The Twins Are Waiting On an Offer They Can’t Refuse

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

The pitching trade market has officially gone off the rails, unexpectedly positioning the Minnesota Twins at the center of off-season speculation—again.

Over the past week, two headline-grabbing trades have reshaped how the league values high-end starting pitching. First came the Mets’ acquisition of Brewers right-hander Freddy Peralta. Then, on Thursday, the Texas Rangers stunned the industry by landing Nationals lefty MacKenzie Gore. Neither deal directly involved the Twins, but both could have significant ripple effects in Minnesota.

Peralta is a very good pitcher, but he is under team control for only one more season. That did not stop New York from sending two of their top five prospects: infielder-outfielder Jett Williams and right-handed starter Brandon Sproat. Prospects are currency, and money is never an obstacle for Mets owner Steve Cohen. Through that lens, the move made sense. However, Williams and Sproat are both highly rated, and dealing them for Peralta (plus swingman Tobias Myers) was a bold stroke for New York.

The Gore trade was even louder. Texas acquired the former top prospect, who is under team control through 2027, in exchange for five prospects. Shortstop Gavin Fien, right-handed pitcher Alejandro Rosario, first baseman and outfielder Abimelec Ortiz, infielder Devin Fitz Gerald, and outfielder Yeremy Cabrera all headed to Washington. That is an enormous return for one pitcher, even if it had a bit of quantity over quality to it.

Now zoom out and look at the Twins. Despite constant offseason rumors, Minnesota has insisted on keeping Joe Ryan and Pablo López. Derek Falvey and company have publicly dismissed trading either ace. Yet, after seeing Peralta and Gore's return such impressive hauls, it's only prudent to reconsider.

Ryan and López are in the same tier as those two pitchers, in the eyes of the league. In some front offices, they may even be valued more highly. They're closer to Peralta in quality, but they each have two years left before free agency, like Gore. That reality gives the Twins leverage. A lot of it.

Even if Minnesota ultimately decides against moving either pitcher before Opening Day, this week made one thing clear: The ceiling on a Ryan or López trade package is enormous. If the Twins find themselves below .500 at the trade deadline and are not confident in a postseason push, the offers could be impossible to ignore.

None of this means Twins fans should be rooting for a teardown. Ideally, Minnesota enters the season with both right-handers anchoring the rotation and plays well enough that dealing either one is off the table in July. That is still the preferred outcome. But there is another side to this.

The Twins were not expected to do much this offseason, which is why the additions of Victor Caratini and Taylor Rogers caught some fans off guard. Those moves helped, but they did not solve everything. The bullpen still needs depth, and the roster still has clear holes. It also sounds like the team has other moves in the works before spring training next month.

Listening on star players is not the same as committing to trading them. In fact, doing so could be the best way to strengthen the organization long-term, if the season goes sideways.

Even after Rogers’s arrival, another reliever would make plenty of sense. While the Twins have publicly refuted the idea of trading Byron Buxton, Ryan, or López, now is exactly the time to keep an ear out for an offer they cannot refuse. All it takes is one desperate team to completely change the calculus.

Buxton remains a long shot, given his no-trade clause, so the focus realistically falls on the two aces. Which teams might get desperate enough to overpay?

The Yankees stand out, immediately. Boston is another name to watch. The Red Sox were tied to Ryan around last year’s deadline, even if that reporting turned out to be premature. It sounds like both sides have put to rest the Ryan trade rumors this winter. However, they have already acquired former Twin Sonny Gray this winter and have made 10 trades overall. An 11th would hardly be shocking.

Baltimore is the sleeper. The Orioles were quiet last offseason, but have been far more active heading into 2026. With a young core built to win now, adding a cost-controlled ace could push them over the top.

Losing a star is difficult, but a clear direction is vital. If Minnesota is truly open to dealing Ryan, López, or even Buxton, the return could quickly redefine the franchise's future. For now, Minnesota waits. The phone may not be ringing yet, but after last week, everyone knows the price of pitching just went up.

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Should the Twins be listening on significant offers for their stars? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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[Cory Engelhardt]

I think if they truly are looking at maximizing value, then Ryan is the one to listen on.

I'm not saying I want to trade him. But he would bring the most value back.

[Original_JB]

You should always "be listening". The problem is I don't think the Twins are capable of trading for the right players/prospects that will improve the team.

[Cory Engelhardt]

16 minutes ago, Original_JB said:

You should always "be listening". The problem is I don't think the Twins are capable of trading for the right players/prospects that will improve the team.

They've gotten more trades right when they've sold players compared to when they are trading in the buy window. And certainly no one expects Ryan to get extended, so in that sense it is a ticking clock so to speak. 

I MIGHT be crazy, but I can see a window that they keep Lopez longer than his current deal. I certainly see him around longer than I do Ryan in that sense.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I would not have traded Ryan nor Lopez for either of the packages received by Texas or the Mets. Both Texas and the Mets are desperate to compete with more successful franchises in their respective viewing areas. Success is today, because tomorrow never comes. It's always a day away. 

[bean5302]

I think we've seen what happens when Falvey needs to make trades before. He overplays his hand and runs out of legitimate partners late in the offseason. Ryan is a bit special in regard to that philosophy since there are always going to be interested partners for a pitcher like Ryan.

Bottom line, if you believe in the pitching pipeline. Whether it's Bradly, Abel, Zebby, SWR, etc taking that step forward, Ryan is absolutely expendible. Lopez brings back dramatically less coming off a tough year of injuries with a $22MM annual paycheck coming.

From what I've seen, teams do not value Ryan as highly as Falvey. Though Ryan carries a +54 trade value in BaseballTradeValues, clubs have apparently been hesitatant to give up their truly premium assets. Those +40 type players as the headliner. I think that reflects the league-wide view Ryan is not an ace, he's a playoff caliber starter but not the guy you want leading a rotation.

But Falvey won't. Falvey won't put his money where his mouth is.

[mickster]

If they truly desire to win back the fans, then extend both and build around your solid SP front with your young position players and deal from the loaded farm system and you can compete in the weak AL Central.   Getting to the postseason is the top goal.  Once there, anything can happen.   the '87 Twins were NOT the best team in baseball.  They got in, got hot and took home the title.

[HeresWaldo]

The Peralta deal felt more or less fair: good prospects in exchange for one year of a good pitcher, and a Qualifying Offer pick on the back end for the Mets to recoup some prospect value. The Brewers traded from a position of strength and got more than the QO value in return, and the Mets made a win now move because they have enough money that they don't need their prospects to power their team. Ryan and Lopez have multiple years of team control though so they're more like Gore, and unless Washington knows something about the guys they got back that no one else does (which is certainly possible) that was a terrible trade. They traded away a very good player with multiple years of team control for a large collection of significantly less good players. My concern with trading Ryan or Lopez is I could 100% see Falvey making this same mistake and trading 1 Ace for 5 Trevor Larnach/Austin Martin/middle reliever types because gaining roster flexibility and team control while saving money technically has measurable secondary value. The problem with these model-driven trades is that Aces are harder to find than large collections of mediocre major leaguers.

[JD-TWINS]

Ryan is younger & cheaper with not much less of a performance capability level than Lopez…… seems pretty obvious he’s the most attractive. They are a draw on length of control.

Lopez is a high, high quality individual that brings some serious intangible value to the Club. While I’d hate to trade him, he, to me is a big chip for any Club trying to win a Championship!

Team probably has $10M left to spend at this point. Could get KFA for SS and another lower level FA relief arm & go for it in ‘26.

OR could trade Lopez for Duran from Boston (not sure they would entertain another arm?)……… pick up about $14M more to spend for ‘26. With Duran in LF 85% of the time for 3 years, Rodriguez - Wallner - Larnach are all immediately available for trades (2of3) to add system depth……reliever help may be attainable? Go out and sign Zack Littell (2yrs/$10M per yr) to fill Lopez spot and still have a remaining $14M to get the KFA signing and a better reliever candidate or two, OK guys, like Coulombe.

Duran(3yrs) & Littell (2yrs) for Lopez and gain $4-$5M to spend on KFA type guy at SS. I think the gain makes a bunch of sense if trying to compete and not just “dream about the future beyond the lockout.”

[nicksaviking]

I'm still pretty turned off by the collection of players they got from last summer's trade off. So even if I see enticing trade scenarios floated here or elsewhere, I still think I want the Twins to stay away.

[h2oface]

Trading for prospects is the plague of modern day baseball. Hope and dreams never win anything.

[bean5302]

Just now, h2oface said:

Trading for prospects is the plague of modern day baseball. Hope and dreams never win anything.

Then why not trade Walker Jenkins and the rest of the farm for established players?

[shimrod]

"Buxton remains a long shot, given his no-trade clause, so the focus realistically falls on the two aces."

Trading Ryan would likely shorten those odds considerably. 

[srlarson]

Let's start w the following assumptions......

- there will be no 2027 season due to work stoppage, (or significantly shortened)

- The Twins are a sub .500 team in 2026

We need to trade all assets that have limited contracts remaining...build the farm system...and wait for the new labor landscape....drop the payroll as much as possible and let compete w colorado and White sox for most losses this season....

Trade Ryan and Lopez...have the honest conversation w Buxton....and any other major league asset you can move out.....

Going to be long year either way...so might as well build some hope and talent in st. paul!!  

[Whitey333]

That's true why not trade Jenkins and the other so-called can't miss prospects.  We have had dozens of these supposedly great prospects either regress or totally fizzle out.  IMO since they dont appear to be serious contenders this season i would absolutely trade Ryan and Lopez while you can get a good return.  

[Cory Engelhardt]

44 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Ryan is younger & cheaper with not much less of a performance capability level than Lopez…… seems pretty obvious he’s the most attractive. They are a draw on length of control.

Lopez is a high, high quality individual that brings some serious intangible value to the Club. While I’d hate to trade him, he, to me is a big chip for any Club trying to win a Championship!

Team probably has $10M left to spend at this point. Could get KFA for SS and another lower level FA relief arm & go for it in ‘26.

OR could trade Lopez for Duran from Boston (not sure they would entertain another arm?)……… pick up about $14M more to spend for ‘26. With Duran in LF 85% of the time for 3 years, Rodriguez - Wallner - Larnach are all immediately available for trades (2of3) to add system depth……reliever help may be attainable? Go out and sign Zack Littell (2yrs/$10M per yr) to fill Lopez spot and still have a remaining $14M to get the KFA signing and a better reliever candidate or two, OK guys, like Coulombe.

Duran(3yrs) & Littell (2yrs) for Lopez and gain $4-$5M to spend on KFA type guy at SS. I think the gain makes a bunch of sense if trying to compete and not just “dream about the future beyond the lockout.”

I mean, Ryan is about 3 months younger. I wouldn't say he's YOUNGER. They would have been in the same grade at the same time in school no?

[Blyleven2011]

Yes the FO and company should always be listening on potential trade interest on any player  ...

We do know Ryan's value is high but like others have stated his value might not be as high as other clubs view him ....

Do i like trading our good players , NO , but in reality this team is not even close to being a consistent  , competitive or a contending team  so a trade is still possible and we should continue to keep listening to the offers ...

I to was not totally impressed with the return from the sell off at the deadline  , trading the quality of bullpen arms , i would have expected more quality major league ready players back in return ( to soon to know until the 26 seasonis over ) , in a small sample size after the deadline we had Rogen , Abel and Bradley spent some time with the twins to finish the season giving us a glimmer of hope , can't forget Outman either in his showcase with the twins but he'll remain for defense in centerfield with not much of a bat ( just like Keirsey Jr did ) ....

Ryan in my opinion would surely welcome to be traded to a contending team and who wouldn't  , Ryan and I'm sure other players are glad our past manager was let go , let's hope our new manager shelton and coaches can tap into some of these underperforming players ...

Having a new manager certainly can have some impact  , players will play harder to impress in spring training to make the club and players will play harder to remain on the roster throughout the season ...

Can't believe im saying this about this team , ONE CAN ONLY HOPE  ...

 

[bean5302]

14 minutes ago, srlarson said:

Let's start w the following assumptions......

- there will be no 2027 season due to work stoppage, (or significantly shortened)

- The Twins are a sub .500 team in 2026

We need to trade all assets that have limited contracts remaining...build the farm system...and wait for the new labor landscape....drop the payroll as much as possible and let compete w colorado and White sox for most losses this season....

Trade Ryan and Lopez...have the honest conversation w Buxton....and any other major league asset you can move out.....

Going to be long year either way...so might as well build some hope and talent in st. paul!!  

There will be no fans in the seats for 2027-2029, then. Baseball will fall out of relevancy as soccer replaces it and I expect revenues to utterly collapse. If the MLBPA wants future contracts to get cut in half, a work stoppage is the way to go about it. If MLB owners want to lose half their franchise value, a work stoppage is also the way to go about it.

[JD-TWINS]

3 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I mean, Ryan is about 3 months younger. I wouldn't say he's YOUNGER. They would have been in the same grade at the same time in school no?

That’s the important part Cory 😉 ……. let’s just stick with the fact that he’s $15M less cost.

Both have some injury issues that, if acquiring, need consideration.

[TJSweens]

54 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

 

Del

[JD-TWINS]

4 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

There will be no fans in the seats for 2027-2029, then. Baseball will fall out of relevancy as soccer replaces it and I expect revenues to utterly collapse. If the MLBPA wants future contracts to get cut in half, a work stoppage is the way to go about it. If MLB owners want to lose half their franchise value, a work stoppage is also the way to go about it.

Agreed - I don’t think the owners, at the height of MLB’s REVENUES, will shut the game down for a season nor a significant portion of a season. They can negotiate salary issues just as well ahead of time (the deadline for contract). Players make too much money to worry about “lockout” ……. they won’t be suffering.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

22 minutes ago, srlarson said:

Let's start w the following assumptions......

- there will be no 2027 season due to work stoppage, (or significantly shortened)

- The Twins are a sub .500 team in 2026

We need to trade all assets that have limited contracts remaining...build the farm system...and wait for the new labor landscape....drop the payroll as much as possible and let compete w colorado and White sox for most losses this season....

Trade Ryan and Lopez...have the honest conversation w Buxton....and any other major league asset you can move out.....

Going to be long year either way...so might as well build some hope and talent in st. paul!!  

The 2027 season is a LONG ways away, and we’ve been down the path of “this certainly will happen” before.  Yet, when the time came, it was long forgotten.  The only reasonable assumption is that you try to compete every year and put the best team on the field that you can.  COULD there be a partial lost season in 2027?  Sure.  But it is hardly a done deal.  I’m betting that the owners won’t want to take the chance on alienating their dwindling fan base. 

As for tanking to build the next championship team, first of all, this isn’t the NBA, where a single player can make an immense difference.  Draft picks, even amazing ones, aren’t going to play in the majors right away.  Prospects in baseball are a very inexact science. AND, perhaps most importantly, do you have the faith that our current FO should be trying to build the NEXT team?  

[Danchat]

2 hours ago, Original_JB said:

You should always "be listening". The problem is I don't think the Twins are capable of trading for the right players/prospects that will improve the team.

Yeah, last year it was "we have to be wowed to trade Jax or Varland" and they ended up dealing them for Bradley and Roden + Rojas. Not exactly the type of packages I would think of a "we can't refuse this" type of offer.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Identify the right players / prospects...

Get those players / prospects in the trade...

Develop those players / prospects once you get in the farm system...

A lot of things need to break right for the Twins to win a Joe Ryan trade and I'm not really confident in Falvey to pull it off, nor am I confident in the way the Twins develop their prospects. 

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, h2oface said:

Trading for prospects is the plague of modern day baseball. Hope and dreams never win anything.

Well that's obviously not true. If you do it well, it can build up your system during lean years. Hopes and dreams? You're not hoping and dreaming that Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez can win you a championship? What are you even cheering for?

But mostly it's not true because it's 100% not a modern baseball tactic, unless by modern you mean anything after Curt Flood forced free agency on the owners.

[JD-TWINS]

27 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

The 2027 season is a LONG ways away, and we’ve been down the path of “this certainly will happen” before.  Yet, when the time came, it was long forgotten.  The only reasonable assumption is that you try to compete every year and put the best team on the field that you can.  COULD there be a partial lost season in 2027?  Sure.  But it is hardly a done deal.  I’m betting that the owners won’t want to take the chance on alienating their dwindling fan base. 

As for tanking to build the next championship team, first of all, this isn’t the NBA, where a single player can make an immense difference.  Draft picks, even amazing ones, aren’t going to play in the majors right away.  Prospects in baseball are a very inexact science. AND, perhaps most importantly, do you have the faith that our current FO should be trying to build the NEXT team?  

…….and Team has #3 pick this coming draft.

[Linus]

Call San Fran and get Eldridge and a reliever or SS prospect.  Finally solves first base and possibly one of the many starter candidates steps up. 

[Brandon]

Our current team is pretty good if both Lewis and Wallner are both 25-35 HR hitters with 90+ RBIs. lee needs to be average defense and offense and if we sign another reliever or two our own can be around average .  What I'm saying is they could be competitive.  Cleveland and Kansas City or Detroit for that matter hasn't done much to improve over last season.  I think we are close to having a shot with what is left in free agency and what we have in the minors, I think we should be patient and let the reliever who sees the opportunity to win here decide that is more important than a slightly better offer.  

[The Great Hambino]

39 minutes ago, srlarson said:

Let's start w the following assumptions......

- there will be no 2027 season due to work stoppage, (or significantly shortened)

- The Twins are a sub .500 team in 2026

We need to trade all assets that have limited contracts remaining...build the farm system...and wait for the new labor landscape....drop the payroll as much as possible and let compete w colorado and White sox for most losses this season....

Trade Ryan and Lopez...have the honest conversation w Buxton....and any other major league asset you can move out.....

Going to be long year either way...so might as well build some hope and talent in st. paul!!  

I used to be in agreement re: a work stoppage, but after thinking about it and seeing how MLB has gone all in on aligning all TV rights for new deals from 2029 forward, I think there will be a lot of posturing and maybe even a delayed spring training, but ultimately the proverbial can gets kicked down the road to the next CBA without any foundational changes to player salaries.  Shutting the sport down leading into arguably the most important round of broadcast-rights-shopping they've ever had is an absolute doomsday scenario for both sides. 

I think it's more likely than not that a 2027 work stoppage and/or a seismic shift in salary structure don't come to fruition, and I wonder if teams will treat this trade deadline and next offseason accordingly

[JD-TWINS]

19 minutes ago, Danchat said:

Yeah, last year it was "we have to be wowed to trade Jax or Varland" and they ended up dealing them for Bradley and Roden + Rojas. Not exactly the type of packages I would think of a "we can't refuse this" type of offer.

If Louie Varland wasn’t from Minnesota nobody would utter the “we have to be wowed to trade Varland” statement. Rojas, was the chip, Roden was along for the ride and since he’s older, he gets more focus than he should. Rojas is the starter (potentially) that Varland wasn’t going to be.

A younger, cheaper guy that hasn’t washed out as a starter yet, as Jax had, is what they got in return, as well as cheaper with more control.

Jax had just an OK ‘25 - certainly nothing special.

Varland can throw a lot of innings with lots of upside. He also gives up a bunch of HR’s. Louie’s ERA in ‘23 was 4.63 and his ERA in ‘24 was 7.61 and his ERA for Twin’s in ‘25 was 2.02 ………in 23 outings in Toronto it was 4.94. He pitched a bunch in the Playoffs but his ERA was still 4.94, with a WHIP of 1.394 for August/September. He’s a decent reliever - because he’s from Minnesota, fans think he’s outstanding.