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Before the start of spring training, I previewed three positional battles: second base, the rotation anchor, and the final two bullpen spots. Eight games into their spring training season and after weeks' worth of interviews, we are starting to get an idea of how these battles are unfolding.
Second Base
This battle is between Willi Castro, Brooks Lee, Mickey Gasper and Edouard Julien. From a pure playing time perspective, Gasper leads the way with four games played at second, followed by Lee (3), Castro (2), and Julien (1). A few non-roster invitees have gotten into the mix, but none of them really have a shot at making the Opening Day roster. Keeping small samples in mind (and that we don’t put a lot of stock in spring training stats), Gasper is making the most of his opportunity, leading the way with a .665 OPS. In fairness, though, that's just a single point ahead of Julien among the four in this battle. Lee and Castro have struggled mightily, carrying sub-.500 OPSes, but it’s interesting to note that each player’s walk-to-strikeout ratio is at least 1.00. This is something to keep a close eye on for Lee, as Baldelli shared with reporters in a scrum following their spring training opener on Feb. 22 in Fort Myers, Fla.:
“Having quality at-bats and controlling the zone is going to be really important for [Lee], something that challenged him during the season last year and something that is part of his focus going into this year,” Baldelli said.
A week earlier, Lee had this to say regarding his offseason work related to swing mechanics:
“When you have good mechanics, and your swing is quick, you don't have any wasted movements, then you get to make a decision later. While the ball's coming to the plate, you can make a decision late. So that's what I think is a big difference on how I see the pitch and then my swing decisions.”
Many questions remain unanswered here, but as Baldelli intimated at the start of camp, this might be a spot where they simply don't arrive at any one full-time answer—not this month, and perhaps not throughout the season. As was true in 2024, the keystone looks like it will be a merry-go-round of sorts, with Castro likely leading the way. Gasper wasn’t really in the picture (at least mine) a few weeks ago, but he’s making at least a modest case to make the roster, which could have implications for Lee and Julien.
5th Rotation Spot
This battle is between Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, and Zebby Matthews. It was my opinion that Woods Richardson had the edge, purely based on a 2024 performance that saw him carry a sub-4.00 ERA into the final month of the season before he ran out of gas. Funnily enough, Matthews and Festa are the top two in innings pitched (although with 5 and 4 ⅓, respectively), followed by Woods Richardson, who has 4. It’s clear these three will each get an opportunity to crack the Opening Day roster, and from a statistical perspective, Matthews is leading the way with a 7:0 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 0.88 FIP. Festa isn’t far behind analytically, but on the surface, he was knocked around quite a bit in his second outing, allowing six baserunners and four earned runs. As we saw in his rookie campaign, Woods Richardson doesn’t have the bat-missing ability of the other two, and is currently carrying a 6.93 FIP.
There is very little to read into when it comes to hints from the Twins’ skipper, because he’s had nothing but positive things to say about each of the three players in this battle. One potential takeaway is that he has spoken the most about Matthews (which may be more about the questions being asked), and had this to say after his first outing on Feb. 22:
“Yeah, Zebby looked good…his stuff was probably even up a little bit from where we saw it last year in the big leagues.”
That was before his second outing, which was even better: he struck out five of 10 batters faced over three innings. While I think Woods Richardson started with the edge, it’s hard to ignore how Matthews has looked. He might be my favorite to round out the rotation, as it sits today.
Bullpen
This might be the one battle we are getting a clearer picture on. Louis Varland has made four one-inning appearances (in three of which he threw 11 or fewer pitches), and it seems all but guaranteed that he will be in the Twins bullpen on Opening Day. Justin Topa, who was also on the roster bubble, is now dealing with right shoulder tightness, and I already had him pegged to start the year in St. Paul. That leaves Michael Tonkin, Eiberson Castellano, and Jorge Alcalá for the last two spots. Check out my thoughts from earlier this week for a deeper dive on this battle, but here’s the TL;DR version: the Twins should prioritize keeping arms in the organization over putting together the most formidable bullpen on Opening Day. Send Alcalá and Topa to St. Paul, which means they’re carrying Tonkin and Castellano at the bottom of the bullpen.
We know how the Twins work. We’re only going to learn about the “winners” of these battles when roster decisions are formally made. They always hold their cards close, and there’s no reason to think that will change now. That said, spring training performances carry some weight, and we can try to read the tea leaves in interviews to get an idea of where things might be headed.
We’re three weeks out from Opening Day…who do you think wins these battles? What does your Opening Day roster look like? Drop your ideas in the comments and join the conversation!
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