Pablo López Is the Pivot Point for the Minnesota Twins Offseason

[D.C Twins]

"this team needs likable characters and a fighting chance."

(Narrator' s Voice of Morgan Freeman) There will be no fighting chance for the 2026 Twins. 

(Narrator's Voice of Yoda): A fighting chance there not will be. 

Also, Outman, Clemens, Gasper and the ghost of the bullpen would like to have a word with you about this 'fighting chance' 

[Western SD Fan]

We obviously don't know what the budget that Falvey will have this upcoming season.  Every team needs players that the fans are excited about, no matter how terrible the team is performing. The running joke next year will be that the only time Target Field will be sold out will be when the Twins are not in town (Banana Ball at Target Field!).  Even in the late 90's prior to the Twins resurgence in the 2000's, we had Brad Radke, Eric Milton, Matt Lawton, and Todd Walker along with a bunch of kids coming of age and waiting to blossom.  I think from a fanbase standpoint we need to retain Lopez and Ryan at least until the trade deadline to give a reason for fans to come to the ballpark.  Additionally, there needs to be veterans around the ballpark to help some of these younger players navigate the pitfalls and perils of a major league season, especially in a rebuild.  Ryan stumbled at the end of the season and Lopez is still coming back from injury and will be at full strength at the start of next season.  Both cases may need a wait and see approach before they are actually at their peak trade value. 

[Doctor Gast]

The deadline sell-off return was very disappointing. We gave up so much proven talent for AAAA, redundant, unproven, undeveloped & none of them filled a present pre-trade need. I have advocated for years the need for at least one young, promising MLB-ready catcher to be mentored & exposed to our pitchers, so he can step in & take over for Vazquez & Jeffers this coming season. That until now, even after this drastic sell-off, hasn't happened. Falvey is completely incompetent to make essential trades. 

Even after this fiasco, Ryan believed he was traded & the mess of a remnant team that was left, he probably wants to be traded. I would not want Falvey anywhere near making that trade. I'm against any direct trade with BOS, for Ryan. 

For the sake of survival, we could never recover from the trade of Lopez & Buxton cheap contract & loss of leadership & mentorship. It has made me sick to see what Falvey has done & failed to do with my Twins & what he's capable of continuing to destroy this club when allowed.

[Robert Gauthier]

All these arguments presume that somehow if we get a bunch of players, they will perform well for the twins.  I think the development path and the strategy of the front office will preclude this. I’m amazed nobody is written an article about how the hitting coach for the Blue Jays has been credited for the turnaround of the Jays, and he was fired by the twins for lack of hitting. Also, the article recently suggesting James Rawson as a managerial candidate, kind of left off the fact that the twins hitting fell off dramatically after he left.

Somehow, the front office has come up with a theory of how to play baseball that does not seem in sync with current thinking or success.  It is important to score runs to win a ball game. Focusing on launch angle does not magically make base runners appear. Falvy and his assistants seemed to be pushing a type of baseball that is hard to watch and harder to win..  I think Rocco decided that he was gonna go down swinging the last few weeks of the season. Stealing bases and hustle is fun to watch, I actually attended two games in the last week and they were more enjoyable than the games I saw earlier in the year. It appeared that someone was trying, as opposed to swinging to see how far they could hit the ball every single at bat.

[SoDakTwinsFan]

To me it is pretty simple, is the goal to compete for a playoff berth or to compete for a world series?  We can probably not trade either of them and this team can be kind of flirty and dangerous and make the playoffs and get bounced in round one next year.  OR trade them for top prospects and put a world series contender on the field in 5 years.  I'd rather sacrifice years of a pretty good team for one chance at a monster.  A team that truly can compete for a world series.

[LewFordLives]

1 hour ago, SoDakTwinsFan said:

  I'd rather sacrifice years of a pretty good team for one chance at a monster.  A team that truly can compete for a world series.

That's always a popular argument. In my experience of watching baseball over several decades the teams that are rebuilding for that World Series in five years are always rebuilding. That big day rarely ever comes. I'm more of the view that teams should always try to be at least competitive and then pick their spots when it looks like they have a team that's starting to gel. I'm not saying the Twins should go all in and bet the farm on 2026. It's going to be a tough year of finding out who can play and who can't. But I'm certainly not willing to throw the towel in on 2027, and if they trade Ryan and/or Lopez, that's effectively what they would be doing.

[ashbury]

10 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

But I'm certainly not willing to throw the towel in on 2027, 

Falvey essentially did this already when he traded anyone good in the bullpen having 2 years of control remaining

[weitz41]

I agree 100% if Padlo gets traded it's not going to be pretty.

BUT WHAT IF???

The Pohlad's say Fav you got up to 140 mil in payroll to work with?? I know crazy talk....

Naylor 3/60 or trade for Alec Burleson

Williams (closer) 1 for 12

Kelly (starter)1+1 for 15+ per

2 3-4 mil DP arms

Ryan traded to Angels for Neto and Adell

Clemens, Martin and Lee bench

Just wanted to change to a more positive subject. I realize it's highly unlikely, but a fan can dream.

 

[Major League Ready]

22 minutes ago, weitz41 said:

I agree 100% if Padlo gets traded it's not going to be pretty.

BUT WHAT IF???

The Pohlad's say Fav you got up to 140 mil in payroll to work with?? I know crazy talk....

Naylor 3/60 or trade for Alec Burleson

Williams (closer) 1 for 12

Kelly (starter)1+1 for 15+ per

2 3-4 mil DP arms

Ryan traded to Angels for Neto and Adell

Clemens, Martin and Lee bench

Just wanted to change to a more positive subject. I realize it's highly unlikely, but a fan can dream.

 

I think they need to keep one veteran around for leadership and Pablo sure seems to be ideal for that role.  They can entertain offers at the deadline and see if another team is willing to give up a premium prospect for Pablo.

[Brandon]

This should probably be a blog post but as is the rotation is pretty solid with lots of candidates to be the 5th starter.  Pavlov, Ryan, Ober, Woods-Richardson,  (Abel, Matthews, Bradley)

The bullpen needs help big time but a few can come from within and a few low cost additions and we could have a serviceable pen.  
 

Offense has a youth movement coming in (Culpepper, Jenkins, Gonzales, E Rodriguez,). There are also several inexpensive 1B hitting FA.  I think the keys are Lewis rebounding and Lee developing and One or two rookies taking off and the offense is good and we are competing.  
 

we wouldn’t be a pennant winning team but possibly above.500 it all depends on development 2027 appears to be more of the same hence the importance of front loading extensions for Ryan and Jeffers.

[Brandon27]

Buxton is going to be traded this offseason 

[DocBauer]

Just to get my own personal feelings out of the way:

1] I never believe in not trying to win. That means keeping your best assets as much as possible, and adding where needed per trades, FA, and your prospects. The whole "blow it up and rebuild" idea often doesn't work as expected or hoped for, and often takes longer than expected or hoped for. I don't believe in giving up too soon.

2] Quality, front line SP is the hardest thing to find.

OK, with that out of the way, Nick is exactly right that moving Lopez signifies a complete breakdown of the entire team. With all due respect to the VERY GOOD Ryan, Lopez is the #1 arm on this team, and it's leader.

Some still reminisce about Gray. We'll Lopez is younger, better and is the same kind of leader. Moving him is wrong, IMO, and changes the whole dynamic of the staff, and the potential of the 2026 team and beyond.

Without creating a hijack of the thread...not my intention...I re-state that KEEPING Lopez and Ryan still has the team at around $90M. That's about $50M + below opening day 2025. That puts the Twins in the lower 3rd of all MLB. Moving Lopez for a $ grab ends up putting the Twins in the bottom few teams.

Meanwhile, if the payroll was only $120-130M for 2026...still below opening day 2025...the FO would have $30-40M to add a quality bat, and a handful of useful RP to supplement the new manager and staff, the players on hand, and the collection of arms and position players that have either just debuted, or are about to.

That size of payroll still keeps them in the lower 3rd of MLB, but allows a chance to be fun, interesting, and possibly in contention for an 80+ season and possible playoff birth.

Again, my personal philosophy as mentioned earlier, I don't believe in giving up. And quality, front line SP is the hardest thing to find.

Does Ryan's trade return hold less value at the deadline if everything goes poorly in 2026? Probably some as acquiring teams only get 1 1/2 years vs 2 full years. But it also removes most any chance for the 2026 Twins to have a potentially good season.

Once more, I don't like giving up too soon.

Unfortunately, I'd have to agree with @Dmanthat IF the Twins moved Lopez, you might just be better of trading Ryan as well and go ahead and tear the whole damn thing down. Losing Lopez loses your #1 SP and the heart of your staff.

I'd keep both. I hope they do. While my faith in ownership is almost non-existant, and my faith in the FO is rather poor right now, I keep remembering Joe Pohlad arguing for a little more $ last season. I keep thinking about the elimination of debt and minority owners that might not want to see their new toy/investment blown up right after they buy in. So I'm hoping for a $120-130M payroll that is still well below MLB AVG, but might allow for a solid, perhaps surprising, season with the new manager and staff and all the young talent debuting.

One more time, I just don't believe in giving up too soon.

[Jacksson]

Let's be realistic.

So far NEITHER Lopez or Ryan has proved to be the difference maker that they have been built up to be, expected top be or needed to be.  NEITHER will be with the Twins after the 2026 trade deadline. What fans can look forward to is a 5 phase approach to/in 2026.

A Select group of players will be allowed to leave = Hatch, Tonkin, Topa, Vasquez, Julien, Miranda, Outman, Keirsey, McCusker, Cabrera, Misiewicz, etc.

A bunch of players will be added to the 40 man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 draft.

Two or 3 players you never heard of will be taken in the Major League an Minor League portions of the Rule 5 Draft.  Perhaps a trade will also take place here.

Players will be traded in the off Season = Lopez, Larnach, Sands.

Players will be traded away at the trade deadline = Ryan, Wallner, Jeffers, some of the kid outfielders and (possibly even Lewis and Lee).

Don't know the when, where, how but Buxton will be gone at or after the last 2 stages. 

BTW = TV viewership will sink, attendance will shrink, interest in the team will hit bottom, the team's performance will tank, the St Paul Saints' attendance will flourish.

 

[Blyleven2011]

6 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

He Gone!

There is no need for Pablo for the 2026 kids movement. They'll save more money and get some more assets on a 2028 timeline. 

I have to agree it stacks up against Pablo to remain  a twin , salary and you don't need him for a rebuild,  trade hopefully prospects that are major league ready , it's going to hurt , yes  his leadership is useful ...

That being said  , Ryan i can definitely see being traded or requesting a trade and I really don't know of the 2 pitchers who will bring back the most , it's how other teams perceive who is better Lopez and Ryan  , Lopez for 2 years or ryan for whatever he has left of team control , plus I've stated before i dont blame anyone if they request a trade and don't want to play for the twins and that does include buxton waiving his no trade clause .. .

Yes it will hurt and sad to see them go , it's better to accept the facts now then wait for a bigger disappointment later , falvey has stated he'd like to keep them , take it for what's it worth ...

[Craig Arko]

2 minutes ago, Jacksson said:

Let's be realistic.

So far NEITHER Lopez or Ryan has proved to be the difference maker that they have been built up to be, expected top be or needed to be.  NEITHER will be with the Twins after the 2026 trade deadline. What fans can look forward to is a 5 phase approach to/in 2026.

A Select group of players will be allowed to leave = Hatch, Tonkin, Topa, Vasquez, Julien, Miranda, Outman, Keirsey, McCusker, Cabrera, Misiewicz, etc.

A bunch of players will be added to the 40 man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 draft.

Two or 3 players you never heard of will be taken in the Major League an Minor League portions of the Rule 5 Draft.  Perhaps a trade will also take place here.

Players will be traded in the off Season = Lopez, Larnach, Sands.

Players will be traded away at the trade deadline = Ryan, Wallner, Jeffers, some of the kid outfielders and (possibly even Lewis and Lee).

Don't know the when, where, how but Buxton will be gone at or after the last 2 stages. 

BTW = TV viewership will sink, attendance will shrink, interest in the team will hit bottom, the team's performance will tank, the St Paul Saints' attendance will flourish.

 

And it’s contraction time. Well done.

[Major League Ready]

13 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Just to get my own personal feelings out of the way:

1] I never believe in not trying to win. That means keeping your best assets as much as possible, and adding where needed per trades, FA, and your prospects. The whole "blow it up and rebuild" idea often doesn't work as expected or hoped for, and often takes longer than expected or hoped for. I don't believe in giving up too soon.

Here is another way of looking at it that might make you feel better should they continue the rebuild.  Every trade is a decision to be better at some point and worse at some point.  The goal of trading for established players is always to get better immediately for whatever period of time that player is under contract.  Generally, a short period of time.   That same trade also projects to make that team worse at some point in the future.  That period of time generally much longer. 

When the Padres traded for Juan Soto, they did that to be better immediately.  Juan Soto is no longer providing value.  Are they worse today as a result of getting better during Sot's tenure with the Padres.  The answer is the Padres would be better if they had the production of James Wood, CJ Abrams, and McKenzie Gore, especially given they are all on prearb salaries.  Robert Hasel has debuted last year in his age 23 season.  It remains to be seen if he provides value.

If the goal is playoff success or even overall success, the question becomes is Joe Ryan’s present value more meaningful than his future value which is the value of the players acquired by trading him.  My take is I would rather have a shot at being better for 7 years.  I see the result of keeping Ryan as going from 70-74 to 74-78 wins which is inconsequential to me.  We have no BP, a below average 3B, a well below average SS, a below average 1B, and a below average corner OF spot that all need fixing.  I take the chance that I get an equivalent player back in trade.  If we do, we are better for 7 years when there is at least a chance some of those years result in a playoff team. 

[MGX]

The deadline deals did two things they reduced payroll and added additional prospects to our system. If we keep both Lopez & Ryan our player payroll will still be at it's lowest point in many years so the financial side has already been addressed.

If we trade one or both of them what do we get? More prospects & the possibility of a lost season (or 2 or more) with fan loyalty already at a low point.

IMO trading either one is unnecessary, & a big risk of further alienating the fan base. With a small investment on the position player side & revamping the bullpen they could put a competitive team on the field.

It's the Pohlad's we're talking about & they decided to "right size" the payroll when fan excitement was at it's highest in recent years so who knows what they're thinking. Falvey is the one who should be pushing to keep both & add some talent since his job has to be the next one on the line if things don't improve.

[Otaknam]

23 hours ago, Linus said:

Spot on. If they are going to compete next year one way to do it is to turn Ryan into a good bat or two. The pitching staff could likely survive it and this lineup needs a makeover. 

Agree on the lineup, but I disagree on trading excellent starters to acquire offense. A good team starts with starting pitchers. Without solid starters and depth you have no chance to compete. 

[Otaknam]

23 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

I will begrudgingly agree unless someone is willing to massively overpay.  The strength of the Twins right now is the starting pitching.  You have 2 #1 pitchers when they are healthy and pitching well.  Due to the injury you would not be getting full value on a Pablo trade.  You are better to keep him and then trade him at the deadline if you are wanting to try to get full value or keep Pablo.  

I continue to stand by Pablo is the pitcher the twins are building around for the next 2 years.  He is the ultimate professional.    

The problem with that scenario is the Twins won’t be able to complete for the next two years, given the poor offensive performance with so many underperforming position players. I doubt they will hold onto Lopez and his salary, since they are in rebuild mode.

[Otaknam]

14 hours ago, Jacksson said:

Let's be realistic.

So far NEITHER Lopez or Ryan has proved to be the difference maker that they have been built up to be, expected top be or needed to be.  NEITHER will be with the Twins after the 2026 trade deadline. What fans can look forward to is a 5 phase approach to/in 2026.

A Select group of players will be allowed to leave = Hatch, Tonkin, Topa, Vasquez, Julien, Miranda, Outman, Keirsey, McCusker, Cabrera, Misiewicz, etc.

A bunch of players will be added to the 40 man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 draft.

Two or 3 players you never heard of will be taken in the Major League an Minor League portions of the Rule 5 Draft.  Perhaps a trade will also take place here.

Players will be traded in the off Season = Lopez, Larnach, Sands.

Players will be traded away at the trade deadline = Ryan, Wallner, Jeffers, some of the kid outfielders and (possibly even Lewis and Lee).

Don't know the when, where, how but Buxton will be gone at or after the last 2 stages. 

BTW = TV viewership will sink, attendance will shrink, interest in the team will hit bottom, the team's performance will tank, the St Paul Saints' attendance will flourish.

 

Sadly, your summary is likely to come to fruition. If Buxton, Ryan, or Lopez are traded this offseason that signifies a total rebuild. At that point they might as well complete the dismantling and acquire as many high level prospects as possible. The good news is their minor league system is highly rated, and they have young starting pitching depth. But you can’t compete unless the young starters can become at least number 2 starters. Even then you better develop a number two, like Lopez and Ryan, or you have no chance. 

[Otaknam]

19 hours ago, Robert Gauthier said:

All these arguments presume that somehow if we get a bunch of players, they will perform well for the twins.  I think the development path and the strategy of the front office will preclude this. I’m amazed nobody is written an article about how the hitting coach for the Blue Jays has been credited for the turnaround of the Jays, and he was fired by the twins for lack of hitting. Also, the article recently suggesting James Rawson as a managerial candidate, kind of left off the fact that the twins hitting fell off dramatically after he left.

Somehow, the front office has come up with a theory of how to play baseball that does not seem in sync with current thinking or success.  It is important to score runs to win a ball game. Focusing on launch angle does not magically make base runners appear. Falvy and his assistants seemed to be pushing a type of baseball that is hard to watch and harder to win..  I think Rocco decided that he was gonna go down swinging the last few weeks of the season. Stealing bases and hustle is fun to watch, I actually attended two games in the last week and they were more enjoyable than the games I saw earlier in the year. It appeared that someone was trying, as opposed to swinging to see how far they could hit the ball every single at bat.

The team’s focus on analytics under this regime, especially  with starting pitching, has always been aggravating to me. And It took the carpet bombing of the roster at the trade deadline for Rocco to learn that the team needed to run more, steal some bases, hit and run, etc., which is an indictment on him. RISP was very poor, and yet they spent most of the season doing little to get the offense going. So glad Baldelli and his slavish devotion to analytics is gone! Too bad Falvey is still here, because he’s the one responsible for this underperforming roster. 

 

[tony&rodney]

14 hours ago, Jacksson said:

Let's be realistic.

So far NEITHER Lopez or Ryan has proved to be the difference maker that they have been built up to be, expected top be or needed to be.  NEITHER will be with the Twins after the 2026 trade deadline. What fans can look forward to is a 5 phase approach to/in 2026.

A Select group of players will be allowed to leave = Hatch, Tonkin, Topa, Vasquez, Julien, Miranda, Outman, Keirsey, McCusker, Cabrera, Misiewicz, etc.

A bunch of players will be added to the 40 man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 draft.

Two or 3 players you never heard of will be taken in the Major League an Minor League portions of the Rule 5 Draft.  Perhaps a trade will also take place here.

Players will be traded in the off Season = Lopez, Larnach, Sands.

Players will be traded away at the trade deadline = Ryan, Wallner, Jeffers, some of the kid outfielders and (possibly even Lewis and Lee).

Don't know the when, where, how but Buxton will be gone at or after the last 2 stages. 

BTW = TV viewership will sink, attendance will shrink, interest in the team will hit bottom, the team's performance will tank, the St Paul Saints' attendance will flourish.

 

Let's be realistic.

We have zero idea what is going to happen.

Not a single fan, ZERO, predicted the trades in July.

Hope for the best and enjoy whatever you can from baseball because we have no role in decisions.

[TopGunn#22]

LA Vikes Fan, I am the guy that posted the possible trade of Ryan to the Red Sox for Wilyer Abreu, Payton Tolle and Tristan Casas.  Nick's article is exactly where I've stood on the issue of Ryan or Lopez being traded.  To me, they are very similar in ability.  Look at their career stats and you can see how similar. 

Ryan is better when it comes to WHIP, Lopez has a longer track record of success.  They will both turn 30 years old within 3 months of each other during the 2026 season.  Generally, it's not good to have multiple pitchers over the age of 35 pulling down big bucks in your starting rotation.  Especially if you're a team that has always operated under a "budget."  

The Twins are looking at Lopez, Ryan and Ober all will be 30-31 years old during the 2026 season.  The Twins would probably prefer to have only one "anchor" of their rotation who they are paying $20+ million a season to going forward.  That is why they are stock piling young arms to go with their homegrown pitchers like Matthews, SWR, Festa, as well as up and coming arms like Prielipp and Dasam Hill.  

The Twins can and should get a significant haul for a pitcher like Ryan.  They would be selling high.  Ober is a different story.  They would be selling low and I'm uneasy about his decrease in velocity.  He was never a hard thrower, but an extra 2-3 mph makes a big difference for him.  

Ryan's BBTV is 47.0.  Lopez is at 7.3.  They are the same age and have the same relative ability.  The situation SCREAMS trade Joe.  Hang on to Pablo.  The last value I saw for Pablo was just under 20 but I'm sure that's fallen a long way.  My plan would be to keep Pablo, trade Ryan this off season and trade Ober at the deadline, especially if he's rebuilt his value.  Matthews, SWR, Bradley, Abel, Prielipp, Dasan Hill...there's plenty of guys who could step in for Ober mid season.

Someone has suggested they'd rather have Marcelo Meyer, a polished 21 y/o SS in a one-for-one trade with the Red Sox instead of my proposed trade.  I could get on board with that.  But Meyer has a value of 51.2.  Ryan has a value of 47.0.  Maybe the Twins throw in Andrew Morris, maybe they hold fast for a one-for-one deal. 

Even with Culpepper and Marek Houston on the way, Meyer would be a solid return.  And he could probably push Lee to a Utility role right out of spring training.  That move would fill SS for the foreseeable future if the Red Sox want to stick with Trevor Story for 2026 or move Ceddane Rafaela or Kristian Campbell to SS.  

But if the Red Sox see Meyer as their starting SS for 2026 they won't budge.  The BEST thing for the Twins was Boston's early ouster at the hands of the hated Yankees.  They clearly NEED Joe Ryan.  I like my trade better because the Red Sox can afford to give up Wilyer Abreu when they still have Duran, Anthony and Ceddane Rafaela as well as good old Rob Refsnyder.  They are getting Ryan, so they can easily give up #2 prospect LHP Payton Tolle.  And I think it's vital to the Twins to ask for Tristan Casas as a throw in.  Boston needs to win NOW.  They probably won't have the patience to wait for Casas to get healthy and instead will sign someone like Josh Naylor.  Not a bad signing for Fenway Park.

That is the kind of trade that replaces Joe Ryan with another young, high potential arm to take his spot in the Twins rotation.  It fills a corner OF spot with a Gold Glover with power and it fills the 1B/DH spot with another power hitter.  Getting Meyer would be great, but he only fills one hole, and we have 2 guys coming who could do that. 

Pablo Lopez can't get the Twins anything near what Joe Ryan can, but he can pitch to a 2026 outcome that would be very close if not better than what Joe Ryan could do.  By 2027, the Twins will either be extending Pablo if they need to, or moving him aside to let the next wave of young pitchers take over at a fraction of the cost. 

Oataknam, I agree with your premise that a good team starts with good pitchers and solid depth.  But I'm old enough to remember a couple trades where a team acquired a solid young pitcher for a hitter where it worked out pretty good for the team acquiring the hitter.  (Yes, I'm cherry-picking).  Here's one:

The Baltimore Orioles, following the 1965 season had a LOT of young pitchers either on their roster already or on the way.  They had just finished 3rd in the A.L. behind the Twins and White Sox.  They needed a thumper.  So they convinced the Reds to take a promising 26 year old SP named Milt Pappas for a fading 29 year old Superstar named Frank Robinson.  

The rest is history.  I'm not saying Wilyer Abreu is going to win the Triple Crown after joining the Twins, but he and Casas could provide "thump" and lengthen the lineup. 

Trading Joe Ryan gives the Twins a chance to fill some massive holes with a quality player or two.  Trading Pablo Lopez will not do that.   

[bunsen82]

1 hour ago, Otaknam said:

The problem with that scenario is the Twins won’t be able to complete for the next two years, given the poor offensive performance with so many underperforming position players. I doubt they will hold onto Lopez and his salary, since they are in rebuild mode.

First I am not going in with a premise of underperforming position players. I think we are SS, 1st baseman and LF away from having a really good lineup. You have Culpepper, Gonzalez, Rodriguez Jenkins likely coming up or traded in the next year. 
 

You will get much more value from Lopez if he performs well for the next year and a half and either keep him all of 2027 if competing or trade him at the deadline. Odds are he will still get you a comp pick. The value is being a steadying pitcher and giving the young pitchers an example of being a professional. That is worth the money we are paying him. Bradley is the one pitcher that I hope he can rub off on. If he helps Bradley become our next Ryan or Lopez that will be worth any salary we pay to Lopez.

[D.C Twins]

51 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

First I am not going in with a premise of underperforming position players. I think we are SS, 1st baseman and LF away from having a really good lineup. You have Culpepper, Gonzalez, Rodriguez Jenkins likely coming up or traded in the next year. 
 

You will get much more value from Lopez if he performs well for the next year and a half and either keep him all of 2027 if competing or trade him at the deadline. Odds are he will still get you a comp pick. The value is being a steadying pitcher and giving the young pitchers an example of being a professional. That is worth the money we are paying him. Bradley is the one pitcher that I hope he can rub off on. If he helps Bradley become our next Ryan or Lopez that will be worth any salary we pay to Lopez.

umm what? Under your math we are 1/3 of a lineup short of a 'really good lineup.' That alone is a lot.... but I would add 3rd, RF, and DH to get to 2/3 of a line up short of a 'really good lineup.' 

To be clear... this is going to be somewhere between a bad and a really bad line up next year. 

[Riverbrian]

23 hours ago, Western SD Fan said:

We obviously don't know what the budget that Falvey will have this upcoming season.

Falvey doesn't either. 😉

[bunsen82]

20 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

umm what? Under your math we are 1/3 of a lineup short of a 'really good lineup.' That alone is a lot.... but I would add 3rd, RF, and DH to get to 2/3 of a line up short of a 'really good lineup.' 

To be clear... this is going to be somewhere between a bad and a really bad line up 

Depends what we do at 1st. If you can solve that position with a good player things can fall into place. 
 

Let’s say they use some money to get Naylor. Keaschall and Martin are OBP guys. I think Gonzalez will be the LF. Another high OBP player. Throw in Jeffers and Buxton and you have the solid making of a lineup. Can Wallner be his 2023 or 2024 version things get better.  I should have said good lineup and not real good line up. It’s amazing what happens in a lineup when you remove the 2-3 black holes that are automatic outs. We had way too many holes in the lineup in a daily basis.

 

[Blair Hanscom]

Article is exactly spot on. 100% correct.

No need for me to add anything else.

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

LA Vikes Fan, I am the guy that posted the possible trade of Ryan to the Red Sox for Wilyer Abreu, Payton Tolle and Tristan Casas.  Nick's article is exactly where I've stood on the issue of Ryan or Lopez being traded.  To me, they are very similar in ability.  Look at their career stats and you can see how similar. 

Ryan is better when it comes to WHIP, Lopez has a longer track record of success.  They will both turn 30 years old within 3 months of each other during the 2026 season.  Generally, it's not good to have multiple pitchers over the age of 35 pulling down big bucks in your starting rotation.  Especially if you're a team that has always operated under a "budget."  

The Twins are looking at Lopez, Ryan and Ober all will be 30-31 years old during the 2026 season.  The Twins would probably prefer to have only one "anchor" of their rotation who they are paying $20+ million a season to going forward.  That is why they are stock piling young arms to go with their homegrown pitchers like Matthews, SWR, Festa, as well as up and coming arms like Prielipp and Dasam Hill.  

The Twins can and should get a significant haul for a pitcher like Ryan.  They would be selling high.  Ober is a different story.  They would be selling low and I'm uneasy about his decrease in velocity.  He was never a hard thrower, but an extra 2-3 mph makes a big difference for him.  

Ryan's BBTV is 47.0.  Lopez is at 7.3.  They are the same age and have the same relative ability.  The situation SCREAMS trade Joe.  Hang on to Pablo.  The last value I saw for Pablo was just under 20 but I'm sure that's fallen a long way.  My plan would be to keep Pablo, trade Ryan this off season and trade Ober at the deadline, especially if he's rebuilt his value.  Matthews, SWR, Bradley, Abel, Prielipp, Dasan Hill...there's plenty of guys who could step in for Ober mid season.

Someone has suggested they'd rather have Marcelo Meyer, a polished 21 y/o SS in a one-for-one trade with the Red Sox instead of my proposed trade.  I could get on board with that.  But Meyer has a value of 51.2.  Ryan has a value of 47.0.  Maybe the Twins throw in Andrew Morris, maybe they hold fast for a one-for-one deal. 

Even with Culpepper and Marek Houston on the way, Meyer would be a solid return.  And he could probably push Lee to a Utility role right out of spring training.  That move would fill SS for the foreseeable future if the Red Sox want to stick with Trevor Story for 2026 or move Ceddane Rafaela or Kristian Campbell to SS.  

But if the Red Sox see Meyer as their starting SS for 2026 they won't budge.  The BEST thing for the Twins was Boston's early ouster at the hands of the hated Yankees.  They clearly NEED Joe Ryan.  I like my trade better because the Red Sox can afford to give up Wilyer Abreu when they still have Duran, Anthony and Ceddane Rafaela as well as good old Rob Refsnyder.  They are getting Ryan, so they can easily give up #2 prospect LHP Payton Tolle.  And I think it's vital to the Twins to ask for Tristan Casas as a throw in.  Boston needs to win NOW.  They probably won't have the patience to wait for Casas to get healthy and instead will sign someone like Josh Naylor.  Not a bad signing for Fenway Park.

That is the kind of trade that replaces Joe Ryan with another young, high potential arm to take his spot in the Twins rotation.  It fills a corner OF spot with a Gold Glover with power and it fills the 1B/DH spot with another power hitter.  Getting Meyer would be great, but he only fills one hole, and we have 2 guys coming who could do that. 

Pablo Lopez can't get the Twins anything near what Joe Ryan can, but he can pitch to a 2026 outcome that would be very close if not better than what Joe Ryan could do.  By 2027, the Twins will either be extending Pablo if they need to, or moving him aside to let the next wave of young pitchers take over at a fraction of the cost. 

Oataknam, I agree with your premise that a good team starts with good pitchers and solid depth.  But I'm old enough to remember a couple trades where a team acquired a solid young pitcher for a hitter where it worked out pretty good for the team acquiring the hitter.  (Yes, I'm cherry-picking).  Here's one:

The Baltimore Orioles, following the 1965 season had a LOT of young pitchers either on their roster already or on the way.  They had just finished 3rd in the A.L. behind the Twins and White Sox.  They needed a thumper.  So they convinced the Reds to take a promising 26 year old SP named Milt Pappas for a fading 29 year old Superstar named Frank Robinson.  

The rest is history.  I'm not saying Wilyer Abreu is going to win the Triple Crown after joining the Twins, but he and Casas could provide "thump" and lengthen the lineup. 

Trading Joe Ryan gives the Twins a chance to fill some massive holes with a quality player or two.  Trading Pablo Lopez will not do that.   

Can you explain how Joe Ryan went from 70 in July to 47 now? How did Royce Lewis go from 31 in late July to 11 now? I'm curious how that works.

FWIW, racism was a part of the 1965 trade of Frank Robinson, but it is important to remember that Milt Pappas was seen as being the next Koufax at the time.

I don't see the Red Sox as the best trading partner for the Twins. I'm only interested in Rafaela Ceddanne and Payton Tolle, maybe Marcelo Mayer but I am not that keen on his future as many. If Boston wants Joe Ryan, they will have to pay much more than BTV would suggest, but if they just wanted to be rid of Tristan Casas he works as a throw in a deal.

It is fun to play around with these ideas. While I know everyone has different thoughts and nobody has any clue of actual values from a MLB front office viewpoint much less need, it still is a part of being a fan.

Thinking about trades just while typing this, I wonder if Detroit would be amenable to receiving either Ryan or Lopez plus either Lee or Lewis and send back Javy Baez and Max Clark.

I'm totally guessing but expect a budget near $110M for 2026.

[SteveLV]

If you are trading Ryan to the Tigers, I want McGonigle for Ryan and Lee.  They would never do it, but that is who they should get.