How Alan Roden Can Make Twins Fans Accept the Louis Varland Trade

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

It's easy to imagine the Louis Varland trade as one of those moves that will linger in the background for a while. Varland and Ty France landed with a Blue Jays team that went on to win the American League pennant, and any contribution on a stage that big tends to tilt public opinion quickly. From the Twins’ perspective, the return has mostly been discussed through the lens of Kendry Rojas, a left-handed starter the organization remains high on despite a rocky performance in Triple-A after the deal. He's the player whose upside so tantalized Derek Falvey and the front office that they were willing to deal away a local kid with several years of team control remaining.

That's not quite fair to Alan Roden, the quieter piece of the trade and arguably the one who could make the whole transaction feel a lot different by the end of the 2026 campaign. When the Twins and Blue Jays lined up on the deal, Varland was still viewed by many as a controllable arm with upside, and France provided immediate major league depth. Rojas fits Minnesota’s long-term pitching mold as a young lefty with traits the organization believes it can develop. Roden, though already having played in the majors and being a more instantly recognizable name than Rojas, was viewed as a low-ceiling inclusion—a perception that has stuck.

Though immediately brought to the big-league team, Roden wasn't able to demonstrate his value down the stretch. His year ended on the 60-day injured list, after he sprained a ligament in his left thumb on a headfirst slide. Surgery followed, and the timing could not have been worse for someone trying to establish momentum in a new organization. The good news is that the 25-year-old is healthy now and had a normal offseason, which matters a lot for a player whose game is built on rhythm and consistency.

The roster math in Minnesota does him no favors. The Twins already have a logjam of left-handed-hitting corner outfielders, in Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach, and fellow traded deadline addition James Outman. Roden adds another lefty bat to the mix, but his profile is different enough to matter. He is more athletic than Larnach or Wallner, can handle all three outfield spots, and does not bring the same swing-and-miss concerns as each of the other three do. In the minors, he showed an ability to hit for average, draw walks, and sprinkle in occasional power, rather than sell out for it.

Before the trade, Roden was one of the most productive hitters at Triple-A Buffalo, in the Blue Jays system. In 32 games, he slashed .331/.423/.496, with nine doubles, 3 home runs, and more walks (16) than strikeouts (13). That wasn't just a hot month, either. Across four minor-league seasons, Roden has posted a .302/.409/.457 line, walking and striking out exactly 165 times each over 1,319 plate appearances. He also graded out as a plus defender, something that can give him a leg up on the other lefty corner options.

There are still obstacles to clear and questions to answer. Roden has two minor-league options remaining, while Outman is out of options entirely. That reality likely sends Roden to St. Paul, unless injuries open a door. At the same time, he is entering his age-26 season, and there isn't much left for him to prove against minor-league pitching. Players with his track record tend to force the issue eventually, especially when their skill set fits multiple roster needs. He also needs to prove adaptable and smart in making changes to his swing and/or approach. Although the sample is small, his big-league time showed below-average bat speed, a flat swing plane and some issues with timing he'll need to iron out. If he makes progress on those points this spring, though, he'll rise especially quickly in the organization's esteem.

There's an important precedent to consider. Roden was the star of Blue Jays spring training last year and played his way onto the Opening Day roster by hitting .423 with a 1.287 OPS. He did exactly what organizations say they want from their prospects: He made it impossible to keep him off the roster. If he repeats anything close to that in Twins camp, the calculus changes quickly.

The Varland trade may not be judged fairly for another year or two, but it's worth paying attention to the quieter parts now. Rojas still has a chance to develop into a meaningful arm. Roden might be closer to helping than most people think. If he turns his on-base skills, athletic defense, and low-maintenance approach into real production at the major-league level, the narrative around that deal could flip faster than expected.

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Can Roden make the Twins’ Opening Day roster? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[dxpavelka]

If the kid makes an impact is the sky still falling?

[mikelink45]

His start was not a good one for Twins fans, but is he can be better than the incumbents that would be good - except that we are all waiting for the three prospects - Rodriguez, Walker, Gonzales with more enthusiasm.

[Fatbat]

At this point, does it matter who performs well in the outfield?  Give the fans someone who is above average and everything. If it’s Roden, we should be his biggest fans. If he crashes and burns, we get to curse Falvey. It’s a win/win. 

[bunsen82]

I think he can have solid bat.  The defense doesn't look great.  The issue is we have 3 prospects coming up.  So maybe as a bench power bat he has some value.  

[jmlease1]

I have concerns about his ability to backup CF, but I'd still rather see him get a shot as the 4th OF than Outman. Time to find out if he can hit MLB pitching or not.

[LewFordLives]

I'm just concerned he's another DaShawn Keirsey. Good minor league numbers that don't carry over to the majors. Given the number of left handed outfielders in the system, I don't see where he fits in. Like Keirsey, the Twins will probably stash him at St. Paul until he's out of options and then cut him loose.

[Otaknam]

This success of this trade depends largely upon how Rojas develops, hopefully as at least a number three ML starter. Let’s hope we all get surprised and Roden proves to be a solid big leaguer. He’s known as a better defender than Wallner or Larnach, despite Wallner’s rocket arm. Maybe they will trade Larnach and open a spot for Roden to save money.

[Whitey333]

Same old Twins narrative; hope and hype.  Roden might show people he belongs.  Rojas could develop into a good pitcher.  Same old bs only with different names and players.  Nothing has really changed thus far except many of the players the Twins received during last years salary purge are not that impressive.  My question is why haven't we move the likes of Ryan, Lopez, Ryan, and Jeffers yet?  May as well go all in at this point.  The team finished 70-92 last year with those players and had amongst the worst record after the deadline in all of baseball.  Hardly a great endorsement.  And while we are at it gets traded Buxton too, if for no other reason than to give him a real shot with a real team.

[bean5302]

21 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

I'm just concerned he's another DaShawn Keirsey. Good minor league numbers that don't carry over to the majors. Given the number of left handed outfielders in the system, I don't see where he fits in. Like Keirsey, the Twins will probably stash him at St. Paul until he's out of options and then cut him loose.

He's not DaShawn Keirsey. Keirsey had zero years in the minors where he was impressive at the plate. He had a hot start at AAA in 2024 and one of the admins of TD seemed to really like Keirsey personally so Keirsey got pushed as a viable MLB player around here. Keirsey's bat had never been impressive in his MiLB career. His best performance was at age 26 in AA. He was a non-prospect.

Roden doesn't have the speed to cover CF, but he's produced at the plate at a high level throughout the minors. Roden doesn't show big power, but favors a line drive approach which generates some XBH and pretty medicore power output. Unfortunately, his higher contact approach has been totally outmatched at the MLB level. At the MLB level, his walks evaporated and converted into strikeouts. He's going to need 300 or so consistent plate appearances to see what the Twins actually have. Personally, I'm not bullish on him.

[HeresWaldo]

His Savant page is absolutely terrifying. Time will tell, but for what it's worth ZIPs projects him to be basically identical to Trevor Larnach.

Roden: .260/.342/.379, 100 OPS+

Larnach: .249/.325/.404, 100 OPS+

Projection systems vary, but none of them see him as a likely breakout candidate or more than an okay platoon bat. If he can actually play center that would make a big difference, but I'm somewhat skeptical about that. He's fast relative to guys like Larnach and Wallner but he's much slower than guys like Austin Martin and James Outman. If he was right handed he could be a great 4th outfielder, but as another lefty he mostly seems like depth.

[bean5302]

8 minutes ago, HeresWaldo said:

His Savant page is absolutely terrifying. Time will tell, but for what it's worth ZIPs projects him to be basically identical to Trevor Larnach.

Roden: .260/.342/.379, 100 OPS+

Larnach: .249/.325/.404, 100 OPS+

Projection systems vary, but none of them see him as a likely breakout candidate or more than an okay platoon bat. If he can actually play center that would make a big difference, but I'm somewhat skeptical about that. He's fast relative to guys like Larnach and Wallner but he's much slower than guys like Austin Martin and James Outman. If he was right handed he could be a great 4th outfielder, but as another lefty he mostly seems like depth.

I think the Larnach comp is pretty fair. What Larnach is vs. what he was when he first came up. Both slow, left-handed "corner outfielders" with mediocre pop. That said, Larnach has significantly more raw power. If Larnach could take another approach change and stop hitting so many grounders, he could be a pretty impressive bat. Gotta get past that inability to hit lefties somehow, though.

[Cris E]

A lot of comments on how the prospects are coming and this guy is just getting in their way, possibly even if he's playing well. Others complaining that the team keeps selling hype.  Just got to point out that the team is not selling the hype, which is coming from bored bloggers. The kids will be along when they're ready, which is not at all likely to happen three abreast in 2026; odds are that at least one will not be kicking down the door to get to Target Field on Sept 1. And I'm just warning you now, once they have three days in the majors and are not prospects anymore you're going to hate Gabby's defense and ERod's time on the IL at least as much as Wallner's glove and Lewis/Buxton injury time. 

That said, this is about Roden, who I kind of like and hope he has a great spring. If he's redundant and hitting .400 in March he can be moved for whatever folks were hoping Larnach would bring back. Or he can stay and fill in for the inevitable injuries while the kids actually get established in St Paul. 

[Danchat]

He's got nothing to prove at AAA, play him over Outman and see if he can figure out MLB pitching. I get that he wasn't the headliner prospect of the Varland trade, but they need to extract some value out of him. He's another reason why Larnach is superfluous, why trade for Roden if they're not going to play him and soon the top tier OF prospects will come up and make up spots?

48 minutes ago, HeresWaldo said:

Roden: .260/.342/.379, 100 OPS+

I would be very happy if he could do in that a 300 PA sample size.

[Major League Ready]

35 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I think the Larnach comp is pretty fair. What Larnach is vs. what he was when he first came up. Both slow, left-handed "corner outfielders" with mediocre pop. That said, Larnach has significantly more raw power. If Larnach could take another approach change and stop hitting so many grounders, he could be a pretty impressive bat. Gotta get past that inability to hit lefties somehow, though.

Roden is a fair bit faster than Larnach.  27.8 vs 26.1 sprint speed.  Regardless, Larnach has two years of control remaining and he is not a difference maker.  I see him as someone taking playing time from someone (Roden or others) who at least have the potential to part of a long-term solution.  I was really hoping they would trade him, but it appears Larnach is here to support the ill-fated plan to contend this year.

[olerud]

If my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle!

[Mahoning]

What possible point could there be in keeping him at AAA? To hold onto James Outman? If the Twins need Outman they're utterly lost. Nobody else in baseball wants him.

[bean5302]

15 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Roden is a fair bit faster than Larnach.  27.8 vs 26.1 sprint speed.  Regardless, Larnach has two years of control remaining and he is not a difference maker.  I see him as someone taking playing time from someone (Roden or others) who at least have the potential to part of a long-term solution.  I was really hoping they would trade him, but it appears Larnach is here to support the ill-fated plan to contend this year.

Yeah, I do not get Larnach + Bell on the roster at all. Maybe Zoll will shake things up, but I would have expected that to have already happened. Zoll = Falvey, Jr. I expect.

[strumdatjag]

With the name Roden, he should have a MONSTER season.  That is, unless he has to confront Godzilla, Mothra, and the Smog Monster.   By the way, I heard Roden can really fly.   

[LambchoP]

If he has a good spring I wouldn't mind seeing a platoon of him and Martin in LF. At least until Jenkins, Rodriguez or Gonzalez are ready. Outman has no business in the big leagues unless he has completely reworked his swing, which would be hard to believe.

[Patzky]

48 minutes ago, olerud said:

If my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle!

🐜 Or a dung beetle 🪲 

[OregonTwinsFan]

Roden deserves a real shot to prove himself. Outman has got to go.

[jmlease1]

2 hours ago, HeresWaldo said:

His Savant page is absolutely terrifying. Time will tell, but for what it's worth ZIPs projects him to be basically identical to Trevor Larnach.

Roden: .260/.342/.379, 100 OPS+

Larnach: .249/.325/.404, 100 OPS+

Projection systems vary, but none of them see him as a likely breakout candidate or more than an okay platoon bat. If he can actually play center that would make a big difference, but I'm somewhat skeptical about that. He's fast relative to guys like Larnach and Wallner but he's much slower than guys like Austin Martin and James Outman. If he was right handed he could be a great 4th outfielder, but as another lefty he mostly seems like depth.

I'd say his Savant page is pretty irrelevant after only 150 PAs?

He's not Kiersey either, who was a speedy defender who never hit like Roden at any stop along the way.

If Roden can't actually play CF (he's supposedly fringy there?) then it's a real challenge to find him a spot on this roster until/unless Larnach gets moved out. Slide Larnach off the roster and Roden makes a decent amount of sense in RF (strong arm, better fielder than Wallner) if you wanted to upgrade your defense while still looking for potential hitting upside.

regardless, I don't want Outman guaranteed a spot on this roster, even if the team isn't going anywhere. No scholarships, especially for guys that are long shots to rebound. Would much rather see open competition in training camp. Let Roden earn it. Make Outman win it.

[Cris E]

I'd let Outman hang around in St Paul, backing up the real prospects who are readying themselves for a move across the river. He was a decent player not that long ago, and if he can figure things out he's be a useful Bader-like part to have around. He just can't get in the way of anyone who is still moving upward through the org. 

[HeresWaldo]

22 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

I'd say his Savant page is pretty irrelevant after only 150 PAs?

He's not Kiersey either, who was a speedy defender who never hit like Roden at any stop along the way.

If Roden can't actually play CF (he's supposedly fringy there?) then it's a real challenge to find him a spot on this roster until/unless Larnach gets moved out. Slide Larnach off the roster and Roden makes a decent amount of sense in RF (strong arm, better fielder than Wallner) if you wanted to upgrade your defense while still looking for potential hitting upside.

regardless, I don't want Outman guaranteed a spot on this roster, even if the team isn't going anywhere. No scholarships, especially for guys that are long shots to rebound. Would much rather see open competition in training camp. Let Roden earn it. Make Outman win it.

Definitely fair to say some aspects of Savant require larger samples, but there are useful small sample things on there. For example bat speed requires a single digit number of swings to become useful, and we also have enough on him to know a decent amount about his sprint speed - although sprint speed is not as consistent year to year across the sport. His bat speed is pretty bad. His sprint speed is above average but well short of elite. Unless he made these a priority this off-season (which is possible, we'll see in spring training) it's fair to extrapolate this season's likely trends from last year even with small samples. Barrel rate is another story, and if he can get to enough barrels maybe he can overcome the low bat speed, but the lack of home run power and mediocre raw sprint speed are both probably real.

[Exiled in Illinois]

I hope every outfielder we have rocks this spring early summer.  It be an embarassment of riches, from which we could trade to fill other needs.  Everyone excelling won't happen of course, but maybe enough will to make a quality outfield, plus a little trade bait.  Novel idea I know...letting them play it out before writing anyone off.

[Parfigliano]

2 hours ago, Danchat said:

He's got nothing to prove at AAA, play him over Outman and see if he can figure out MLB pitching. I get that he wasn't the headliner prospect of the Varland trade, but they need to extract some value out of him. He's another reason why Larnach is superfluous, why trade for Roden if they're not going to play him and soon the top tier OF prospects will come up and make up spots?

I would be very happy if he could do in that a 300 PA sample size.

Please do not play Outman.  Ever.

[Brett]

It seems like this article could have just started and ended with “be better than Larnach”, but there’s some nuance here. Martin and Roden could be platoon partners in LF, or they could be the 4th and 5th OF if Larnach starts in LF, or if one of the kids forces  their way on to the roster and into the starting lineup (fun, but unlikely).

It’s a plethora of options for the Twins over the next several weeks. I just hope that we roster deserving players due to their talent level rather than their option status.

[Mahoning]

Everyone is so down on Larnach. In 2025 the Twins had THREE players with 60 or more RBI, and Larnach was the third. What player on the current roster do you have confidence can drive in 60 or more next season? The honest answer is one: Byron Buxton. The other over 60 is another player everyone loves to hate, Brooks Lee. SOMEBODY on the team needs to be able to bring a runner in from second now and then.

[h2oface]

Roden was the "quiet" part of the trade? Amazing. Telling us what we saw is not what we saw, and in Minnesota on a fansite. Haven't we all had enough of that?

Roden was the only part of the trade we saw, and he loudly sucked when given everyday playing time, just like he did with Toronto in the show. Spring Training and AAA fools gold is hyped. but nothing about his actual performance in the show, the only performance that really matters.

Martin looked like a little leaguer on the base paths and many decisions in the outfield. We saw that, too.