Report From The Fort: Eight Guys, Three Spots, and Roster Math

[John Bonnes]

Image courtesy of © Mike Watters-Imagn Images

FORT MYERS—Barring injuries, 10 of the 13 position-player spots on the Twins' projected roster are already locked in: 

• Josh Bell, Luke Keaschall, Brooks Lee, and Royce Lewis will start in the infield.
• Matt Wallner, Byron Buxton, and Trevor Larnach will start in the outfield.
• Ryan Jeffers and Victor Caratini will be the Twins' catchers.
• Kody Clemens will be a corner utility glove and likely start versus most right-handed pitchers, somewhere. 

That leaves three bench spots, so let’s look at the candidates, along with my percentage estimation that each makes the Opening Day roster. (Since there are three spots, those percentages have to add up to 300%.) The three spots are:

1. Backup Shortstop

In the past, the Twins could look around their starting infield for backup shortstop options. No longer. Willi Castro is in Colorado, and Lee moved into the lead role at shortstop when Carlos Correa was traded. Thus, one of the bench spots has to be taken by a true shortstop who can step in when Lee needs to miss a game—or even needs a short IL stint. One of the following three players will be on the roster, and your guess is as good as mine about which one is in the lead.

Tristan Gray (30%) is 29 years old and only has 122 MLB plate appearances with a .634 OPS, but that’s why he’s competing for a bench spot. He also has lots of flexibility in that he can play all over the infield, and his underlying metrics suggest he has the most offensive upside of the three. 

Ryan Kreidler (30%) has the best glove of the candidates, but he also has a career .383 OPS(!) over four years and 211 plate appearances. His Triple-A numbers (.717 OPS over 1,223 PA) suggest he’s better than that, but I mean, he has to be, right? One other advantage he has over the other two players is that he can also play center field. 

Orlando Arcia (40%) is the 10-year veteran who was an All-Star as recently as 2023, but has posted a .599 OPS over his last two years. Can the 31-year-old use spring training to show he’s back to his old self and prolong his career one more year? I’m not optimistic, but I’m still giving him a slight edge because he’s the veteran and could probably opt out of the organization if he doesn’t make the roster. Which is similar to the situation for….

2. Backup Center Fielder

Nobody is going to replace Byron Buxton’s impact in this lineup, but despite his last two (mostly) healthy seasons, an insurance policy for him isn’t just wise; it’s a necessity. If he’s out for an extended period of time, his replacement will probably come from Triple A. But for the occasional necessary day off, the Twins will need a Plan B. Even if Kreidler makes the team, I’m almost sure one of these two center field candidates will make the roster, too, for different reasons.

James Outman (50%) was acquired at the trade deadline from the Dodgers, but didn’t hit any better with the Twins (.558 OPS) than he did with LA (.487 OPS). That means he hasn’t hit well since he was a 26-year-old rookie in 2023, and worse, he didn’t look very good defensively in center or left field, which was perceived to be his strength. But he does have one thing going for him: he’s out of minor-league options. If he doesn’t make the team, the Twins could lose him to another team without getting anything in return. That’s not something the asset-conscious Twins liked to do when the team was run by Derek Falvey and Rocco Baldelli, but we’ll see if that’s different under Jeremy Zoll and Derek Shelton. 

Austin Martin (90%) has several things going for him that make him a likely fit for the Twins roster. He can play center field, he’s right-handed, and he can steal bases. The Twins team needs all of those, and it probably helps that he’s a 26-year-old former top prospect. It makes too much sense for him to be on this roster for it not to happen, one way or the other.

3. Offensive Help

The Twins’ offense ranked 23rd in runs scored last year, and a few spots in their lineup could benefit from platooning with a right-handed bat. Hence, the last spot on the roster will be focused on adding some offense.

Eric Wagaman (25%) is a right-handed hitter who hits left-handed pitching (.783 OPS in 2025) but has never really hit righties, so his role would need to be limited. But that might work. He’s basically a right-handed version of Clemens, minus the ability to play second base. As such, the Twins could mix and match the two at several corner positions and have Wagaman available for high-leverage at-bats versus left-handed relievers late in games. 

Alan Roden (20%) is not a right-handed bat, but they traded for him last year at the deadline. He played left field for the Twins last year, and could be a fit there again this year if the Twins determine they would rather see Trevor Larnach mostly at designated hitter. If Roden makes the team, it probably won’t be as a bench bat, but as a starting left fielder. That would give the team another left-handed corner outfield bat to be added to Larnach, Wallner, and Clemens. 

Gio Urshela (15%) is a veteran right-handed bat, but with less defensive flexibility than Wagaman. That doesn’t mean he can’t win the job, but it seems like he’s on the outside looking in, unless there’s an injury or Wagaman looks overmatched.

The truth is that one can mix and match these guys and end up with different strengths and different weaknesses that reflect what you value in a baseball team. So let’s hear your thoughts in the comments about your choices—and more importantly, your reasons. 

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[Cory Engelhardt]

I think Larnach still gets traded, leaving Martin as a sure fit.

After that, Outman, Kreidler or Arcia, and even Alex Jackson could all fit. Curious if they make any other moves this spring.

[miracleb]

Does Clemens have that great of a glove?  He is a below average bat.  There is no reason for him to have a spot "locked in."  He easily would pass thru waivers and can be a piece sitting at AAA in case of emergency.

[CRF]

Unfortunately, that's a bunch of underwhelming options. 

[Tjwalsh65]

Lanarch being traded would be my first choice.  We also have 4 guys who could be called up by June. 

[Reptevia]

They are all guys who would easily pass through waivers. Gonna be a long season. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

18 minutes ago, miracleb said:

Does Clemens have that great of a glove?  He is a below average bat.  There is no reason for him to have a spot "locked in."  He easily would pass thru waivers and can be a piece sitting at AAA in case of emergency.

I agree with this. I know he's a good clubhouse guy, but his path to real playing time certainly wasn't helped by them signing Caratini.

[Twins Takes]

Roden needs to be on the roster. It only makes sense if he is. 

[jmlease1]

Outman's lack of options should not be a reason to hand him a job. That's scholarship BS. Make him win it on merit, because he'll almost certainly pass through waivers, and if he couldn't win the job in the first place he's not a great loss of an asset anyways. Would much rather see what Roden, Martin, Rodriguez, et al can do.

Opening up a spot by trading Larnach is fine, but no scholarships.

[stringer bell]

I've been all for removing Larnach from the equation by trading him. I don't think the Twins need him as a buffer for Rodriguez, Jenkins and Gonzalez. I also propose they rip off the Outman bandage, in part for the same reason that he stands in the way of the better talent. Roden and Martin can handle center field if/when Buxton is unavailable and Kreidler has quite a bit of experience there as well. 

Alex Jackson hit a homer yesterday, is regarded as a good defensive catcher and seemed to make positive adjustments with his swing in '25. Is it crazy to suggest keeping him and going with a bench of three other versatile guys? Martin, Kreidler and Clemens perhaps? If Larnach isn't in the picture, then Roden could essentially take his role and we would see if he is worthwhile.

[mikelink45]

I think Kriedler, Roden and Martin stay, but let's hope some better options come our way.  It will be interesting to see if Zoll has the stubbornness of Falvey when it comes to players they acquire.  Outman should be given no free pass.  He stays only if he found his old bat.  Arcia is too old to be a viable SS, but they might like his age. 

Wagaman does nothing for this team as it is constructed.  Urshela does not have the glove to backup SS and if he is kept it means Lewis is backup SS.  

Gray is interesting and could beat out Kreidler, but that is not exciting. 

[TJSweens]

1. That is just a terrible defensive lineup.

2. Why is Larnach ceded a starting job? His bat isn't good enough to justify his terrible defense. He needs to be traded.

3. Good lord that's a terrible defensive lineup.

4. Martin has to be a lock. It looked like his OF defense made real strides during the year. He gets on base. He steals bases. Give him a chance against RHP.

5. That defensive lineup....ugh!

6. There should be no consideration for options. Outman either shows he can hit or he is DFA. All we gave up was a perennially injured middle reliever for him. 

 

[stringer bell]

Injuries could change everything. Obviously an injury to a catcher would leave a lane for Jackson, an injury for an outfielder would allow Roden to make the club (most likely) and infield injuries would leave a clearer path for Wagaman, Urshela, Gray or Kreidler. 

[DJL44]

37 minutes ago, miracleb said:

Does Clemens have that great of a glove?  He is a below average bat.  There is no reason for him to have a spot "locked in."  He easily would pass thru waivers and can be a piece sitting at AAA in case of emergency.

He's better than all of the other infield options.

The Twins should not care in the slightest if Orlando Arcia or James Outman leave the organization. There will be better players on waivers at the end of March. There is a decent chance one of the final spots goes to a waiver claim instead of these options. If it was my decision, the three spots would go to Martin, Roden and whoever I could get out of a different organization to play SS.

 

[stringer bell]

10 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I think Kriedler, Roden and Martin stay, but let's hope some better options come our way.  It will be interesting to see if Zoll has the stubbornness of Falvey when it comes to players they acquire.  Outman should be given no free pass.  He stays only if he found his old bat.  Arcia is too old to be a viable SS, but they might like his age. 

Wagaman does nothing for this team as it is constructed.  Urshela does not have the glove to backup SS and if he is kept it means Lewis is backup SS.  

Gray is interesting and could beat out Kreidler, but that is not exciting. 

I would say that Gio doesn't have the range to be considered a shortstop. He makes Lee look fast in comparison. Last year his sprint speed was measured at 24.2, two spots behind Victor Caratini. with only seven guys in MLB slower than him.

[DJL44]

13 minutes ago, TJSweens said:

Why is Larnach ceded a starting job? His bat isn't good enough to justify his terrible defense. He needs to be traded.

I have been hoping they dump Larnach and add Emmanuel Rodriguez the entire offseason.

[Cory Engelhardt]

26 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I've been all for removing Larnach from the equation by trading him. I don't think the Twins need him as a buffer for Rodriguez, Jenkins and Gonzalez. I also propose they rip off the Outman bandage, in part for the same reason that he stands in the way of the better talent. Roden and Martin can handle center field if/when Buxton is unavailable and Kreidler has quite a bit of experience there as well. 

Alex Jackson hit a homer yesterday, is regarded as a good defensive catcher and seemed to make positive adjustments with his swing in '25. Is it crazy to suggest keeping him and going with a bench of three other versatile guys? Martin, Kreidler and Clemens perhaps? If Larnach isn't in the picture, then Roden could essentially take his role and we would see if he is worthwhile.

I like this a lot, and I also really think Caratini can be used like Donovan Solano to an extent. Some catching, but some 1b and some dh too. That does leave room for a decent backup/3rd catcher.

[Brandon]

I have the bench including Clemens, Arcia and Martin.  The last spot is up for grabs.  With Cartini able to play 1B and DH they could keep Jackson for C.  Though I think they will want someone who can play multiple position and contribute offensively.  I have in order of my probability of being the last man Ursula, Rhoden, Wageman.  

And the funnest question this spring is who will be the sire.of.  Spring training?

[DannySD]

I think there's a spot for either E-Rod (not mentioned here) or Roden to start the year, even with Martin and Larnach on the roster. It would add some excitement. Outman isn't needed. 

Agreed that Arcia probably has a slight edge at SS right now but as ohters have said, hopefully something better pops up. 

[LambchoP]

I wouldn't mind a platoon of Roden and Martin in LF. Outman shouldn't even be in the conversation and I think Larnach best serves the team as a trade candidate. Trade him for either a reliever or a legit backup IF who can play SS.

[stringer bell]

10 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

He's better than all of the other infield options.

The Twins should not care in the slightest if Orlando Arcia or James Outman leave the organization. There will be better players on waivers at the end of March. There is a decent chance one of the final spots goes to a waiver claim instead of these options. If it was my decision, the three spots would go to Martin, Roden and whoever I could get out of a different organization to play SS.

 

The 2025 version of Clemens was a decent MLB player. He hit right around league average and defended at least acceptably at four positions and is probably the Twins' best defender at two of them. I don't know if he'll sustain the hitting, but he would seem to fill a role on the current team.

As for waiver/DFA claims, there hasn't seemed to be many good options exposed on cutdown days recently. It seems the rosters usually are put together with use of the IL with few viable players available to be claimed.

[old nurse]

The get rid of Larnach by trade because he is so bad makes the assumption that someone else would want him, and the tea would get something of value. The Outman is so bad comments by the bloggers here are followed by the team can’t just cut him because they would risk losing him for nothing.  Sooner or later the team will lose him for nothing anyways.  Well, maybe they could get a broken down reliever who breaks yet again. 

[D.C Twins]

The title of this article could also have been 'Reasons That the Twins Will Not be Competitive This Year'

[D.C Twins]

1 hour ago, TJSweens said:

1. That is just a terrible defensive lineup.

2. Why is Larnach ceded a starting job? His bat isn't good enough to justify his terrible defense. He needs to be traded.

3. Good lord that's a terrible defensive lineup.

4. Martin has to be a lock. It looked like his OF defense made real strides during the year. He gets on base. He steals bases. Give him a chance against RHP.

5. That defensive lineup....ugh!

6. There should be no consideration for options. Outman either shows he can hit or he is DFA. All we gave up was a perennially injured middle reliever for him. 

 

Agree with all.. unfortunately there are 6+ million reasons that Larnach will be ceded the starting job if he stays. Not saying I like it, but that is the reality 

[DJL44]

29 minutes ago, old nurse said:

The get rid of Larnach by trade because he is so bad makes the assumption that someone else would want him, and the tea would get something of value.

There are other teams who don't have the outfield depth of the Twins. They won't get much but Larnach would make several other teams.

[thelanges5]

A lot of good comments here. This puzzle doesn’t have the right pieces and they need to make some changes before opening day.

[LA Vikes Fan]

I have to disagree with some of the OP comments and I hope they are not based on inside information from the team. Here are the issues as I see them:

(1) Wallner and Larnach are both DHs/5th OFs, not every day OFs. One will be traded, probably Larnach although frankly at this point he is arguably the better hitter but with less upside. 

(2) Martin starts the year as the everyday LF. Why? 2025 stats - .284/.374/.365 (.739), 3 OAA in left field, 11 SBs in 15 attempts, that's why. He won a job. Raise that SLG to even .375-.400 and you have an above averaging fielding, above average hitting, above average running player. Why on earth would you make him a short side platoon bat or a bench player on a below average team, particularly so you can start a plodding, poor fielding guy with an average bat? Insanity. Note that Martin lead off and played CF yesterday and had 2 hits in a 3-0 win. We will see that again. 

(3) Assuming #1 and #2, there's spots for two OFs. If he hits in ST, Alan Roden gets one because he hits LH and can play CF. He and Martin are the backup CFs (plus Kreidler if he makes the team). The last OF spot goes to Clemens over Outman to start the season with GG or Emma next up once enough time passes that this year doesn't count towards FA. Might even be Emma if he can beat out Jackson and Wagaman. 

(4) Last SS spot goes to Gray over Kreidler but could go the other way. Both have a shot to beat out Lee over the first couple months of the season if they hit because they are both Much better in the field. 

Roster/Batting order (w/o pitchers) - Martin (LF), Buxton (CF), Keaschall(2B), Bell (1B), Lewis (3B), Larnach/Wallner (DH), Jeffers (C), Lee (SS), Roden(RF). Bench - Caratini (C/1B/3B/RH DH), Gray/Kreidler (SS/UTL), Clemens (IF/OF UTL (no SS)) Jackson (C).  Jackson. Emma, and Wagaman are now playing for the 26th spot depending on who hits better, how much they like Caratini at RH DH, and whether they think they can find 3-4 days a week for Emma to play. My bet is Jackson makes the team so there's a Catcher when Jeffers starts and Caratini plays 1B or DH, Wagaman passes through waivers and is in St. Paul, and Emma starts in AAA but is up by mid-season.

[Major League Ready]

45 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

I have to disagree with some of the OP comments and I hope they are not based on inside information from the team. Here are the issues as I see them:

(1) Wallner and Larnach are both DHs/5th OFs, not every day OFs. One will be traded, probably Larnach although frankly at this point he is arguably the better hitter but with less upside. 

(2) Martin starts the year as the everyday LF. Why? 2025 stats - .284/.374/.365 (.739), 3 OAA in left field, 11 SBs in 15 attempts, that's why. He won a job. Raise that SLG to even .375-.400 and you have an above averaging fielding, above average hitting, above average running player. Why on earth would you make him a short side platoon bat or a bench player on a below average team, particularly so you can start a plodding, poor fielding guy with an average bat? Insanity. Note that Martin lead off and played CF yesterday and had 2 hits in a 3-0 win. We will see that again. 

(3) Assuming #1 and #2, there's spots for two OFs. If he hits in ST, Alan Roden gets one because he hits LH and can play CF. He and Martin are the backup CFs (plus Kreidler if he makes the team). The last OF spot goes to Clemens over Outman to start the season with GG or Emma next up once enough time passes that this year doesn't count towards FA. Might even be Emma if he can beat out Jackson and Wagaman. 

(4) Last SS spot goes to Gray over Kreidler but could go the other way. Both have a shot to beat out Lee over the first couple months of the season if they hit because they are both Much better in the field. 

Roster/Batting order (w/o pitchers) - Martin (LF), Buxton (CF), Keaschall(2B), Bell (1B), Lewis (3B), Larnach/Wallner (DH), Jeffers (C), Lee (SS), Roden(RF). Bench - Caratini (C/1B/3B/RH DH), Gray/Kreidler (SS/UTL), Clemens (IF/OF UTL (no SS)) Jackson (C).  Jackson. Emma, and Wagaman are now playing for the 26th spot depending on who hits better, how much they like Caratini at RH DH, and whether they think they can find 3-4 days a week for Emma to play. My bet is Jackson makes the team so there's a Catcher when Jeffers starts and Caratini plays 1B or DH, Wagaman passes through waivers and is in St. Paul, and Emma starts in AAA but is up by mid-season.

This makes sense to me.  I thought they signed Larnach because they thought they could get something in trade.  Larnach and Wallner on the same roster does not make sense given the other options with a more complete game.  I really hope to see a productive Jenkins or Rodriguez in one of those spots by June. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

Roster/Batting order (w/o pitchers) - Martin (LF), Buxton (CF), Keaschall(2B), Bell (1B), Lewis (3B), Larnach/Wallner (DH), Jeffers (C), Lee (SS), Roden(RF)

I think you'll see Martin ahead of Buxton in the order but Martin will bat 9th with Buxton batting 1st.

Buxton, Keaschall, Bell, Lewis, Wallner, Jeffers, Larnach, Lee, Martin

[Franz]

Is there any indication that Keaschall will be evaluated in the outfield this spring?