Arbitrary Thoughts: Royce Lewis

[Matt Braun]

Image courtesy of © Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

3B Royce Lewis
Age on Opening Day 2026: 26 
Service Time: 3 years, 142 days
2023 Salary: League Minimum
2024 Salary: $745,700
2025 Salary: $1,625,000
2026 Salary (Projection): $3,000,000

Background:
You know who Royce Lewis is. The Twins selected him 1st overall in the 2017 MLB Draft, and waited patiently through rocky development and dower injuries before he arrived on the big-league squad in 2022. He was a revelation—for exactly 12 games. A second torn ACL ended his season and moved him to the infield dirt full-time. He crushed everything he saw in a truncated 2023, which started a three-year playing time buildup. This season finally proved that he can stay healthy for a prolonged period, as Lewis took 403 plate appearances, the most in a season in his Twins career.

2025 Season:
Now, just how good were those plate appearances? Unfortunately, this year saw a continuation of the 2024 second-half malaise that cursed the talented infielder. He missed time with a hamstring injury and posted the worst OPS+ of his career (83). He also flipped his clutch reputation, turning in a negative WPA for the second season in a row. His defense graded out as above-average—a great example of player development at the big-league level, as his defensive home was an open question for some time. Yet, his sudden, dramatic loss of sprint speed continued. All in all, Lewis was decidedly below average, but his promise is never far from the surface.

2025 Stats: 106 G, 403 PA, .237/.283/.388, 13 HR, 18 2B, 0 3B, 52 RBI, 6.2 BB%, 19.9 K%

Twins Depth at his Position (3rd Base): 

• José Miranda - 40-man roster
• Brooks Lee - 40-man roster
• Ryan Fitzgerald - 40-man roster
• Triple-A: Tanner Schobel, Jake Rucker, Ben Ross, Will Holland
• Double-A: Rubel Cespedes, Jorel Ortega

Summary:
Sheesh. General Lee in 1865 probably had more depth in his reserves than this. Miranda is a dead man walking. Lee is the starting shortstop, out of necessity. The only top infield prospect near the majors is Kaelen Culpepper, who—while undeniably exciting—should be left at shortstop until he can no longer play there. That makes Lee another option at third, but he's an uninspiring one.

Why the Twins Should Offer Him a Contract:
It was just over two years ago that Lewis blasted four homers in the playoffs, making himself known as an up-and-coming force in the American League. For a time, he was the face of an exciting Twins team on the rise. At his best, Lewis has looked to be a lightning bolt—a superstar; someone like Julio Rodríguez, who can both energize a team and provide awesome value with his play on the field. That’s a rare combination, and one that can sell plenty of jerseys.

Why the Twins Should Not Offer Him a Contract:
A lot can happen in two years, though. His 2024 was incomplete and mediocre, a fact largely lost in the grand spectacle of the team’s complete collapse. His 2025 was even worse: an on-base percentage that starts with “.2” is unacceptable for any third baseman who doesn’t possess Brooks Robinsonian defense, which Lewis doesn’t. 

Also, what’s up with his demeanor? A few times a year, Lewis seems to make headlines with unusually snappy quotes, typically centered around money or on how the franchise operates. This atypical mercurialness has always come off badly, like a rich kid complaining his father picked him up from school in the Lexus, not the Mercedes-Benz. There’s a game to be played here, and Lewis doesn’t seem keen on doing so—or rather, strangely, he mostly does seem keen on it, and then suddenly doesn't in short, damaging bursts.

Projection:
There’s no chance the Twins non-tender Royce Lewis. Even if his play in 2025 arguably justifies it, Lewis is still a former 1st-overall pick not that far removed from doing some genuinely incredible stuff in critical games. I remember the two-homer game off Kevin Gausman. I know you remember it, too. That guy has to be around here somewhere.

What do you think about Royce Lewis? His arbitration question is an easy one. If he muddles around in middlingness for another season, then next year's arbitration decision becomes more interesting.

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[tony&rodney]

The hope is that the Twins and Lewis quickly agree, with one call or text, on $3M. Lewis has had a tough go of it in the last few years and his salary is mostly gained from the current system as opposed to his performance. Everyone is looking for a page to be turned for Royce in 2026. Hopefully the agent, Lewis, and the Twins agree quickly and the offseason is positive thoughts only.

[DJL44]

There's an opportunity to buy low here with a contract extension, though I would guess Lewis wants to bet on himself and the Twins want to see a productive season before they offer. His underperformance so far has set his first arbitration award level really low. That will save the Twins some cash even if he becomes an All-Star later (see Joe Ryan).

[BillyBallLives]

"Sheesh. General Lee in 1865 probably had more depth in his reserves than this."

Love someone who knows their history!   :)

[GNess]

The Twins are simply not in a position to cut the production potential that Lewis still possesses. What other realistic option do they currently have at 3B?  Do they need more holes to fill?

[djvang]

I think his very early success (grand slams) went to his head and he began to think of himself as a superstar when he wasn't. He seems to see himself as the voice of the Twins organization and the leader of the team when he hasn't earned it on the field. That said, they should sign him to a 3-5 year contract and hope he develops a more mature attitude about himself. The shelves are bare and he's the best they've got.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Matt Braun said:

downer injuries 

Wait, I hadn't heard about this on top of everything else.  Pretty dire diagnosis.

[Hrbowski]

Somebody's demeanor is not a reason to not offer them a contract when they have as much baseball potential as Lewis. That reeks of the crap organizations pull of trying to dig up things their players said in middle school when they have arbitration hearings so they can paint them as horrible people to try and win their low-ball offers.

[DJL44]

Royce underperforming is one of the things that got Rocco fired. The new manager absolutely must be able to maximize the talent Lewis possesses.

[rdehring]

Where would the Twins have been the past couple of years if Lewis had been the player he could have been?  Or is that should have been?

As much as we all are anywhere from disappointed to plain out p..... off about the Twins, had Lewis been an all-star these past few years everything might have been so different.

Agree there is no way the Twins don't offer arbitration.  So the Twins and us fans will hope/pray that he has a healthy off-season and returns next spring as the player he was destined to be.  Alhough many of us have already punted on 2026, Lewis playing in next year's all-star game could change those expectations, a lot.

[LambchoP]

2026 is a make or break year for Lewis. If he has another year like '25 or has another injury riddled season, it may be time to look at contingency plans for third base. If he can stay healthy all year and have a successful all star season like Buxton just had, it could speed up this rebuild a ton. One less position to fill.

[Matt Braun]

56 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Wait, I hadn't heard about this on top of everything else.  Pretty dire diagnosis.

Definitely was supposed to be “dower” haha

[Doctor Gast]

Royce Lewis has been hurt a lot & put in short seasons, so in '24, when he was putting in a much longer season, he pure & simple ran out of gas. But everybody wanted to complicate everything. Media made a big deal out of "I don't do slumps" & got into his head, saying "Oh, yes you do". Baldelli said, "I want you to play 2B, whether you want to or not". I also believe he was frustrated that he wasn't getting the INF instruction or in '25 the batting instruction that he needed. IMO, Twins don't do enough instruction that's needed, yet tend to get too complicated in advice. I see too much confusion in Lewis's head, He needs to get back to his old confident self. Twins need to better prepare their players while keeping it simple. IMO, Twins need to mend some fences with Lewis & communicate much better. There is a MVP in Lewis, Twins need to be careful & encouraging because '26 will be a very tough year for the Twins & maybe more so for Lewis. How they respond will make a big difference.

[mikelink45]

No choice here - especially when another failed prospect - Miranda is next in line.  

[NYCTK]

23 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

"I want you to play 2B, whether you want to or not".

Grrrr. I hate when my boss tells me to do something within the purview of my job description at the job I am extremely fortunate to have.

One can easily understand why he complained to the media about this egregious mistreatment. 

[Lefty74]

Watching Royce hit in 2025 was painful. His feet are moving all over and he seemed to make a swing decision almost prior to the ball being released. I don’t remember him doing that when he first joined the Twins. He and to an extent Wallner (who also was often out of balance) had swings that made me feel they were lucky to hit the ball.

I also think Royce has maturity issues. That is why I believe Torii Hunter would be a great choice for manager. He has a positive personality but doesn’t appear to be the kind of guy to let things go. He’d force change and accountability IMHO. 

[Craig Arko]

Sign him, then DFA him. That’ll show the malfunctioning little twerp.

[IndianaTwin]

"Dramatic loss of sprint speed" that still generated 12 stolen bases, including eight in the month of September when the breaks were taken off the team. 

[Parfigliano]

2 hours ago, djvang said:

I think his very early success (grand slams) went to his head and he began to think of himself as a superstar when he wasn't. He seems to see himself as the voice of the Twins organization and the leader of the team when he hasn't earned it on the field. That said, they should sign him to a 3-5 year contract and hope he develops a more mature attitude about himself. The shelves are bare and he's the best they've got.

On Lewis "...he's the best they've got.".   That's the problem.

[Reptevia]

Bad on the field- bad in the room. Should be a no- brainer, but this IS the Twin’s, so they will sign him for sure. 

[Cris E]

I think he was hurt early, lost confidence in his body, developed some bad habits trying to hit without using his gimpy leg and then got healthy without making all the adjustments his recovery allowed. When he did get better it took him a while to trust his legs' health, but eventually he started running out more grounders, taking extra bases and stealing when the team was unleashed in August.  Alas he did not make any changes to his swing when his health returned so he kept dancing in the box and flicking his bat at things without conviction through the end of the year. 

I think a lot of the negatives with him come down to the fact that he doesn't like making changes mid-season. He sounded like a brat for not wanting to learn 2B in the midst of a pennant race. He held off on improving his throwing until last offseason. He didn't re-work his swing during the season this year. The good news is that his throwing did improve a lot coming into this year, so maybe if he gets a healthy winter he can regain his old form in the box. But the inflexibility between March and October is something coaches are going to have to work on with him. 

[Riverbrian]

You keep him. 

You give him the playing time he earns. 

Most importantly... You have someone or someones competing with him for that playing time. 

But you keep him... Because if you get him to turn it around. He could be special. 

I agree with other posters though. I have no idea what is going on with his feet. 

[Linus]

You have to keep him but I think we should all get over the notion that he is some sort of star in the making. I hope that he can become a consistently above average big leaguer with the bat and in the field. 

[IndianaTwin]

To @Cris E's point about being hurt the first half of the year, note the following. Still not to his potential in the second half, but a noticeable difference.

Note as well the comment about the halves being determined by the All-Star Break. The Twins only had 66 games after the break and he played 64. I'm guessing he wasn't fully healthy, but for that stretch he certainly showed he could play (nearly) every day. And 66 games is 41 percent of the season, so this is 27 HR, 96 RBI with 29 SB-level play over a full season. 

Personality speculation abounds on TD, but I also get the sense that Lewis will respond better to Buxton's type of leadership than to Correa's.

With the down price he's going to get, this is one of the easiest decisions in the mix. I predict the Twins get an incredible bargain on him in 2026. 

[IndianaTwin]

And perhaps a bit off-topic in that it doesn't pertain specifically to this Lewis article, but hats off to @Matt Braun. This arbitration series has been the most enjoyable TD content I've read this offseason. Keep 'em coming. 

[Trov]

He will 100% be tendered.  If he has another year like last 2 this coming year then yeah he may not be then, but this past year I think he came back way too early from his hamstring injury. Which even if you take out his May numbers, if that was the fact, his numbers are still not amazing, but not as terrible. 

Also, as noted we have nothing else behind him right now outside our current starting SS. 

[JADBP]

Royce can be a spunky player, and when things are going well, it looks great.  But, when things are going poorly, then it looks and sounds bad.  Give him a break.  His enthusiasm and energy are great assets.  He has great baseball talent and skill, but opposing pitchers have adapted to him and he has struggled to adapt to them.  

I agree, he needs significant MLB training, at both fielding and hitting. 

His natural position was always SS and SHAME ON Rocco for jamming him onto 2B without months or years of training.  Each infield position requires unique fielding skills.  Fielding at 1B is different than 2B, which is equally different from SS and then 3B.  The positioning, the footwork, the hands, the double plays, the reactions, the instincts, bunts, pop-ups, communication, quickness, commands, catching, ball-handling, throwing, steals, pick-offs, tags, backups, etc. etc. etc......they are very different for every position (this highlights the INANITY of Rocco's insistence on fielders playing several positions). 

Rocco played Royce at 2B, 3B, SS and CF.  How much instruction did he receive at each position other than SS?  I can only imagine Royce at 2B feeling totally lost as he was shoved into the position in late 2024.  He played a total of 4 games in AZ Fall League at 2B and he "worked out" at 2B in 2022.  That's hardly enough to learn a new position at the MLB level. 

And, hitting:  Like all newbies, when he first came up, opposing pitchers threw him a number of pitches to explore is reactions to various pitch types.  Once they found the "holes" in his hitting, they focused on  this weaknesses.  This is a tricky time for every newbie.  It takes a combination of analysis, instruction, batting practice and coaching to close up these holes.  We do the same thing--the famous data-driven approach for OUR pitchers.  But the Twins seem to be horrible at using the data on their own players to fine tune their performance.  Royce is a perfect example (same with Miranda, Lee, Julien, and others that we gave up on like Ortiz and Rooker),  Again, shame on the Twins coaching staff.  I have heard from several posters that Rocco was long opposed to daily batting practice.  WTF?

Royce will be a very fine baseball player, at any position, with the right instruction and coaching.  Hopefully he can get there now!

[IndianaTwin]

13 minutes ago, Trov said:

He will 100% be tendered.  If he has another year like last 2 this coming year then yeah he may not be then, but this past year I think he came back way too early from his hamstring injury. Which even if you take out his May numbers, if that was the fact, his numbers are still not amazing, but not as terrible. 

Also, as noted we have nothing else behind him right now outside our current starting SS. 

Thanks for reminding me of the specific injury, Trov. I remember folks pretty immediately saying he came back too quickly.

That was probably the case, but if I recall correctly, that was about the time they were in such desperate times that they really didn't have a choice. It was when they signing guys like Clemens and Jonah Bride off the DFA list. His rehab stint wasn't even long enough to play back-to-back days on defense, so it's not surprising he struggled early.  

[Chembry]

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

To @Cris E's point about being hurt the first half of the year, note the following. Still not to his potential in the second half, but a noticeable difference.

Note as well the comment about the halves being determined by the All-Star Break. The Twins only had 66 games after the break and he played 64. I'm guessing he wasn't fully healthy, but for that stretch he certainly showed he could play (nearly) every day. And 66 games is 41 percent of the season, so this is 27 HR, 96 RBI with 29 SB-level play over a full season. 

Personality speculation abounds on TD, but I also get the sense that Lewis will respond better to Buxton's type of leadership than to Correa's.

With the down price he's going to get, this is one of the easiest decisions in the mix. I predict the Twins get an incredible bargain on him in 2026. 

Spot on.  Royce admitted in an SI article he came back too soon from the hamstring injuries.  That along with the ACL tears have changed his lower body.  As the season moved along, you could tell he started to feel more comfortable with his lower half.  His feet still move quite a bit, but he is adjusting and hope he will be closer to the Royce we know he can be.  

His second half stats were much better.  From Aug. 17 through Sept 23rd, he hit .270/.299/.492 with a team-best eight home runs and 24 RBIs in 127 plate appearances. I was happy to see Royce start stealing bases again, but made me nervous almost every time.  I think we all would be very happy if he sustained that production for the year.  

[tony&rodney]

Only thing to add is that the Twins should be listening on every player and talking with every team about potentially mutually beneficial trades. 

We should expect Royce Lewis to be the 3rd baseman next year. I don't think there will be any discussions about extensions for obvious reasons, the Twins would go low while Lewis would bet on himself.

The Twins should find some competition for the infield.