The Twins' Reluctance to Rebuild, and Whether It Will Remain This Winter

[tony&rodney]

4 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I believe I see the method in the madness, and a hint of a plan, but I remain unsure at this time.

Really? Please tell everyone else who cannot see what direction the team is headed. 

[Danchat]

27 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

Does ONE really bad season necessitate a rebuild?

They've had severely disappointing outcomes in three of the last four years, one playoff appearance in the past five years. 

[old nurse]

I a not sure but when a team trades a player and picks up most of the salary I don’t think that player was anything more than the other team dumping a player. Still people will say DeScalfini was brought here for a purpose or was the centerpiece of the trade 

The Max Kepler non trades resurface once again. He was a 1,5- 2 war player. In what universe does that net anything bit a lotto ticket?

There are really only 4 veteran players the Twins could trade. One has a no trade clause. To trade them for prospect like Miami does is not the way to build anything. 

[Major League Ready]

7 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Does ONE really bad season necessitate a rebuild?

Absolutely not.  Making changes in any business should be a product of critically evaluating the current state and developing a well-reasoned projection for the future state.  The current state of the Minnesota Twins is that they are below average in the corner OF positions, 1B/3B and SS.  They also have an exceptionally poor BP.  

So the question is can that be fixed in free agency.  The answer is that they could not come close to fixing their problems through free agents.   How about trades.  There has not been a team in the bottom half of revenue that has ever solved this scenario through trades or a combination of trades and free agency.

The next question is how well positioned for a rebuild while understanding prospects don’t work out.  Here is how I see the Twins position.

1. They can keep Ober and they have Bradley / Matthews / SWR / Abel at the major league level with several prospects likely to be ready over the next two seasons.
2. They have several OF prospects with a much higher ceiling than their current corner OFers.  They need to transition the corner spots.  It’s a matter of how aggressively they do it.
3. We are very weak at SS and have a very good prospect near ready.
4. The best way for the Twins to build a BP is from BP is from numerous starting pitching candidates being transitioned.  That’s much easier to do in rebuild mode.  
5. They have a deep farm system and two very good trade assets that would add potential impact players.  They also have the #4 pick in the 2026 draft.
6. Building this way would leave payroll open for a significant FA addition.

The Twins are in an ideal position for a rebuild.  They already have several promising young players here and several more that are close.  That’s generally not the case with a rebuilding team.  Perhaps most importantly, the realistic evaluation of 2026 is that they are not contending, not even close.  They might have a shot at being in the mix in 2027 if things go really well with young players in which case they will be pretty good even if they are in rebuild mode.  There is also the question of the 2027 season being severally shortened.  Then, there is a significant future cost of keeping Ryan / Lopez to consider.  A half-hearted rebuild diminishes the impact of rebuilding as does giving up future assets for a poor shot in 2026-27.  That would be short-sighted and most likely to result in continued mediocrity.   

[dxpavelka]

6 hours ago, Danchat said:

They've had severely disappointing outcomes in three of the last four years, one playoff appearance in the past five years. 

Obviously necessitates a need for changes and improvement but a re-build is a completely different animal.  I've said for years that you don't get better when your best players are playing for other  teams.  Did we get better when we made those deals at the deadline?  If you tell me that those moves were something that in the long term will make us better, I'm fine with them and support them.  Of course if that is the case than why are we bitching about those moves.  A rebuild would most likely mean moving, not one, but TWO, front line starters.  Guys that are hard to come by and guys the likes of whom a return to competing would likely require us to go out and get. Another question I've asked and am still waiting for an answer to is "When is the last time this team moved a front line starting pitcher and 'won the deal'?"  I'll wait.  I'll continue to wait for that answer.

[dxpavelka]

9 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Absolutely not.  Making changes in any business should be a product of critically evaluating the current state and developing a well-reasoned projection for the future state.  The current state of the Minnesota Twins is that they are below average in the corner OF positions, 1B/3B and SS.  They also have an exceptionally poor BP.  

So the question is can that be fixed in free agency.  The answer is that they could not come close to fixing their problems through free agents.   How about trades.  There has not been a team in the bottom half of revenue that has ever solved this scenario through trades or a combination of trades and free agency.

The next question is how well positioned for a rebuild while understanding prospects don’t work out.  Here is how I see the Twins position.

1. They can keep Ober and they have Bradley / Matthews / SWR / Abel at the major league level with several prospects likely to be ready over the next two seasons.
2. They have several OF prospects with a much higher ceiling than their current corner OFers.  They need to transition the corner spots.  It’s a matter of how aggressively they do it.
3. We are very weak at SS and have a very good prospect near ready.
4. The best way for the Twins to build a BP is from BP is from numerous starting pitching candidates being transitioned.  That’s much easier to do in rebuild mode.  
5. They have a deep farm system and two very good trade assets that would add potential impact players.  They also have the #4 pick in the 2026 draft.
6. Building this way would leave payroll open for a significant FA addition.

The Twins are in an ideal position for a rebuild.  They already have several promising young players here and several more that are close.  That’s generally not the case with a rebuilding team.  Perhaps most importantly, the realistic evaluation of 2026 is that they are not contending, not even close.  They might have a shot at being in the mix in 2027 if things go really well with young players in which case they will be pretty good even if they are in rebuild mode.  There is also the question of the 2027 season being severally shortened.  Then, there is a significant future cost of keeping Ryan / Lopez to consider.  A half-hearted rebuild diminishes the impact of rebuilding as does giving up future assets for a poor shot in 2026-27.  That would be short-sighted and most likely to result in continued mediocrity.   

You mentioned but didn't address or state an opinion on the Ryan / Lopez situations.  Let's be clear, they are the elephant in the room and will be until they are moved or extended.  Honestly, extending will never be more cost effective than doing so right now.  Might require some creativity regarding 2027 but if COULD be done.  I keep asking when the last time this team has moved a front line starting pitcher and actually "won" the deal.  Haven't gotten any answers.  I mostly agree with your assessment above.  I think the pieces are in place but a lot of hope that those young guys make the jump and succeed will be needed.  I have a little more faith in Brooks Lee than most, mostly because I place a little more value in his ability to catch the baseball and throw it to first base than most do.  Been a spell since we've had a shortstop not making $30 million who can do that.  I'd like to think we have the guys who can answer the corner OF questions ready to go.  First base is the black hole.  In my ideal world we'd sign Pete Alonzo to a contract along the lines of Correa's first deal.  Don't laugh, he's a Boras guy so strange things are possible.  Even as a one or two year bridge to Hendry Mendez at the spot.  OR throw Sabato in and see if he can swim.  Bottom line is I don't see the situation as nearly as dire as most.  It's only November but it's been a couple weeks since the World Series ended but PLAY BALL.

[karcherd]

I haven't seen a plan from this front office in at least five years.  I have always been able to at least get a sense of a plan from this team and I have been following this team since the 70's.  And  I don't trust Falvey to execute a plan if he really has one.  We are in this mess under his watch.  He has not managed his assets well, he has been given record payrolls for the Twins that were in the middle of the pack for MLB and has one playoff series win to show for it.  I was hoping not necessarily expecting an honest review of the whole organization to understand what they are doing right and what needs to be done differently.  Based on the hiring of Shelton and keeping many of the same coaches, this hasn't happened.  We are just rearranging the chairs on the Titanic.  So no matter how they move forward, I am not sure it will result in success this year or even in the next few years because Falvey is not the answer to put this organization in a position to succeed.  And where I blame the owners is if they truly don't know their budget now at the beginning of the baseball business year that is business malpractice and Falvey is not to be blamed for that.

[Riverbrian]

Let's just use the 142 million we spent last year on payroll. If I were to guess... I'd assume that 142 is over budget but let's just use that number for example purposes. 

Just rough math... nothing fancy... just for illustration purposes.

A. If you have 18 pre-arb players making the minimum at 760K. That adds up to $13.68 million... subtract the 13.68 from the 142 million and it leaves you with 128.32 Million to spend on the remaining 8 roster spots... this averages $16.04 million per for those 8 players. To be fair... I'll include the 74.23 million made in 2025 for 3 players Correa, Lopez and Buxton. Include those 3 big contract obligations and you have $54.09 to spend on 5 players. This averages 10.82 million per. 

B. If you have 8 pre-arb players making the minimum at 760K... just like the Twins opened up 2025 with. 

Those 8 players will cost $6.08 million. subtract the 6.08 from 142 and you have 135.92 to spend on non-pre arb 18 players. This averages $7.55 million per player. When 3 players eat up 74.23 million. You now have $61.69 to spend on 15 players which averages out to $4.11 million per player. 

4.11 Million per player isn't even Arbitration Level Pay. They ran out of money. Every move they made suggests that they were under the impression that they could keep adding salary until we had to abruptly right size. 

The flashing neon sign that you have run out of money and are scraping bottom to merely roster a team is when you sign Ty France for a million and PLAY HIM EVERYDAY! 

Whatever Falvey and Zoll have planned for this off-season.

If they veer even slightly from the direction of example A above. Just hunker down for a long rebuild that may never get here and wait for the eventual termination of the front office.

They better be 100% focused on developing talented players that they can afford so they have money to extend players or the money to actually compete for a talented player or 2 in free agency. 

The current Payroll breaks down this way right now. We have two players (Lopez and Buxton) drawing $36.89 out of the well. Add 11.33 million in Correa dead money and you have 48.22 million in upper end salary commitments. We currently have 17 players listed on the current 26 man roster per roster resource making the minimum for a total of 12.92 million. Upper End and Lower End Salary will eat up 61.14 Million and 19 roster spots. Leaving you needing 7 additional players for a 26 man roster. 

If payroll can go to 140 million. They have 78.86 million to spend on those 7 players at 11.26 per. 

If Payroll can only go to 100 million. They will have 38.86 million to spend on those 7 players and that's 5.55 per. Arbitration level. 

For shits and giggles... Let's say the Twins don't take development seriously this off-season in an attempt to compete or not rebuild or rewhatever when it isn't completely necessary to compete as proven by teams like Milwaukee and Cleveland.

Let's say we go backwards to 10 pre-arb players making the minimum as we not only fill the bullpen spots with low dollar vets and bring in IFK and Josh Bell types to fill development holes. To really squeeze it. Let's set budget at 100 million. Take those 10 pre-arb players and the two larger contracts on the upper end. That will leave us looking for 14 players with 55.82 left to work with at 3.98 per.

All this does is delay the inevitable and will require the same necessity of developing youth the following year or the year after that. It might as well be done... RIGHT NOW.    

For those who made it through all of this. 

It's just rough math that isn't even accurate but regardless of the accuracy... It's close enough to show what needs to happen and it should clearly illustrate the only path that the Twins should be travelling this off-season.

If they deviate at all this off-season from what should be a massive shift toward youth. They will have learned nothing and will be in the same situation that put us here in the first place. 

For those waiting for a new owner who will raise payroll to $200 million. It won't happen but let's say it does. You will eventually run out of money at $200 million as well because without significant minimum making talent, continuing spending to staff your roster will drain even that lofty bank account. The Twins will never be the Yankees, Phillies or Blue Jays in terms of financial viability. 

There is only one path out of this mess. Complete commitment to youth this off-season.  Not next off-season! It's not about finding one special Jenkins type talent and high fiving your success and declaring mission accomplished. You have to find on average at least 5 major league talents per year. Not all have to be Jenkins type hero status success stories but 5 major league talents on average per year just to staff your team with 15 pre-arb players before they start drawing arb money out... just so you can afford a couple of Josh Naylor types in free agency to augment what you have built. 

This off-season has to... and I mean has to... be a full commitment to discovering and finding players that make the minimum that they can move forward with into 2027 and beyond. We have some catching up to do.

They won't get there by being scared of youth. They won't get there putting all of their development chips in a select few. They need to run multiple young players through the process just to cover for those who are going to fail. Every roster spot is going to matter. 

 

 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

I don't necessarily approve of Falvey and he's made some questionable decisions. But, with that said, he's in an impossible situation. The Pohlad's aren't committed to winning and to make things worse, I don't think there's a good line of communication between ownership and the front office. It seems like Falvey's kept in the dark and is on a need to know basis. Tough way to build a roster.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

And while it will suck in the short-term, and maybe longer than that, go ahead and tear it all the way down this winter. If they keep what they have and try to fill the roster gaps with no upside, cost-effective older players, that will make the 2025 trade deadline look worse than it does.

[rv78]

If Falvey continues to run the team as he has done in the past, there won't be a full-blown rebuild. He will add around the edges with mediocre players that won't make a difference and the end result will be more mediocre seasons. The Falvey way is half-way in any direction you choose. Add Free Agents, but only bring in average to below average players that don't improve the team. Tear down the bullpen but then stop short of a full rebuild so he doesn't fully commit to the future either. Remember when he said he was going to build a perennial contender? That is still his plan. The only problem is, every year he adds new players that aren't as good or better than the players he subtracts. Which is what he's done and what he is saying he will continue to do. That's how you build a perennial pretender. You can argue it isn't his fault with the Pohlads restricting payroll, yet other teams with lower payroll do better consistantly. There's no doubt Falvey would be great running the Dodgers or Yankees, who wouldn't? But if you compare him to others with the same payroll restrictions, his half-way plan, that he follows every year, has failed miserably. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

12 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I've certainly lost a lot of faith in Falvey over the past year plus. To be fair, some of my lost faith is due more to ownership than Falvey directly. I believe I see the method in the madness, and a hint of a plan, but I remain unsure at this time.

For NOW, I'm willing to risk a little more faith considering the hint of a plan I see, and some recent comments I've heard from Shelton and Falvey. 

Shelton,  with no details given, seemed to hint he was assured of no big re-build. Maybe blowing smoke as he was just happy to have a new job? Or maybe he was speaking with confidence?

Falvey stated just recently that he was looking to make additions vs subtractions to the team. Can we take him at his word? I'm sure hoping so.

Past, even recent, payroll numbers and the expected post arbitration experience seems to indicate room to add. I remain hopeful until I hear otherwise. I don't believe in giving up too soon.

The 2026 Twins have holes, no doubt. And there are question marks regarding Wallner rebounding, Lewis staying healthy and getting RIGHT, Lee taking a step forward, etc. But I don't think positive answers are outlandish to expect. 

There's a potentially really solid rotation here.

There's a lot of top prospects and even some fringe prospects that are set to debut soon in the lineup and the pen. They won't all succeed, at least not immediately, but there is talent on this team, and hopefull talent about to debut. Whether the FO can make a handful of smart additions to augment 2026's roster holes is a major question.

But the 2026 Twins, other than the rotation potentially, aren't looking like a "roll it back again" team when you look at Martin taking a step forward, Roden hopefully TAKING a step forward after a SSS poor rookie debut, Keaschall becoming an important cog, and 3 top 10 talents for the OF knocking on the door to change things up further, with more speed and defense, and Wallner moving to primary DH. And what if K-Pepper follows Keaschall's development path and can be a better SS and move Lee to a super utility role in the near future as well?

There are holes and depth issues currently. And the pen needs a major re-build between what's on hand, who is coming up after being converted, and what FA are brought on board.

I'm not naive. 

But I do see a path for the Twins right now. And that includes talent on hand, talent on hand, and some smart additions if payroll allows.

I just don't believe a complete teardown and total re-build is necessary. I believe a warranted re-tool is taking place currently. And I'm holding on to that opinion/belief until I see something different. 

 

 

7 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Really? Please tell everyone else who cannot see what direction the team is headed. 

2026 World Series is the destination. Whether this team bus arrives at its destination in October, 2026 will be played out during the season, one game at a time, one inning at a time, one at bat at a time, one pitch at a time. Onward and upward. Now I feel better. I'm going for my daily walk next. The sun is shinning and it will soon be 60 degrees here in North Carolina. As the song says: "Nothing could be finer than to be in Carolina in the morning."

[NYCTK]

10 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

Until ownership lets the front ofice and the public know what the hell the budget restraints are, you really can't blame Falvey, Zoll, or Shelton for not trying to strength the Twins.  But

Why are Fans under some misguided belief that they should be kept in the loop on these sorts of details? 

Pohlads suck, but not because they are keeping a target payroll figure from the public. 

[jorgenswest]

I don’t think rebuilding is about selling as much as it is about building. In order to rebuild they need the building blocks and you need to use them. They also need a foundation to build upon.

After the midseason trades no one has more FV45 or better prospects than the Twins. they have 16. That doesn’t include the recent graduates like Keaschall, Martin, Lee, Bradley, Woods Richardson, Festa, Matthews and even Wallner, Lewis and Julien. That is a full roster of players with upside and prospect pedigree. They are the building blocks. Adding more only diminishes their ability to provide opportunities.

The second piece is the opportunity. They need to use these blocks. It may be a roller coaster of their first 1500 plate appearances. They are going to need a manager that will put them in the line up over the decline phase team friendly contract veteran.

The third piece that helps is a foundation. They need a veteran presence from which to build. That veteran presence needs to be established starters and not aging veterans on the bench.

The Twins have the three elements they need to build.

1. They have the prospect pool.
2. They have the playing time opportunity.
3. They have the foundation in Ryan, Lopez, Buxton and Jeffers.

 

 

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

When is the last time this team moved a front line starting pitcher and 'won the deal'?"  I'll wait.  I'll continue to wait for that answer.

Brewers traded Burns and then had the leagues best record. 

You keep asking these questions cause you don't like the answers, as they don't fit the narrative you've already constructed. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

12 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Why are Fans under some misguided belief that they should be kept in the loop on these sorts of details? 

Pohlads suck, but not because they are keeping a target payroll figure from the public. 

Your last sentence is absolutely correct.  The problem is that the Pohlads have done nothing but tear it down in the last two years so there is no trust built up with the fans to think that there will be a decent payroll.  Do Yankees fans worry that the team might not try to spend enough to be competitive?  Of course not.  Unfortunately there can be no trust with the current ownership.

[Rufus]

9 hours ago, Lartwinfan said:

In 2018 the Twins were 2nd in the final standings at 78/84, but they were building up to a powerhouse hitting team won 101 games in 2019 and set the Home run record. They had a great shot at it all that year.. all they needed was a really good closer. In 2018 fell be traded Ryan Presley, who was a really good closer to Houston where he went on to become fireman of the year and all that jazz.. He traded Presley for prospects, Gilberto Celestino, and Jorge Alcala. 
Enough said?

Pressley was floundering with the Twins. He was basically a Jorge Alcala type good stuff, too many home runs.  The Astors changed some things with him and he became a shutdown receiver.  He probably would never had developed with the Twins.   

 

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

You mentioned but didn't address or state an opinion on the Ryan / Lopez situations.  Let's be clear, they are the elephant in the room and will be until they are moved or extended.  Honestly, extending will never be more cost effective than doing so right now.  Might require some creativity regarding 2027 but if COULD be done.  I keep asking when the last time this team has moved a front line starting pitcher and actually "won" the deal.  Haven't gotten any answers.  I mostly agree with your assessment above.  I think the pieces are in place but a lot of hope that those young guys make the jump and succeed will be needed.  I have a little more faith in Brooks Lee than most, mostly because I place a little more value in his ability to catch the baseball and throw it to first base than most do.  Been a spell since we've had a shortstop not making $30 million who can do that.  I'd like to think we have the guys who can answer the corner OF questions ready to go.  First base is the black hole.  In my ideal world we'd sign Pete Alonzo to a contract along the lines of Correa's first deal.  Don't laugh, he's a Boras guy so strange things are possible.  Even as a one or two year bridge to Hendry Mendez at the spot.  OR throw Sabato in and see if he can swim.  Bottom line is I don't see the situation as nearly as dire as most.  It's only November but it's been a couple weeks since the World Series ended but PLAY BALL.

Actually, I did address Rayn / Lopez when I stated that there is a significant future cost of keeping Ryan / Lopez.  Here is the difference in how we see this situation.  You like to say the team does not get better when your best players play for other teams which IMO only looks at the part of the equation you want to see.  Obviously, the team would not be better in 2026-27 by trading Ryan / Lopez.  KC traded Greinke before the 2011 season and actually improve from 67 to 71 wins.  The players they received (Escobar & Cane) made the team in 2011.  Escobar contributed 1.9 WAR and Cane had just 23 PAs.  In 2012 they contributed 4 WAR so it was probably a wash in terms of if they got better.  Here is the part you are not considering, the Royals had their best teams in a very long time from 2012-2015 and Greinke would have been gone for free agency. 

The Royals were slightly worse for a couple years when their win totals would have been in the mid 70s and they would arguably have never got to the WS without the players they got from the Greinke trade.  They definitely got better for 3 years by trading Greinke.  Of course, there are no guarantees the Twins will have similar success but there is definitely an opportunity cost in NOT trading Ryan / Lopez.  The Twins are in a very similar spot.  Keep Ryan/Lopez with a likely outcome of mediocrity or invest in the future. 

Ask yourself this question, if the twins had a real good team and could add a key piece by trading a prospect, would you do it?  The two scenarios follow the same Logic, just a reversal of when the benefit is realized.

[terrydactyls]

28 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Why are Fans under some misguided belief that they should be kept in the loop on these sorts of details? 

Pohlads suck, but not because they are keeping a target payroll figure from the public. 

Ticket and merchandise sales?  Should I buy season tickets?  Build fan interest?  Being honest/transparent for a change?

[Riverbrian]

17 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Your last sentence is absolutely correct.  The problem is that the Pohlads have done nothing but tear it down in the last two years so there is no trust built up with the fans to think that there will be a decent payroll.  Do Yankees fans worry that the team might not try to spend enough to be competitive?  Of course not.  Unfortunately there can be no trust with the current ownership.

I mostly agree with what you are saying but... I'd like to add a couple of considerations that may taint it a bit. 

1. I can't know for sure. However... actions suggest that their was an abrupt shift when the RSN money went away. The key question that needs an answer is. Why did Falvey and Lavine think that they could keep adding to payroll prior to the RSN model collapse? The Twins have never operated with significant budget during my entire life time. Why did they think it would be different with them in the chair? 

2. Yankees fans constantly worry that the team won't spend enough to be competitive and they constantly accuse the Yankees front office of not spending enough. It is just at a different level than what we do. They call Steinbrenner cheap all the time and it speaks to how insatiable the demand for spending is from the fans. There is no end to the amount of money spent to satisfy the demands of fans to get them to nod their head in approval. 

Currently the Yankees are looking up at the Mets and Dodgers and crying poor. The Yankees crying poor actually might be what it takes to get ownership banded together to insist and not budge on a salary cap in the next round of negotiations with the players union.

If they are able to come to agreement on a salary cap with the players union. My prediction will be the salary cap will be set at such a high level that teams like our Twins will still not be able to reach it... therefore not making much of a dent in the competitive imbalance that exists. It may only accomplish a balance between the Dodgers and Yankees. 

[The Great Hambino]

9 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

1. I can't know for sure. However... actions suggest that their was an abrupt shift when the RSN money went away. The key question that needs an answer is. Why did Falvey and Lavine think that they could keep adding to payroll prior to the RSN model collapse? The Twins have never operated with significant budget during my entire life time. Why did they think it would be different with them in the chair? 

Better question: why did the people in charge of the business side at that time - Pohlad and St Peter - allow them to add to payroll when they were facing the RSN model collapse?  Falvey and Levine spent to the budget they were allowed by ownership and business ops.  If that budget was irresponsible, then I can't put that on the baseball side of the operation.  Correa's and Lopez's contracts don't happen without ownership approval.  Diamond Sports Group was already in bankruptcy proceedings when those contracts were handed out.  The business side can't claim they were blindsided by it.   This is an instance where the business side failed the baseball side.

Is it possible Falvey defied ownership in signing those contracts?  Considering that Falvey was subsequently granted more power by ownership, I'm going to say that's highly unlikely.

There's plenty of things that can be blamed on Falvey.  The right-sizing mess isn't one of them for me.

[Riverbrian]

1 minute ago, The Great Hambino said:

Better question: why did the people in charge of the business side at that time - Pohlad and St Peter - allow them to add to payroll when they were facing the RSN model collapse?  Falvey and Levine spent to the budget they were allowed by ownership and business ops. 

I agree... my gut tells me to point my derision toward ownership because my assumption is that the Pohlad's OK'd this direction. 

On the other hand... By Allowing them to go this particulur direction also suggests that the Pohlads were willing to invest in the team and that is going to fly in the face of the popular narrative that the Pohlads don't care that is all over this website. 

 

[The Great Hambino]

2 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I agree... my gut tells me to point my derision toward ownership because my assumption is that the Pohlad's OK'd this direction. 

On the other hand... By Allowing them to go this particulur direction also suggests that the Pohlads were willing to invest in the team and that is going to fly in the face of the popular narrative that the Pohlads don't care that is all over this website. 

 

That's fair.

Regarding the Pohlads caring/not caring, my read on the situation is that while most of the family doesn't care about the team (rumors out of Interlachen suggest this), Joe actually does. But he's just really incompetent.  Wouldn't be the first time he ran a family business into the ground.  I think Jim gave him some rope to run the team, then rapped him on the nose and forced him to pull back when he failed to see the writing on the wall and allowed that irresponsible budget in the face of their crumbling TV revenue.  As a result, he's been under Jim's thumb ever since.  After all, the Astros owner reached out to Jim - not Joe - to get the Correa deal done.  Now Joe's trying to prove to the rest of the family that he's a Big Boy business man that can turn a profit.  Cue the in-process course correction - maybe even overcorrection

[tony&rodney]

38 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Ask yourself this question, if the twins had a real good team and could add a key piece by trading a prospect, would you do it?  The two scenarios follow the same Logic, just a reversal of when the benefit is realized.

This is the thought process I use when guessing which team would be interested in returning high value in a trade for Ryan, Lopez, or others. The Twins losses for the 2026 and 2027 seasons would be gains for another team. Naturally, anyone's speculations can be widely panned as unlikely. If Jenkins was the price for obtaining a player that brought the Twins to the ALCS and/or WS, would you make the deal?

[Dman]

I've waffled back and forth on this one since the end of the season.  If they full on sell and get rid of Buxton and Jeffers I'm not sure I can watch that lineup all year.  Losing two stud pitchers would hurt too.  Granted they pitched without Lopez most of last year as is.  I don't know that you need to get rid of every vet on this team to do a rebuild, but I get that guys that have value likely should be traded if you aren't set to compete the next two years.  Having a likely big labor dispute makes this even tougher IMO.

So yeah half measures might just waste value in the end.  This team does have a lot of young talent on it already though.  If they trade for even more some of that talent might get away from them.  Granted not every prospect makes it so it could in theory work itself out.

We saw what the A's have done the last three years or so and they have hit on their draft picks as well as managing to get Rooker's bat going as a cheap acquisition.  They look like they just need some arms to better compete and should be in the mix soon.  So maybe the Twins do the same and go all in on the young talent. Play two years of ugly ball as that talent develops and hope you found some all star caliber players via those trades and the draft.

Going all in on selling is just so hard to watch as a fan.  It took the Twins a long time to get anywhere in there last rebuild granted their farm was bad and they didn't have any great players to trade last time and this time the farm is pretty stocked and they have good players to trade as well. So in theory things should happen faster this time.

It's a tough call but they might be in the best spot to take that risk and strip it down to bring in a huge wave of young talent and see if they develop enough stars to compete with the big boys. If it fails you might have to deal with a double rebuild.  If it works you might have a World Series caliber team.

[Riverbrian]

5 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said:

That's fair.

Regarding the Pohlads caring/not caring, my read on the situation is that while most of the family doesn't care about the team (rumors out of Interlachen suggest this), Joe actually does. But he's just really incompetent.  Wouldn't be the first time he ran a family business into the ground.  I think Jim gave him some rope to run the team, then rapped him on the nose and forced him to pull back when he failed to see the writing on the wall and allowed that irresponsible budget in the face of their crumbling TV revenue.  As a result, he's been under Jim's thumb ever since.  After all, the Astros owner reached out to Jim - not Joe - to get the Correa deal done.  Now Joe's trying to prove to the rest of the family that he's a Big Boy business man that can turn a profit.  Cue the in-process course correction - maybe even overcorrection

I typically struggle to use words like incompetent since you just can't sit in those chairs without a certain level of competency.

Below the level of their peers is how I would term it and even before I attach that to anyone. I'd be a lot more comfortable with a lot more information. 

Information that I'll never get... therefore leaving me to just spout theories on this website. 

Go Twins!!! 😉

[Brandon]

3 hours ago, old nurse said:

I a not sure but when a team trades a player and picks up most of the salary I don’t think that player was anything more than the other team dumping a player. Still people will say DeScalfini was brought here for a purpose or was the centerpiece of the trade 

The Max Kepler non trades resurface once again. He was a 1,5- 2 war player. In what universe does that net anything bit a lotto ticket?

There are really only 4 veteran players the Twins could trade. One has a no trade clause. To trade them for prospect like Miami does is not the way to build anything. 

Also, these veterans are on short term contracts.  Only Buxton goes for the next three seasons.  Lopez for two.  Ryan has two seasons of team control or two one-year deals.  and Jeffers has one year before free agency, and the Twins do not have anyone to replace him.  

[tony&rodney]

2 minutes ago, Dman said:

I've waffled back and forth on this one since the end of the season.  If they full on sell and get rid of Buxton and Jeffers I'm not sure I can watch that lineup all year.  Losing two stud pitchers would hurt too.  Granted they pitched without Lopez most of last year as is.  I don't know that you need to get rid of every vet on this team to do a rebuild, but I get that guys that have value likely should be traded if you aren't set to compete the next two years.  Having a likely big labor dispute makes this even tougher IMO.

So yeah half measures might just waste value in the end.  This team does have a lot of young talent on it already though.  If they trade for even more some of that talent might get away from them.  Granted not every prospect makes it so it could in theory work itself out.

We saw what the A's have done the last three years or so and they have hit on their draft picks as well as managing to get Rooker's bat going as a cheap acquisition.  They look like they just need some arms to better compete and should be in the mix soon.  So maybe the Twins do the same and go all in on the young talent. Play two years of ugly ball as that talent develops and hope you found some all star caliber players via those trades and the draft.

Going all in on selling is just so hard to watch as a fan.  It took the Twins a long time to get anywhere in there last rebuild granted their farm was bad and they didn't have any great players to trade last time and this time the farm is pretty stocked and they have good players to trade as well. So in theory things should happen faster this time.

It's a tough call but they might be in the best spot to take that risk and strip it down to bring in a huge wave of young talent and see if they develop enough stars to compete with the big boys. If it fails you might have to deal with a double rebuild.  If it works you might have a World Series caliber team.

"If it works. ..."

Therein lies the challenge. Brock puts up these Twins Blueprint pages and we are supposed to guess how to build a roster. The speculation of keeping most of the current roster at a roughly $110M budget doesn't really satisfy hopes for a good team. Raising the budget to roughly $130M allows for some potential additions that may bring about a competitive team. Doing nothing or just playing 2026 with the current roster seems like a disaster. Thus one is left wondering if it makes sense to sell for high talent now and hope for a World Series caliber team in a couple of years. Certainly there are no simple answers or guarantees. I'm not sure that the standard practice of waiting out the markets will work. Being proactive may be the Twins best shot.

[USAFChief]

Nm

 

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, Rufus said:

Pressley was floundering with the Twins. He was basically a Jorge Alcala type good stuff, too many home runs.  The Astors changed some things with him and he became a shutdown receiver.  He probably would never had developed with the Twins.   

 

False. Completely, totally, epically false. Pressly was having a fine season in 2018 and anyone paying attention (like Houston) could see the potential emerging into performance. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pressry01.shtml

And BTW, it's Pressly.