The Twins Finally Picked a Lane

[bunsen82]

32 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Disagree on the drafting portion. 

If we had fans in AA they would tell you they are pretty happy with Culpepper, Gonzalez (traded), and Jenkins.  Drafting hasn't been the issue its actually a strength.  My concern is we can get the players to AAA,  then they really struggle with the jump to MLB.  Some of this has to be coaching.   

We have a load of pitchers up and down the minors.  It will be interesting to see how this all pans out.  

[ziggy]

If Falvey is finally driving down a lane someone needs to give him the breathalyzer test. Looks like he is swerving to me.

Plouffe made the most valid point to me a few broadcasts ago when he said the good teams have more coaches in the minors. The Twins players coming up through the system are not fundamentally ready for the majors.   Until Falveys attitude on minor league coaching changes the Twins are stuck with the same type of players on the team as we have recently.

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, TL said:

The Varland deal is the biggest head-scratcher.

The Varland deal brought back the next highest rated prospects after the Duran deal. They're thinking they replaced Larnach with Roden and brought in a starting pitcher with Rojas.

I don't understand why they traded Stewart for Outman, especially since they sent Outman to AAA.

[old nurse]

13 minutes ago, JDubs said:

Rocco has a better win percentage than TK by a healthy margin

In the ate 90s Kelly had very little talent to work with. 

[Brock O. Lee]

To call this a rebuild would indicate that there is a plan to recover. Acquiring ready-now fourth and fifth starters while trading away effective, affordable, and controllable arms (like Varland) leads me to question which season the FO plans to stage the team's comeback. This isn't a rebuild, it's a teardown. 

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

So the plan was to spent 8 years trying win one two game playoff series, then do a complete rebuild ? This FO has been has been one failure after the next. Will yesterday be marked as the official time of death for the MN Twins (for the fans) or will the team continue to pretend they have some relevancy?  

Complete rebuild.  No, they need to rebuild their BP.  The starting pitching is incredibly deep with Lopez / Ryan / Ober / Matthews / Bradley / Festa / Abel and SWR already at the ML level and Rojas / Morris / Prelipp / Culpepper and Raya not far off.

The only change in the INF is Correa and his current level of production will not be hard to replace.  He is already becoming suspect at SS.  We will be far better off with Culpepper at SS and $66m to spend extending some of this young talent.  Lewis is finally hitting and Keaschall takes over 2B.  Add someone who can play 1B and the INF looks considerably better at this time next year. 

Where the OF is concerned we have the same OF as yesterday with several potential upgrades that should be ready next year in the form of Jenkins / GG / Rodriguez.  Outman has produced at the ML level so it's realistic to believe he can again and Roden hit at every level.  Martin looks like he could be a great utility guy.  That's a lot of OF depth.   

They do have a lot of work to do in the BP but it'd not what I think of in terms of a total rebuild.   It could become one if they trade a couple of their established starters this winter.  My bet is they trade one of Pablo / Ryan/Ober given the number of starters they have now.  

[dberthia]

The lane they picked should be barrelling toward Baldelli as well.

[Cory Engelhardt]

16 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

They don't HAVE to trade any of them. But if this is truly a rebuild why wouldn't they trade all 3? Their value isn't going to ever be higher. Assuming Ober comes back and pitches like his usual self the rest of the year and Lopez comes back and proves he's healthy at the end of the year. 2 years of control will be far more valuable than 1.3, 1, or .3. 

No, they don't HAVE to trade those guys, but if, as the article suggests, the Twins truly picked a lane and they're going full rebuild then the absolute right choice is to blow it up and trade those 3 this offseason to get the maximum return. They're the 3 that can really get a rebuild jump started. What's the point of holding them if you're truly doing a rebuild? There is no point. None at all. Their value won't grow and they're all going to be 30 next year so it's not like they'd be part of the rebuilt team anyways.

Don't risk any of them blowing an elbow. If you're rebuilding you trade them all. But that's my point in the other post. I don't think they're rebuilding. I think they're trying to win now and later. And I think it's going to be a disaster.

I more meant they don't HAVE to trade all 3 THIS offseason. They can certainly trade all 3, but one could be this offseason, and then they have the 2026 deadline and the 2027 offseason, along with the 2027 trade deadline to make those decisions. And that's of course assuming there is a 2027 season on time.

But yeah, not all 3 HAVE to go this offseason. That's all I meant. I would be surprised if all 3 are in the rotation to start 2026.

[Riverbrian]

Lot of talk about salary dump in regards to future ownership. 

Who knows... but trying to sift through the aftermath. There were only two moves made that could be considered a salary dump and really only one.

Correa was clearly a salary dump but IT WAS A LOT OF SALARY. That is game changing money coming off the books... it'll cost them 33 million to save 70 million but the Twins were against a financial wall as things stood and that 25 million will give them some flexibility this off-season that wasn't there prior to the deadline. 

As regards to new ownership... what are we really saying?

Are we saying that the current money on the books (temporarily on the books) will discourage a sale and that by trimming it... it will encourage a sale? Is that what we are saying?

If true... that the mid-pack payroll the Twins were rolling out was too rich for the blood of new ownership. If True... Are you all confident that life is going to better with new ownership if temporary payroll for the next 3 years tops is a determining factor on weather a new owner purchases the team. 

These potential owners need to be smarter than that. If I'm buying a team... I'm a buying a team. The roster condition, payroll on year one, two or three is a temporary starting point, where the franchise goes from there is up to me the owner to take it there.

It sends chills down my spine to think that a potential new owner is looking it all over and saying, You know... I'd buy everything looks good, I've looked over the cash flow, I'll absorb this debt, I'll pay the 1.7 billion asking price... but that Correa contract... well... I'm sorry I can't do that... I'm out.  

Is that really what is happening in the negotiation room? 

I think it's more plausible that the Astros agreed to take on the majority of money on the back half of a contract that wasn't exactly stunning in the first half of the contract, I think it's plausible that the other 28 teams were probably not that interested and even if they were, a no trade clause would have to be waived. 

I think it's more plausible that the Twins saw the opportunity and took it. 

Duran? He was probably due a larger than average arb raise so trading him was going to save some money and I think the financial wall they were going to run into meant someone had to go... but this wasn't a purely financial dump because they got two decent prospects back. 

The expiring contracts were all moved... with the exception of Vazquez and I'm sure they tried. 

The surprise came in regards to the bullpen... They emptied that sucker and only Coulombe was an expiring contract. The most plausible explanation to me... doesn't mean I'm right. I think it was a bullpen feeding frenzy and the market was high... so it's possible that the Twins decided to take advantage of the prices being paid. We got back 3 young starters with a lot of potential in return for bullpen guys... don't get me wrong... great bullpen guys but guys who throw 60 innings for 3 guys with the potential for 180 innings. Bradley, Rojas and Abel are 3 guys with decent potential still at a young age. 

 

[Nshore]

Another reason why they need to turn the page on Falvey and Baldelli is the approach of the hitters.  Probably due to the "Statistics God", driving up the starting pitchers' pitch counts seems to be as important as getting a hit.  Seeing lots of pitches and striking out is a "good at bat".  No, a good at bat is putting a dent in the outfield wall with a line drive.  Wallner is as strong a player as they've had, and he should be a knuckle dragging Wallbanger striking fear into the hearts of pitchers.  Instead, he's letting strikes go by and trying to coax a walk like a slap hitting lightweight.

[tony&rodney]

Really? Where is the evidence that Falvey has a plan? This is Year 9. Lane? What have we watched?

The Twins have improved their starting pitching to an extent and after the trades the organization has a new pile of potentially useful arms. This is a positive.

The position players? Pretty much nothing added in the way of fast, defensively skilled strong bats. The entire pile has an 18 year old catcher in A ball to hang its hat on. Some good hitters are more of the same: slow, weak or no glove, or struggle to hit. 

The ownership earns everlasting damnation for not caring, which is best proved not by the payroll but by continuing the employment of Falvey and Baldelli. Don't expect a sale until the price drops quite a bit.

A rebuild can still occur by trading all of Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Jeffers, Lewis, and Buxton if he agrees. None of those players will be around in any event in 3 years. There should be value in those players to acquire actual talent. That talent can then be combined with Culpepper, Jenkins, and E. Rodriguez to move forward.

The FO and manager issue remains though. Will all of the players named above be traded for pitchers and players not worthy of starting positions on other teams? Will we see additions that can run, field, and hit? Hard to trust the FO based on 9 years of their work.

If the lane was to create chaos, a lane was clearly picked. If the idea was to build a team, it is crystal clear that a lane has not been chosen yet .... unless one really thinks that Falvey is trying to damage the franchise and i don't believe that is the case. He just isn't any good at his job.

[CRF]

Yesterday...was NOT a good day. No Twins fan will ever forget July 31, 2025. 

[chinmusic]

Reality. Tonight. In Cleveland.

I'll be listening to Tom Hamilton, the Guardians excellent radio broadcaster.

It'll be interesting. It's still baseball.

 

[Nshore]

20 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

The Varland deal brought back the next highest rated prospects after the Duran deal. They're thinking they replaced Larnach with Roden and brought in a starting pitcher with Rojas.

I don't understand why they traded Stewart for Outman, especially since they sent Outman to AAA.

Outman is a very unfortunate name for a baseball player.  But maybe he's the new face of the franchise.

[Woof Bronzer]

10 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

It sends chills down my spine to think that a potential new owner is looking it all over and saying, You know... I'd buy everything looks good, I've looked over the cash flow, I'll absorb this debt, I'll pay the 1.7 billion asking price... but that Correa contract... well... I'm sorry I can't do that... I'm out.  

It's concerning for sure...could one explanation be that the buyer WON'T absorb the debt, or not all of it, so the Pohlads have been forced to cut costs to offset some of it?  

Most buyers buy teams to make money hand over fist, not to win games. This is standard in business: you don't have to care about (or know anything about) widgets to buy a widget company.  So I doubt a potential buyer cares a lick about baseball at this point, it's all about the proforma.  A buyer, if they care at all about baseball, will start caring about baseball after they've closed on the deal and set up shop.  

[hitterscount]

23 minutes ago, Fred said:

At this point I need to remind you that, at the start of the season, Falvey (and Levine) had put together what was considered to be, by most, "the best bullpen in baseball". I fully understand the Rocco hate.

I assume you haven’t followed what I have been saying the past 18 months?

The pitching staff wasn’t the problem, rather was part of the solution. For that I have given Falvey credit.

But what he put together with the position players is malfeasance at best. France, Larnach and Walner should not have been paired together to be the corner outfielders, no viable 2nd baseman. You could look at this lineup from before spring training and see there was no team speed and they would be horrible fielding. This pitching staff was actually better than their numbers and  were saddled by terrible defense.

What this team needed was a reboot on offense and defense. Trading Bader, France, Correa, Castro all decent moves because they weren’t part of the future. I would argue they should have moved one of Larnach or Wallner. 

The incompetence started in the Duran trade. We didn’t get the value we should have. Oakland received more in the trade with San Diego and IMO I would take Duran over Miller. From there it was a shot show of dumping salaries and getting nothing in return. I guess you could argue Bradley could be a backend guy..

If there was a strategy over the last few days in these trades I am not seeing it. The offense, defense and lack of team speed was the issue. Nothing they did helped to do a major rebuild. Let’s not forget that they tried to trade Ryan, thankfully they had enough of getting screwed they didn’t pull the trigger on another fleece job. 
 

The only hope I have is that the new owners were calling the shots and Rocco and Falvey’s dismissals are coming soon.

[gunnarthor]

I've kind of stopped caring about the Twins. Most of my posts on TD are now about the Vikings. I knew these Twins were going to be bad and boring - again. And they were. I've said for years that Falvey and Levine (who is gone) were given far too much rope and had completely failed in the jobs they were given. I suspect Rocco will be gone after the season and the new owners - whenever that happens - will likely bring in a new front office. Perhaps that FO will have a plan. Until then, I look forward to the TD article on why this was all Terry Ryan's fault. 

[Doctor Gast]

Twins have been in limbo & confusion for so many years because Falvey & Co. are incompetent & have no idea how to manage a team. They have picked a lane, but it's going in the wrong direction on a one-way lane, leading to an accident. The solution isn't taking a distinct lane; it's taking the steering wheel out of their hands.

 

[Bball57]

I think you are correct in saying that they picked a lane, but I think you incorrectly describe the "plan."  This was neither a re-tooling nor a re-build, this was pure and simple a salary dump, let's face facts.

What's surprising to me is that, if there is a buyer for the team out there somewhere, as is being reported, that person or group would allow the current front office to dump controllable players like Duran and Jax.  Further to that point, to my way of thinking, given the demand for bullpen arms at this trade deadline, getting back for Duran (who is under team control through the 2027 season) the Phillies' 4th and 6th rated prospects does not constitute a great return; receiving two of the Phillies' top three prospects would be much more defendable.

I heard a podcast the other day in which I believe it was Patrick Reusse saying that he would have never believed you if you had told him in 2019 that, by the mid-2020s, the Timberwolves would be a fairly well-run franchise and the Twins would be a complete mess.  It's a very sad state of affairs for Minnesota baseball fans!

[tony&rodney]

3 minutes ago, hitterscount said:

I assume you haven’t followed what I have been saying the past 18 months?

The pitching staff wasn’t the problem, rather was part of the solution. For that I have given Falvey credit.

But what he put together with the position players is malfeasance at best. France, Larnach and Walner should not have been paired together to be the corner outfielders, no viable 2nd baseman. You could look at this lineup from before spring training and see there was no team speed and they would be horrible fielding. This pitching staff was actually better than their numbers and  were saddled by terrible defense.

What this team needed was a reboot on offense and defense. Trading Bader, France, Correa, Castro all decent moves because they weren’t part of the future. I would argue they should have moved one of Larnach or Wallner. 

The incompetence started in the Duran trade. We didn’t get the value we should have. Oakland received more in the trade with San Diego and IMO I would take Duran over Miller. From there it was a shot show of dumping salaries and getting nothing in return. I guess you could argue Bradley could be a backend guy..

If there was a strategy over the last few days in these trades I am not seeing it. The offense, defense and lack of team speed was the issue. Nothing they did helped to do a major rebuild. Let’s not forget that they tried to trade Ryan, thankfully they had enough of getting screwed they didn’t pull the trigger on another fleece job. 
 

The only hope I have is that the new owners were calling the shots and Rocco and Falvey’s dismissals are coming soon.

This is exactly what I too have been saying since the Twins lost to Houston in 2023. 

Nothing positive can happen until everything at the top changes.

[Jeff K]

14 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Really? Where is the evidence that Falvey has a plan? This is Year 9. Lane? What have we watched?

The Twins have improved their starting pitching to an extent and after the trades the organization has a new pile of potentially useful arms. This is a positive.

The position players? Pretty much nothing added in the way of fast, defensively skilled strong bats. The entire pile has an 18 year old catcher in A ball to hang its hat on. Some good hitters are more of the same: slow, weak or no glove, or struggle to hit. 

The ownership earns everlasting damnation for not caring, which is best proved not by the payroll but by continuing the employment of Falvey and Baldelli. Don't expect a sale until the price drops quite a bit.

A rebuild can still occur by trading all of Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Jeffers, Lewis, and Buxton if he agrees. None of those players will be around in any event in 3 years. There should be value in those players to acquire actual talent. That talent can then be combined with Culpepper, Jenkins, and E. Rodriguez to move forward.

The FO and manager issue remains though. Will all of the players named above be traded for pitchers and players not worthy of starting positions on other teams? Will we see additions that can run, field, and hit? Hard to trust the FO based on 9 years of their work.

If the lane was to create chaos, a lane was clearly picked. If the idea was to build a team, it is crystal clear that a lane has not been chosen yet .... unless one really thinks that Falvey is trying to damage the franchise and i don't believe that is the case. He just isn't any good at his job.

Yesterday was "the day the music died" for me.   I certainly hope no more deals are made until new ownership can clean out Falvey & Rocco...especially Falvey.  It's to quibble over returns for our players (especially Duran), but I can not wrap my head around moving Varland.  He has real potential to be a top tier closer.  I actually think the one good move was getting 2/3 of the way out of the Correa contract.  You can't rebuild will so much payroll tied to a diminished player. 

That said, I just don't see how the Twins can field even a competitive team in August and September; especially when you consider our best minor league players are mostly at Wichita.  At best, we can look forward to 2027 and that feels like a reach.  

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, LastOnePicked said:

I wanted a rebuild, but I don't think they picked a lane. Selling off long-term controllable assets signals a long-term rebuild, meaning that they would target A-ball or AA prospects with very high ceilings. Instead, too often they traded for failed MLB-ready prospects. As Gleeman noted, they can't even develop their own failed MLB-ready guys, what maxes them think they can fix other team's washouts. What was the thinking? To be ready for some kind of mysterious 2026 playoff run?

The returns are very underwhelming. These trades made the Twins immediately worse, and with a real rebuild mentality, that's fine. But they also made the 2028-29 Twins worse than they could/should have been, and that's insane. Falvey was in over his head yesterday ... and the competition pounced.

Fantastic post.

 

[whitsbrain]

1 hour ago, Glorybound said:

They will be hard pressed to win ten games the rest of the season. Sending out young pitchers to get bludgeoned is not development. Sending out young batters to get overmatched is development either. I doubt that there are more than 2 players that they acquired at deadline that will have a long term impact on the team. I am not sure what would compel someone to buy a ticket to see this crap show. One has to ask are the new owners planning a franchise move?

Has a move of the team even been a subplot here?

I haven't been following much regarding a potential sale of the Twins but just looking at a few items seem to make a move out of Minnesota unlikely. Target Field is ranked 4th by Ballpark Rankings (Target Field Review - Minnesota Twins - Ballpark Ratings), while Minneapolis-St. Paul is the 16th largest metro area by population in the U.S. (Metropolitan statistical area - Wikipedia). The farm system also seems attractive, at least from a location and facilities perspective.

[Swimbo]

As others have stated, this isn't going to be a quick turn around, by the time the prospects we picked up are ready for mlb, the few mlb caliber players we have will be gone or on the down slope of their career. 

Too much value is given to prospects as it is. Sure we all want to believe they will be stars but most of them won't work out. 

[old nurse]

There trading of expiring contracts makes sense. The Correa trade makes sense because Houston wanted him, Houston is his home. They did him a favor as they were not getting what they paid for. Selling as high as you can on Stewart makes sense. Despite the talent and the demand for relievers, Outman was the high bid. He did have one good season 2 years ago. He has hit in the minors. Maybe it is a fixable situation in their eyes. Maybe no one else wanted his injury risk for a playoff push. The Dodgers are a team that is used to breaking pitchers .  The trading of the relievers with years of control is a head scratcher. The Twins had open bidding. The Duran trade met the criteria. Jax and Varland did not.  Both were starters. Jax had wanted to return to starting, Varland I don’t know. A month of bad starting pitching results by anyone not named Joe could have led to some discontent.  Hence a trade. 

Of course there is another plausible scenario. Indeed the Twins are going to be sold. Falvey and company met the new owners and figured out the new guys will be cheaper than the current ones. They did what they reasonably could do to try to keep their jobs. 

[Major League Ready]

50 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

They don't HAVE to trade any of them. But if this is truly a rebuild why wouldn't they trade all 3? Their value isn't going to ever be higher. Assuming Ober comes back and pitches like his usual self the rest of the year and Lopez comes back and proves he's healthy at the end of the year. 2 years of control will be far more valuable than 1.3, 1, or .3. 

No, they don't HAVE to trade those guys, but if, as the article suggests, the Twins truly picked a lane and they're going full rebuild then the absolute right choice is to blow it up and trade those 3 this offseason to get the maximum return. They're the 3 that can really get a rebuild jump started. What's the point of holding them if you're truly doing a rebuild? There is no point. None at all. Their value won't grow and they're all going to be 30 next year so it's not like they'd be part of the rebuilt team anyways.

Don't risk any of them blowing an elbow. If you're rebuilding you trade them all. But that's my point in the other post. I don't think they're rebuilding. I think they're trying to win now and later. And I think it's going to be a disaster.

Absolutely agree that if it's a typical full rebuild they should trade all three.  I think this situation is unique because of the pending sale.  They could trade one of the big three, get an impact prospect back plus a couple others, and remain competitive given their pitching depth. 

If you break it down by SP / RP / INF / OF they only gutted the BP.  The only position player of note to get traded is Correa which is not that big a deal given his current level of play.  We won't lose that much going with Lee and I see that as a net positive once Culpper is here.  Correa is aging out a SS before our eyes.  Culpepper was going to take over anyway.  What were we going to do with Correa.  Lewis looks like the better choice at 3B at the moment.  I realize his rebound is recent but I would take Lewis and the extra money invested elsewhere over Correa.  Keaschall takes over 2B.  That's a net gain.  Now, find a 1B and you have a better infield than we have seen lately with the risk of an albatross contract. 

How about the OF?  Buxton has not slowed down a bit.  We still have Larnach and Wallner but we have several upgrade options no more than a year off if they are really that good.  I believe Buxton and Jenkins are two-thirds of the equation by this time next year.  Between Rodriguez / Gonzalez / Outman / Roden and Martin our OF is upgraded considerably over the present over the course of the next year.

It makes no sense to keep all three but I see them working hard to remain competitive while they remake this team.  I think one or maybe two of Pablo / Ryan / Ober get traded this off-season.  I could see one going in the off-season and another at the deadline next year as they reconfigure the starting rotation around Matthews / Bradley / Abel / Rojas / Festa / Prelipp.  I am not sure about SWR.  They also have higher end pitching prospects like Soto / Hill / Quick and a couple others who look to have high ceilings.  

Where does that leave us?  I completely agree with you but think it plays out more slowly than trading all three of this winer.

[tony&rodney]

2 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Larnach, Waller, Lewis, Julian, and Miranda

.... are all pure DH's on their best day. None of these players have any more value than Michael Tonkin. Without major changes to their swings and approach at the plate they will not be on an MLB team much longer.

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, NYCTK said:

Buxton and Royce. The starting pitching improved yesterday (though undoubtedly will be traded from in future trade windows). 

And then the Twins do have a lot of good position player talent in the high majors. Lee, Keaschall, Jenkins, Rodriguez, Culpepper, Gonzalez, Mendez, Roden, Eeles, et al. These players are all under 26 and will all be given a chance to prove themselves. There's a lot to like in that group. And there will be complete busts as well. But with 26 a chance to develop them, and early 27 a chance to really set the future up, this team can compete in 2027. 

Anyone concerned about holes in the bullpen, bullpen arms are made every day. Even top end bullpen arms are available quite frequently, as we saw the last couple days from multiple teams. Not just the Twins. If 2027 comes around and there's some holes in the bullpen there can be moves made. 

 

There is zero chance the Twins are winning in 2027. None. Particularly after Lopez and probably Ryan are dealt this winter. 

I know you like to play the  contrarian but this just makes you look foolish.

None more foolish than the idea quality bullpen are just waiting out there any time you need one.

[Doctor Wu]

14 minutes ago, hitterscount said:

The incompetence started in the Duran trade. We didn’t get the value we should have. Oakland received more in the trade with San Diego and IMO I would take Duran over Miller.

I'm still annoyed about that trade. For a reliever of Duran's quality, still under team control for 2 years, why didn't we get greater value?

[Doctor Wu]

2 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

.... are all pure DH's on their best day. None of these players have any more value than Michael Tonkin. Without major changes to their swings and approach at the plate they will not be on an MLB team much longer.

Sad but true. The Twins seem to be a breeding ground for DH types.