Updating Minnesota Twins Spring Training Roster Battles

[Matthew Lenz]

The Minnesota Twins are roughly a third of the way through their Grapefruit League season, which means it’s time to check in on the unresolved position battles. Who’s been manning the keystone? Is there a favorite for the fifth rotation spot? How is the bullpen shaping up? Is Rocco Baldelli dropping any hints?

Image courtesy of © Chris Tilley-Imagn Images

Before the start of spring training, I previewed three positional battles: second base, the rotation anchor, and the final two bullpen spots. Eight games into their spring training season and after weeks' worth of interviews, we are starting to get an idea of how these battles are unfolding.

Second Base
This battle is between Willi Castro, Brooks Lee, Mickey Gasper and Edouard Julien. From a pure playing time perspective, Gasper leads the way with four games played at second, followed by Lee (3), Castro (2), and Julien (1). A few non-roster invitees have gotten into the mix, but none of them really have a shot at making the Opening Day roster. Keeping small samples in mind (and that we don’t put a lot of stock in spring training stats), Gasper is making the most of his opportunity, leading the way with a .665 OPS. In fairness, though, that's just a single point ahead of Julien among the four in this battle. Lee and Castro have struggled mightily, carrying sub-.500 OPSes, but it’s interesting to note that each player’s walk-to-strikeout ratio is at least 1.00. This is something to keep a close eye on for Lee, as Baldelli shared with reporters in a scrum following their spring training opener on Feb. 22 in Fort Myers, Fla.:

“Having quality at-bats and controlling the zone is going to be really important for [Lee], something that challenged him during the season last year and something that is part of his focus going into this year,” Baldelli said.

A week earlier, Lee had this to say regarding his offseason work related to swing mechanics:

“When you have good mechanics, and your swing is quick, you don't have any wasted movements, then you get to make a decision later. While the ball's coming to the plate, you can make a decision late. So that's what I think is a big difference on how I see the pitch and then my swing decisions.”

Many questions remain unanswered here, but as Baldelli intimated at the start of camp, this might be a spot where they simply don't arrive at any one full-time answer—not this month, and perhaps not throughout the season. As was true in 2024, the keystone looks like it will be a merry-go-round of sorts, with Castro likely leading the way. Gasper wasn’t really in the picture (at least mine) a few weeks ago, but he’s making at least a modest case to make the roster, which could have implications for Lee and Julien.

5th Rotation Spot
This battle is between Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, and Zebby Matthews. It was my opinion that Woods Richardson had the edge, purely based on a 2024 performance that saw him carry a sub-4.00 ERA into the final month of the season before he ran out of gas. Funnily enough, Matthews and Festa are the top two in innings pitched (although with 5 and 4 ⅓, respectively), followed by Woods Richardson, who has 4. It’s clear these three will each get an opportunity to crack the Opening Day roster, and from a statistical perspective, Matthews is leading the way with a 7:0 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 0.88 FIP. Festa isn’t far behind analytically, but on the surface, he was knocked around quite a bit in his second outing, allowing six baserunners and four earned runs. As we saw in his rookie campaign, Woods Richardson doesn’t have the bat-missing ability of the other two, and is currently carrying a 6.93 FIP.

There is very little to read into when it comes to hints from the Twins’ skipper, because he’s had nothing but positive things to say about each of the three players in this battle. One potential takeaway is that he has spoken the most about Matthews (which may be more about the questions being asked), and had this to say after his first outing on Feb. 22:

“Yeah, Zebby looked good…his stuff was probably even up a little bit from where we saw it last year in the big leagues.”

That was before his second outing, which was even better: he struck out five of 10 batters faced over three innings. While I think Woods Richardson started with the edge, it’s hard to ignore how Matthews has looked. He might be my favorite to round out the rotation, as it sits today.

Bullpen
This might be the one battle we are getting a clearer picture on. Louis Varland has made four one-inning appearances (in three of which he threw 11 or fewer pitches), and it seems all but guaranteed that he will be in the Twins bullpen on Opening Day. Justin Topa, who was also on the roster bubble, is now dealing with right shoulder tightness, and I already had him pegged to start the year in St. Paul. That leaves Michael Tonkin, Eiberson Castellano, and Jorge Alcalá for the last two spots. Check out my thoughts from earlier this week for a deeper dive on this battle, but here’s the TL;DR version: the Twins should prioritize keeping arms in the organization over putting together the most formidable bullpen on Opening Day. Send Alcalá and Topa to St. Paul, which means they’re carrying Tonkin and Castellano at the bottom of the bullpen.

We know how the Twins work. We’re only going to learn about the “winners” of these battles when roster decisions are formally made. They always hold their cards close, and there’s no reason to think that will change now. That said, spring training performances carry some weight, and we can try to read the tea leaves in interviews to get an idea of where things might be headed.

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We’re three weeks out from Opening Day…who do you think wins these battles? What does your Opening Day roster look like? Drop your ideas in the comments and join the conversation!

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[Fire Dan Gladden]

It's not easy to provide insight when there is little insight to provide.

Gasper is new to the organization, they want to know what they have.  2B will be revolving until/unless somebody claims it.

Spring stats (especially early spring stats) mean zero for SP.  Barring injury or somebody completely melting down, Paddack and SWR go 4/5 in the rotation.  We will see how that looks in May.

Varland pitching 1 inning at a time may be the most telling part of this article, as it leads us to believe he is being groomed for RP.  Injuries will clean up some decisions here.   Also watch for a trade that allows the Twins to send down Castellano and keep him in the organization.

[tony&rodney]

The biggest news here is that there are still 3 weeks left in March to evaluate the players if that is being done. Gasper at second base - holy crap. He looks just like Vazquez out there. 

[Karbo]

I would send Tonkin and Topa out to keep Alcala and Castellano

[PatPfund]

Great piece!

The bullpen shapes up as you say (as you note the Varland appearances pretty much spell out his new position); the key strategy on Tonkin is probably to waive him at a point maximized for some other team claiming him (and his guaranteed though small contract). I'm not as optimistic on trading for Castellano's rights as others, and the stuff looks great, so (right now) I'd be keeping him as a longer innings eater.

At 2B I'm hoping somebody seizes the hitting bull by the horns (2023 Julien, are you out there?), but if it falls to D the scales probably tip to Castro or Lee. (Though Lee should play a lot even if it means he starts in St Paul.)

Zebby has been even better looking than last year, but barring injury, I'd still start the year with SWR. Festa still looks like he struggles to throw strikes at times (the stuff is great, but he seriously dampens its impact when he takes 60 pitches to get 7 outs). I still expect (barring injury) Matthews and Festa to start at AAA, but maybe Zebby is the first call if current trends hold.

[thelanges5]

I agree with this long-term take on the bullpen from the article:

Twins should prioritize keeping arms in the organization over putting together the most formidable bullpen on Opening Day. Send Alcalá and Topa to St. Paul, which means they’re carrying Tonkin and Castellano at the bottom of the bullpen.

[Western SD Fan]

Here's a question to the intelligence of the group here on Rule 5 for Castellano.  I'm not suggesting that he is hurt right out of spring training.  I'm asking if he suffers a lengthy injury and lands on the 60-day IL which would allow the Twins to take him off the 40-man? Or does he have to stay on the 40-man regardless of injury or be offered back?  I'm not wishing ill will upon him.  Just curious what the rules are on injury.

[DocBauer]

To me it's pretty obvious Gasper is seeing time at 2B to see if he actually play there. He's only made a little over 30 appearances in his entire career. They already know he can play 1B. So this is more of a depth/versatility check than it is a competition for him to start at 2B.

Julien seems to be playing a fair amount if 1B for the same kind of looksee. Can he be a viable offering at 1B? I think Lee winning the 2B is the best outcome. Julien getting his bat back and being a DH/2B/1B option would be awesome. 

SWR has only a single ML season to his credit. And until he ran out of gas at the end, he was solid to good, showing improvement as he went along. I'm not saying he can pitch lousy and keep his job, but a lot of what we see from pitchers in ST, regarding numbers, just don't mean anything. Sometimes a guy throws 5 straight pitches to just work on a feel or a new grip. Sometimes a pitcher throws something he normally wouldn't in certain situations previously because he's experimenting somewhat. I think SWR is still the favorite.

I want the best bullpen I can get and fill in from the minors as needed. But I also understand keeping every available arm and as much depth as possible early in the season. I still think a workable trade with Philadelphia for Castellano makes the most sense. Win-win for both organizations. But if the Phillies are going to demand any kind of over pay, then I guess you just keep the kid and Philadelphia gets nothing. If it comes down to Alcala or Varland for the final spot...I'm guessing Tonkin makes the opening day roster at this point...I might send Varland down to let him be a closer at St Paul and keep Alcala. At least Varland getting time in that role feels justifiable. I don't see what Alcala has to prove to anyone any longer, as long as he's finally used as a powerful 1 inning arm.

 

[Danchat]

Quote

the Twins should prioritize keeping arms in the organization over putting together the most formidable bullpen on Opening Day. 

I disagree, break camp with the best roster possible  - Winning games in April is every bit as important as winning games in August/September. If Castellano isn't going to be a viable option in the pen, either work out a trade for his rights or send him back. And I don't get the fascination with Tonkin, we will be able to find a AAAA reliever like him on the waiver wire at any point in the season. 

[DJL44]

9 minutes ago, Western SD Fan said:

Here's a question to the intelligence of the group here on Rule 5 for Castellano.  I'm not suggesting that he is hurt right out of spring training.  I'm asking if he suffers a lengthy injury and lands on the 60-day IL which would allow the Twins to take him off the 40-man? Or does he have to stay on the 40-man regardless of injury or be offered back?  I'm not wishing ill will upon him.  Just curious what the rules are on injury.

Castellano can go on the 60-day IL. Some players get selected in Rule 5 because they can be stashed on the IL for a season. He needs to be on the active roster for 90 days in total or they'll have to protect him another season.

[DJL44]

4 minutes ago, Danchat said:

I disagree, break camp with the best roster possible  - Winning games in April is every bit as important as winning games in August/September. If Castellano isn't going to be a viable option in the pen, either work out a trade for his rights or send him back. And I don't get the fascination with Tonkin, we will be able to find a AAAA reliever like him on the waiver wire at any point in the season. 

Tonkin pitched better than Varland and Alcala last year. It's anyone's guess which one is better this season.

If you have two pitchers who are about equal, it makes sense to option one and keep the other just for depth reasons.

[terrydactyls]

To me, the most interesting line in the article is:  "Check out my thoughts from earlier in the week..".  There is nothing in this article that hasn't already been covered (ad nauseum).

1.  Who is going to play second?

2.  Who will win the last starting pitcher slot?

3.  Who wins the last two relief pitcher spots?

Wash, Rinse, Repeat

[sweetmusicviola16]

If both Richardson and Paddack are in the rotation together I don't see how the pen will be able to stand up when the two will combine for essentially 9IP in the two starts. And if they are back to back starts? GL on this one. Going to have an exhausted pen imo.

[LambchoP]

Zebby has looked great early on, hopefully his injury is nothing serious.

[RpR]

JULI3N looked like the inept fielder he has always been today.

[High heat]

Probably a prisoner of the ST game Gasper had today (the few that have been available on TV). 
 

but does Gasper have a chance to be the last guy in the bench?  Spell France at 1B and allow you to pinch hit Gasper for Vazquez late in game and Gasper can finish behind the plate.  He would be at an interesting chest piece.

[Danchat]

9 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Tonkin pitched better than Varland and Alcala last year. It's anyone's guess which one is better this season.

If you have two pitchers who are about equal, it makes sense to option one and keep the other just for depth reasons.

Alcala's numbers look similar, if not a bit better, but the Yankees wouldn't have DFA'd Tonkin if he was really pitching that well. Not to mention the Twins usage of the two made it abundantly clear that Alcala is more trusted, he was consistently pitching in games within 3 runs usually around the 6th and 7th inning, whereas Tonkin was a mop-up man, with 54% of his appearances coming in games winning or losing by 4+ runs. Alcala pitched in those situations 17% of the time.

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, High heat said:

Probably a prisoner of the ST game Gasper had today (the few that have been available on TV). 
 

but does Gasper have a chance to be the last guy in the bench?  Spell France at 1B and allow you to pinch hit Gasper for Vazquez late in game and Gasper can finish behind the plate.  He would be at an interesting chest piece.

Yes, I’ve only seen two-plus games, so I probably overemphasize things I’ve actually seen. Gasper had a very good game against the Yankees and looked pretty good at first base to boot. 
 

I don’t think he is a true candidate for more than a bench role, but his versatility and the fact that he switch hits and could be a third catcher might give him an opportunity to get to and stay on the roster.

Lee also had a nice game including a homer against Cole. He’s a switch hitter too. If he can seize second, less platooning is needed and the Twins will have their backup SS on the roster.

OTOH, Julien was 0-4 today and looked bad on an error he made. I guess I see Lee as the narrow front runner at second,  with a tightening race between Julien and Gasper for the DH/1B/2B/PH—the last spot on the roster.

Willi is gonna play a lot regardless and right now it looks like second is a prime spot for him, but an injury or ineffective play could put him in one of many positions. 
 

 

[stringer bell]

While it’s optimum to keep the very best arms on the active staff, reality is that somewhere north of 20 guys will throw innings on this (and every) big league team. Allowing the 14-17 pitchers to be DFA’d is worse than starting one or two guys who look better to be optioned. Last year’s numbers aren’t as telling as the stuff the pitcher currently has.

[Riverbrian]

6 hours ago, stringer bell said:

While it’s optimum to keep the very best arms on the active staff, reality is that somewhere north of 20 guys will throw innings on this (and every) big league team. Allowing the 14-17 pitchers to be DFA’d is worse than starting one or two guys who look better to be optioned. Last year’s numbers aren’t as telling as the stuff the pitcher currently has.

Options are a powerful thing. 

[In My La Z boy]

I must say so far Bader/France & Gasper ALL look good Mr. Falvey 👏 👏

[Otaknam]

“the Twins should prioritize keeping arms in the organization over putting together the most formidable bullpen on Opening Day”. This only makes sense if those arms can help the team. If it’s between Alcala and Tonkin, I’ll take Alcala every day. 

[Guest]

Lee's shown his bat is back.  He therefore becomes the safest choice to start at 2B.  Gasper and Julien both practice plate patience, but Gasper actually displays the ability to control the plate.  Gasper's at-bat vs. Cole yesterday was a thing of beauty. Julien's still in a funk.  Julien to St. Paul and Gasper makes the roster.

[old nurse]

23 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

It's not easy to provide insight when there is little insight to provide.

Gasper is new to the organization, they want to know what they have.  2B will be revolving until/unless somebody claims it.

Spring stats (especially early spring stats) mean zero for SP.  Barring injury or somebody completely melting down, Paddack and SWR go 4/5 in the rotation.  We will see how that looks in May.

Varland pitching 1 inning at a time may be the most telling part of this article, as it leads us to believe he is being groomed for RP.  Injuries will clean up some decisions here.   Also watch for a trade that allows the Twins to send down Castellano and keep him in the organization.

The Phillies reportedly had a high asking price before the rule V draft, more than what the Twins wanted to give up. The Phillies have an aging starting rotation., and a dearth of starting pitching in the minors. Nothing has changed in the Phillies organization talent wise.. the only way the price comes down is if the Phillies are scouting their former prospect and think he will not develop further based on spring training. I don’t think that would occur 

[old nurse]

20 hours ago, Western SD Fan said:

Here's a question to the intelligence of the group here on Rule 5 for Castellano.  I'm not suggesting that he is hurt right out of spring training.  I'm asking if he suffers a lengthy injury and lands on the 60-day IL which would allow the Twins to take him off the 40-man? Or does he have to stay on the 40-man regardless of injury or be offered back?  I'm not wishing ill will upon him.  Just curious what the rules are on injury.

Players on the 60 day do not count against the 40 man roster

[Fire Dan Gladden]

14 minutes ago, old nurse said:

The Phillies reportedly had a high asking price before the rule V draft, more than what the Twins wanted to give up. The Phillies have an aging starting rotation., and a dearth of starting pitching in the minors. Nothing has changed in the Phillies organization talent wise.. the only way the price comes down is if the Phillies are scouting their former prospect and think he will not develop further based on spring training. I don’t think that would occur 

We are talking about a pitcher left off the 40-man roster from an organization that doesn't have much pitching in MiLB.  I understand you are talking about what was reported, but I am having a hard time seeing the asking price being anything more than a low level flier prospect at this juncture.

Castellano has been in the Phillies organization for years, I doubt 3 weeks of Twins coaching is going to change their opinion of him.

I really like the Rule V aspect of baseball.  It helps to ensure that prospects don't spend their entire career trapped.  That being said, the overall impact of acquired players via the Rule V draft is very low.

[DJL44]

59 minutes ago, old nurse said:

the only way the price comes down is if the Phillies are scouting their former prospect and think he will not develop further based on spring training. I don’t think that would occur 

True, but if the Twins like him more now than they did then they might be willing to pay that price.

[Major League Ready]

42 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

We are talking about a pitcher left off the 40-man roster from an organization that doesn't have much pitching in MiLB.  I understand you are talking about what was reported, but I am having a hard time seeing the asking price being anything more than a low level flier prospect at this juncture.

Castellano has been in the Phillies organization for years, I doubt 3 weeks of Twins coaching is going to change their opinion of him.

I really like the Rule V aspect of baseball.  It helps to ensure that prospects don't spend their entire career trapped.  That being said, the overall impact of acquired players via the Rule V draft is very low.

Why bother if you're the Phillies if they are getting next to nothing back.  It would make more sense to force the Twins hand.  Maybe they get nothing but is that really any better than next to nothing.  If I am the Phillies, I take my chances of getting him back rather than taking next to nothing.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

The Phillies reportedly had a high asking price before the rule V draft, more than what the Twins wanted to give up. The Phillies have an aging starting rotation., and a dearth of starting pitching in the minors. Nothing has changed in the Phillies organization talent wise.. the only way the price comes down is if the Phillies are scouting their former prospect and think he will not develop further based on spring training. I don’t think that would occur 

It's not unusual for teams to work out a trade after a Rule-5 pick is made, and now that I think about it I'm not sure why the sound logic you presented here wouldn't apply (in slightly different form to fit circumstances) in the majority of cases.  "No," the original team says, "we like him too.  Give us someone we like just as well."

[Fire Dan Gladden]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

Why bother if you're the Phillies if they are getting next to nothing back.  It would make more sense to force the Twins hand.  Maybe they get nothing but is that really any better than next to nothing.  If I am the Phillies, I take my chances of getting him back rather than taking next to nothing.

That is the way of Rule V.  If the Phillies really valued him, they would have protected him.