The Twins Finally Picked a Lane

[Riverbrian]

10 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Could it be that they are really high on Culpepper and want him at SS?  Correa could bounce but he does not look like a SS going forward and his bat does not play as well at 3B, especially if we get the good version of Royce Lewis.  BTW .... I just checked baseball savant and Lewis is in the 87th percentile for range at 3B.  Of course, Correa's arm is quite a bit better.  I think it's quite possible the twins saw the team as being better by the end of next year with Culpepper at SS and Lewis at 3B with an extra $20M plus to spend on other needs or extensions?

The money could be used at some point (probably not next year) on a 1B or Catcher if they are unable to fill those holes.

Clearing the path for other SS possibilities would be a consideration but as much as I talk about the need for pre-arb talent. I would still consider it dangerous to lock on to one developing player and prematurely clear space.

I think Lee will get the SS spot while Culpepper cooks a bit but I can't be sure.   

[NYCTK]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Complete rebuild.  No, they need to rebuild their BP.  The starting pitching is incredibly deep with Lopez / Ryan / Ober / Matthews / Bradley / Festa / Abel and SWR already at the ML level and Rojas / Morris / Prelipp / Culpepper and Raya not far off.

The only change in the INF is Correa and his current level of production will not be hard to replace.  He is already becoming suspect at SS.  We will be far better off with Culpepper at SS and $66m to spend extending some of this young talent.  Lewis is finally hitting and Keaschall takes over 2B.  Add someone who can play 1B and the INF looks considerably better at this time next year. 

Where the OF is concerned we have the same OF as yesterday with several potential upgrades that should be ready next year in the form of Jenkins / GG / Rodriguez.  Outman has produced at the ML level so it's realistic to believe he can again and Roden hit at every level.  Martin looks like he could be a great utility guy.  That's a lot of OF depth.   

They do have a lot of work to do in the BP but it'd not what I think of in terms of a total rebuild.   It could become one if they trade a couple of their established starters this winter.  My bet is they trade one of Pablo / Ryan/Ober given the number of starters they have now.  

100% agree. 

I understand how sad it is to see 5 players that you thought would be part of the team for many years depart. But 4 of those 5 are bullpen arms. 

Like you said, the starting pitch depth is now actually really deep with 8 Major League ready, and a few bubbling under. A handful of pitchers like Morris and Raya that have some intrigue but probably more suited to a future in the bullpen. 

Let's say they do continue the selloff, punt '26 and sell Ryan and Jeffers. That's going to bring in some great return as well.

So, just assuming they're able to patch together a competent bullpen, and the SP remains strong, they have a roster: 

IF: Royce, Lee, Culpepper, Schobel, Eeles, Keaschall

OF: Buxton, Jenkins, Roden, Rodriguez, Mendez, Gonzalez

Not the best batch of prospects, will leave some holes, but enticing for sure. Get to spend a season and a half seeing who works and who doesn't. Bring in some athleticism. And can fill holes with the Ryan return, Jeffers swap, or even free agency given the $50+ million in savings come 2027 by moving those five players. 

I'm really, really not concerned about the long term health of the Twins bullpen. It'd actually be pretty sweet if the Twins could make this part of their identity, do this every 3 years. Creating reliable bullpen arms and then shipping them off if they're not showing themselves as a contender come the end of July. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, mnfireman said:

Looking at future payroll commitments on Baseball Reference, I don't think the fire sale is done and the team may be in this lane for awhile. Keep in mind that only Buxton and Lopez have guaranteed contracts in '26 and '27 and only Buxton in '28.

2026 - $96.2 MM ($97.2 MM if Topa's option is exercised). This includes estimated arb cases, room to add FA's but....

2027 - $172.4 MM. Ober, Ryan, Larnach, and Lewis third trip through arbitration (Lewis also gets a fourth trip). Bunch of others reach arbitration for the first time, the low salaries get considerably higher. Several players will probably be DFA'd

2028 - $193 MM. Roster full of arbitration eligible players including Lewis's fourth trip. 

I think there will be several off-season trades to get '27 & '28 payroll under control, not to mention several fringe/role player's being DFA'd.

The 2027 estimate is at least $30M too high. They are estimating escalating arbitration costs for players who aren't even on the 40-man roster at the moment (Bride, Duarte) as well as players like Miranda who will not be tendered a contract. If they don't make moves, they're looking at $140M in 2027 and 2028.

[NYCTK]

8 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

.970 OPS in AAA right now. 20 Dingers. 14 Stolen bases. He's pretty good defensive player. .933 last year in AAA. 

I get it... his age isn't great at 28. His 2024 was a disaster at the Major League Level and the Dodgers are not going to have playing time available for a project. His 2023 was fantastic. Power, Speed, Defense is the reward if he can fix whatever ailed him last year.

44 AB's this year doesn't tell me anything. 

I'm not saying he's a slam dunk but I'd like to see him get a shot with us in a lost year. 

And he's not due real money until 2028. With no team able to fully commit to Buxton as their CF, it's not the dumbest idea to just have the perennial 4th OF on the roster. 

It's a bit weird, but I get the reasoning. 

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

One short series PO win in 9 seasons. That is failure. A coupled of other PO appearances. One convincing season, 2019, in all of this. That is failure. Unwatchable baseball from a listless team much of the time. That is failure. Yet here they are still in control of the front office. Ready to bring us more failure. The Catching situation is a great example. Vazquez will be gone soon, at the most by the end of the season. That will leave Jeffers for 2026. We will once again be relying on a catcher who should only be a part timer. Right now no tandem is even in tow with him. Oh but now we have Jimenez and Tait. So what? They are 3 years at best away from helping this team. This is failure.

This will be '22 all over again when Jeffers was the primary catcher. Very quickly, he crashed & burned. Tait isn't a catcher; he's only a bat, but that's all Twins care about. It's much too early to know how Jimenez will turn out. How MN is developing catchers, it'll be a long time, if ever at all.

[NYCTK]

8 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

The 2027 estimate is at least $30M too high. They are estimating escalating arbitration costs for players who aren't even on the 40-man roster at the moment (Bride, Duarte) as well as players like Miranda who will not be tendered a contract. If they don't make moves, they're looking at $140M in 2027 and 2028.

I see a payroll of about $90 Million right now for '27, but that's including all 3 of the expensive starting pitchers and only includes 10 players total. So approximately another $25 million to fill out the roster with league mins, and cheap bullpen arms brings the payroll to $115 Million. 

This roster has a lot of shaking up to do yet. Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach will not both be contributors in '27. The likes of Austin Martin and Kody Clemens, not going to be a part of the '27 roster.

In the event the young crop of talent in Wichita looks like they're ready to compete, they can fill in holes with that $40 Million, and maybe add another $20 M to that pool if Lopez/Ryan are traded away. 

It's going to be a challenge. But this organization is not in a terrible spot.

[TheLeviathan]

A couple things I think are clear need to happen in the offseason:

1) Pablo Lopez trade.  Right now they have Ryan-Bradley-Ober-Zebby-Festa-SWR and others that can fill in the rotation.  If I had to timeline what they did today, it's build for 2028.

2) Shop Joe Ryan if you don't give him an extension.  I'd rather give him 5 years 130M and call it a day....but if ownership and money is an issue - keep pressing the Red Sox for Roman Anthony.

3) Left-handed hitting corner guys are way too plentiful at this point.  We're going to need to balance the roster out a bit.  I like giving Outman LF for the next year and a half and see what we got.  It's time for Larnach to go IMO.  Give Roden 1B, Outman LF, Wallner RF, and get yourself a right handed guy.  Larnach for bullpen help would make a lot of sense IMO.

4) Clear the path for 2026 to be young guys and letting them audition to see if they are part of the future.  Austin Martin needs a spot.  Julien needs a spot.  Sabato maybe.  Brooks Lee at SS every day.  Keaschall at whatever spot he's destined for every day.  I'm probably missing others, but it's time to invest in changing the culture here:

Run the god damn bases.  Play like athletes.  Let Buck be the true culture leader in the locker room.

[David Maro]

The best trade yesterday was Correa back to the Astros. With his bad feet and declining play the cost was too high. 

The trade of Varland and Jax was all about them wanting to be SP. Also the Jax blow up at Rocco made the manager look bad. And everyone knows that is a no no.

[Mike Sixel]

15 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

This will be '22 all over again when Jeffers was the primary catcher. Very quickly, he crashed & burned. Tait isn't a catcher; he's only a bat, but that's all Twins care about. It's much too early to know how Jimenez will turn out. How MN is developing catchers, it'll be a long time, if ever at all.

You literally have no idea what Tait is at this point. He's 19. 

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

A couple things I think are clear need to happen in the offseason:

1) Pablo Lopez trade.  Right now they have Ryan-Bradley-Ober-Zebby-Festa-SWR and others that can fill in the rotation.  If I had to timeline what they did today, it's build for 2028.

2) Shop Joe Ryan if you don't give him an extension.  I'd rather give him 5 years 130M and call it a day....but if ownership and money is an issue - keep pressing the Red Sox for Roman Anthony.

3) Left-handed hitting corner guys are way too plentiful at this point.  We're going to need to balance the roster out a bit.  I like giving Outman LF for the next year and a half and see what we got.  It's time for Larnach to go IMO.  Give Roden 1B, Outman LF, Wallner RF, and get yourself a right handed guy.  Larnach for bullpen help would make a lot of sense IMO.

4) Clear the path for 2026 to be young guys and letting them audition to see if they are part of the future.  Austin Martin needs a spot.  Julien needs a spot.  Sabato maybe.  Brooks Lee at SS every day.  Keaschall at whatever spot he's destined for every day.  I'm probably missing others, but it's time to invest in changing the culture here:

Run the god damn bases.  Play like athletes.  Let Buck be the true culture leader in the locker room.

All that but Outman seem like ideas. 

[Nashvilletwin]

In preparation for the ‘27 lockout, the Twins are reducing salary and commitments.  The trades indicate a concerted focus on building the depth of the rotation. They have almost ten candidates (not counting Ryan and Lopez) with some of them destined to help rebuild the bullpen. Look for both Ryan and Lopez (does he have a no trade clause?) to be moved over the offseason or by the ‘26 trade deadline at the latest.  Buxton stays unless he wants to chase a ring. Jeffers could be gone at the ‘26 deadline too with an eye on the young catchers being ready in ‘28 after ‘27 is cancelled. After that it’s bits and bobs and a few extensions.

The Twins are building for ‘28 with a payroll approaching $75MM. 

[Dennesey55347]

4 hours ago, Ole St Carleton said:

I wouldn’t mind this sell-off if the coaching staff could actually guide the upcoming youngsters toward playing effective baseball. Baldelli & crew have consistently failed to coach the offense to successfully bunt, move runners, sacrifice, run bases, take a 2 strike approach etc. Look at how Milwaukee dismantled the Twins during their last series. Of course, all of this needs to begin in the low minor league levels.

It’s sad to see Tom Kelly’s brand of winning baseball being fumbled into oblivion.

My thoughts exactly. They're doing something right in the pitching dept, but have to be near the bottom for hitter development.

[Danchat]

As one who was all for a tear-down... I just never expected it at this level, I didn't think Falvey had it in him. And while I think the Pohlads had a hand behind the Correa move, I think the rest of it was all him, especially the Stewart and Varland trades.

As mentioned by others, it's a strange mix of very young and MLB-ready fix-er-uppers. I just don't like the returns for the Duran, Jax, and Stewart trades (Coloumbe and Correa trades also stink but that figures). I think the Varland deal reveals the intention behind the deal, there simply aren't enough reinforcements coming from the minors the next couple years when Falvey knows he won't have much FA money to spend, so he's got to try and split one quality player into two. Our minor league system before this week was frankly not very good and needed depth.

What I don't get is the choice of return in some of these deals... the biggest piece in the Duran trade is a non-consensus top 100 prospect whose future at catcher is shaky and is only 19? Don't get me started on the Twins' success rates with international prospects at that age, who remembers the likes of Wander Javier and Misael Urbina? How does Jax go for a straight-up one-for-one trade for a starter that the Rays can't figure out and will be up for arbitration soon? The heck is the plan for the outfield with adding three lefties in Outman, Roden, and even Mendez?

I just wonder if Falvey and his minions have a strange taste for prospects because I wholeheartedly believe that other teams made offers for Duran and Jax that we would have liked a lot better.

[Doctor Gast]

25 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

You literally have no idea what Tait is at this point. He's 19. 

Give me a break, Mike. A good defensive potential & overall 18/19 yr.old catcher you might say you have no idea if he can make it. Tait has no potential at defense. Well-respected pundits have said that he won't stick at catcher, But leave it to the Twins & you to think he can miraculously learn to be a passable defensive catcher on his own. 

[mnfireman]

39 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

The 2027 estimate is at least $30M too high. They are estimating escalating arbitration costs for players who aren't even on the 40-man roster at the moment (Bride, Duarte) as well as players like Miranda who will not be tendered a contract. If they don't make moves, they're looking at $140M in 2027 and 2028.

I understand that many of the arb eligible players will not be here and even stated so. I was just pointing out that even with yesterday's big sell off, big paydays are looming for the "core players" that haven't panned out (yet?) and will require more front office moves.

[Woof Bronzer]

The "plan" is becoming clearer:  insult the intelligence of fans with smarmy holier-than-thou messaging, and just flat out lie about what happened and what they're going to do next, which is lose a ton of games. 

Full text of Falvey's letter below for those who haven't seen it. 

Absolute screaming joke of an organization.  

 

"This week, we made a clear and deliberate decision to strengthen the next chapter of championship-caliber baseball for the Minnesota Twins.

"We didn't make surface moves. We acted with purpose. That meant adding players who can help now, deepening our talent pipeline for 2026 and beyond, and reinforcing the foundation for long-term success.

"This wasn't about patchwork or small adjustments. It was about holding ourselves to the standard we expect. The season so far hasn't met that mark. We knew it was time to respond.

"We've bolstered our pitching. We added arms ready to contribute now, along with others on the cusp of breaking through. The rotation has gained depth, and the minor league system behind it has become even more robust, with emerging talent pushing the group forward.

"On the position player side, we brought in impact potential. Players with the tools to grow into everyday contributors and raise the overall ceiling of the roster. The foundation is getting stronger, and we believe the next wave is starting to take shape.

"We know moves like this spark reactions. That's natural. It reflects how much you care.

"That's why we're positioning the Twins to compete at a higher level, not just in the short term, but in a way that can endure the ups and downs of a long season. That's the kind of team you deserve.

"The mission hasn't changed. We're here to build a team that can win a World Series.

"This is the next push.

"Thank you for your support. It's your passion that drives us every day."

[Parfigliano]

5 hours ago, Patzky said:

If this remainder of the team can plod along with the same winning percentage as the "good enough to win the division" roster did, what does that say? They were right to tear it down?

The fans though and the players.. I really do feel for them. 

I bet more then a few of those traded feel like they hit the lottery in getting away from TC.

[Patzky]

Falvey's letter to season ticket holders, from Fox 9

 

"This week, we made a clear and deliberate decision to strengthen the next chapter of championship-caliber baseball for the Minnesota Twins.

"We didn’t make surface moves. We acted with purpose. That meant adding players who can help now, deepening our talent pipeline for 2026 and beyond, and reinforcing the foundation for long-term success.

"This wasn’t about patchwork or small adjustments. It was about holding ourselves to the standard we expect. The season so far hasn’t met that mark. We knew it was time to respond.

"We’ve bolstered our pitching. We added arms ready to contribute now, along with others on the cusp of breaking through. The rotation has gained depth, and the minor league system behind it has become even more robust, with emerging talent pushing the group forward.

"On the position player side, we brought in impact potential. Players with the tool to grow into everyday contributors and raise the overall ceiling of the roster. The foundation is getting stronger, and we believe the next wave is starting to take shape. 

"We know moves like this spark reactions. That’s natural. It reflects how much you care.

"That’s why we’re positioning the Twins to compete at a higher level, not just in the short term, but in a way that can endure the ups and downs of a long season. That’s the kind of team you deserve. 

"The mission hasn’t changed. We’re here to build a team that can win a World Series. This is the next push. Thank you for your support. It’s your passion that drives us every day."

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

The money being used? Good one. 

People keep saying this, but they spent about $20M more this year than people were predicting here.  People also said they would never sign Correa in the first place or Donaldson.  There were a lot of skeptics where extending Buxton was concerned and they did extend Pablo so this assertion they never spend is just not true.   I am also expecting new ownership to be a little more aggressive out of the gate.

[Parfigliano]

5 hours ago, hitterscount said:

They hit the exit lane and took the off ramp without a strategy.

Their own actions speak of the gross incompetence in putting together the team. Rocco and Falvey should be given the same treatment within the first 10 seconds after the sale of the team.

Fire them now.  Right now.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Major League Ready said:

People keep saying this, but they spent about $20M more this year than people were predicting here.  People also said they would never sign Correa in the first place or Donaldson.  There were a lot of skeptics where extending Buxton was concerned and they did extend Pablo so this assertion they never spend is just not true.   I am also expecting new ownership to be a little more aggressive out of the gate.

If they have new owners, I agree, they'll want to make a good impression (and maybe even want to spend more to win). 

[Major League Ready]

59 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Clearing the path for other SS possibilities would be a consideration but as much as I talk about the need for pre-arb talent. I would still consider it dangerous to lock on to one developing player and prematurely clear space.

I think Lee will get the SS spot while Culpepper cooks a bit but I can't be sure.   

Could not agree more.  I had stated in another post that they have a replacement in Lee.  While I am not a big Lee fan, he is not much of a drop-off given Correa's current production.  Lee is the bridge to Culpepper and hopefully we don't wait for whoever is the plan B to Culpepper.

[Patzky]

18 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

I bet more then a few of those traded feel like they hit the lottery in getting away from TC.

I have a feeling the Anonymous Twin who was quoted as saying that everyone would want to leave was Louie. Weird but France might say that too.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Outman strikes out 40 percent of the time. He's a DFA waiting to happen. 

They also have Gonzalez and Martin.

So, they are getting rid of Larnach and Wallner? And didn't trade them? 

I am looking at this in the context of the next year (Deadline 2026)  I think they get rid of at least one of Larnach / Wallner.  They will evaluate all the potential OFers at the end of the year.  If they have a replacement, at least one of Larnach / Wallner is traded.  Probably Larnach.  Given we have two very good prospects in AA, I could see another traded at next year's deadline unless Wallner is crushing.  In that case he can DH a play RF part-time.

Outman produced 3..9 WAR in his first season with a 35%K rate.  The 40% rate you cited was 44 PAs.   His value is he can play CF.  I agree he might flame out but he might also start hitting again, improve that K rate a little, and be a pretty valuable player.  Don't get me wrong, Outman was not what I would have chosen in trade for Stewart.  I hated it, but I can see what they were thinking.  We will have to let it play out.

[Parfigliano]

5 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Ya'll wanted them to blow it up.  They blew it up.  I don't wanna hear bitchin

"Blowed up.  Blowed up real good."

[laloesch]

5 hours ago, Ole St Carleton said:

I wouldn’t mind this sell-off if the coaching staff could actually guide the upcoming youngsters toward playing effective baseball. Baldelli & crew have consistently failed to coach the offense to successfully bunt, move runners, sacrifice, run bases, take a 2 strike approach etc. Look at how Milwaukee dismantled the Twins during their last series. Of course, all of this needs to begin in the low minor league levels.

It’s sad to see Tom Kelly’s brand of winning baseball being fumbled into oblivion.

Baldelli should be let go at seasons end, extension be damned.  He's not the answer.  He's a nice guy but they need a different kind of coach, one that pushes the fundamentals HARD and I mean hard.  This is my opinion only, but I think that Baldelli never was that kind of coach.  He might have been a player's coach which is fine in some situations, but sometimes with young players you need a coach, coach, someone that will set hard goals, be the tough guy in the room, and push these youngsters instilling the winner's drive in them.  With this rebuild they need it more than ever.  This organization needs to build a winning culture again.  The last few years the previous group often looked bored in the field, disinterested at times aside from the 13-game winning streak. That can't continue if the Twins want to turn this situation around.  They also need new ownership but that's a whole different topic.

The next few years are likely going to be very very rough.  They've gutted the bullpen completely, traded away much of the lineup, and now are left with A LOT of prospects from different organizations with different philosophies.  It's gonna take a real mastermind to mesh all of it back together and get this team moving in the right direction.  

Ashes to ashes, dust to dust.  But this will not be the end.

[Fred]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I was anxiously awaiting the details of the Stewart trade.  There were several possible scenarios I had concocted in my head.  Outman was not one of them so I was quite disappointed.  Obviously, our FO believes he can be the player that produced almost 4 WAR in his first season.  I sure hope they are right.  The silver lining is I am not at all worried about our OF.  Buck sure looks like he has a few good years left in him.  I want to believe Wallner can be a 900 OPS guy and Jenkins will be here soon enough.  Between GG / Rodriguez / Martin / Outman and Roden, we should be able to put together a very good OF by this time next year.

I'm wondering how many years before Outman is playing in Korea, ala Jake Cave, who is also a AAA star. I'm such a pessimist!

[Fred]

2 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

I know there's still a Blewett out there. Go get him. One can only hope they can find guys named Poppout, Bust and Hazbin, too. Get to know 'em!

Is Randballs Stu up to this kind of competition? We'll find out!

[karcherd]

And now it looks like Keaschall isn't coming up yet.  Get him up here, what is the plan.

[old nurse]

4 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Complete rebuild.  No, they need to rebuild their BP.  The starting pitching is incredibly deep with Lopez / Ryan / Ober / Matthews / Bradley / Festa / Abel and SWR already at the ML level and Rojas / Morris / Prelipp / Culpepper and Raya not far off.

The only change in the INF is Correa and his current level of production will not be hard to replace.  He is already becoming suspect at SS.  We will be far better off with Culpepper at SS and $66m to spend extending some of this young talent.  Lewis is finally hitting and Keaschall takes over 2B.  Add someone who can play 1B and the INF looks considerably better at this time next year. 

Where the OF is concerned we have the same OF as yesterday with several potential upgrades that should be ready next year in the form of Jenkins / GG / Rodriguez.  Outman has produced at the ML level so it's realistic to believe he can again and Roden hit at every level.  Martin looks like he could be a great utility guy.  That's a lot of OF depth.   

They do have a lot of work to do in the BP but it'd not what I think of in terms of a total rebuild.   It could become one if they trade a couple of their established starters this winter.  My bet is they trade one of Pablo / Ryan/Ober given the number of starters they have now.  

Mathew’s and Festa have had 18-25 starts at the MLB level. Bradley and Abel probably jump ahead of them and they go to the bullpen. They could be used as paired with SWR, Bradley and Abel. Part of the bullpen would have to be on the AAA/MLB merry go round. Any of them would get to go out and throw their 80 pitches and sit   Clems and Wallner become the mop up crew