The Houston Astros Want Lefty Bats? The Minnesota Twins Have Plenty.

[Matthew Lenz]

Image courtesy of © Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

The Houston Astros have been in the rumor mill for the vast majority of the offseason, specifically as teams kick the tires on third baseman Isaac Paredes. Earlier this week, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reported that the team “is seeking an outfielder who hits from the left side in any potential package for Paredes.” Unless you've been buried under a rock since last year’s trade deadline, you're well aware that the Minnesota Twins have an excessive amount of left-handed hitting outfielders.

They have high-value prospects like Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez who will likely debut in 2026. They have middle-of-the-road veterans like Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach, who have some upside but also come with their fair share of warts. They also have lower-value options like James Outman, Alan Roden, and Hendry Mendez, of whom Outman and Roden are ready to compete at the big league level (Outman is actually out of options). Finally, right or wrong, the Twins have an owner who believes they'll be competitive in 2026.

While the Twins have a plethora of options to meet the needs of the Astros, you now may be asking yourself, “But isn't Royce Lewis our everyday third baseman?” To which I’d say, “meh, I guess”.

 

While Lewis is penciled in as the team’s primary third baseman in 2026, I simply think he no longer has the leverage to demand where he plays. Additionally, as a client of Scott Boras and someone who has made multiple questionable remarks publicly, I no longer care to try to keep him happy. He's under team control through the 2029 season, and I already think it's a long shot that he re-signs with the Twins without a dramatic turnaround within the clubhouse and organization as a whole. If we turn to the productivity on the field, his inconsistencies at the plate have led to a career .762 OPS and a 110 wRC+, both buoyed by a 2023 breakout.

Since the start of 2024, those numbers have dropped to .705 and 94, respectively…I guess you can't call it a slump if that's what you typically produce. Moreover, he's played a passable third base, but not to the point where moving him to second (we’ll get to Luke Keaschall next) would make the infield meaningfully worse than it's already going to be. Simply put, adding Paredes bat to the lineup would more than make up for the downgrade in defense at the hot corner, and it would help Tom Pohlad meet his unrealistic expectations for the 2026 season.

Of course, if Lewis shifts to the keystone, then Keaschall gets booted from his primary position. However, there are already questions on whether second base can be his long-term home. While he exploded on the scene at the plate in 2025, he finished T-14th among second basemen with at least 150 attempts with -2 Outs Above Average (OAA) in 2025 (he barely met this threshold with 156 attempts). So, then, where does he go, you ask? To the corner outfield. While his experience was limited to just 173 ⅔ innings across 20 games, Keaschall has patrolled centerfield for both the Double-A Wichita and High-A Cedar Rapids in 2024. In the long run, many baseball minds think he's destined to call the outfield grass his home, and a trade for Paredes could open a spot sooner rather than later.

However, a left-handed hitting outfielder is not the only match the Twins have. The Astros have been tied to catchers Joey Bart, Christian Vazquez, and Victor Caratini this offseason to back up Yainer Diaz. While no reports have suggested the Twins are set on moving Ryan Jeffers, the signing of Caratini to a two-year, $14 million deal ahead of Jeffers final year of team control seems to suggest that's a distinct possibility. If they were to move Jeffers, that would make Caratini the primary backstop ahead of Alex Jackson. Paired with one of the mid or low value outfielders named earlier, the Astros could solve both of their needs while giving up Paredes and a mid-level prospect.

Again, this is all under the assumption that Pohlad realizes this team, as-is, cannot truly compete in 2026. By acquiring Paredes, the Twins add a reliable bat to an offense that has been anything but.

Do you think the Twins can compete in 2026? Do you think they should kick the tires on Paredes? Join the conversation in the comments!

 

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[Cory Engelhardt]

I would love the idea of Paredes. But is he truly an upgrade defensively at 3b over Lewis? I know this season is a big one for Lewis and I'm hopeful, but if they are bringing in a different 3b I would want them to be a pretty big upgrade defensively there no?

Paredes bat would be awesome here, and it would be fun to see how the pieces fit.

As far as trading Larnach and/or other lefty corner bats, go for it.

[LambchoP]

I wonder what they would give us for Larnach and Jackson. Just getting rid of those two would help clean up our log jammed 26 msn roster. We still need MLB late inning relief pitchers. I know we just got Banda and a few minor league signings, but it's not enough to be competitive yet.

[TopGunn#22]

Paredes has a BBTV of 12.8.  He can play 3B as well as 1B.  Larnach only has a value of 2.0, so he wouldn't be enough for Paredes.  But Jeffers has a value of 12.8 and he's a perfect match for Parades. After we signed Yanier Diaz's primary backup at Catcher away (Victor Caratini) Jeffers has much more value to the Astros at 12.8 than Paredes.  

A deal of Jeffers and Larnach for Paredes and a minor league talent works for me.  A RH power bat like Paredes at either 3B or 1B allows Josh Bell to be a full time, switch hitting DH.  Caratini and Jackson take over the catching duties and the Twins get salary relief for 2026-Larnach.  

Paredes is owed $9 million in 2026 and has a club option for $13.35 million in 2027.  That's pretty good value for a 25-30 HR bat.   

Possible Twins lineup with Paredes:  (If you expect better years out of Lewis and Wallner)

Keaschall-2B  Buxton-CF  Lewis-3B J. Bell-DH  Parades-1B  Wallner-RF  Lee-SS  Caratini-C  A. Martin-LF

That's a lineup that certainly has more potential than one with Larnach and Jeffers and your defense gets a little bit better.  Eventually, Jenkins or E-Rod takes Martin's place in LF (or Culpepper moves in at SS for Lee) and the lineup and defense gets a notch better.  Couple that with good SP and an average BP and the Twins look better in the A.L. Central in 2026.   

[Permanent Twins Fan]

Paredes' bat would be a welcome addition to the twins lineup, and the Twins do seem to match up well with the Astros for a potential trade. One problem that comes up is that much of Paredes power comes from the fact that he is a heavy pull air rate guy who takes advantage of the short porch in Houston. Target field is over 20 feet deeper in left, which would probably take away a lot of Paredes home run potential. Every single one of Paredes' 20 homeruns in 2025 were hit to left field.

[LA Vikes Fan]

49 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Paredes has a BBTV of 12.8.  He can play 3B as well as 1B.  Larnach only has a value of 2.0, so he wouldn't be enough for Paredes.  But Jeffers has a value of 12.8 and he's a perfect match for Parades. After we signed Yanier Diaz's primary backup at Catcher away (Victor Caratini) Jeffers has much more value to the Astros at 12.8 than Paredes.  

A deal of Jeffers and Larnach for Paredes and a minor league talent works for me.  A RH power bat like Paredes at either 3B or 1B allows Josh Bell to be a full time, switch hitting DH.  Caratini and Jackson take over the catching duties and the Twins get salary relief for 2026-Larnach.  

Paredes is owed $9 million in 2026 and has a club option for $13.35 million in 2027.  That's pretty good value for a 25-30 HR bat.   

Possible Twins lineup with Paredes:  (If you expect better years out of Lewis and Wallner)

Keaschall-2B  Buxton-CF  Lewis-3B J. Bell-DH  Parades-1B  Wallner-RF  Lee-SS  Caratini-C  A. Martin-LF

That's a lineup that certainly has more potential than one with Larnach and Jeffers and your defense gets a little bit better.  Eventually, Jenkins or E-Rod takes Martin's place in LF (or Culpepper moves in at SS for Lee) and the lineup and defense gets a notch better.  Couple that with good SP and an average BP and the Twins look better in the A.L. Central in 2026.   

I'm a little surprised that Jeffers and Peredes have a similar BBTV. I would have guessed that Jeffers was 2 or 3 points higher since he competently plays a tougher position. Maybe the difference in contract length with Jeffers a FA after this season plays a role in that, but it still seems off to me. Having said that, I wouldn't be opposed to this kind of deal IF  Peredes can actually play 1B as opposed to standing out there with a glove and is a meaningful defensive upgrade from Bell. I guess it would all depend on the secondary return for Jeffers and Larnach. I personally would prefer a relief pitcher to a prospect. 

[TopGunn#22]

Agree LA Vikes Fan.  A relief pitcher, either on the Astros major league roster or at AAA would be the best addition to a Jeffers + Larnach for Paredes + Relief Pitcher deal.  This makes a lot of sense for both teams. 

As many have pointed out in the past, it's kind of baffling sometimes to see some of the disparity in values that BBTV has for a player.  Especially when you have some familiarity with their value over 3 to 4 revisions in a 3-6 month period.   

[DataNerd]

If HOU is going to trade Parades, they probably want most of their value to come from a corner OF, not a backup C.  If we are going to trade Jeffers, a 3B with 2 years of control would not be what I'm looking for either.

[sweetmusicviola16]

Parades and a prospect for Jeffers and Larnach is the best idea put forth yet. It actually improves the 2026 team. Astros lose 2 years of control on Parades but get two years of Larnach and a needed C who they would have the rights to negotiate an extension with. And if we are in the tank in July Parades would be a decent trade chip still. We would be weaker at C as I'm not convinced that Caratini can carry the primary load and in all honesty Jackson is not very good. This is a deal I can support. 

[farmerguychris]

Why do I feel a money savings idea is coming our way.

You think if the Astros offer us a reduction in the amount we have to pay them each year for them to have Correa, they won't be happy to take one of our (or more than 1) extra lefty bats for salary relief?

They take Larnac, Jackson, and we get $6M in relief going forward - only needing to pay the Astros $4M each year left in Correa's contract instead of $10M?

Sounds crappy to me, but well our owners?

[jorgenswest]

At age 25 Paredes was in his 4th organization. Almost 27 and the Astros are looking to move him to his fifth. I have to wonder why. I would not trade Jeffers for him. Larnach isn’t enough but I wouldn’t add much more.

[DJL44]

50 minutes ago, farmerguychris said:

Why do I feel a money savings idea is coming our way.

You think if the Astros offer us a reduction in the amount we have to pay them each year for them to have Correa, they won't be happy to take one of our (or more than 1) extra lefty bats for salary relief?

They take Larnac, Jackson, and we get $6M in relief going forward - only needing to pay the Astros $4M each year left in Correa's contract instead of $10M?

Sounds crappy to me, but well our owners?

This could happen. I doubt the Twins would get any money this year because the Astros are close to the luxury tax, but I could absolutely see the Astros trading $5M in 2028 for Larnach and Jackson.

The other one I like is

Twins trade Larnach ($4.5M) and Jackson ($1.4M)

Astros trade McCullers ($17.7M) and $10M (what the Twins owe for Correa).

The Astros save $2M while obtaining their LH OF and backup C. The Twins get a pitcher to convert into a closer.

[OregonTwinsFan]

Looks like the Astros got their left-handed outfielder from the Blue Jays...

[Rufus]

Twins need a SS

[chpettit19]

Guess I'm confused on the idea of the Twins having a backup catcher for the Astros. Ryan Jeffers is not a backup catcher. He's a starting/tandem catcher. And Alex Jackson is no different than Cesar Salazar. 

I actually don't think the Twins and Astros line up well on a trade at all, unless you're talking Wallner. I don't see why the Astros would want to give up Paredes for a deal that is centered around Jeffers as the main return. Or Larnach. Larnach isn't enough to even get the conversation started and Jeffers isn't the right type of piece to fit their puzzle. 

The Astros have some fella named Alvarez as their DH, and Christian Walker is their right-handed 1B. Jeffers doesn't help their lineup enough to give up Paredes for. And Larnach isn't a good enough bat to even start a discussion as the main piece for Paredes. Wallner might be, though. 

If you're the Astros, you aren't looking for a backup catcher as the main return for a guy like Paredes. Injury protection for Diaz is obviously nice, but that isn't what you're trading a piece like Paredes for. They're looking for a starting OFer for Paredes, not a backup C. Wallner is who we should be discussing. Not Jeffers, Jackson, or Larnach.

[DJL44]

3 minutes ago, OregonTwinsFan said:

Looks like the Astros got their left-handed outfielder from the Blue Jays...

Loperfido is not a starting OF. That was a salary dump by the Astros.

[Jacksson]

Seems like a prime opportunity to involve a third or fourth team in a trade with the Astros involving Paredes.

[NJM]

Would LOVE this trade.

[rdehring]

I expect GM's don't put a lot of thought into BBTV when making deals.  Otherwise, how would the Odorizzi for whatever A ball prospect we gave the Rays have happened?  What I expect is GM A has a certain need and GM B has a player who could fill that need.  Expect it is more likely based on how each GM views players A and B.  So to move Larnach for a decent return just needs one of 29 GMs who likes what he brings to the table and has a need for a left-handed hitting corner outfielder.

[CRF]

Yeah, the thing is...they would have to actually WANT one of our lefty bats. 

[DataNerd]

3 hours ago, rdehring said:

I expect GM's don't put a lot of thought into BBTV when making deals.  Otherwise, how would the Odorizzi for whatever A ball prospect we gave the Rays have happened?  What I expect is GM A has a certain need and GM B has a player who could fill that need.  Expect it is more likely based on how each GM views players A and B.  So to move Larnach for a decent return just needs one of 29 GMs who likes what he brings to the table and has a need for a left-handed hitting corner outfielder.

No team is looking at BBTV to evaluate players, but it is a useful initial tool because often fans don't value players the way that teams value them.  If you look at all of the deadline trades we made last year, they all were roughly the same value on both sides.

Odorizzi was coming off of a year where his walk rate jumped significantly and the Rays thought that he was damaged goods.

[terrydactyls]

To me, BBTV is a crutch for people that don't want to do research.

[Mike h]

NIf the Twins want Paredes for 1B then yes.  If they want him for 3B then no.  It looks to me that Parades and Lewis are almost the same player.  They both hit about 1 HR/20AB. Parades had a up year in 2025, hitting .255, but his career BA is .237.  Lewis had a down year in 2025, hitting .237, but his career BA is .255.  Lewis is slightly taller, thinner, (more athletic?) and can steal bases better. (Paredes had 0 SB last year.)  I don’t think there is enough added benefit, if any, to swap out Lewis for Paredes  at 3B.  Besides, Lewis has been hurt so much but has flashed so much potential when healthy that I think it would be premature to move him out just when he looks fully ready to go.  
amAs for trading Jeffers, I think it would be foolish to do so until they have an adequate replacement ready to take his place.  Jackson is not that person.  

[Bodie]

Excepting the first sentence, everyone listed in paragraph two wouldn't/won't get you more than a bag of batting practice balls.  Collectively.

A bunch of poor pinch hitters is worth less than one.  We've got a bunch of those.

I assume the Astros want competent lefty bats.  The Twins have none.  

 

But, I'd love to be proven wrong. Anything is possible. Heck, Failvey actually traded Julien! 

[Cris E]

I assume the Astros want competent lefty bats.  The Twins have none.  

Wallner is a fine left handed bat. I'm not sure why everyone is so down on him, but he hit better against lefties than righties last year, he's been above average his whole career, he's the only power hitter on the team behind Buxton and he's a decent bet to bounce back from his 2025 110 OPS+ towards his career 127 OPS+.