry about Jeffers though if he returns before August. There will be at least one team that offers up a Rojas/Mendez type of prospect and Jeffers will be in a new uniform.

[Whitey333]

He will likely be traded for prospects.   I don't see giving him a QO for 23 million when they have been cutting payroll for quite some time now.   And if somehow the Twins were given $23 million more in payroll it wouldn't make much sense to spend it on one player when you could get 3 or 4 players for that 23 mil.  

[The Great Hambino]

I was in favor of a QO until I realized how wacky that price would be relative to other top catchers.  If the QO was scaled by position sorta like the franchise tag in the NFL, then it would be a no-brainer.  But due to his position, I find myself ultimately settling on no.

If he can't re-establish his trade value before the deadline, they'll have to settle on the imaginary goodwill they think they'll be generating when they're "totally in on him" and "made a real competitive offer" and "why aren't you renewing your season tickets?  Can't you see how totally serious we are about thinking about competing?" when he signs elsewhere in free agency

[nicksaviking]

How about the Twins elbow their way into the inner circle of MLB owners for once, so they can get a feel for how the economic side of things are going to look next summer. 

Because if they are going to be FORCED to increase payroll, I'd rather do it with an overpay on a QO or extension for a good player who might not age as well, than spend it on five more Josh Bell types. 

[Reptevia]

No. He is the 12th ranked offensive catcher this year. He was 18th last year. Twenty three million is ridiculous. 

[Dman]

Yeah no way this team QO's him.  This is a value type team and the QO for Jeffers is not a value play.  They'll stick with Jackson and hope he comes close to Jeffers offensive production.  That was plan before Caratini and I assume it will be the plan once Jeffers leaves.

I don't know if the Twins ever approached Jeffers with an extension offer, but they should have done that about three years ago IMO. Maybe Jeffers always just wanted to get to free agency.  Who knows.  At any rate given the situation either they will have to outbid others teams to retain him in the offseason or trade him and move on. Or just lose him for nothing like SWR. We'll see what happens at the deadline,

[mluebker]

IF there were any likelihood that the Twins were actually looking to build a team, not just put together a roster; and IF 2027 was going to be a normal season, not one shortened by a lockout or strike, it might make sense for that one year. But realistically, the current Twins seem unlikely to suddenly decide they want to win (instead of just being “competitive”) and they’d need not only Jeffers and Buxton, but upgrades at almost every other position.

So no, trade him at the deadline, hope the Pohlads sell, write off 2027 as another lost year, and pray that the new owners start planning for 2028 right away.

[DJL44]

Another article highlighting the absolute failure of the front office to extend his contract years ago.

[mickster]

3 hours ago, Hrbeks Divot said:

This is a no brainer for me IF Tom Pohlad really intends to increase payroll. You get the player on a low risk (albeit high dollar) one year deal and you can look to trade him at next year’s deadline. He’s a veteran leader in the clubhouse and for a young pitching staff. If he declines you get the draft pick(s) and pivot to another free agent option. The only way I don’t give him a QO is if he comes back from the hamate injury and can’t swing a bat.

if he makes it too the end of the season, yes you do this.   At least get something back if he signs elsewhere.  Catching is needed and we aren't ready for a new everyday catcher yet.   Overpay, probably - but has to happen somewhere.   Tom - do us a favor and do this, Ryan and Lopez and show the fans you are going to build and not continue to rip this team apart.

[HeresWaldo]

Not only should the Twins make Jeffers the QO, I'd argue it's the only offer they should make him. Love that dude but he's already not a great defender and he's playing a position that ages terribly. Overpaying him for one likely productive year is fine, and I wouldn't want to give any non-superstar catcher a multi-year deal. Worse case scenario is he accepts it, plays poorly, and it's still just a one year deal adding coverage to a position where we've got no better options. 

[Mike Sixel]

Hahaha. Seriously? No chance. Should have traded him off they weren't actually going to add to the team. Just awful mismanagement of assets.

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Another article highlighting the absolute failure of the front office to extend his contract years ago.

There are certainly Boras clients that sign extensions before they hit free agency, but they are relatively rare. The players get a say in whether or not they're extended. The Twins can overpay guys to convince them to stay, but that is not a good team building strategy. If the player wants to hit free agency, or doesn't want to stay here, or doesn't want to give up their chance to pick where they play, the Twins can't just force them to sign. It's not just automatically a failure of the front office when they don't extend guys.

Some guys (Buxton, Polanco, Kepler, etc.) are willing to take extensions and not hit free agency. Others aren't. We'll never know what conversations were had behind the scenes about an extension.

[MN Brian]

Others have addressed how much of an overpay this would be, and I agree.  I like Jeffers, but the top paid catcher?

But I think the interesting aspect of this is that the QO salary would apply to the first year of the new CBA, right?  And if the owners are successful then there will likely be a cap & floor system in place that will require a significant amount of spending by the Twins.  Seems likely there would need to be some transition in year 1, but think about how you can spend that money.  There won't be more above average players available, same as before.  But the balance of money to be spent will be towards the smaller payroll teams.  Free agents that we might be interested in will likely be tough to get.  Internal candidates for that spend suddenly become very interesting.

[chpettit19]

18 minutes ago, HeresWaldo said:

Not only should the Twins make Jeffers the QO, I'd argue it's the only offer they should make him. Love that dude but he's already not a great defender and he's playing a position that ages terribly. Overpaying him for one likely productive year is fine, and I wouldn't want to give any non-superstar catcher a multi-year deal. Worse case scenario is he accepts it, plays poorly, and it's still just a one year deal adding coverage to a position where we've got no better options. 

How do you plan to build the team around him? If the CBA forces the Twins to up their payroll by 50-75 mil in 2027 (very real possibility that a floor of some sort is implemented, but very well may not go into effect until 2028 or 2029 to give teams a chance to adjust), an argument could be made for having 50+ million tied up in Correa, Buxton, and the catching tandem. If not, there is no way paying Ryan Jeffers the highest catcher salary in baseball is good for the Twins 2027 team. Having 30 mil wrapped up in the catcher position for a team with a 100 mil payroll, 10 of which goes to a guy not even on the team, is not a good use of resources. At all.

[amjgt]

Scenario 1) We offer him the QO and he accepts it

Scenario 2) We offer him the QO and prior to accepting or declining, we work out an extension.

Scenario 3) We offer him the QO and he declines. This likely means we would get a compensatory pick in the low 30s of the 2027 draft. Though a potential lockout mucks up that picture a little. 

Scenario 4) He’s traded at the deadline, which would disallow the new team from giving him the QO - this would be Scott Boras’ favorite, so I think we can assume he’ll apply whatever leverage he can, to push this towards happening

Scenario 5) He’s not traded at the deadline. Not offered the QO. And becomes a free agent at the end of the season. 

At the very least the QO becomes a factor in what we should be potentially asking for him at the trade deadline. If we think we will make him a QO, then the very least we should ask for in return, from another team should be the same value as a Compensitory pick.

It will probably be difficult to know much more about the QO situation by the trade deadline because he just will not have been back from his injury for very long at that point. In the same way that it might be difficult for a team looking to trade for Jeffers to know exactly what he’s going to give them post-deadline and might be unwilling to fork over value in prospects that the Twins view as equivalent to a QO. Regardless of if the Twins think they will give him a QO, they should definitely make it known that they think it’s a strong possibility 

Ultimately, we just won’t know by the trade deadline, because when he comes back, if he plays  like he did before his injury, then it feels like kind of an easy YES, but if he goes back to more average catcher performance it feels like an easy NO. In my mind this uncertainly really diminishes the chances he’s traded at the deadline. 

[Mike Sixel]

He 100 percent accepts the QO unless the new CBA changes everything. Even then...... That's more than he gets in 1.5-2 years in a new deal. 

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, amjgt said:

Scenario 1) We offer him the QO and he accepts it

Scenario 2) We offer him the QO and prior to accepting or declining, we work out an extension.

Scenario 3) We offer him the QO and he declines. This likely means we would get a compensatory pick in the low 30s of the 2027 draft. Though a potential lockout mucks up that picture a little. 

Scenario 4) He’s traded at the deadline, which would disallow the new team from giving him the QO - this would be Scott Boras’ favorite, so I think we can assume he’ll apply whatever leverage he can, to push this towards happening

Scenario 5) He’s not traded at the deadline. Not offered the QO. And becomes a free agent at the end of the season. 

At the very least the QO becomes a factor in what we should be potentially asking for him at the trade deadline. If we think we will make him a QO, then the very least we should ask for in return, from another team should be the same value as a Compensitory pick.

It will probably be difficult to know much more about the QO situation by the trade deadline because he just will not have been back from his injury for very long at that point. In the same way that it might be difficult for a team looking to trade for Jeffers to know exactly what he’s going to give them post-deadline and might be unwilling to fork over value in prospects that the Twins view as equivalent to a QO. Regardless of if the Twins think they will give him a QO, they should definitely make it known that they think it’s a strong possibility 

Ultimately, we just won’t know by the trade deadline, because when he comes back, if he plays  like he did before his injury, then it feels like kind of an easy YES, but if he goes back to more average catcher performance it feels like an easy NO. In my mind this uncertainly really diminishes the chances he’s traded at the deadline. 

Are we sure it'd likely be in the low 30s? How many catchers have ever signed deals over 50 mil? I'd guess it's more likely the pick is after the 2nd round. Weigh that however you want, but there are not a lot of catchers out there signing deals big enough to get the Twins a comp a pick. Going into his age 30 season coming off an injury that will likely depress his numbers in the 2nd half, I'd say it's unlikely, but not impossible, that Jeffers gets 50 mil. I'd put the likelihood Jeffers accepts the QO at over 75%. Assuming financials are important to him. 

[Linus]

6 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Are we sure it'd likely be in the low 30s? How many catchers have ever signed deals over 50 mil? I'd guess it's more likely the pick is after the 2nd round. Weigh that however you want, but there are not a lot of catchers out there signing deals big enough to get the Twins a comp a pick. Going into his age 30 season coming off an injury that will likely depress his numbers in the 2nd half, I'd say it's unlikely, but no impossible, that Jeffers gets 50 mil. I'd put the likelihood Jeffers accepts the QO at over 75%. Assuming financials are important to him. 

I think this is correct and makes the comp pick not that appealing (to me anyway). 

[Dman]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

. I'd put the likelihood Jeffers accepts the QO at over 75%. Assuming financials are important to him. 

I agree.  If I am Jeffers a Twins QO would be a god send.  He could bank on a yearly basis more than he would get on average in any contract and it would give him another year to build value after the hamate bone injury. Unless Boras has some team ready to offer crazy money or term he'd take the QO.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, Linus said:

I think this is correct and makes the comp pick not that appealing (to me anyway). 

It, unfortunately, also sets the bar for trade negotiations. I think trading him is the right thing to do, but I expect people will be upset with the return. When teams throw out offers the Twins can't say they need more than a late 1st round pick in value because the other teams know they aren't getting that. So the bar is set at an early third round pick type value. Why they should've traded him in the offseason.

[PDX Twin]

I'm betting on a long lockout. How does that affect the status of one-year deals such as the one proposed with the QO? Do we have to pay the full year if he only plays half? What if the whole year is canceled?

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, Dman said:

I agree.  If I am Jeffers a Twins QO would be a god send.  He could bank on a yearly basis more than he would get on average in any contract and it would give him another year to build value after the hamate bone injury. Unless Boras has some team ready to offer crazy money or term he'd take the QO.

Jeffers would sign it in a heartbeat. I only said 75% to be semi-reasonable. But the real likelihood is probably more like 99.9%. He's likely looking at something similar to Vazquez's deal. 3 years and somewhere between 25 and 35 mil. If you can get 23 for 1 and still turn around and get that 3 year deal the next year, why would you turn that down?

[amjgt]

13 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Are we sure it'd likely be in the low 30s? How many catchers have ever signed deals over 50 mil? I'd guess it's more likely the pick is after the 2nd round. Weigh that however you want, but there are not a lot of catchers out there signing deals big enough to get the Twins a comp a pick. Going into his age 30 season coming off an injury that will likely depress his numbers in the 2nd half, I'd say it's unlikely, but not impossible, that Jeffers gets 50 mil. I'd put the likelihood Jeffers accepts the QO at over 75%. Assuming financials are important to him. 

Here’s my take…

It’ll either be a Comp A pick or nothing.

Because the only way Jeffers rejects the $23M is if his management team thinks he’ll get something like 4/70 or 3/60.

If they think it’s looking more like 3/45, then they’ll accept it and hit the open market in 2027 free and clear of the QO stuff.

I didn’t mention it in my first post, but a potential MLB payroll floor (and teams needing to spend) could play a part in this as well.