Twins Release Matt Canterino. What’s Next for the Once-Promising Prospect?

[Cody Christie]

Baseball can be a cruel game. Matt Canterino’s recent release marks the end of one chapter and the beginning of another.

Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins officially released right-handed pitcher Matt Canterino on Apr. 22, 2025, following his designation for assignment after undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery in mid-March of Spring Training. 

Because injured players cannot be placed on outright waivers, Minnesota had to either trade or release Canterino after the DFA. The Twins opted to cut him loose, with a trade deemed unlikely based on the uncertainty of Canterino's prognosis. Canterino will become a free agent, with the right to sign anywhere. However, if both sides are amenable, Minnesota could circle back with a two-year minor-league offer. He was out of minor-league options, and injuries caused him to fall out of the team’s long-term plans. 

Once one of the organization’s most highly regarded arms, the Rice University product once had a mid-90s fastball and a plus slider, but a litany of injuries has cost him nearly every season of his pro career. Now, at age 27 (turning 28) this December, he embarks on free agency, looking to reestablish his health and promise.

Midway through spring training, Canterino underwent surgery to “tighten” ligaments in his right throwing shoulder, effectively ending his 2025 campaign before it began. The Twins announced the procedure on March 16th, revealing that the rotator cuff strain from camp required a formal surgical repair. This was following earlier Tommy John surgery, which sidelined him for all of 2023. 

A Once-Promising Arm
A second-round pick (54th overall) by Minnesota in the 2019 MLB Draft, Canterino was lauded for his power arsenal and pitchability. He dazzled in college, with a fastball that sat in the mid-90s and a tight, wipeout slider. Scouts projected this arsenal would allow him to become a mid-rotation starter or high-leverage bullpen arm at the major-league level.

Between 2020 and 2024, Canterino consistently appeared in the top half of Baseball America’s Twins top-30 prospect rankings, peeking inside the top 15 midseason list before being shelved by injuries. Even after going unranked in the 2024 midseason update due to inactivity, evaluators still recognized his upside, lamenting that he’d only thrown 85 (dominant) innings since being drafted.

There Is No Such Thing As a Pitching Prospect (TINSTAAPP)
Right elbow inflammation derailed Canterino’s professional path early in 2021, culminating in Tommy John surgery in August 2022, after a dominant Double-A stint. He missed the remainder of 2022 and all of 2023 recuperating from the procedure.

In 2024, just as hopes rose for his return, Canterino suffered a right rotator cuff strain during spring training, prompting another IL stay that kept him out for the entire season.

Despite the interruptions, Canterino’s flashes were remarkable. Across 85 career minor-league innings, he posted a sparkling 1.48 ERA with a 39.1% strikeout rate, illustrating his ability to miss bats and generate weak contact when healthy. He pitched exclusively as a starter early on, then began to be evaluated as a potential bullpen weapon. His repertoire lends itself to shorter bursts of high-impact potential. Now, the Twins are left wondering what could have been.

What’s Next: Free Agency and Options
When Canterino clears waivers, he immediately becomes a free agent, free to field offers from any organization. For the Twins, there’s precedent for bringing back released pitchers on minor-league deals, and they could offer a two-year contract designed to let him fully rehab under club supervision.

Health remains the paramount question. If he recovers well from this latest setback, there might be time for one more team to take a shot at him and bet on his raw stuff. Come the 2026 season, a healthy, effective Canterino could be a difference-maker for a big-league staff looking for affordable, controllable pitching.

Canterino’s release marks the end of one chapter, where unrelenting injuries hampered a storied prospect career. However, one ending is another beginning in which he controls his path. It's possible he'll elect to move on to the next chapter, beyond his playing career, but should he attempt yet another comeback, the task is straightforward: stay healthy, showcase that high-leverage arsenal, and reignite the potential that once made him one of Minnesota’s brightest pitching prospects.

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Should the Twins try to re-sign Canterino to a two-year minor league deal? Will he make it to the big leagues with another organization? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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[Karbo]

I wouldn't draft a pitcher out of Rice. They seem to have so many promising pitchers that have had arm problems. I don't know why.

[Parfigliano]

Sad to say but at that age I don't see pro ball in his future.

[#3Killer]

Offer a minor league contract- try keep him. Maybe he can be a good bullpen arm. Who knows how guys can rehab and have strong careers. 

[South Dakota Tom]

I would love to see him sign a two-year minor league deal with us - his potential, while sidetracked, is still high in my eyes.  Assuming, of course, that he's up for another year of rehab and still wants to do this.

[Cory Engelhardt]

52 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I wouldn't draft a pitcher out of Rice. They seem to have so many promising pitchers that have had arm problems. I don't know why.

Justin Verlander would like a word

[Road trip]

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

I wouldn't draft a pitcher out of Rice. They seem to have so many promising pitchers that have had arm problems. I don't know why.

This certainly was the case when Wayne Graham was coaching there.  They were (in)famous for using their best pitchers a lot of innings and running up high pitch counts, even on short rest.  They had many great teams under Graham, but yes, he was accused of burning through young arms.  

Of all the Rice pitching prospects from Graham's almost three decade reign the most successful MLB pitcher was possibly.... Tyler Duffey.  A decent career, but not a star.

Graham retired in 2018 after Canterino's Jr year.  Rice baseball hasn't been back to the CWS since.  They are now on their 3rd manager since Graham, so maybe the old ways have changed...?  

[Seansy]

There is no downside for the Twins to sign him to a 2 year minor league deal. 

At this point, it is up to Matt to decide on his destination for FA, but I hope the Twins make the offer because he would deserve it given his efforts thus far to come back from injury.

[Twins GFP]

Assuming he gets healthy and he wants to continue pitching, he will get an opportunity somewhere. Too much talent for every team to ignore.

[bean5302]

Everybody seems pretty bullish on Canterino. He's never pitched above AA, and he owned a 4.74 xFIP there because he was walking 15% of batters (6 BB/9), and he faced and had a 60% fly ball rate. That was 3 years ago.

Since then, he's had UCL surgery and now a labrum surgery. UCL recovery rates are good. Labrum surgery recovery rates are much less successful.

There isn't a guarantee Canterino returns to whatever form he had before the shoulder surgery, which may have been diminished from what he was 3 years ago before the TJ. Provided he has no setbacks, Canterino will not be ready to pitch from a mound again until May-ish of 2026. He won't be ready to join competitive pitching until the second half of next year. Canterino will be 28-1/2 years old at that point.

In my opinion, releasing him is a logical decision even if it doesn't feel good. I could see the Twins signing Canterino to a MiLB contract mid next season if he's throwing well at that point.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Justin Verlander would like a word

Verlander attended Old Dominion University.

There are incidents or times when a pitcher is overused but throwing a baseball causes more harm to some people than others. 

[Doctor Gast]

SP role should have been abandoned earlier. IMO, Canterino still could have a prosperous BP career.

Prep SPs draft prospects were taboo in the past, but in my opinion, they have figured it out. Prep SP draft prospects are more controllable as far as development.

[Karbo]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Justin Verlander would like a word

What year was he drafted?

[big dog]

Reminds me of Nick Burdi, along with some others. I wish him luck, whatever he decides. 

[jmlease1]

I'd offer him the minor league deal. The talent is there and the price wouldn't be that high. But you have to treat him like a lottery ticket at this point.

A real shame. He's certainly the poster child for treating your starting pitching prospects with kid gloves, limiting their innings, watching their pitch counts carefully, being careful about pushing someone after a high stress inning, etc.

Had high hopes for him, but his bum wing let him down. I do think how they handled him at Rice had something to do with this, and they should be ashamed of themselves.

[Trov]

4 hours ago, Karbo said:

I wouldn't draft a pitcher out of Rice. They seem to have so many promising pitchers that have had arm problems. I don't know why.

The manager burns them out in college.  That is what happens.  He averaged 27 batters a game.  With the fact that he struck out or walked or struck out 35% of them an average of say 5 pitches is pretty reasonable.  That works out to 135 average pitches per start. There is a reason most teams are trying to keep pitchers under 100, and not just because 3rd trip through order.  Rice clearly does not believe pitch counts will affect the arms, or they do not care. 

[Parfigliano]

4 minutes ago, Trov said:

The manager burns them out in college.  That is what happens.  He averaged 27 batters a game.  With the fact that he struck out or walked or struck out 35% of them an average of say 5 pitches is pretty reasonable.  That works out to 135 average pitches per start. There is a reason most teams are trying to keep pitchers under 100, and not just because 3rd trip through order.  Rice clearly does not believe pitch counts will affect the arms, or they do not care. 

Maybe his best prospect for a big payday isn't in MLB.  Maybe it's in a courtroom.  File suit against Rice and the then manager and pitching coaches.

[Twins GFP]

3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Verlander attended Old Dominion University.

There are incidents or times when a pitcher is overused but throwing a baseball causes more harm to some people than others. 

It is less of a college issue nowadays and more of a HS issue. Southern kids pitch almost year round (as the weather allows) where northern kids are more limited. Camps and showcases can be killers 

[mikelink45]

If I was him I would sign with someone else, just to see if my luck changed.  The orioles need RP 

[minman1982]

4 hours ago, Seansy said:

There is no downside for the Twins to sign him to a 2 year minor league deal. 

At this point, it is up to Matt to decide on his destination for FA, but I hope the Twins make the offer because he would deserve it given his efforts thus far to come back from injury.

My thoughts too. If he is amenable to coming back with the Twins on a minor league deal, that is a fairly low risk proposition for the Twins. I would totally understand if he wants to test his luck somewhere else or have a change of scenery. 

[weitz41]

hmm seems like rehab is the answer to the title. After that who knows. I'd like the Twins to sign him to a two-year minor league deal. Just to see if he can actually get healthy and pitch MAYBE 50 innings in a single season. If not, well the baseball gods have spoken and move on. IF by chance he has a few healthy seasons after that, can we PLEASE not have a what if article about it..nvm that will never happen on this site...

[Cody Christie]

 

[jmlease1]

15 minutes ago, Cody Christie said:

 

I think that's good. nice from the Twins not to cut bait on a guy to save a little cash, and good that Canterino thinks well enough of the organization to stick here even though it hasn't gone well. I'm guessing they talked to him about it well in advance of outrighting him off the roster.

[HerbieFan]

i don't know who the coaches at Rice are/were, but they killed a lot of mlb dreams.

[Jocko87]

3 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

I think that's good. nice from the Twins not to cut bait on a guy to save a little cash, and good that Canterino thinks well enough of the organization to stick here even though it hasn't gone well. I'm guessing they talked to him about it well in advance of outrighting him off the roster.

I'm thinking they would have started this conversation shortly after the injury.  Once they knew it was another major rehab everyone knew he had to come off the 40 man somehow.  If I'm Matt, I'm probably sticking with the org that knows me for my one last chance.  The Twins having pretty good track record with arm health doesn't hurt.

[Joe A. Preusser]

Interesting thread.  I played little league with a guy who could pitch really, REALLY well.  He went to a D2 school and they threw his arm off.  He bought in, team first, etc.  Could he have been more?  His dad was a minor league reliever, he had the genes and coaching from an early age.  Just a minor blip in the baseball world,  but since it's close to me I wonder what might have been for him.  

[DocBauer]

Considering how the Twins have continued to protect him on the roster and his familiarity with the organization, why wouldn't they sign him to a 2yr MILB deal and why wouldn't he accept?

Of course, it's also possible he just decides enough is enough and hangs it up and moves on with his life.

He reminds me of Stewart, a top prospect in the Dodgers system who endured injury after injury, but continued to rehab and follow his dream. While Stewart has continued to have some injury issues, he's also been DAMN GOOD since his late 20's, now 30. Canterino MIGHT do the same after this latest procedure. He just might fulfill his dream on a similar path. I'd love to see him pursue that dream with the Twins. IF he still wants to.

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

12 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Verlander attended Old Dominion University.

There are incidents or times when a pitcher is overused but throwing a baseball causes more harm to some people than others. 

You are right. I was wrong. Thanks!

[jorgenswest]

Twins signed him to a two year minor league deal. I hope that he gets that shot at being healthy in 2026.

[twinfan]

It won't hurt to give him one more shot. It will be interesting to see if he can fully recover but his history is not good.