Will the Minnesota Twins Reverse the Pablo López Trade This Offseason?

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

We all need to brace for a Pablo López trade this winter. It's an outcome that ranges somewhere between vague possibility and probability, depending on how much weight you put into the percolating rumor mill. 

"Potential trade partners believe the Twins will deal one of their co-aces, not both," wrote Jeff Passan at ESPN. Elsewhere, at the New York Post, Joel Sherman suggested that Minnesota is "more likely" to trade López than Joe Ryan.

Yes, they're just rumors and relays—albeit from well-respected industry veterans. But fans need only use their eyes and ears to recognize that a López trade is very much on the table. His $21-million salary casts a glare for this rebuilding team facing payroll uncertainty, and Twins officials have shied away from ruling out the idea. 

I'm on the record with my belief that a López trade would be equivalent to a white flag for the 2026 season—not only because of losing him, but the rippling implications. That's not a fact, though; it's an opinion. At this point, it's still plausible the Twins will be trying to win next year, and it wouldn't be impossible for a deftly executed deal involving López to support that goal. It'll just be a tricky needle to thread.

There aren't a ton of examples of an established frontline starting pitcher being traded for an established top-of-the-order bat, which is (presumably) what the Twins would be seeking to accomplish in such an endeavor. Incidentally, one of the few in recent memory was the Pablo López trade.

In January 2023, the Twins dealt from an area of perceived strength when they sent reigning batting champ Luis Arraez to the Miami Marlins in exchange for López. On Opening Day a couple of months later, López was Minnesota's starting pitcher and Arraez was batting leadoff for Miami. 

The Marlins, at the time, were in a somewhat similar situation to the Twins now, needing a boost coming off a 93-loss season and viewing the top of their rotation as a strength, with López accompanied by Sandy Alcantara and Jesús Luzardo.

Miami hoped the addition of Arraez could jumpstart an offense that tied for last in the NL in OPS+ in 2022. He certainly ended up doing his part. In 2023, Arraez batted .354 with a 128 OPS+, while earning All-Star and Silver Slugger honors. The Marlins improved by 15 wins and made the playoffs as a Wild Card.

It's pretty much the same model the Twins would be looking to enact, just from the other end. A hitter who can deliver the level of impact that Arraez did in his first season with Miami is exactly what the Twins need to take a step forward in 2026, and theoretically, Minnesota's pitching depth and added spending flexibility could help soften the blow of losing López.

A pertinent question: How does López's trade value now compare to back when the Twins acquired him at such a lofty price? On the one hand, he's three years older and much more expensive. On the other hand, he's under 30, more proven (including in the playoffs), and still under team control for two more years at surplus value. A team acquiring López could do exactly what the Twins did: immediately lock him into a long-term contract, shoring up the top of their rotation for years to come.

That has a lot of appeal. Plenty of contending teams would love to get their hands on López. The problem is that it's hard to find contending teams with high-impact bats with which they are willing to part, which is why these trades more often take shape as star-for-prospect swaps. The Arraez situation was unique in that the Twins had Jorge Polanco and Alex Kirilloff on hand, with Edouard Julien in the wings. Minnesota's front office also seemed to harbor some doubt about Arraez's outlook—which has been largely validated. 

Like I said, it's a difficult needle to thread, but it's not impossible. The Twins have shown there's a path to win/win trades of this nature that ultimately make both clubs better. Can they find a match this time? The Boston Red Sox stand out as a potential partner, with rumors swirling around the availability of Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu. I'm curious if any other fits come to mind.

Sound off in the comments, and let us know what it would take for you to get on board with a Pablo López trade this offseason.

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[rdehring]

Great read, Nick.  Thanks.

Personally, I would take a good bat versus a great bat.  That's assuming the player is both young and capable of playing a good first base or catcher.  Would then want another player tossed in, say a solid young relief pitcher with a year or two experience.  The biggest question to this trade would be if the Twins use a substantial part of the savings to get another good player from the free agent market.

[PatPfund]

I'm with you on the white flag business. And trading for one or two young outfielders when your top prospects (ones ranked on the global scale) are about to debut at the same position is the opposite of playing chess.

At some point we need to either play our prospects to find out what we have, and 2026 seems like a great year to do it. A strong rotation covers up a multitude of rookie struggles, and you can always find someone to overpay mid-season if you need to deal the SPs (after getting another half-season out of them, possibly some gate revenues, and at least a chance to see which prospects aren't cutting it).

[mikelink45]

I am totally against trading Ryan or Lopez.  Nothing is more valuable than front line pitching.

Let's get Gonzales, Walker, Keaschall, Buxton, in the lineup move parts around but don't give up your real assets to do it.  I am an Arraez fan, but he is not going to make the difference in this lineup and I am not ready to say any of the others in the "pipeline" can make up for the loss of our co-number ones.

 

[Parfigliano]

Just play the prospects and find out what they are/aren't.  

[bean5302]

Historically, Falvey overplays his hand and winds up hanging onto players he needed to trade until after report dates, then finds himself out of suitors. This relegates him to bargain bin shopping and he's unable to address the teams obvious needs as a result.

[jorgenswest]

Lopez and Ryan are going to help with the development of the rest of the staff. Their innings are going to matter. They are going to keep the burden off of the pen. Their leadership in the pitching room talking about how to pitch to hitters in an upcoming series is going to be valuable. Catchers are valuable to that room also and they are already losing Vazquez. Trading either will impact the development of our starters and put a burden on a bullpen.

[Greglw3]

I agree with you, it would raise the white flag and Derek Shelton and his very promising coaching staff and the young Twins on the precipice of the majors deserve better.

I think they should keep Lopez and Ryan, jettison Larnach and give full chances to Austin Martin, Gabriel Gonzalez, Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Alan Roden and Hendry Mendez to flank Byron Buxton in the outfield.

I think the decision on Larnach will decide if the Twins want to fully embrace a new direction and improve with this talented group of hitters I named above. I predict that he will be non-tendered.

As for Matt Wallner, he should be considered an "I have to prove it" candidate. A season like last season where he had the fewest RBIs on 22 HR in the history of RBIs being recorded, back to the 1920s, in lieu of a Gabriel Gonzalez, Rodriguez, Jenkins, would be a big setback to the plans of a new day. 

[old nurse]

The central division is always going to be able to be had if everything goes well for a team.  If a trade is to be made that would either be a sign that Falvey and Zoll think that 2 of Abel, Bradley, Festa and Mathews are ready to step up and be competent full time starters and Ober will return to form. A trade could also signal that they have no confidence in the hitters developing. When they said last year that they liked their roster, I took it as a sign they liked their position players they had.  The year that some had could dissuade them, but I think the kind of have a lot of confidence in their process.  That process is debatable. That air of confidence leads me to think their opinion is these players will step. Forward.  Then again, I have also thought that if this season under a third allegedly knowledgeable hitting coach the offense goes flat again it is strike  three and they are all out. 

[Mike Sixel]

I'd want someone with at least 3-4 years of control......but I think trading one of them is fine even for this coming year.....but both? That's the white flag.

[mrguy]

Re-signing Luis Arraez is one of those decisions I wouldn't even be surprised they made. Every media outlet is reporting that he's not as highly valued as people were initially projecting him as, so he'll likely sign for not as much compared to many other free agent options. He's technically considered a "top free agent," so it'd look good from Falvey's position since it'd give the impression that he's trying(even though we all know this wouldn't be that big of an acquisition). And with first base specifically, it doesn't really seem like there are many options on the prospect pool or current major league options to really fit every day unless we fast track an outfielder like Fedko or something to learn the position.

 

As for the other side, trading Lopez feels like a decision they've already settled on, it's more a matter of what return they'd get if they manage to make one happen. While I like a lot of the high minors pitching options the Twins have, I don't know if it's really the time to be messing around with pitching while they've already cleared house enough, at that point it'd really be a gamble on how much you really trust some of these guys. Again, this is assuming a team even takes a trade for Pablo Lopez, which I don't really know have any strong guesses as to who'd be the best trade candidate and who we'd realistically get for him.

[terrydactyls]

Two items.

1.  To be competitive in 2026, all the Twins need is a "deftly executed deal"?  That made me laugh.  Falvey making a deftly executed deal is highly unlikely.

2.  The only mention of Jerran Duran I've read out of Boston (I live near Boston) is that he is being projected to be a 4th outfielder.  I wouldn't trade Lopez or Ryan for a 4th outfielder.

[Mike Sixel]

31 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Two items.

1.  To be competitive in 2026, all the Twins need is a "deftly executed deal"?  That made me laugh.  Falvey making a deftly executed deal is highly unlikely.

2.  The only mention of Jerran Duran I've read out of Boston (I live near Boston) is that he is being projected to be a 4th outfielder.  I wouldn't trade Lopez or Ryan for a 4th outfielder.

He's no 4th OF.....not even close. But no way they deal for him. He's expensive (ish) and has 2 years of control left, IIRC. 

[Doctor Gast]

Lopez dropped into our laps. He was a heaven-sent. It'd be a sin to give him away, which is what Falvey would do. I love to see Arraez's ABs, but Arraez doesn't fit the fast/ good glove model that MN needs to adapt.

[tony&rodney]

Putting aside whether Lopez should be traded, the Twins do need offense and players who can defend and run too. When one suggests the Twins need to add a catcher, 1B, and shortstop or whatever your preference, I want to hear a specific player's name. Lopez doesn't work too good for any available catchers or first basemen. I'm not aware of any shortstops who are available. Jeremy Pena?

Boston would trade Abreu or Duran for Lopez. Abreu is a no for me because he is a strong side platoon player. I would take Jarren Duran if I knew he could accept this move and that the Twins had ideas to move a couple of their excess outfielders in another trade or two. Maybe the Twins could accept Harry Ford and Ryan Sloan from Seattle but that doesn't really solve the hitting woes. 

I'm hoping the possibility exists where the Twins spend $135M on payroll and can add some players while holding on to Pablo Lopez. We don't know where the franchise is headed.

[D.C Twins]

The white flag is already flying and those who do not see it remain in somewhere between the denial and bargaining phase of grief.

Lopez was as good as gone after the trade deadline sell off.... it has been a matter of where, when, and for what since then.  He makes absolutely no sense on this team given their chosen course. 

Ryan is the wild card.... I personally think someone will pony up a 'can't refuse' offer but that is more of a 50/50 proposition. 

 

[D.C Twins]

6 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Historically, Falvey overplays his hand and winds up hanging onto players he needed to trade until after report dates, then finds himself out of suitors. This relegates him to bargain bin shopping and he's unable to address the teams obvious needs as a result.

This...this...aaaaaaaaaaaaaand THIS!

[DMcQ]

6 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Lopez and Ryan are going to help with the development of the rest of the staff. Their innings are going to matter. They are going to keep the burden off of the pen. Their leadership in the pitching room talking about how to pitch to hitters in an upcoming series is going to be valuable. Catchers are valuable to that room also and they are already losing Vazquez. Trading either will impact the development of our starters and put a burden on a bullpen.

Great comment about their leadership in the pitching room! That is why I hope they don’t trade Jeffers. 

[DMcQ]

16 minutes ago, D.C Twins said:

The white flag is already flying and those who do not see it remain in somewhere between the denial and bargaining phase of grief.

Lopez was as good as gone after the trade deadline sell off.... it has been a matter of where, when, and for what since then.  He makes absolutely no sense on this team given their chosen course. 

Ryan is the wild card.... I personally think someone will pony up a 'can't refuse' offer but that is more of a 50/50 proposition. 

 

Lopez would have been gone during the sell off if he had been healthy! Ryan would have been gone but DF couldn’t get the deal done before the deadline. And I agree both will be gone at some point next year. I hope not as I think they could help the rest of the staff develop, but knowing the cost cutting culture now DF will have to deal them to save payroll.

[DMcQ]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Lopez dropped into our laps. He was a heaven-sent. It'd be a sin to give him away, which is what Falvey would do. I love to see Arraez's ABs, but Arraez doesn't fit the fast/ good glove model that MN needs to adapt.

What you are suggesting is that Arraez’s glove isn’t good enough, but I think his bat might fit in good with the small ball DF wants us to play.  But he might be too expensive for the current MN Twins. I agree Lopez was a heaven-sent player!  I would hate to see him go! 

[SteveLV]

Twins extend Ryan?

In what alternate universe?

First, they wont spend the money.

Second, they probably shouldn't as he would be getting paid big $ for his ages 32-3? years.

Only big market teams can afford those kind of gambles.

It's one thing to sink money into an older veteran position player.  It is entirely another to do so for a pitcher who is literally one pitch away from being on the DL with a career-threatening injury.

So I don't think it will happen, nor do I think this franchise should do so anyways.

[DocBauer]

Here is the rub in a trade of Lopez, or Ryan, for offensive help. You weaken the rotation, while still trying to rebuild the bullpen, and who do you actually get back?

OK, they get a big OF bat from Boston, for example. How much does that bat cost, and how much control do you have? Plus, you already have Buxton, top prospect Jenkins getting very close, and Rodriguez is healthy and tearing it up in Winter Ball. You also have Martin appearing to have turned a corner, and you just traded for a not great, but solid player in near-rookie Roden. And unless he converts to 1B, Gonzalez had a hell of a 2025 and is also close to being ready. And while Mendez just might convert to 1B...and I like that idea...Wallner rebounding to his previous form as the primary DH is a fairly decent bet.

So how does this proposed OF really fit?

Do the Twins give up the 26yo Lewis who actually had the healthiest season he's had so far and might be ready to finally be a solid piece of the lineup, if not a great piece? Do you move him to 1B even though his defense really improved last season?

Keaschal appears to be a very good, young player and your probably 2B for the next X number of years. IF his arm doesn't bounce back, he could end up being the 1B we've been lacking. (A good, productive player at 1B, even if he isn't a power hitter is still valuable).

Lee is still only 25yo next season and offers some potential, but maybe he moves to a different spot, or becomes a 4 position utility player. But we also have K-Pepper as a top SS prospect who might be ready to debut mid 2026. But he could also be a quality 3B or 2B.

So does a trade for a high end young SS make sense? Maybe. Maybe not. But it probably makes more sense than another OF maybe?

A top, talented, young SS and a top, talented, young Catcher to front a Lopez/Ryan trade? With another solid pitching prospect as the #3 who's in AA? That might make sense.

You fortify the INF and the CATCHER position, add another young arm, even though you short the rotation and hope Ober is back...odds say that will happen...and hope the other young SP options turn a corner.

Is there someone out there that can make that happen? If so, I can see a move taking place. 

But IMO, you keep your rotation...quality top of the rotation SP is the hardest thing to find/develop...and you play the young talent and see what you've actually got. Naturally, you need to add a couple of pieces to the roster and focus on the pen.

But that all comes down again to ownership and the payroll. It's absolutely STUNNING to me that we are almost begging for a payroll of $120-130M for 2026 when the Twins were at $160M for 2023 and the league average is expected to be about $180M in 2026!

The math isn't hard. After arbitration, and Larnach expectedly gone, WITH Lopez and Ryan, INCLUDING the $10M being sent to Houston as part of the Correa deal, the Twins will be sitting around $85M. Depending on which calculation you want to use...calculations vary slightly on different sites...the 2025 team began the year between $138-142M. A $120M payroll gives them approximately $35M to add some talent and depth to the 2026 team. Obviously, around $45M for additions with a $130M payroll.

Not only are BOTH of those figures LESS than opening day 2025, but are between $50-60M LESS than the expected league average for 2026. With the exception of 2023, and I believe 2011, the Twins have generally been about 75-77% of league average payroll for the past couple of decades.

A $130M payroll next season puts them at approximately 72% of the league average. Before a single ticket is sold, before concessions, parking, merchandise sold, or local advertising deals, the Twins get something close to that number from MLB.

We also have 2 new minority ownership groups joining in. If ownership lowers payroll even further, then they just don't give a damn. And I'm NOT trying to hijack the OP from Nick's intended purpose. I just remain frustrated and stunned that we have to have these types of discussions.

I'm just flabbergasted that a mostly new staff, talent on hand...some of whom need to take a step forward for sure...and a rather large group of talented prospects set to debut, and a not inconsequential $35-45M to spend augmenting the 2026 team should have ANYONE concerned about trading top of the rotation SP and just break down the team.

(Frustrated sigh)

Sorry, I'm venting. But if we move Lopez, or Ryan, might have to consider just moving both, tear it all down, and go with a full rebuild. And of course, we all know that works within a couple of years, right? (Serious sarcasm there).

[terrydactyls]

6 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

He's no 4th OF.....not even close. But no way they deal for him. He's expensive (ish) and has 2 years of control left, IIRC. 

I'm just reporting what I'm hearing out of Boston.

[SteveLV]

If the Twins cut payroll by moving any combination of Lopez, Ryan or even Buxton, I would like to see a few of the preemptive extensions to players like Jenkins who the Twins FO thinks are prime building blocks for the future. 

[Doctor Gast]

12 hours ago, DMcQ said:

What you are suggesting is that Arraez’s glove isn’t good enough, but I think his bat might fit in good with the small ball DF wants us to play.  But he might be too expensive for the current MN Twins. I agree Lopez was a heaven-sent player!  I would hate to see him go! 

By his glove, I mean he doesn't have range to play 2B, his bat doesn't play at 1B or DH & he clogs the bases because we can't count on anyone to hit HRs after him. IMO, because of this it'd be difficult to warrant his contract

[Bodie]

17 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

Two items.

1.  To be competitive in 2026, all the Twins need is a "deftly executed deal"?  That made me laugh.  Falvey making a deftly executed deal is highly unlikely.

2.  The only mention of Jerran Duran I've read out of Boston (I live near Boston) is that he is being projected to be a 4th outfielder.  I wouldn't trade Lopez or Ryan for a 4th outfielder.

Not how I want to see "Falvey" and "executed" structured in a sentence...

[CBtwinsfan]

not interested at all in trading for a left handed outfielder. We have a glutton of young outfielders already and we don't need any more.  They wouldn't be good enough to lose our opening day starter.

[Doctor Gast]

21 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

By his glove, I mean he doesn't have range to play 2B, his bat doesn't play at 1B or DH & he clogs the bases because we can't count on anyone to hit HRs after him. IMO, because of this it'd be difficult to warrant his contract

It's too bad that Arraez hurt his knees in the MiLB. He could have been the next Rod Carew.

[Elliot]

On 11/20/2025 at 1:21 PM, Greglw3 said:

As for Matt Wallner, he should be considered an "I have to prove it" candidate. A season like last season where he had the fewest RBIs on 22 HR in the history of RBIs being recorded, back to the 1920s, in lieu of a Gabriel Gonzalez, Rodriguez, Jenkins, would be a big setback to the plans of a new day. 

I agree with the "prove it year" concept for Wallner. Early in his career Tom Brunansky had a similar type of year.  His 71 point higher OPS than Wallner's is almost exactly the difference in batting average (.272 to .202). Very reflective of the feast or famine type of approach today vs the the 80's approach that favored an occassinal base hit in a timely manner. Wallner gets alot of walks, but it wouldn't hurt him to learn to make a ittle more contact.

Matt Wallner 2025 - 22 HR 40 RBI  .775 OPS in his 4th year, 3rd full year

Tom Brunansky 1982  20 HR  46 RBI  .846 OPS in his  2nd year, first full year

The same " prove it year comment" could be made for Lewis, Lee, Larnach, Clemens, Jullien,  Martin, ...  Unfortunately, they have a large number of everyday players who have undeperformed when compared to reasonable expectations.

The real question is going to be the decision to part ways with some of these palyers when they are at a low point in trade value, or give them one more "prove it year" while blocking young players such as Jenkins, Rodriguez, and Gonzalez.

Falvey and co. will be second guessed no matter what route they take.

[tony&rodney]

4 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

It's too bad that Arraez hurt his knees in the MiLB. He could have been the next Rod Carew.

Arraez never had any speed even before he injured his knees and was never a good base-runner. He also never had any gap power. Finally, Arraez never approached average as a defensive player. A reason Arraez was off the radar as a prospect was because he was a singles hitter only. He did win a minor laegue batting title. Arraez did have ACL surgery but it was in the 21st century and coming back from ACL is very doable in almost all circumstances today. This isn't the 1960s and 1970s where knee surgeries were basically a fillet job trying get a person back to walking again. Carew had ACL surgery and never recovered his speed, although he stole as many as 49 bases due to skill.

Arraez is a great success story because he took his opportunity and proved to be a very tough out, crowd pleaser because of his hustle and style, and then he hit, hit, hit. I'm a believer that there is value in a singles hitter if the players around the guy can pick up the slack but there is also a ceiling on what any team will pay such a player. 

In actual fact there are zero similarities between Rod Carew and Luis Arraez besides the fact that they both won batting titles. Then again, it never works really very well to compare a player to a Hall of Fame guy without some very specific qualifiers.

I do appreciate your enthusiasm for Arraez and the Twins could use an interesting player or two worth watching like Arraez.

To the post though ... Does Duran work for Lopez? Tong plus for Lopez? I really doubt the front office is even having conversations with other teams, although I have to believe teams are calling the Twins only to be put off the subject.