Arbitrary Thoughts: OF Trevor Larnach

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

OF Trevor Larnach
Age on Opening Day 2026: 29
Service Time: Four years, 14 days

2023 Salary: $733,650
2024 Salary: $740,000
2025 Salary: $2.1 million
2026 MLB Trade Rumor Estimate: $4.7 million

Background: When the Minnesota Twins selected Larnach out of Oregon State University with the 20th overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft, they believed they were adding a cornerstone bat to their future lineup. Larnach had just helped lead the Beavers to a College World Series championship, showcasing his polished left-handed swing and advanced approach at the plate. By the time he debuted in 2021, he was one of the organization’s most highly regarded prospects, a consensus top-100 player in baseball who projected to hit for both average and power.

His early big-league years, however, have been a roller coaster. Over his first four seasons in the majors, Larnach hit .236/.323/.403 (.726) with a 102 OPS+, showing flashes of the middle-of-the-order bat the Twins envisioned but never sustaining that success for long stretches. There were times when his power and patience carried the offense, but just as often, he’d drift into prolonged slumps where he struggled to make consistent contact.

For a player whose defense has graded as below average in the corner outfield, being merely a slightly above-average hitter wasn’t enough to cement his place as an everyday regular. Still, his 2024 season offered hope. Larnach was worth $11.6 million in value that year, according to FanGraphs, posting 1.4 fWAR with a 116 OPS+ in 112 games. He looked like he had finally turned the corner. But then came 2025, and with it, another regression.

Across 142 games, Larnach hit .250/.323/.404 (.727) with a 99 OPS+, and his defense dipped further to -4 Outs Above Average. He still hit the ball hard, ranking in the 70th percentile in Average Exit Velocity and above the 60th percentile in Hard Hit%, Squared Up%, and Walk Rate. The Twins tried to protect him by limiting exposure to left-handed pitching, giving him just over 100 plate appearances against southpaws, but he still posted an OPS 150 points lower in those matchups. However, the overall results didn’t match the quality of contact. FanGraphs valued his overall contribution at $1.8 million this season.

2025 Stats: 142 G, 567 PA, .250/.323/.404 (.727), 17 HR, 24 2B, 1 3B, 60 RBI, 9.3 BB%, 21.5 K%

Twins Depth at His Position (Corner Outfield)
Matt Wallner - 40-man roster
Austin Martin - 40-man roster
James Outman - 40-man roster
Carson McCusker - 40-man roster
Alan Roden - 40-man roster
Emmanuel Rodriguez - 40-man roster
Triple-A: Walker Jenkins, Gabriel Gonzalez, Kala'i Rosario, Kyler Fedko
Double-A: Hendry Mendez, Maddux Houghton, Kyle Hess

Summary: The corner outfield is one of the deepest areas in the organization. With Rodriguez and Jenkins both projected as future franchise-building blocks, the Twins may soon have to make tough roster calls. Several other players already occupy 40-man spots, meaning Larnach could become expendable if the team needs space for younger, higher-upside talent.

Why the Twins Should Offer Him Arbitration
There’s still a compelling case for keeping Larnach around. The front office, led by Derek Falvey, clearly saw long-term potential when they invested a first-round pick in him. Sometimes, front offices are reluctant to cut ties with players they developed and believed in.

More importantly, Larnach has shown that he can be an above-average offensive contributor when things click. During the second half of 2024, while the Twins’ season was unraveling, he was one of the lone bright spots by slashing .272/.368/.443 (.811) with six home runs and nine doubles. That kind of production over a full season would make him a clear everyday player, and the Twins could reasonably hope he finds that form again.

At 28 years old, there’s still time for Larnach to carve out a steady MLB role, even if it’s as a platoon bat or bench contributor with pop from the left side.

Why the Twins Should Non-Tender Him
But this front office will also have to make financially motivated decisions this winter. The Twins are expected to trim payroll after a disappointing 92-loss season, and Larnach’s projected arbitration salary could make him a casualty. According to MLB Trade Rumors, he’s in line for the third-highest arbitration salary on the roster behind Ryan Jeffers and Joe Ryan.

When weighed against his uneven production and defensive shortcomings, the value may not be there. The Twins also have multiple younger and cheaper outfield options who can fill similar roles. Add in the looming arrivals of Jenkins and Rodriguez, and it becomes harder to justify Larnach’s cost when the team has bigger holes elsewhere, particularly in the infield and pitching staff.

If the Twins want to free up resources for offseason additions, non-tendering Larnach could be an unfortunate but practical move.

Projection 
Currently, it seems more likely that Larnach will be non-tendered this winter. The Twins’ outfield logjam and financial constraints make him a natural roster casualty. Still, the front office has shown patience with homegrown talent before. If Falvey and company believe Larnach can rediscover his 2024 form, they might give him one final opportunity to prove he belongs.

Whether that chance comes in Minnesota (or somewhere else) remains to be seen.

What should the Twins do with Larnach? Is he an easy DFA decision? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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[thelanges5]

Larnach and Lee are slow AF. They should work agility as much as hitting in the off season. 
 

Larnach could also grab a 1B mitt so the FO can spend any $$ they do have in other areas. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

He doesn't have zero value. I don't see him on the 2026 team, but some team will give SOMETHING for him to get him for only 2 million or so in 2026. 

[The Great Hambino]

Larnach is probably the arb candidate for whom I'm least sure about which direction they'll go.  Tender-and-trade would be my guess, but I wouldn't be shocked by anything.  Maybe mildly surprised if he was nontendered straight away

ETA: regarding moving him to 1B, part of me thinks that makes sense given the rest of the roster, but another part of me wonders why they didn't do that last year if they had thought it was a possibility.  France wasn't signed until mid-February, after all.  Maybe Miranda was still viewed as a viable option at 1B at the time?  I dunno

[DJL44]

Tender and trade.

They need to take some outfielders off the 40-man roster. Even after cutting McCusker, Keirsey and Outman they will have Buxton, Wallner, Larnach, Martin, Roden, Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Rosario and Fedko on the 40-man and Jenkins ready to add. 10 outfielders on the 40-man is above-average.

Larnach's projected $4.7M arbitration salary is not an obstacle for any team that would want to use him as a strong-side platoon bat.

[Cory Engelhardt]

13 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Tender and trade.

They need to take some outfielders off the 40-man roster. Even after cutting McCusker, Keirsey and Outman they will have Buxton, Wallner, Larnach, Martin, Roden, Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Rosario and Fedko on the 40-man and Jenkins ready to add. 10 outfielders on the 40-man is above-average.

Larnach's projected $4.7M arbitration salary is not an obstacle for any team that would want to use him as a strong-side platoon bat.

Fedko and Rosario, I'm not certain either will be added to the 40 man. But your point is still valid. Other movement probably happens beyond them too.

[Linus]

I don’t think he has surplus trade value at a $5 million arb number. So if you tender him with the idea of trading him you are taking a risk that you will have to keep him. You could tender him if you want him as a placeholder for 26 waiting for EmRod or Jenkins but that doesn’t improve the team. 

[Road trip]

If you tender Larnach, I'm not certain you can trade him.  Been there, done that with Kyle Farmer a couple of years ago.  4.7 million for a platoon DH is a big bite for any franchise that isn't awash in cash, and the wealthier franchises probably will want a better DH.

I like Larnach.  I had high hopes for Larnach a couple of years ago.  But for a cash-strapped organization like the Twins I just don't know how you can make that kind of investment when one of Gonzalez/Jenkins/Fedko/etc can fill his lineup spot for league minimum.  Limited funds need to be spent filling other holes.

[jmlease1]

Larnach will certainly get signed by someone for 2026 if he's on the market, but it seems unlikely anyone will be interested in paying him $4.5M or more.

I just don't know how much of a trade market there is for him if the Twins tender him, because no one is going to want to actually go to arbitration with him, so dealing for him would require something of an understanding with his agent that he'll settle in the $2-3M range if they go get him, but even then...what are you going to get for him?

Larnach is unplayable against LHP, he's a below average defender in the corners, he's 28, and he doesn't punish RHP the way you'd like to see from a platoon bat. He doesn't add anything on the bases either. That's a fairly low floor, unfortunately.

I think the acquisition of Outman (blegh) and especially Roden are a signal that Larnach's days are numbered. I think he gets non-tendered, and should get non-tendered, but this front office has shown a propensity for refusing to let go of an "asset" without compensation, even if it means blocking other players.

[rdehring]

My guess would be that they tender him.  With that said, I don't see him being on the team come opening day as he should have some value to another team.  Will he bring back a top prospect, probably not.  But maybe they can get a decent prospect back should he be a bit further away, say A-ball.

[jorgenswest]

Seems like it is the same debate we had about Farmer. He was said by some to be easy to tender and trade. The Twins were left stuck with the contract and replacement level performance. Young players were in AAA while he had a roster spot.

Perhaps some believe Larnach has excess value beyond the 4.7 million. Is it enough excess value to take the risk that he will be holding a roster spot all year?

 

[stringer bell]

Trevor Larnach is a major league player, but he's not one that should hold a roster spot over multi-talented guys like Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins. I would think the Twins will either make a trade similar to the one they made for Gio Urshela or they non-tender him. I think if Trevor is allowed to be a free agent, he will sign a major league deal with someone for less than his predicted arb number. 

[DJL44]

18 minutes ago, Road trip said:

If you tender Larnach, I'm not certain you can trade him.

Ideally he'd be traded by the arbitration deadline of November, 21.

[tony&rodney]

First off the Twins do not need to reduce payroll. It currently sits below $90M. The need is for adding talent and balancing the roster. The Twins have too many DH type guys. Trevor Larnach is a DH. Larnach definitely has value. What team needs a DH that can hit? There will be interest in him. Possibly the Twins trade 3-4 of their other DH types and keep Larnach. 

The Twins should definitely tender a contract to Larnach but gage interest in him from across the league.

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 hour ago, Linus said:

I don’t think he has surplus trade value at a $5 million arb number. So if you tender him with the idea of trading him you are taking a risk that you will have to keep him. You could tender him if you want him as a placeholder for 26 waiting for EmRod or Jenkins but that doesn’t improve the team. 

Dumb question probably; couldn't he be traded prior to tendering a contract?

[Linus]

10 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Dumb question probably; couldn't he be traded prior to tendering a contract?

Not dumb at all - he could be. The rub is the new team would have to be willing to pay his arbitration number and give you something back in return. Which is the unlikely part. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

3 minutes ago, Linus said:

Not dumb at all - he could be. The rub is the new team would have to be willing to pay his arbitration number and give you something back in return. Which is the unlikely part. 

Which is why I'm comparing it to what they did with Nick Gordon for Steven Okert. Okert was in his last year of arbitration and couldn't be optioned to the minors. That type of player (and contract) would be my guess as to what they could receive from Larnach from whatever team.

If they do know for now there truly isn't a market out there in any way for Larnach, then designating would be appropriate too. I just think there has to be some type of market for him, even if it is 2 or 3 teams that would have interest as a bat to only face righties.

[nicksaviking]

I'm going to predict he's traded to a team lacking left handed outfielders in exchange for a similarly questionable arbitration relief pitcher. Let's go with the Angels and the Twins ask for Reid Detmers but accept Brock Burke.

[Doctor Gast]

What the Bomba Squad organically came to be, the Twins tried to artificially tweak all their hitters to max the HR totals. Instead of letting hitters find their own swing, which hindered their development. Although some hitters, like Larnach, had some early success, pitchers quickly adjusted, which forced players like Larnach to go to the other extreme of contact hitting to successfully adjust. Larnach had adjusted, which others have not, but as a result of fewer HRs. Poor fielding & fewer HRs are not optimal, I advocated trading players like Larnach when their trade value was high. I highly feel that Falvey had decent offers on players like Larnach, but these players' profiles were what Falvey targeted. 

Even before Falvey traded for redundant Outman & Roden I advocated for trading Larnach. I still feel we could get something for Larnach, but I don't trust Falvey to pull it off

[chpettit19]

If I remember correctly, Gleeman said in 1 or more of the Gleeman and the Geek podcasts that the Twins tried to trade Larnach at the deadline and there was no interest. I can't imagine the demand went up with his arb number going up.

The Twins should absolutely be putting feelers out before just non-tendering him, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if there's no market for him on the trade market. A .759 OPS against righties is not DH material. That's slightly above average while being unplayable against lefties and bringing no baserunning or defense to the table.

That being said, the Twins are an awful offensive team. I mean truly horrendous. I wouldn't be surprised at all if they keep him just because he can provide an average bat against righties and they have so few players who can be counted on to do that. It'll all depend on how far into the rebuild they want to lean vs pretending to compete.

[IndianaTwin]

Larnach's reduced overall numbers this year were mainly a reflection in a changed usage pattern.

His OPS against righties (.759) this year was exactly his career average. What brought his overall numbers down was that he had 21 percent of his plate appearances against lefties, whereas prior to that he had only had 17 percent of his PAs against lefties. In his best year (2024), less than 6 percent of his PAs were against lefties. 

There's still a significant platoon split, but his OPS against lefties this year (.608) was somewhat better than the .571 he had accumulated against lefties in prior years.

I agree that it's borderline on tendering him, but a lot may come down to whether they think there is more improvement in the tank against lefties.  

[Hrbowski]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

Trevor Larnach is a major league player, but he's not one that should hold a roster spot over multi-talented guys like Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins. I would think the Twins will either make a trade similar to the one they made for Gio Urshela or they non-tender him. I think if Trevor is allowed to be a free agent, he will sign a major league deal with someone for less than his predicted arb number. 

Rodriguez has a K% rate in AAA that's as high as Julien's in MLB. I think fans who are riding the E-Rod hype train are going to be sorely disappointed. I would say keep Larnach and trade him mid-season if the rookies have shown they can handle it.

[SteveLV]

ERod also walks over 26% of the time, so you need to factor that into the analysis.  His OPS was .840 in a down, injured year (not that he has many un-injured years, but you get the point).

Larnach's OPS was .727 last year.  

[DJL44]

40 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

If I remember correctly, Gleeman said in 1 or more of the Gleeman and the Geek podcasts that the Twins tried to trade Larnach at the deadline and there was no interest. I can't imagine the demand went up with his arb number going up.

The Twins should absolutely be putting feelers out before just non-tendering him, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if there's no market for him on the trade market. A .759 OPS against righties is not DH material. That's slightly above average while being unplayable against lefties and bringing no baserunning or defense to the table.

That being said, the Twins are an awful offensive team. I mean truly horrendous. I wouldn't be surprised at all if they keep him just because he can provide an average bat against righties and they have so few players who can be counted on to do that. It'll all depend on how far into the rebuild they want to lean vs pretending to compete.

Good point, but only playoff teams are buying at the deadline. Kyle Farmer didn't get dealt at the deadline, but then the Rockies signed him in the offseason.

Trevor Larnach is going to find a job next season. It might not pay $4.7M.

[DJL44]

21 minutes ago, SteveLV said:

ERod also walks over 26% of the time, so you need to factor that into the analysis.  His OPS was .840 in a down, injured year (not that he has many un-injured years, but you get the point).

Larnach's OPS was .727 last year.  

.727 in MLB is better than .840 in AAA.

[Mike Sixel]

If they can't deal him, no way I tender him. Not on a team with limited payroll that is spending 10 million on a guy not here anymore.....He's just not that valuable, and him being in MN isn't going to matter all that much, IMO. There are, however, teams that have almost no OF....and could use him (though they'll bet MN non-tenders him, imo).

[RpR]

Larnach had better defense numbers, and similar offense numbers this year than Wallner; get rid of Wallner and keep Larnach.

[chpettit19]

14 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Good point, but only playoff teams are buying at the deadline. Kyle Farmer didn't get dealt at the deadline, but then the Rockies signed him in the offseason.

Trevor Larnach is going to find a job next season. It might not pay $4.7M.

The Rockies signed him for less than half the price the Twins paid him in arbitration the year before. I agree Larnach would get a contract if he were a free agent. My contention is the idea that they can tender and trade him. I don't think they'll find a buyer for him if they've already tied him to a 4.7ish arbitration number. If they non-tender him he'll get signed after he clears all the arbitration requirements for a couple mil. But I think people's thought that he can be obviously traded is significantly off base. I don't think they can trade him.

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

The Rockies signed him for less than half the price the Twins paid him in arbitration the year before. I agree Larnach would get a contract if he were a free agent. My contention is the idea that they can tender and trade him. I don't think they'll find a buyer for him if they've already tied him to a 4.7ish arbitration number. If they non-tender him he'll get signed after he clears all the arbitration requirements for a couple mil. But I think people's thought that he can be obviously traded is significantly off base. I don't think they can trade him.

concur. Plus, why take the chance for a, what, 5% chance the guy they get back matters? Gotta factor in risk here.

[DJL44]

3 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

The Rockies signed him for less than half the price the Twins paid him in arbitration the year before. I agree Larnach would get a contract if he were a free agent. My contention is the idea that they can tender and trade him. I don't think they'll find a buyer for him if they've already tied him to a 4.7ish arbitration number. If they non-tender him he'll get signed after he clears all the arbitration requirements for a couple mil. But I think people's thought that he can be obviously traded is significantly off base. I don't think they can trade him.

If they can't trade him then they definitely shouldn't tender him a contract at $4.7M. Even if they want him back, they should be able to sign him at cheaper dollar figure.