Could the Blue Jays Overpay for Jhoan Duran at the Trade Deadline?

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, miller761 said:

Prospects are just that. Trading Duran with 2 more years of control would signal we don't think we can win in 2026. We need to trade just the replacable pieces...Castro, Paddock, Vazquez, Bader.

Many, myself included, don't think they can win 90+ in 2026 and are completely over this strategy of shooting for 84 wins and hoping it's good enough to lose in the first round of the playoffs. 

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Not really thrilled with the Jays prospects. Give me Mets or Phillies......

Stearns doesn't seem like he's the type that will have the Mets overpaying for RP, or pitching period. I can see him offering a boatload for Buxton though. 

[KirbyDome89]

5 hours ago, Patzky said:

You'll support a move like this if you recognize that our window is a couple years away. You'll look for an alternative move that might yield a little less (Jax? Varland and Coulombe?) if you're trying to improve to compete now. You'll say no thanks if you think we are good enough to win in 2025-6.

Detroit's window is now but without $kubal and an aging Baez it could be short . . Cleveland won't spend and the Sox are three to five years away. 

I love the guy but we already have a couple usable closers if we don't need to win in 2025. Get bats. Or talk to LA and get position strength.

Baez was considered a non factor by Detroit heading into this season. They definitely weren't relying on him having the season he has thus far. They're a younger team than MN, and most of those young players are controlled for multiple years, with some still 2+ seasons away from arbitration.

The Twins shouldn't be making any decisions based on what Detroit is or isn't. 

[Patzky]

7 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Baez was considered a non factor by Detroit heading into this season. They definitely weren't relying on him having the season he has thus far. They're a younger team than MN, and most of those young players are controlled for multiple years, with some still 2+ seasons away from arbitration.

The Twins shouldn't be making any decisions based on what Detroit is or isn't. 

They absolutely need to consider a window of competitiveness, as they aren't made of money. 

[Major League Ready]

50 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Many, myself included, don't think they can win 90+ in 2026 and are completely over this strategy of shooting for 84 wins and hoping it's good enough to lose in the first round of the playoffs. 

Agree .... Something has to change.  They don't have the horses.  Will some combination Keaschall, E. Rodriquez, Culpepper, Debarge, GG, Sabato, etc elevate us to a 90+ win team?  It's quite possible but I think they need to do something more.  Free agency is not a feasible answer.  They already spent the money on Correa and Lopez.   Plus, they have a lot of arbitration eligible players.

I see Duran as a reasonable solution based on what Tanner Scott brought back in trade last year.  What will someone pay for 2 1/2 years of Duran?   If it's the kind of haul that changes the course of a team it MIGHT just be worth it. 

[CRF]

No one on this team is, or should be, untouchable. Everyone should be on the table for potential trades. However, I wouldn't expect this F.O. to do much of anything. Unless they somehow decide to blow this team up and go into major sell mode, they won't do squat. 

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Agree .... Something has to change.  They don't have the horses.  Will some combination Keaschall, E. Rodriquez, Culpepper, Debarge, GG, Sabato, etc elevate us to a 90+ win team?  It's quite possible but I think they need to do something more.  Free agency is not a feasible answer.  They already spent the money on Correa and Lopez.   Plus, they have a lot of arbitration eligible players.

I see Duran as a reasonable solution based on what Tanner Scott brought back in trade last year.  What will someone pay for 2 1/2 years of Duran?   If it's the kind of haul that changes the course of a team it MIGHT just be worth it. 

Here's the conundrum as I see it. 

3B and SS are set, like it or not (until Lewis is hurt, but then you are playing a backup, you aren't bringing in a starter while you have Lewis and CC). 2b is Keaschell, Culpepper, or Lee. C is Jeffers and there isn't one out there you can bring in and hit most likely. CF is Buxton.

that leaves LF, RF, 1B. Now, their top prospects are Jenkins, EmRod, and GG in the OF. And they have Wallner and Larnach. Plus Martin, Eeelse and Keaschell as backups. 

What do you trade FOR? Because they 100% need more pre-arb players (EmRod and Jenkins and Culpepper and Lee). It's hard to see trading for an OF at this point. Or 2B. 

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, Patzky said:

They absolutely need to consider a window of competitiveness, as they aren't made of money. 

Buying, selling, standing pat, it doesn't matter what this FO chooses to do, my point is that whichever direction they chose to go, external factors, i.e. what they perceive a team like Detroit to be now and into the future, shouldn't be part of the equation. 

[LyleCole]

I just don't see the trade value there, especially since Duran is still under team control.   That is valuable to a team like Minnesota.

I sort of have this view that if you trade a pitcher for prospects, the main centerpiece should be a pitching prospect coming back.  The reason is pretty straightforward:  if you trade a pitcher for a short stop prospect, and the prospect fails, you are missing out on two positions.  

 

Arjun Nimmala seems to have a lot of pop in his bat, but even with all of that he is only a .740 OPS guy in A+ ball and was a .790 OPS guy in A in 2024.  Lots and lots of strikeouts.  His career batting average in the minors is .234 and OBP .334.   Just seems like a lot of issues here that will take a long time to develop.

Maybe if the "overpay" is Nimmala and Yesavage, something I doubt the Jays would do, you could consider it.  But that would just barely move the needle for me.

Last thing, if you look at the system, and made that deal, who would be the future closer for this team if they ever became competitive?  

[Twins33]

The only reliever I’ve ever been attached to was Nathan so I’m pretty much always okay with getting a haul for relievers. That being said, based on this list I definitely wouldn’t do a trade for any of these players. Yesavage was the only name I paused on but his BB% is too high for me. Based only on his stats it seems like he may have great stuff but poor control. Those types of players seem to fail 99% of the time. 
 

I think it may be too soon to trade Duran, but either way, if they do…I hope it’s not to the Jays

[Sjoski]

Some of the best trades are the ones you don't make.

"Twins could walk away with a franchise-altering haul."

OR:

They blow it and are set back another 3 to 5 years.

 Based on Falveys track record,  I hope they keep Duran. 

 

[tony&rodney]

15 hours ago, DocBauer said:

My short term answer is no to an overpay...but I'd always listen...and a general no to trading him.

The truth is a lot of relievers have short life spans where they are really good. Some slip and rebound, but other than truly great ones, many have a 3-5yr shelf life. And that's just general, not an absolute.

I would never trade BOTH Jax and Duran as it would be foolish to just break this team down completely. But as good as Jax has been, and still is, I'd move him...still with some control...and keep Duran.

Duran doesn't hit 104 on occasion? So what? He's still to 101 pretty consistently and has hit 102 once in a while. What kind of weird fantasy world do we live in where notting sitting 99-101 is poor? He's got a great curve, a great splinker, and has added a 4th pitch this season. He's still producing at a level that has people questioning why he wasn't considered an All Star. (Different story, different arguement, different day). 

If Jax was moved, we probably get a solid return. It could be a young bat close to being ready, or another power arm close enough to figure them in to the 2026 plans for the pen. Varland and Stewart can cover the loss. Sands might never approach how good he was in 2024, but he's not exactly a poor arm with future potential. Between trade, FA, and arms in the system that might move to the pen...at least temporarily thinking old school get your feet wet there first...the pen might be OK without Jax.

I absolutely understand everything could be reasons to keep Jax as the closer for 2026 and move Duran for a big haul. Again, you ALWAYS listen. But I'd move the 30yo Jax for a solid return instead of the 27yo Duran.

Agree totally and I don't think it is a very difficult call at all. Jax is really good but there is a reason the Twins use Duran as their closer.

[TopGunn#22]

This team just isn't good enough to be buyers and the mediocrity we've been blessed with the last 5 years tells me the leadership isn't the answer either.  New Owners, New FO, New Manager and coaching staff, and, some new talent on the field after some deadline deals.

I'm all for trading Duran.  His value has never been higher.  He's going to be very expensive starting next season, and we have Jax and Varland who are closer material.  

The premise of this article is a trade with the Blue Jays.  I respect the thought that went into the article, but in the final analysis, the Blue Jays can't compete with the Dodgers, Red Sox or Phillies.

The Red Sox have Aroldis Chapman and probably need SP more.  But they could be interested in building their own "Super Bullpen" for 2025 and they probably won't have Chapman in 2026.  The Dodgers have all sorts of closer types in their BP but injuries and ineffective pitching have left them with no clear "Stud" to close games.  The Phillies are also lacking that "Stud" to close and Jose Alvarado is ineligible to pitch in the post season. 

There is no way even the Twins FO should screw up a massive bidding war for an arm like Duran at the deadline.  My money is on the Dodgers, but Boston and the Phillies could make it interesting.  It's pretty obvious that the Red Sox think their biggest trade chip is outfielder Jarren Duran.  An All Star last year, his play has dipped a bit, his OPS this year is .745.  It was .834 in 2024 and .828 in 2023.  He can take over LF after Bader is traded and be the primary backup to Buxton in CF.  He's very athletic and a great defender.  The Red Sox OF is overflowing with talent.  They need to trade someone.  I'd make Duran a target. 

And I'd be aggressive in getting Jarren Duran.  It opens up the ability to trade Bader and even Larnach or Wallner if the FO was open to it.  Making trades has a domino effect on a roster.  ONE trade usually fixes something, but a series of trades with a purpose and plan in mind should always be the strategy.  

[Patzky]

20 hours ago, Patzky said:

Dodgertown

 

Dodgertown is getting desperate. Deals could be had but treasures could be lost 

[Patzky]

25 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

This team just isn't good enough to be buyers and the mediocrity we've been blessed with the last 5 years tells me the leadership isn't the answer either.  New Owners, New FO, New Manager and coaching staff, and, some new talent on the field after some deadline deals.

I'm all for trading Duran.  His value has never been higher.  He's going to be very expensive starting next season, and we have Jax and Varland who are closer material.  

The premise of this article is a trade with the Blue Jays.  I respect the thought that went into the article, but in the final analysis, the Blue Jays can't compete with the Dodgers, Red Sox or Phillies.

The Red Sox have Aroldis Chapman and probably need SP more.  But they could be interested in building their own "Super Bullpen" for 2025 and they probably won't have Chapman in 2026.  The Dodgers have all sorts of closer types in their BP but injuries and ineffective pitching have left them with no clear "Stud" to close games.  The Phillies are also lacking that "Stud" to close and Jose Alvarado is ineligible to pitch in the post season. 

There is no way even the Twins FO should screw up a massive bidding war for an arm like Duran at the deadline.  My money is on the Dodgers, but Boston and the Phillies could make it interesting.  It's pretty obvious that the Red Sox think their biggest trade chip is outfielder Jarren Duran.  An All Star last year, his play has dipped a bit, his OPS this year is .745.  It was .834 in 2024 and .828 in 2023.  He can take over LF after Bader is traded and be the primary backup to Buxton in CF.  He's very athletic and a great defender.  The Red Sox OF is overflowing with talent.  They need to trade someone.  I'd make Duran a target. 

And I'd be aggressive in getting Jarren Duran.  It opens up the ability to trade Bader and even Larnach or Wallner if the FO was open to it.  Making trades has a domino effect on a roster.  ONE trade usually fixes something, but a series of trades with a purpose and plan in mind should always be the strategy.  

Dodgertown is getting desperate at just the right time. Seven game losing streak and a few days off to stew in it.. not what they're used to.

[TopGunn#22]

Excellent point Patzky.  Of course Dalton Rushing would be a key target.  But an arm like Bobby Miller, who has struggled with health issues and just some bad pitching, but who still has a 98 mph fastball is the kind of "throw in" talent the Twins should be looking at.  You could always include Castro in a deal with Duran to maximize your return. 

There is talent to be had from the Dodgers, especially as this current losing streak advances.  I think the Dodgers are a bit panicky, and I think pushing their buttons SOONER rather than waiting for the deadline is a good strategy and would also set the Twins up for what they might be looking at for more expected deals involving Bader, Paddack and Coulombe.  

[LambchoP]

Most of these guys don't look to appealing. They should only do this if they can get a SP who is near major league ready with plenty of upside. A SP and another position prospect in the 10-20 range. That, or a near ready, controllable catcher who can hit. We are weak at catcher and with our AAA SP struggles this year, we need more starters close to the show.

[Jeff K]

12 hours ago, LyleCole said:

I just don't see the trade value there, especially since Duran is still under team control.   That is valuable to a team like Minnesota.

I sort of have this view that if you trade a pitcher for prospects, the main centerpiece should be a pitching prospect coming back.  The reason is pretty straightforward:  if you trade a pitcher for a short stop prospect, and the prospect fails, you are missing out on two positions.  

 

Arjun Nimmala seems to have a lot of pop in his bat, but even with all of that he is only a .740 OPS guy in A+ ball and was a .790 OPS guy in A in 2024.  Lots and lots of strikeouts.  His career batting average in the minors is .234 and OBP .334.   Just seems like a lot of issues here that will take a long time to develop.

Maybe if the "overpay" is Nimmala and Yesavage, something I doubt the Jays would do, you could consider it.  But that would just barely move the needle for me.

Last thing, if you look at the system, and made that deal, who would be the future closer for this team if they ever became competitive?  

I agree.  While I think that Twins should be willing to trade Duran, none of the players mentioned, by themselves, are enough.  They should be looking at the guys who are going to be Free Agents.  Castro ought to bring a back-up catcher and I'd do that.  I don't think Castro is playing very well.  His fielding has seemingly (to the naked eye) regressed and he makes dumb plays.  

[Patzky]

25 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Excellent point Patzky.  Of course Dalton Rushing would be a key target.  But an arm like Bobby Miller, who has struggled with health issues and just some bad pitching, but who still has a 98 mph fastball is the kind of "throw in" talent the Twins should be looking at.  You could always include Castro in a deal with Duran to maximize your return. 

There is talent to be had from the Dodgers, especially as this current losing streak advances.  I think the Dodgers are a bit panicky, and I think pushing their buttons SOONER rather than waiting for the deadline is a good strategy and would also set the Twins up for what they might be looking at for more expected deals involving Bader, Paddack and Coulombe.  

Note.. Bader is sitting again today. Seems odd .

[Larry Janisewski]

21 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Not really thrilled with the Jays prospects. Give me Mets or Phillies......

Or the Dodgers

[Lefty61]

 

With Red Sox win streak putting them in Buy mode, Chapman will no longer be available so Duran trade value jumps further, certainly there's a contender that will overpay in thin market.