Could the Blue Jays Overpay for Jhoan Duran at the Trade Deadline?

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Brad Rempel-Imagn Images

The MLB trade deadline is fast approaching, and few names carry as much intrigue and raw firepower as Twins closer Jhoan Duran. With the Blue Jays hovering at the top of the AL East and looking to make a serious push in October, the fit between buyer and seller is starting to crystallize. Toronto doesn’t need just any reliever. They need someone capable of shifting the late-inning dynamic in a postseason series. They already paid handsomely for Jeff Hoffman to be the fireman this winter, but we live in the era of the super-bullpen—and if it's 'super' a team is chasing, Duran fits that description better than almost anyone else on the market.

The Jays’ Track Record of Aggression
Toronto has made a habit of being one of the league’s most active teams at the deadline under general manager Ross Atkins. Since 2016, every year in which they’ve acted as buyers, they’ve pulled off at least three trades, often with a focus on pitching. In 2020 and 2022, they added three or more arms to their staff, and the approach has consistently paid off by raising the club’s floor down the stretch. From Jordan Hicks and Whit Merrifield to José Berríos and Anthony Bass, Toronto has been willing to spend prospect capital in exchange for reliable production.

This year, the script feels similar. The Jays are thriving, but injuries have tested their depth at every level. What they lack now isn’t patchwork solutions, it’s elite talent. Specifically, they need a game-changer at the back of the bullpen.

Why Duran Could Be on the Block
Minnesota finds itself in a complicated spot. The Twins are still on the fringes of the playoff picture, but the front office is likely open to creative deals, if they can fetch long-term value in return. Trading Duran would be a massive move, both symbolically and strategically, but it's not out of the question.

Duran, still just 27, remains one of the most electric arms in baseball. He boasts a triple-digit fastball, a wicked splinker, and elite strikeout rates (26.3 K% in 2025). Through the 2025 season’s first half, he’s posted a 1.52 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, while converting 14 save opportunities. Despite being one of the American League’s most dominant relievers, Duran was somehow left off the All-Star roster, a snub that could still be corrected as injury replacements are named over the weekend.

Crucially, Duran is under team control through the 2027 season. The Blue Jays, like many teams, have shown a preference for adding players with team control. That extended runway of affordability makes him more than a rental. It makes him a long-term bullpen anchor, which significantly ups his trade value.

The Prospect Price Tag
If the Blue Jays want to land Duran, they’ll need to come to the table with a significant offer, and they have the pieces to make it happen. According to MLB Pipeline, Toronto’s top five prospects offer a compelling blend of upside and proximity to the majors:

SS Arjun Nimmala (No. 1) – One of the most exciting teenage infielders in the minors, Nimmala offers premium bat speed and a strong arm at shortstop. Still just 19, he’s raw but oozes star potential. At High-A, he is hitting .238/.325/.416 with 11 homers and 17 doubles. The Twins would be hard-pressed to pass up a deal involving a talent of this caliber, though it’s unlikely the Jays would consider moving him for even an elite reliever. Nimmala might be in play if, instead, the Jays lock in on Twins starter Joe Ryan.

RHP Trey Yesavage (No. 2) – A polished college arm from East Carolina, Yesavage was Toronto’s 2024 first-round pick and has quickly ascended the system as he reached Double-A this season. In 16 starts (67 2/3 IP), he has a 3.19 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP. With a deep pitch mix and strong command, he profiles as a mid-rotation starter who could reach the majors as soon as 2026.

2B/3B Orelvis Martinez (No. 3) – Recently promoted to the big leagues, Martinez brings major right-handed power and positional flexibility. He’s spent time at second base and third base and could help the Twins immediately, though questions remain about his plate discipline. He was a consensus top-100 prospect entering last season, so his stock has fallen. He’s struggled at Triple-A this season, with a .653 OPS in 74 games. 

LHP Ricky Tiedemann (No. 4) – Once considered one of the top left-handed pitching prospects in baseball, Tiedemann has battled injuries but still flashes frontline stuff when healthy. He underwent Tommy John surgery in July 2024, which will likely sideline him for most (if not all) of the 2025 season. His upside is tantalizing, but durability is the key concern.

The Twins would require one of the top three names as the centerpiece in any Duran trade, particularly given his dominance and years of team control. Packaging a bat like Martinez with a pitcher such as Tiedemann or Yesavage could be enough to grab Minnesota’s attention, especially if Toronto is serious about upgrading their bullpen with a true game-changer.

Why This Could Work
For Minnesota, dealing Duran would be painful but potentially transformative. They could acquire controllable talent to bolster their farm or fill immediate gaps, especially with the pitching pipeline still under development. For Toronto, it’s a matter of maximizing their current window with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and a rotation built to win now.

This is the kind of deal that takes nerve. It requires the Blue Jays to bet on Duran being the difference-maker in October. It requires the Twins to look past 2025 and see the bigger picture. But if the market shapes up as expected, with few true closers available and several contenders shopping, Minnesota might hold the single most valuable bullpen chip available.

Will the Blue Jays be bold enough to push all their chips in? If so, Duran might just be headed north of the border, and the Twins could walk away with a franchise-altering haul. 

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Would the Blue Jays be willing to overpay for Duran? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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[Patzky]

You'll support a move like this if you recognize that our window is a couple years away. You'll look for an alternative move that might yield a little less (Jax? Varland and Coulombe?) if you're trying to improve to compete now. You'll say no thanks if you think we are good enough to win in 2025-6.

Detroit's window is now but without $kubal and an aging Baez it could be short . . Cleveland won't spend and the Sox are three to five years away. 

I love the guy but we already have a couple usable closers if we don't need to win in 2025. Get bats. Or talk to LA and get position strength.

[DJL44]

Yesavage has some high upside. That would be hard to turn down for a reliever.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I have been saying for years that Duran should be a trade candidate. He has been fantastic this year, but in previous years he was closer to Eddie Guardado than Joe Nathan. 

Sell high, especially for an overpay.

[Brett]

Only if we get a catcher. Not sure the Jays can meet that demand.

[Dman]

I'd think the Twins would want a promising arm that is fairly close in any deal given that we don't know what Ober looks like long term and with arb raises for Ryan and Ober and others they might want to unload a starting pitcher to save money.  Granted moving Duran will help with the money side somewhat.

They likely are only getting one headliner for a reliever though and then maybe a prospect in the 10 to 15 range and possibly some lotto's.

I don't know what to think of Yesavage and his 6.00 ERA in AA.  He is so young and the sample so small.  The K rate looks good which is encouraging, but he would have to be in the deal for me as I don't see much else for arms I would want in a Duran deal.

I do agree that it would be nice to find a catcher prospect in this deal that has legit promise, but I'd settle for a big arm and a bat in the 10 to 15 range that looks promising.

My ideal deal would be with the Phillies and getting Abel and Tait somehow.  That is too rich for just Duran but maybe if they throw in Castro and or Coulombe?  Maybe that would get it done.  That would give you a very close arm one that has already pitched at the MLB level and a catcher with a 60 arm who is hitting well at A ball right now.

[twinstalker]

Nimmala isn't remotely on the table for anyone.  Yesavage is very hit and miss.  His motion and delivery is...well, I don't even know how to describe it.  It's close to straight overhead and "hard."  It appears to have little chance of repeatability, affecting control and making command a pipe dream.  It comes at the batter fast, making college and low minors hitters uncomfortable.  He has a chance, but I'm not as high on him as I was prior to watching him pitch.

Orelvis Martinez is in no way a major league hitter.  We should know that, right?

Tiedemann almost certainly will end up in the pen.  They also have Alan Roden, who's a better Larnach best case but more likely the same guy in a year.  The Jays system was seemingly empty to start the year, aside from Nimmala, and that's why 1st round pick Yesavage is listed at 2.  There have been some developments, from what I understand, but I'd be surprised if any are worthy of giving them Duran.

The Twins would be wise to do anything it can to acquire Nimmala, but I don't really think it's possible.  Perhaps they could give Duran and EmRod for Nimmala and Roden, but I doubt any team would accept EmRod as an impactful part of a deal for a future star like Nimmala.

If the Twins take Orelvis Martinez back in any deal, it's further evidence they don't know what they're doing on the hitting side.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

29 minutes ago, Brett said:

Only if we get a catcher. Not sure the Jays can meet that demand.

You go with the greatest overpay.  You can always trade for a Catcher.  Our plans could change a bit and beyond based on the draft this weekend. More and more my hope is for some reason Ike Irish falls and pick him at 16 and he is able to stick as a Catcher.  He could/should be a fast riser and a situation where you may only need a place holder at C for a year or 2.  We honestly do have some depth options at AA and AAA for C.  Just no one with a bigger name or profile that you would expect to run with the position.  

I am ok with smaller trades but I am leaning more and more that I would be ok if the Twins traded a Ryan, Jax or Duran.    

[farmerguychris]

If we ever going to trade him, should be between now and this upcoming off season.

He's still elite, but no longer possess the fire of the 104 mph fastball.

His value is only going to go down from here.

Choices are to either trade him, or watch his body continue to deteriorate.

Relievers burn bright, but burn out fast.

Would be sad to see him go, but if the topic of this article is accurate, I'd be ok moving on if they, in fact, are willing to overpay for him.

[Doctor Gast]

8 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

You go with the greatest overpay.  You can always trade for a Catcher.  Our plans could change a bit and beyond based on the draft this weekend. More and more my hope is for some reason Ike Irish falls and pick him at 16 and he is able to stick as a Catcher.  He could/should be a fast riser and a situation where you may only need a place holder at C for a year or 2.  We honestly do have some depth options at AA and AAA for C.  Just no one with a bigger name or profile that you would expect to run with the position.  

I am ok with smaller trades but I am leaning more and more that I would be ok if the Twins traded a Ryan, Jax or Duran.    

I can see your rationale because that is what they always say in the draft. Pick the best player, then trade for a catcher but that never happens. Irish won't stick at catcher, they may not waste their time on him out of the gate in pro ball.

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, Brett said:

Only if we get a catcher. Not sure the Jays can meet that demand.

Dodgertown

 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

26 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I can see your rationale because that is what they always say in the draft. Pick the best player, then trade for a catcher but that never happens. Irish won't stick at catcher, they may not waste their time on him out of the gate in pro ball.

You can't say Irish won't stick at catcher.  The Twins have actually taken some decent bat 1st players and tried to make them into catchers.  It appears they are doing more work with Gasper,  they are doing it with Ferrer. Ryan Jeffers is the prime example.   Irish is more likely to be gone by the Twins pick and we will see which direction they go.  Go look back at Ryan Jeffers and tell me what is that much different. 

"Jeffers was not listed in MLB.com’s top-200 draft-eligible prospects list, and was No. 295 on the list compiled by Baseball America.

The guys at BA remarked about his consistent numbers, but aren’t sure about his ability to stick behind the plate due to an average arm back there. He’s not much of a runner and there’s a question of how his bat will transfer over to using wood full-time."

[jmlease1]

Duran is the right kind of guy to move if you can get a team to make an overpay because of the inflated value teams place on the title of "closer". He's awesome, and I don't want him to leave, but he's starting to get more expensive (you have to figure he's looking at an arbitration figure of at least $8M next season, so even a multi-year, team-friendly-ish deal would be looking at at 2/$20M or 3/$35M). And we do have options in-house to fill that role (Jax, Varland, or Stewart could all get there, and Sands is someone that might be an option too. Most likely Jax or Varland, though).

Are we in the position of selling? I don't really know. (I'm less eager than some to simply throw the season away, because baseball is still the "a chip, a chair, and a chance" sport) Are the Jays the right team to deal with? I really don't know.

I'd be more interested in exploring some of this if the team had already been sold, or I was certain they'd be sold by the time the off-season starts. I simply don't want the Pohlads having any decision-making power right now, even if they generally leave the baseball moves to the front office.

[jorgenswest]

Rankings are not very helpful. They need context. A winter ranking of 50 or 57 across baseball is much different than a June ranking. It is the same for team rankings. Players graduate and the new class of draftees hasn’t arrived yet. It also needs the context of team. The Blue Jays system isn’t very strong.

Isn’t it better to use future value?

Nimmala has a FV of 50 by fangraphs. An average regular. He has gone from #87 to #50 in the MLB pipeline and that looks like he improved until you consider the graduates. You also have players hit the higher levels of the minors and struggle. How many Twins have we seen with a 50 in A ball that never became a significant major leaguer?

Yesavage has a future value of number 4-5 starter. He just moved to AA and is encountering that struggle. How different is he than Marco Raya who has had essentially the same future value as he climbed the ladder?

The Twins are offering three playoff seasons of a top reliever. If the Twins make the playoffs in any of those years  Duran significantly improves their chance for success. These two wouldn’t in the next few years.

So to answer the question “Could the Jays overpay?” I think the answer is no. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

I will say with any player the level of Jax, Duran, Ryan,  is doing the math you could get a comp pick you could get for them if they play through while the Twins retain control.  That part of the equation has increased the value for smaller to mid market teams retaining players and/or increasing the trade value equation.  

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

5 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Duran is the right kind of guy to move if you can get a team to make an overpay because of the inflated value teams place on the title of "closer". He's awesome, and I don't want him to leave, but he's starting to get more expensive (you have to figure he's looking at an arbitration figure of at least $8M next season, so even a multi-year, team-friendly-ish deal would be looking at at 2/$20M or 3/$35M). And we do have options in-house to fill that role (Jax, Varland, or Stewart could all get there, and Sands is someone that might be an option too. Most likely Jax or Varland, though).

Are we in the position of selling? I don't really know. (I'm less eager than some to simply throw the season away, because baseball is still the "a chip, a chair, and a chance" sport) Are the Jays the right team to deal with? I really don't know.

I'd be more interested in exploring some of this if the team had already been sold, or I was certain they'd be sold by the time the off-season starts. I simply don't want the Pohlads having any decision-making power right now, even if they generally leave the baseball moves to the front office.

Health wise,  this team has been crushed.  No offense I am actually impressed they have been playing .500 ball here recently.  That is pretty impressive down Ober, Matthews, Lopez on the pitching side.  Keaschall should be coming back soon as well.  Offensively we could see the team get on a roll and the starting pitching really starting to solidify itself soon.  I don't think we have or should be in a selling position.  I would rather go for it,  maybe even be slight buyers.  or buyers and sellers if it makes sense.   This is not a team I would just give up on.  The have the talent and players that they could make noise in the post season.  

[Road trip]

14 minutes ago, Patzky said:

Dodgertown

 

There's certainly history there of this FO dealing with the Dodgers.  The Graterol for Maeda trade worked out fairly well for both sides.  I would rather not talk about the Margot trade however...

[Patzky]

2 minutes ago, Road trip said:

There's certainly history there of this FO dealing with the Dodgers.  The Graterol for Maeda trade worked out fairly well for both sides.  I would rather not talk about the Margot trade however...

I hear Manny is available..

[NYCTK]

28 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Health wise,  this team has been crushed. 

What? No, they haven't.

The Twins the last two seasons have been a pretty darn healthy team compared to the rest of the league. I encourage you to look at the injuries for any other team at random. 

I wish fans would quit complaining about injuries like this. It's only second to fans excusing poor attendance by saying Minnesotans are unique and like to go to the lake house on the weekend. 

[Otaknam]

Trading Duran for a package that includes Tiedemann, who is coming off of TJ surgery, would be management malfeasance. Yesavage would be a nice piece, however, along with another top prospect. The Twins need more starting pitching, and Yesavage fits the bill. I do think Duran will be traded somewhere if the team keeps sputtering. 

[Doctor Gast]

You always find teams that need our players but that is only half of the game. If we trade someone like Duran it have to be special & I'd also like teams that have players that we need. IMO, TOR doesn't have anyone we really need. 

[Fatbat]

Considering all the upside tradeable parts that the twins have on their 40 man, one would think that we could be 15 games over .500 by now…..

[miller761]

Prospects are just that. Trading Duran with 2 more years of control would signal we don't think we can win in 2026. We need to trade just the replacable pieces...Castro, Paddock, Vazquez, Bader.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

You can't say Irish won't stick at catcher.  The Twins have actually taken some decent bat 1st players and tried to make them into catchers.  It appears they are doing more work with Gasper,  they are doing it with Ferrer. Ryan Jeffers is the prime example.   Irish is more likely to be gone by the Twins pick and we will see which direction they go.  Go look back at Ryan Jeffers and tell me what is that much different. 

"Jeffers was not listed in MLB.com’s top-200 draft-eligible prospects list, and was No. 295 on the list compiled by Baseball America.

The guys at BA remarked about his consistent numbers, but aren’t sure about his ability to stick behind the plate due to an average arm back there. He’s not much of a runner and there’s a question of how his bat will transfer over to using wood full-time."

Jeffers got his foundation from Tanner Swanson who has been long gone from the Twins coaching staff, I haven't heard or seen anything good coming from Conger & Co. They thought they could do something with Carmargo & Cartaya, How has that turned out? Just throwing Gasper behind the plate & hope something miraculous happens won't do it.

IMO, Irish arm & a slow runner are the least of his problems, you also need to move around well behind the plate, soft hands & the ability to handle pitchers which he hasn't proved to me yet. Their is a chance that Tanner Swanson could do something with him but again he's not here & are there many coaches out there that are capable & willing to put in the work? yet the biggest question is, is he willing to put in the work? He might just want to forget about catching & focus on hitting while playing the OF. I think he's listed as a catcher mainly to help out his ranking.

[Mike Sixel]

Not really thrilled with the Jays prospects. Give me Mets or Phillies......

[Fatbat]

4 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Not really thrilled with the Jays prospects. Give me Mets or Phillies......

Or a few home grown ones next year. L Leaschall, K Culpepper, KDebarge. Trade C4 and let the kids play! 

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Fatbat said:

Or a few home grown ones next year. L Leaschall, K Culpepper, KDebarge. Trade C4 and let the kids play! 

CC isn't going anywhere. Sure, I like Keaschell and Culpepper, but if we are trading guys, not into the TOR players was my point. 

[Fatbat]

Yeah, I don’t care where they come from. Get a solid young core that will be around for a decade, winning games…. Especially in October. 

[Blyleven2011]

I don't think Duran would or should be the FO first choice to trade , but if the right return ( and i mean the right return , players we need , not to trade just to trade ) then you have to listen ...

If the FO was thinking of trading a power arm I would think it would be Jax  , he's older with still club control , cheaper because he doesn't have that label of closer pinned on him , but there are clubs that would trade for him for that role or maybe a starter ( i dont think that would be wise ) , does Jax bring back the same kind of value Duran would ? ...

I like Jax and I'm sure there are alot of teams that also do  , pitching , starting and power arms are what serious contenders are looking for  , jax because of his age would make the most sense to trade , Stewart too ...

[DocBauer]

My short term answer is no to an overpay...but I'd always listen...and a general no to trading him.

The truth is a lot of relievers have short life spans where they are really good. Some slip and rebound, but other than truly great ones, many have a 3-5yr shelf life. And that's just general, not an absolute.

I would never trade BOTH Jax and Duran as it would be foolish to just break this team down completely. But as good as Jax has been, and still is, I'd move him...still with some control...and keep Duran.

Duran doesn't hit 104 on occasion? So what? He's still to 101 pretty consistently and has hit 102 once in a while. What kind of weird fantasy world do we live in where notting sitting 99-101 is poor? He's got a great curve, a great splinker, and has added a 4th pitch this season. He's still producing at a level that has people questioning why he wasn't considered an All Star. (Different story, different arguement, different day). 

If Jax was moved, we probably get a solid return. It could be a young bat close to being ready, or another power arm close enough to figure them in to the 2026 plans for the pen. Varland and Stewart can cover the loss. Sands might never approach how good he was in 2024, but he's not exactly a poor arm with future potential. Between trade, FA, and arms in the system that might move to the pen...at least temporarily thinking old school get your feet wet there first...the pen might be OK without Jax.

I absolutely understand everything could be reasons to keep Jax as the closer for 2026 and move Duran for a big haul. Again, you ALWAYS listen. But I'd move the 30yo Jax for a solid return instead of the 27yo Duran.