Twins Trade Deadline Buying Guide: Dream Scenarios

The 2026 MLB trade deadline is fast approaching, and the Minnesota Twins remain (surprisingly) locked firmly in the playoff race. Jim Pohlad has suggested that the Twins want to be buyers, and the team has four areas where an upgrade would be warranted: the starting rotation, the bullpen, first base, and shortstop. 

Below are three dream scenario example trades that would address each of these needs. By definition, these moves are very unlikely to happen, but they should provide the reader with context of what it would take to get something so big done, based on recent historical examples.  I encourage the reader not to get too hung up on the specific names included within these trades, but rather to consider the bigger picture; if the Twins want to get a number-two or -three starting pitcher, it would take this caliber of prospect(s), for example. 

Without further ado, let's get to dreaming.

Trade 1: Both the Rotation and the Bullpen Get a Big Boost

• Twins Get: RHP Freddy Peralta (expiring contract, $8 mil AAV), RHP Luke Weaver (1.5 years of control, $11 mil AAV)
• Mets Get: RHP Riley Quick, INF Royce Lewis, OF Brandon Winokur

Historical Comparison:

• Mets Get: RHP Freddy Peralta, RHP Tobias Myers
• Brewers Get: RHP Brandon Sproat (top-100 prospect), SS Jett Williams (borderline top 100 prospect)

To say that the Mets have underachieved this summer would be an extreme understatement. As of this writing, they sit above only the lowly Colorado Rockies in the National League standings and figure to be a seller come the trade deadline.

Starting pitcher Freddy Peralta figures to be one of the more attractive names on the block. His contract is set to expire at the end of the season, and any team acquiring his services will owe him less than $3 million for the remainder of the season. His 4.66 ERA isn’t all that impressive, but his xFIP is a more respectable 4.25. However, his K-BB% is a meager 12.9%, by far the worst of his career. Getting out of New York and connecting with Pete Maki, who has helped turn ok pitchers into good pitchers (see Taj Bradley, for example) would probably do him well.

Reliever Luke Weaver may secretly be the jewel of this trade. He currently ranks third in win probability added (2.45) among qualified relievers and is under team control through 2027. His four-seamer has elite rise (19.2 inches IVB), playing well at the top of the zone and holding opponents to a .242 slugging average. His changeup, while having below-average movement, plays well at the bottom of the zone and has held opponents to a .237 SLG. Weaver is nails against both sides of the platoon (.587 OPS against lefties and .345 OPS against righties) and would instantly be the best reliever in the Twins pen.

Losing pitching prospect Riley Quick would hurt, but the Twins would be betting on the borderline top-100 prospect not being able to figure out his control issues (13.8% walk rate). Outfielder Brandon Winokur has some interesting power potential, but has been right at average offensively according to wRC+ at High-A (like OPS+ and other similar metrics, 100 is average; Winokur posted a 98 in 122 games in 2025 and a 105 in 74 games in 2026). Royce Lewis would provide name recognition for Mets fans and would get a nice early-career reset. Lewis has been pretty good since his mid-May demotion, hitting .258 with seven home runs, but his numbers have started to drop again in July; he slashed .279/.330/.512 in 22 June games and .214/.298/.429 in 11 July games, entering Monday. Moving on sooner, rather than later, would probably be in both parties’ best interests. 

Interestingly, the best comparison for a Peralta-centered trade is the one the Mets pulled off over the winter to acquire Peralta. They sent out two highly-regarded prospects and also got back a valuable bullpen arm. It’s possible that the Twins would have to surrender a Marek Houston or Eduardo Tait rather than Quick (or include another mid-level prospect) to get this deal done. It’s also probable that Peralta and Weaver will be highly sought after, so the Twins would probably have to give up more than they would like to beat other teams' offers. Would they do that for an impending free agent and good but not elite bullpen arm? It's hard to say. To be sure, though, Peralta's acquisition cost has come down since the winter. Dealt now, he would no longer net an acquiring team a draft pick if he leaves via free agency, and his rough half-season has taken some sheen off him as a potential playoff starter, too.

Trade 2: The Twins Get Their Shortstop of the Future...But At What Cost?

• Twins Get: SS Gunnar Henderson (2.5 years of control, arbitration)
• Orioles Get: OF Emmanuel Rodriguez, SS Marek Houston, LHP Dasan Hill

Historical Comparison:

• Dodgers Get: SS Trea Turner, RHP Max Scherzer
• Nationals Get: RHP Josiah Gray (top-100 prospect), C Keibert Ruiz (top-50 prospect), RHP Gerardo Carrillo (mid-level prospect), OF Donovan Casey (low-level prospect)

Gunnar Henderson was in the conversation for best shortstop in the game a mere two seasons ago. Since then, Bobby Witt Jr. has continued to ascend, while Henderson’s career has somewhat stagnated. His 37-home run, 7.9-fWAR 2024 season was among the best for a shortstop in recent memory, but his 2025 was “only” above average (120 OPS+, 17 home runs, 4.8 fWAR) and his 2026 is shaping up to be the least productive of his young career (90 OPS+, 1.7 fWAR).

Still, the Twins would have to absolutely blow the Orioles away to obtain Henderson’s services. Realistically, the Orioles would ask for outfielder Walker Jenkins—and the Twins would obviously say no. But Rodriguez, Houston, and Hill all rank among the top 50-150 prospects in the game and possess enticing skills and high upsides that may be attractive for the begrudgingly rebuilding Orioles. Rodriguez reaches base at an elite clip and provides both thump at the plate and the ability to play center field; Houston might be one of the best defensive prospects in the game; and Hill could be a solid No. 2 or 3 starter. 

However, all three also have their warts. Rodriguez has struggled to stay on the field for various orthopedic reasons; Houston still needs to prove that he can be an offensive threat in the high minors; and Hill’s K-BB% is a paltry 15.8 because of an atmospherically high 18.4% walk rate. It’s highly unlikely that Baltimore would part with Henderson, and if they do, a fervent bidding war would quickly commence. It’s doubtful that the Twins would be able to come out on top without offering Jenkins, Rodriguez, and more. 

What may give teams pause, however, is Henderson’s significant drop in bat speed—from 76.3 mph in 2024 to 75.3 mph in 2025 to 74.4 mph in 2026—and average exit velocity–92.8 mph to 92.1 mph to 89.5 mph. Correspondingly, he’s also seemingly lost all ability to hit fastballs, producing a paltry .276 SLG and -8 run value in 2026. Are these trends reversible or the sign of an early decline? That's something teams around the league, and the Orioles themselves, must wrestle with. Add in that Henderson has never really graded out well defensively according to Outs Above Average, and it's safe to wonder if the juice would be worth the squeeze.

Trea Turner had 1.5 years of team control remaining when the Nationals packaged him with Max Scherzer, who was an impending free agent, and sent him to the Dodgers. While Washington’s return has largely flopped at the major-league level, the return was viewed as appropriate at the time. It also serves as a good example of why teams such as the Twins should be more willing to part with even their high-level prospects.

Trade 3: Hey! A Legit First Baseman!

• Twins Get: 1B Luis Garcia Jr. (1.5 years of control, arbitration)
• Nationals Get: OF Gabriel Gonzalez, RHP Ryan Gallagher

Historical Comparison:

• Nationals Get: SS Kevin Made (team top 20-30 prospect), LHP DJ Herz (1.7 fWAR in 2024; team top 15-20 prospect)
• Cubs Get: INF Jeimer Candelario (pending free agent, 126 OPS+ when traded, 16 home runs)

Luis Garcia Jr. is having a breakout age-26 season. His 132 OPS+ is a career-best, as are his 20 home runs, and he ranks 17th in the National League among qualified hitters in overall production. He rarely strikes out (15.7%) and has a propensity to hit the ball very hard (91.9 mph average exit velocity; 46.9% hard-hit rate; both well above average) despite a 40.5% chase rate, one of the league's worst. Defensively, he is average, registering 0 Outs Above Average, which would actually be a pretty solid upgrade over Lewis, Victor Caratini, and Josh Bell.

While Garcia seems like an attainable target on the surface, many dominoes would have to fall in the Twins’ favor for them to gain his services. First, the Nationals would have to decide to sell; they’re currently only two games out of the third Wild Card spot in the NL. Second, Minnesota would have to decide that they actually want to upgrade at first base. As mentioned above, Lewis has been… fine… since getting recalled. If the team was to move on from him, it might make more sense to do so during the offseason, as he would have more time to show that his turnaround is legit. Third, Garcia will be one of the more attractive first base options for contending teams, so the Twins would have to hope a bidding war doesn’t price them out. 

The Nationals were in a vaguely similar position at the 2023 deadline with Jeimer Candelario. However, he was an impending free agent, and Washington was bad. Candelario was performing similarly to how Garcia is, and split time between first and third base with the Cubs. Chicago gave up two mid-level prospects to acquire fewer than 50 games of Candelario’s services. With an extra full year of team control, the Twins would likely have to surrender multiple prospects in the 10-20 range on their own list.

None of these players would be full-fledged instant fixes for a flawed Twins roster. They would, however, represent the kind of big swing fans seem to crave, and could put the Twins on the right side of the dividing line between the want-tos and the doers in 2026. They'd each also offer some kind of help to the 2027 team, which is an important consideration for a team ready to contend but not ready to go all-in. Let's dream a little.